AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

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Alexa9
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AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Alexa9 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm

What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.

n00b590
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by n00b590 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:24 pm

..
VTI

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Kalo
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Kalo » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:34 pm

It may be impossible to outsmart the market, but if it is possible, it's more likely to be done with stocks that are not highly followed by street analysts. I would be looking at small cap value issues. If I want the return from mega caps then I would buy mega caps funds or ETFs.

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Nicolas
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Nicolas » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:38 pm

More likely some company we’ve never heard of or that doesn’t exist yet.
Last edited by Nicolas on Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

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rob
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by rob » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:42 pm

I'll go Worldcom, Lehman and Washington Mutual.....
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Silverado
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Silverado » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:50 pm

Purely from the standpoint of 'will they exist in 20 years ' without regard to stock, i would order them Google, Amazon, Apple from highest chance to lowest.

whether they remain close to their current position in my VTSAX, we will have to see.

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Alexa9
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Alexa9 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:55 pm

Silverado wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:50 pm
Purely from the standpoint of 'will they exist in 20 years ' without regard to stock, i would order them Google, Amazon, Apple from highest chance to lowest.

whether they remain close to their current position in my VTSAX, we will have to see.
I'm not sure how Google even makes money other than selling your data and ad revenue.
I see Amazon as the most valuable with their online marketplace changing shopping forever. Walmart, eBay, and Costco don't come close IMO.
I like Apple but they seem to be running out of ideas without Steve.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Helo80 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:18 pm

If I had to take an all or nothing wager on those three for best returns after 20 years, I'd go with Amazon. To me, they are the most diversified and are trying to grow well beyond their current reach. E.g. grocery, shipping, pharmaceutical

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Dominic » Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:28 pm

Apple, then Google, then Amazon. I'm basing this purely on valuation ratios. I think Amazon is priced way too high to return as well as the market, and Google is almost as bad on that front. Apple is valued pretty reasonably.

That said, I'd never buy stock in any of them directly. I'll take what Vanguard's total stock market index gives me.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by BogleMelon » Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:40 pm

neither any of these, it is probably a company that hasn't been born, or so small that we know about it.
Last edited by BogleMelon on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by anil686 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:41 pm

My feeling is that none of the three will be huge in 20 years (just a hunch) as tech is moving super fast and disruption is happening everywhere. But - if I had to rank them - Google>Amazon>Apple - Google has branched out effectively in areas that have allowed them to be major players in:
A) web/mail
B) Devices (chrome book licensing/App Store), phones, now google WiFi
C) Android apps/ecosystem
D) You tube TV with a studio in You Tube red and an amateur studio that is developing stuff all the time - YouTube really entering the cable market

I can see them being the tech/entertainment complex I thought Apple would have been 10 years ago - but that seems to be passing Apple by IMHO...

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by honduranhurricane » Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:46 pm

Own all three individually and in indexes. Very happy with them. That said, not sure I will own them for 30 years. Amazon seems to have so much room to grow but the EV/EBITDA does scare me, way out of my wheelhouse for typical stocks I hold.

Thankfully most of my investing is in indexes now, thank you forum,,,,but I still enjoy picking stocks with 5-10% of overall portfolio.

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munemaker
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by munemaker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:33 pm

Why not invest in a low cost equity index fund instead of betting on one stock?

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by kjvmartin » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:25 pm

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:55 pm
Silverado wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:50 pm
Purely from the standpoint of 'will they exist in 20 years ' without regard to stock, i would order them Google, Amazon, Apple from highest chance to lowest.

whether they remain close to their current position in my VTSAX, we will have to see.
I'm not sure how Google even makes money other than selling your data and ad revenue.
I see Amazon as the most valuable with their online marketplace changing shopping forever. Walmart, eBay, and Costco don't come close IMO.
I like Apple but they seem to be running out of ideas without Steve.
I don't think it's the lack of Steve. They plan *far* in advance and most of what we see today is a product of Steve & Co. or at least had his blessing. Apple can't possibly continue to do what they've done, but they're far from going extinct.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by ericmc » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:37 pm

In order of value in 20 years AMZN > GOOG > AAPL. I don't foresee Apple to continue to garner such price premiums in large quantities for smartphones as they become more of a commodity.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by haban01 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:40 pm

VTI

VTI

VTI

Skip the individual company risk.
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by LFKB » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:41 pm

I own three individual stocks - Google, Amazon and NVIDIA. I like the 10-15 year prospects with all of them.

