Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

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Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:24 pm

Hello Everyone:

Mel Turner, my friend, fellow Marine and Conference team member, will be handling the duties of moderating the Question & Answer sessions with a number of authors and experts at our upcoming 2018 Bogleheads Conference which takes place October 3-5.

The Expert Panel members include (in alphabetical order):
Christine Benz
Dr. Bill Bernstein
Jonathan Clements
Rick Ferri
Mel Lindauer
Allan Roth

We’re accepting questions for the Experts Panel members from you (and yes, you may ask more than one question). This is your opportunity to ask any question (or questions) about something you’ve always wished you could ask.

Your question(s) may be directed to the entire Experts Panel or to an individual member of the Panel. If you want to direct a question to an individual member, simply start your question with “A question for …..” and fill in the name of the Expert Panel member you’d like to address your particular question to. Otherwise, your question(s) will be directed to the entire Panel.

Please respond with your question(s) right here one this thread.

Fire away!

Best regards,

Mel
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:37 pm

Fellow Bogleheads,

This is Mel Turner (aka TOM, The Other Mel). Just like the two previous years I have the privilege of asking the experts questions at the 2018 Bogleheads Conference. I'll do my best to ask questions that cover the spectrum from the novice through the sophisticated investor. So spare "the experts" no mercy and post any question that you would like addressed. I'll gather them, sort them out and use only the "best-of-the-best."

For those lucky enough to attend this year, I'll see you there.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by TheQuietMan » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:24 pm

I’ve read many threads about different types of safe withdrawal rates on the forum. At this point my head is spinning from too much information! What type of safe withdrawal rate do you (or will you) use with your own money and why?

Thank you,

Andy

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by book lover » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:32 am

What are your thoughts on a medigap plan and being on traditional Medicare versus a Medicare Advantage Plan at age sixty five?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Jiu Jitsu Fighter » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:52 am

Dr. Bill Bernstein:

1. You advocate for a small allocation to precious metal stocks for those who could stomach a very long time of portfolio drag. Since we saw that during the last PM bull market 2000-2011, the metals themselves greatly outperformed an indices of PM stocks due to poor management / late to the party with reversing their hedges / the nature of PM stocks to be bid up as lottery ticket stocks, have you changed your stance at all to owning the actual metal (physical/ETF) instead of these, rather junky stocks.

2. What are your thoughts regarding Vanguard's new factor-based ETFs?

Thank you,
JJF

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:07 pm

TheQuietMan, book lover and Jiu Jitsu Fighter,

Keep those questions coming.

Since I'm in the distribution phase I'm always thinking about my withdrawal rate and I think VG's factor-based ETF will also be questioned.

Please keep the questions coming and I continue to log them all. I hope yours is lucky enough to make it to the panel.

TOM (The Other Mel)
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by triceratop » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:19 pm

To any expert who has a strong opinion on the matter:

Investors making contributions to a personal (taxable) account, especially those with long time horizons such as those very early in their career may be investing for 60-70 years. They must consider an ever-changing landscape in the financial industry with misaligned management incentives and shifting sources of revenue as regulatory regimes change, while the investors' tax "lock-in cost" only increases as time passes. As a concrete example: Vanguard has well-aligned incentives while Blackrock may not despite running excellent funds (e.g. the ultra low cost iShares Core funds were introduced with lower expenses while those investors in identical iShares funds received no fee cut -- famously, the MSCI Emerging Markets ETFs: IEMG vs EEM -- a 0.55% ER difference for funds tracking the same index). The potential for fee increases also looms. How would you advise someone in such a position to evaluate fund selection with this in mind, even for broad-based total market index funds?
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by stlutz » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:06 am

I'm always interested in how people's thinking evolves over time, so:

What is one piece of advice that you've given in the past that you no longer agree with? Why did you change your mind? To narrow the question a bit, please focus on Boglehead-ish advice as opposed to advice you might have given when you worked for a 2-and-20 hedge fund back in the day or when you were writing a market-timing newsletter. :twisted:

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by bobcat2 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:20 am

When helping people plan for retirement do you use the funded ratio to monitor their progress toward reaching their retirement income goal? Please talk about your reasons for using or not using the funded ratio in your work.

Thanks,
BobK
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Banjoman » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:00 pm

What is the status of the Federal Fiduciary Rule and does it have any chance of passage ?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by HIinvestor » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:05 pm

Any suggestions on how to have low cost, broad index fund investing while not having investments in particular industries such as tobacco, weapons, guns, alcohol?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:57 pm

For the Bogleheads community

We just received some exciting news for the Bogleheads Conference on October 3/4/5.

Rick Ferri will be attending the conference and be sitting on the expert panel so you have one more expert to help answer your financial questions.

As a reminder here are the people who will be on the panel:

Christine Benz
Dr. Bill Bernstein
Jonathan Clements
Rick Ferri
Mel Lindauer
Allan Roth

I continue to gather your excellent questions and want to thank all of those who have submitted questions so far. Feel free to address your question to an individual or to the entire group. We all look forward to a memorable conference.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Thu May 10, 2018 2:15 pm

We still are open to any questions you would like asked of the experts at the Bogleheads Conference in October.