Google - dominant search position making bets in the right areas - cloud, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, etc

Amazon - only about 9% of sales done online today. I think that goes to 50% eventually and they benefit by far more than any other. They are also super aggressive and quick moving despite their size and don’t seem to be plagued by big companyitis. They also have a dominant position in cloud with AWS which is growing like crazy

I am most skeptical about Apple maintaining their dominance forever, but Buffett believes in them and who am I to second guess him.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by LFKB » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:44 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:18 pm
If I had to take an all or nothing wager on those three for best returns after 20 years, I'd go with Amazon. To me, they are the most diversified and are trying to grow well beyond their current reach. E.g. grocery, shipping, pharmaceutical
I love Amazon, but Google is much more diversified in my view. They play in online advertising, search, home devices (Google Voice, Nest, etc), YouTube/media, cloud, have a venture capital arm, autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence, etc.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by aristotelian » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:46 pm

I would add Facebook. Then the question is, hardware, commerce, search, or social? I could easily see scenarios for each colonizing the others, but I would go with search because information is the key to all of them. AMZN's P/E is so crazy I also think it is the worst bet from a valuation standpoint. I am admittedly an Android/Linux guy, but I do not get why people pay the premium for Apple products. Eventually people will realize they do not need to spend $1000 for a phone. Everything on FB is political and annoying. I would go with GOOG.
Last edited by aristotelian on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Flobes
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Flobes » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:47 pm

I'm sticking with Enron, undeniably the industry leader with the greatest management!

LFKB
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by LFKB » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:52 pm

It seems a lot of people in this thread don’t fully understand how diversified Amazon and Google are. AWS and Amazon Media may be worth $200 billion (mostly from AWS) and Waymo (autonomous cars) and YouTube may be $100-$200 billion.

Basically, there are segments within these businesses that some people don’t even realize exist that on their own would be some of the largest companies in the world.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by mortfree » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:18 am

How about VGT (Vanguard tech fund)?

I own Apple and google, going on 11 years or so. I’ll hold them.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by fennewaldaj » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:18 am

I think if I was going to buy an individual tech stock it would be samsung. That sub 10 PE looks mighty appealing. I would never even think of buying amazon outside of an index fund at that PE. Google and Apple actually look somewhat reasonable (at least by the standards of everything being expensive.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:48 am

Flobes wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:47 pm
I'm sticking with Enron, undeniably the industry leader with the greatest management!
And voted the World's Most Admired Company several years running.

Subject of a number of Business School Case Studies. And McKinsey reports. It is The Utility of The Future. It's taken boring old gas pipelines and electricity networks and turned it into the dominant player in financial trading of energy.

Its Chairman, Ken Lay, is enormously influential in Washington and with the state GOP.

CEO Jeff Skilling graduated from Harvard Business School (like the President, GWB), worked for McKinsey.

They really are "the smartest guys in the room".

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:49 am

fennewaldaj wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:18 am
I think if I was going to buy an individual tech stock it would be samsung. That sub 10 PE looks mighty appealing. I would never even think of buying amazon outside of an index fund at that PE. Google and Apple actually look somewhat reasonable (at least by the standards of everything being expensive.
You should then also look at TSMC. Not sure what the PE is. But it benefits from any move towards more silicon chips in anything.

The problem for Samsung is it is a branded consumer products manufacturer, but they cannot get a premium for their brands. Shades of Sony.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:55 am

aristotelian wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:46 pm
I would add Facebook. Then the question is, hardware, commerce, search, or social? I could easily see scenarios for each colonizing the others, but I would go with search because information is the key to all of them. AMZN's P/E is so crazy I also think it is the worst bet from a valuation standpoint. I am admittedly an Android/Linux guy, but I do not get why people pay the premium for Apple products. Eventually people will realize they do not need to spend $1000 for a phone. Everything on FB is political and annoying. I would go with GOOG.
The Apple ecosystem is in principle safer to use. Malware is going to be *the* issue of the next 20 years on the internet (along with manipulation of news/ popularity). Thus Apple's high-cost-and-we-control-it real estate could be relatively protected, and thus more valuable. Apple has managed to do, it seems, what Microsoft tried to do, and did not succeed. MSFT nailed the business market, but not the consumer one. And it turned out the consumer one was more valuable, and could be used to penetrate the business one - I see business execs with iphones, and retail assistants with ipads.

I had an Apple Mac (a "Fat Mac" w 512k RAM) in the mid 1980s, and have since never really used an Apple product. So I don't inherently "get" the appeal. But it's quite real.

And the company has that amazing balance sheet and seems able to fend off suggestions that it just pay it back to shareholders.

The reliance on digital advertising is likely to prove dangerous for Alphabet and for Facebook. They cannot keep stealing revenue from other media channels at the same rate, thus calling into question their valuations.

On the metric of "new, fancy, name-brand architect HQs mean death" then all 3 companies are in serious trouble. The new Apple plex does not work for its engineers-- the triumph of the open plan philosophy over productivity.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:57 am

rob wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:42 pm
I'll go Worldcom, Lehman and Washington Mutual.....
Nortel has to be on that list. World's largest telecoms equipment maker (by market cap at least). 25% of the Canadian index.

When you have invested in those let me tell you about Bre-X (one of the world's largest gold producers by market cap) and SinoForest (ditto in Chinese forestry) ...

Valleant (Canadian pharmaceutical manufacturer and serial acquirer, much touted by Bill Ackman of Pershing, run (like Enron) by a McKinsey graduate) is another interesting stock story ...

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:06 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
My suspicion is they, and Facebook, will all underperform.

Digital advertising is beginning to look like a plateau. One because the benefits are not as great as touted (in terms of customer targetting) and two because they can't keep taking media spend from all the other channels, at the same rate. The valuations of Alphabet and Facebook are extreme. A third risk is political risk--they've become too powerful.

Note user attention time and engagement is declining in FB's most mature markets.

In reality what Google within Alphabet, and FB, are are public utilities. Natural monopolies that beg for regulation. The Chinese, say, are already treating them that way. The Europeans probably will in time, too. There is a nationalism dimension, too, as these are American companies.

Amazon makes a poor return on invested capital. Eventually the stock market will demand a higher one. It cannot keep investing at the current rate, without generating better returns. BTW I said that when the stock was about 1/4 of its current price, too.

Apple is interesting because I cannot feel why it gets a premium for its products. But it does. And its (theoretically?) greater ability to protect against malware is going to be hugely important. And it has that balance sheet.

If you look at the evolution of the Radio Industry in the 1920s, the TV industry, the fixed line phone industry or the electricity network industry, all in the first half of the 20th century, you can see that the internet is going along similar lines-- towards government regulated oligopoly. Tim Wu's book (which I have not read all of) is really good on this.

It's probably also worth (re)reading "The Space Merchants" for a satiric (but chilling) view of what happens when advertising agencies take over the world-- because that's where we are getting to with digital media cos (Fred Pohl & Cyril Kornbluth). It was probably funnier when it was written in the 1950s than it is now.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Tamarind » Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:04 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
All of them will, over the next 20 years, expand into a variety of new fields, fight each other for control of existing fields, and (most importantly) be disrupted by younger companies. This should not affect one's investment choices, as the market winner is not always the stock market winner. Total Stock Market funds will capture the actual performance of all three, plus whoever comes up to join/replace them.

There are only two reasons to care about which becomes "ascendant" in a field:

1) You're looking for a consumer tool they compete to make and need to choose. Personally I enjoy the Alphabet design and ecosystem, but hope that interoperability becomes more common.

2) You believe that deregulation will lead to a societal battle of the titans a la "Demolition Man" and want to show your loyalty in advance by getting the winner's logo tattooed on your forehead. Choose carefully. :beer

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Toons » Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:09 am

Mcdonalds
:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by angelescrest » Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:19 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
Sorry, but the real bet on these big three were the LAST twenty years, not the next. Your assumptions here are problematic, because at this point most of the growth has occurred, and it’s when every financial institution has already invested heavily in them. You need to find (assuming you can) the next disruptor. Good luck.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:35 am

angelescrest wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:19 am
Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
Sorry, but the real bet on these big three were the LAST twenty years, not the next. Your assumptions here are problematic, because at this point most of the growth has occurred, and it’s when every financial institution has already invested heavily in them. You need to find (assuming you can) the next disruptor. Good luck.
Also this is all Developed World stuff.

With demographics, DW consumption growth is likely to be sluggish if even positive* - Japan is an instructive case as the world's oldest society, already.

That means growth has to come at the expense of existing incumbents. Alphabet and FB already dominate the digital advertising world and there is a limit to how much more revenue they can steal (and they are coming under scrutiny by various governments for monopoly power). Amazon can grow, but it is hitting some of the same limits-- government action. It also has to keep investing at a huge rate to keep growing market share -- eg its programming budget against Netscape, Disney etc.