Thanks.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Tal- » Thu May 10, 2018 2:24 pm

What role should market valuations (relative to historical norms) play in such safe withdrawal rate assumptions such as the 4% rule?
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Thu May 10, 2018 3:32 pm

Thanks Tal- . It's in the mix.
TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by jojay » Thu May 10, 2018 8:01 pm

Hi and thanks for asking.
As a teacher of Personal Finance, I have always taught my students that long term financial gain will occur via stock bonds mix. I use the rolling 30 year backtesting to portray the value on investing long term. The students' eyes widen.

However, given algorithmic trading, market insecurity, the internet, geopolitics, etc. are we now in a new set of market structures that invalidate history?

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Rick Ferri

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu May 10, 2018 8:55 pm

kupuna wrote:
Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:57 pm
For the Bogleheads community

We just received some exciting news for the Bogleheads Conference on October 3/4/5.

Rick Ferri will be attending the conference and be sitting on the expert panel so you have one more expert to help answer your financial questions.
Bogleheads:

In June, 2002, at a Morningstar Convention in Chicago, Rick Ferri came up to me and said he would like to be added to their panel of experts (3). I knew Rick well and that he probably knew more than anyone on the Morningstar Panel. I asked the panel moderator if Rick could join his experts. He said "no."

I went to the back of the room where Rick was seated and relayed the negative reply. Instead of being offended, Rick said, "Don't worry, I'd rather listen."

Very few people have the desire to help others and know as much about investing as Rick Ferri, author of 9 books on investing including co-author of The Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning.

In my opinion, with the addition of Rick Ferri to our Boglehead panel, you will never find a better "Panel of Experts."

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Thu May 10, 2018 10:07 pm

Thanks for your insight Taylor. I know Rick will appreciate the comments...especially coming from you.

jojay, thanks for the question. And thanks for bringing light to the dark world of investing.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by snarlyjack » Fri May 25, 2018 4:43 pm

When I visit other investment sites for example Seeking Alpha their seems
to be a huge population of dividend investors both in individual stocks &
dividend paying index funds (hundreds if not thousands of investors).

I would like to request the panel discuss dividends & the dividend
strategy. Using Vanguard funds I' am interested in the
High Dividend Yield Index Fund & Dividend Appreciation Index Fund.

I' am sure this conversation would help a lot of investors.

Thank You for your consideration.

Snarlyjack

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by P&C actuary » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:44 pm

Let's say tax-deferred space is filled with taxable bond funds, but is short of the desired bond allocation. Do you suggest a maximum % of the bond allocation or total portfolio allocation to muni bond funds for a high tax bracket investor?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:34 pm

Thanks snarlyjack and P&C actuary.

I'm still gathering questions for the experts at the conference and appreciate your input.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by danielc » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:58 pm

My questions are about asset allocation and they're for the entire panel:

1) Larry Swedroe seems to recommend a very strong tilt toward small cap value, with perhaps as much as 100% of the equity allocation being in the form of small cap value. What does the panel think about that? How much tilt do you think is acceptable, and how much is clearly too much?

2) Last year Jonathan Clements suggested that, due to demographics, emerging markets have more potential for growth in the next half century. The argument was that earnings growth are determined by population growth plus increases in productivity, and the future population growth in the United States will be much lower than it has been in the past. I would like the panel's views on this (including Mr. Clements).

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:23 pm

Thanks for the questions danielc. I also remember when Clements mentioned that emerging markets have better growth potential and it will be good to follow-up on his thinking.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by car733 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:38 pm

if you could automate tax loss harvesting across your accounts, how often would you do it?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Kencsp » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:23 am

jojay wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:01 pm
Hi and thanks for asking.
As a teacher of Personal Finance, I have always taught my students that long term financial gain will occur via stock bonds mix. I use the rolling 30 year backtesting to portray the value on investing long term. The students' eyes widen.

However, given algorithmic trading, market insecurity, the internet, geopolitics, etc. are we now in a new set of market structures that invalidate history?
+1

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by jbranx » Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:31 am

All the panel: There have been four major "drawdowns" in stocks since I started investing in 1970 (73-74, '87, 2001, 2008 etc). Mandelbrot in his book "The Misbehavior of Markets" warned that stocks are far more risky than modern portfolio theory suggests. The number of drawdowns and the percentages suggest that Mandelbrot and Nassim Taleb may have a valid point that Gaussian bell curves give false security about the riskiness of stocks. Your reactions and suggestions for how 1) those in retirement should allocate; and 2) the same for a young investor.

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:09 pm

Thanks to car733 and jbranx for your input. I hope your questions make it to the panel.
TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Ready.Fire.Aim » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:15 pm

How can an investment strategy using a SP500 index fund ( VINIX) still be valid with only ten companies (FAANGS) dominating index earnings?

No longer is risk of loss spread amongst 500 companies, changes in a few tech companies significantly affects the index.
Thus a key benefit of a stock index fund is greatly diminished.