As to Emerging Markets. None of these is as strong in China as they are in developed markets. And they face government restrictions and strong local incumbents. Other EM we shall see, but the challenge is different. The market for $1000 iphones is inherently limited in India, say - incomes are just not that high.

* except for things like healthcare.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Top99% » Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:52 am

I think *as stocks* the best years are behind these companies for reasons others have stated. Once you dominate the TAM (total addressable market) growth is limited by growth of the TAM and that growth and so much more seems priced into these stocks. If I *had* to pick one I would start by elimination:
1) AAPL - dependent on being "in fashion" and what is in fashion can change very quickly. Just look at how quickly Tesla stole BMW's mojo in this area. People don't want to own what their parents own so I suspect the next generation will find Apple products as cool as this generation finds Buicks.
Now it gets harder.
2) Amazon. Walmart and Costco won't go down without a fight and will keep margins low. Most of the markets Amazon has been spreading to (groceries) have very thin margins and slow growth.
That leaves Google. No obvious competitors.

Would I bet but on or against any of the 3? Not a chance. I will bet on Mr Market to get it right.
Adapt or perish

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by broslami » Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:38 am

Amazon is best positioned. Valuation cannot be judged by EPS. These guys continue to reinvest all cash flow.

Then barely slightly behind is Google. Cash machine + brilliant technology.

Apple is great. Still really cheap despite run up in prices. Cash on hand is sick.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by broslami » Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:42 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:06 am
Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
My suspicion is they, and Facebook, will all underperform.

Digital advertising is beginning to look like a plateau. One because the benefits are not as great as touted (in terms of customer targetting) and two because they can't keep taking media spend from all the other channels, at the same rate. The valuations of Alphabet and Facebook are extreme. A third risk is political risk--they've become too powerful.

Note user attention time and engagement is declining in FB's most mature markets.

In reality what Google within Alphabet, and FB, are are public utilities. Natural monopolies that beg for regulation. The Chinese, say, are already treating them that way. The Europeans probably will in time, too. There is a nationalism dimension, too, as these are American companies.

Amazon makes a poor return on invested capital. Eventually the stock market will demand a higher one. It cannot keep investing at the current rate, without generating better returns. BTW I said that when the stock was about 1/4 of its current price, too.

Apple is interesting because I cannot feel why it gets a premium for its products. But it does. And its (theoretically?) greater ability to protect against malware is going to be hugely important. And it has that balance sheet.

If you look at the evolution of the Radio Industry in the 1920s, the TV industry, the fixed line phone industry or the electricity network industry, all in the first half of the 20th century, you can see that the internet is going along similar lines-- towards government regulated oligopoly. Tim Wu's book (which I have not read all of) is really good on this.

It's probably also worth (re)reading "The Space Merchants" for a satiric (but chilling) view of what happens when advertising agencies take over the world-- because that's where we are getting to with digital media cos (Fred Pohl & Cyril Kornbluth). It was probably funnier when it was written in the 1950s than it is now.
Yep digital ad is a plateau: https://www.emarketer.com/Article/US-Di ... ar/1014469

Mostly everything you said was wrong here, but that's ok.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by jdb » Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:49 am

All my equity investments are in Vanguard funds except for four stocks which have happily owned past 6 years. These are three of them. But the one that has done the best, and which I would ride next 10 years if only had one, is TSLA. And yes, the short sellers through their periodic forced margin buy backs have been a boon to the shareholder value. Good luck.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:06 am

broslami wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:42 am

Yep digital ad is a plateau: https://www.emarketer.com/Article/US-Di ... ar/1014469
But can it keep going? I saw some estimates (Schumpeter in the Economist from memory, but could have been Lex in the FT) about what the share prices are discounting in terms of further share gains and they were pretty optimistic. Unless we think ad spend to GDP can keep growing?
Mostly everything you said was wrong here, but that's ok.
Since you present no arguments, that's not a rebuttal it's "random guy on the internets" talk.

So I raise you one "your rebuttal is wrong".

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by aqan » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:51 am

All three. Throw in MSFT and TSLA as well. Can’t go wrong with an tech etf either.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:14 pm

The time traveler gets out in 1960 and overhears...

"Control Data, Burroughs, or Digital Equipment Corporation? What is your bet for the next twenty years?"