Reference:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... half-gains
"David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, highlighted that more than 100 percent of the S&P 500’s total return of nearly 3 percent in the first half is attributable to just 10 equities. Amazon.com Inc. alone accounts for roughly two-fifths of the benchmark gauge’s advance"

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:12 am

Thanks Ready.Fire.Aim. And thanks for including the reference.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Miriam2 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:16 pm

For the panel -

Is there any problem or difficulty you can see if an investor ends up at retirement with a large Roth IRA and no Traditional IRA with mixed pro rata and no pre-tax 401k?

In other words, if a millennial today rolls his 401k over into a Rollover IRA and then converts it all to a Roth IRA, and continues to do so throughout his working life, will there be any problems with this strategy come retirement time?

Please assume no onerous tax liability upon conversion 8-)

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:27 am

For the panel -

Fidelity has issued two funds with a 0.0% expense ratio - a total market index fund and an international fund.

Should I move all of my investments over to Fidelity?

(This discussion is generating quite a bit of interest in the forum. See: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds))
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:47 pm

Miriam2,

Thanks for the question about having everything in a Roth at retirement.


LadyGeek,

We can always depend on you for a great question. It's hard to compete with zero cost.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:06 pm

The Bogleheads Conference just keeps getting better!

For all those attending the Bogleheads Conference on 3/4/5 October we just received exciting news. Jason Zweig has agreed to attend and will be sitting on the "Panel of Experts" to respond to submitted questions. I'm sure he, along with the other authors, will be willing to sign any books your bring along.

So now our distinguished Expert Panel will consist of (in alphabetical order):
Christine Benz
Dr. Bill Bernstein
Jonathan Clements
Rick Ferri
Mel Lindauer
Allan Roth
Jason Zweig

So please keep submitting questions for the individual panelist (including Jason) or to the panel as a whole.

We look forward to seeing everyone.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by rjbraun » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:28 pm

All else equal, should one diversify the institutions where his or her assets reside? Assuming one already has an account (or accounts) at Vanguard, which other institution(s) should one consider and why?

Thank you.

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Campcoffee » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:05 pm

My first post as a BH, so I hope this doesn't sound too silly.
What scenarios could unfold in the market in the next 40 years that would demonstrate BH principles unsound? Where are the chinks in the armor? What do staying-the-course BH's worry about?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Campcoffee » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:06 pm

My first post as a BH, so I hope this doesn't sound too silly.
What scenarios could unfold in the market in the next 40 years that would demonstrate BH principles unsound? Where are the chinks in the armor? What do staying-the-course BH's worry about?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:01 pm

rjbraun,
That is a great question that should certainly be considered. Thanks for submitting it.

Campcoffee,
Welcome to the forum. A great question and definitely not silly. Some skepticism is always healthy. Thanks for taking the time to submit it.

A small fact about our Bogleheads Conference this year is that 31 states and 3 countries will be represented.

Keep those questions coming.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by rjbraun » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:05 am

Vanguard has clearly experienced tremendous growth in assets in the recent past. Posters have relayed problems, quite significant, at times, that they have encountered with fund companies, including Vanguard. What can personal investors watch for proactively to make sure their fund companies are well-managed and will continue to be worthy stewards of their hard-earned capital?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:34 pm

rjbraun. Thanks again for another question.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Mr.BB » Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:09 pm

I would like to know the panel feels about Global Bonds.
A) Should they be part of a person's portfolio (Why or why not)?
B) What percent of a person's overall bond portfolio would they recommend being in Global Bonds?
C) How do they feel Global Bonds would with rising interest rates and in a possible recession?

Thank you
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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by FiveK » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:09 am

Is there any defensible reason (other than mandatory FICA tax) for a company to limit 401k contributions of non-Highly Compensated Employees to some arbitrary percentage?

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by kupuna » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:09 pm

Mr.BB - Thanks for the questions. I know that Global Bonds will be part of the discussion during the conference.

FiveK - Thanks for taking the time to present the question about 401(k) contribution limits. My understanding is that IRS regulations set the contribution limit and restrictions. The reason for a certain percentage might be one of those regulation mysteries. Thanks again for the questions.

For All - We are coming to an end of the time to submit questions for our expert panel at the Boglehead Conference. There have been some excellent questions that I am sure will be asked. On Sunday, September 16th, we plan on shutting this tread down. Thanks to all. For those attending the conference, we look forward to seeing you on October 3.

TOM
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." Sir Isaac Newton

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by FiveK » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:12 pm

kupuna wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:09 pm
FiveK - Thanks for taking the time to present the question about 401(k) contribution limits. My understanding is that IRS regulations set the contribution limit and restrictions.
Yes, there is an IRS limit on contribution amount, but that is not the question.
The reason for a certain percentage might be one of those regulation mysteries.
There should be no mystery, and I believe there is no good reason for an employer-imposed percentage limit, particularly on non-HCEs. Of course, that's just my belief and thus the question to the Experts Panel. :)

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:57 pm

Mel Turner has gathered your questions and is now assembling them and priotizing them so we can cover the widest range of the most important questions.

Mel won't be taking any more questions. This thread is now locked.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:46 pm

This thread is now removed as a "sticky" and won't appear at the top of the forum any more.
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