"Well, I'd have to say Burroughs has the most advanced computer architecture, especially because ALGOL is the computer language of the future and they're the only ones with architecture that's specially designed for ALGOL. But I'd give the nod to Digital Equipment Corporation. But don't limit yourself to computers, don't forget Xerox, Eastman Kodak and Polaroid. You can't go wrong with any of them."

P.S. Please forgive me for using company names instead of ticker symbols.
Last edited by nisiprius on Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:29 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Texanbybirth » Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:17 pm

Toons wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:09 am
Mcdonalds
:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
I've been telling people to buy McDonalds for 4 years now. Thankfully, nobody listens to me and I can't buy it myself.

I'd buy Amazon, to answer OP's question. :beer

Darth Xanadu
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Darth Xanadu » Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:37 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:18 pm
If I had to take an all or nothing wager on those three for best returns after 20 years, I'd go with Amazon. To me, they are the most diversified and are trying to grow well beyond their current reach. E.g. grocery, shipping, pharmaceutical
+1 :beer
"A courageous teacher, failure is."

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Toons
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Toons » Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:48 pm

Texanbybirth wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:17 pm
Toons wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:09 am
Mcdonalds
:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
I've been telling people to buy McDonalds for 4 years now. Thankfully, nobody listens to me and I can't buy it myself.

I'd buy Amazon, to answer OP's question. :beer

:thumbsup
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by jminv » Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:51 pm

Amazon. They're still interesting and have an attractive offer to consumers. I'd change my bet if Bezos is no longer involved day to day.

Google and apple need some intervention. I use both's products extensively but they're not innovating anymore to the extent they could. Sure google has waymo but who knows how that will actually turn out for them and apple is eventually going to move into the health space (the watch will eventually call 911 if you have a heart attack, etc and warn you before that ever happens to see a doctor ala preventitive medicine) but they've been uninspiring for the last few years.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by cantos » Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:51 pm

I like and invest in Amazon, Google, and Facebook. Have used Apple products and don't like being stuck in the ecosystem so I don't bet on what I don't use.

To the naysayers who cite Enron, Nortel, etc., no offense but you are out of your mind if you think they are comparable. Virtually everyone in north america, inclusing you, use Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, etc. If you don't, there is at most one degree of separation to someone you know who does.

At the same time disrupters aren't islands for long; they get bought out by the Faang giants. See youtube, instagram, whatsapp. Also see the raw power these cos have in influencing politics and life around the globe, along with what you eat, buy, and experience.

The question isn't where these cos will be in 20 years. It is what part of you and your children's lives can survive without them.

VTI+faang to the extent you answer that question.

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Watty
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Watty » Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:37 pm

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
It will be very hard for any of those companies to double in size much less get ten times bigger.

Twenty years ago;
Nokia has the cell phone industry on lock.
Amazon has book sellers concerned.
Yahoo has the internet on lock.

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nisiprius
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:32 pm

cantos wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:51 pm
...To the naysayers who cite Enron, Nortel, etc., no offense but you are out of your mind if you think they are comparable. Virtually everyone in north america, inclusing you, use Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, etc. If you don't, there is at most one degree of separation to someone you know who does...
Well, the examples I used--Control Data, Burroughs, Digital Equipment Corporation, Xerox, Eastman Kodak, and Polaroid--would have all met that criterion.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

RRAAYY3
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:39 pm

i'm thinking of buying all 3

and another 9000+ companies in 2 low cost index funds.

thoughts?

Momus
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Momus » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:53 am

Index is already overweighted in tech... 25% in tech.

Nate79
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Nate79 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:09 am

In 20 years I think 1 out of 3 will be either out of business or in deep trouble. Which one, who knows.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by rob » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:12 am

cantos wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:51 pm
To the naysayers who cite Enron, Nortel, etc., no offense but you are out of your mind if you think they are comparable. Virtually everyone in north america, inclusing you, use Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, etc. If you don't, there is at most one degree of separation to someone you know who does.
When I grew up shooting film in the 70's.... virtually everyone in a big chunk of the world shot Kodak either religiously or at least regularly (sure Fuji and Pacific had diehard fans also)... You could buy it at little shacks on the edge of the world, You could not walk the street of any major city in the world without seeing the colored K on every block. If you didn't there was at most one degree of separation to someone who did. They were in secret programs in space and had their own nuclear reactor.

The scale and impact of some of these companies has been lost with time because you see the shell they became on the tail end.....
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien

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