Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

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an_asker
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Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am

So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018. Then I went back in time to see when this last happened - found out that our net worth last fell in the month of 10/2016. That means that not once in the year 2017 did our net worth go down in comparison to the previous month. Do you know how special that is*?

I have been keeping track of our net worth for a couple of decades now (well, since 2000 to be exact). 2016 is the only year, let me repeat - the ONLY YEAR - since I started keeping track of our net worth, that we did not have even one month of the year where our net worth went down!

I wonder how many years that has happened in history. Though I have a smorgasbord of investments, surely our net worth somewhat reflects the markets (except for down payments where I didn't do a good enough job of tracking the resulting real estate bump in net worth maybe?).

*disclaimer: It all depends on our investments and how I tally net worth, but I am pretty sure this would apply to most folks!

Moderators, please feel free to move to other forum if you think it is better posted elsewhere...

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AtlasShrugged?
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by AtlasShrugged? » Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:16 am

an_asker....I share a similar outlook on 2017. It 'felt' sort of like 95-99, minus all the craziness and stupidity (i.e. quitting job to day trade, etc). Everything last year just 'clicked'. Last year, I felt like my money worked as hard for me as I did to earn it. A mutually reinforcing thing. It was great.

Here is what I will also say: I have never seen such a great market so unloved by it's participants.

It brings to mind an article written by Larry Swedroe sometime last year. In the article, he argued that you should not let your personal or political bias determine your investing. And boy, was he right. I made that mistake once. In 2013, I became convinced that the market was headed for a big correction. So what did I do? I parked all of my 401K in a money market. You know what happened? The S&P has a spectacular year! Boy, was I dumb! I have done the 'head smack' about a million times since then. :oops: :oops: :oops:

I found the Bogleheads in 2015, and I have never looked back. And my portfolio performance (amazingly positive) reflects this. The Bogleheads 'Ecosystem' and participants have contributed greatly to my knowledge. I am profoundly grateful.

You know what....Here is hoping that that this year, and the next several years are even more special! :mrgreen:
โ€œIf you don't know, the thing to do is not to get scared, but to learn.โ€

annielouise
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by annielouise » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:01 am

It was a good year. Still, if you calculated your next worth on the 10th or 20th of the month, you may have had months where it dropped, and, perhaps, other years that never dropped. It's all very subjective.

What was remarkable for us, after pulling together the last 10 years of budgets onto one spreadsheet, is that in 2017, we (a) spent the most money and (b) had the lowest federal income tax.

We did, however, have months were our net worth dropped.

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Cyclesafe
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by Cyclesafe » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:26 am

In the 109 months since I have kept track of my end of month net worth it has gone down 35 times. In that period, however, my net worth has more than doubled.

I think one's month-to-month performance is unique to one's situation. As for the future hope for the best, but plan for the lackluster.

henry
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by henry » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:42 am

I track my portfolio month to month also. February's not over yet but is on track to be my first down month since October 2016. I've had 15 straight months of "up" months since then. Longest streak of "up" months since I started tracking in 2007. I'm contributing to my nontaxable accounts and taxable accounts every month which certainly accounts for a lot of the "up" months but yeah, it sure was nice to see. Very different from 2015, when 8 months out the 12 were "down" months for me.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by CyclingDuo » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:47 am

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am
So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018. Then I went back in time to see when this last happened - found out that our net worth last fell in the month of 10/2016. That means that not once in the year 2017 did our net worth go down in comparison to the previous month. Do you know how special that is*?

I have been keeping track of our net worth for a couple of decades now (well, since 2000 to be exact). 2016 is the only year, let me repeat - the ONLY YEAR - since I started keeping track of our net worth, that we did not have even one month of the year where our net worth went down!

I wonder how many years that has happened in history. Though I have a smorgasbord of investments, surely our net worth somewhat reflects the markets (except for down payments where I didn't do a good enough job of tracking the resulting real estate bump in net worth maybe?).
1995 to early 2000 was pretty special as well. The S&P returns, not to mention many individual stocks, created a lot of wealth.

1995 returned 37.58%
1996 returned 22.96%
1997 returned 33.36%
1998 returned 28.57%
1999 returned 21.05%
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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k66
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by k66 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:53 am

Excluding new contributions, my portfolio achieved a month/month "new high" seven times in 2017. For 2016 and 2015, it was five times and twice respectively. Since I have been tracking these data (~8 years), the average is ~44% (or typically 5.3 months per year with new highs).

Here's to another '17! :sharebeer
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

david1082b
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by david1082b » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:54 am

I read that a few years in the past had 11 out of 12 months positive for S&P 500, while last year was the first time all months were positive. Just a random thing that can happen, it was bound to happen eventually. There was a time when no year had seen 11 months out of 12 positive (or even 10), and then it happened. There will be more years like last year again eventually. Just like the second-longest bull market in history was once the longest, the longest record can also be broken and probably will be, given enough time.

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Sandtrap
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by Sandtrap » Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:33 am

Interesting topic.
Thanks for posting it.
Given that last year was "special".
How "special" or "un-special" will the "coming" year be?

j :D

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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:56 am

My magic 8 ball is broken

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cfs
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by cfs » Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:57 am

Yes 2017 was great, the T-rally moved at full speed leaving a lot of non-believers in the dust. Good luck with your investments y gracias por leer / cfs
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

am
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by am » Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:26 am

As I gain more experience with investing (boglehead 10+) yrs, I have added another certainty: no one can predict the future. I have tuned out the noise and stick to my plan. Despite occasional urges to change allocation, add something, speculate, I almost always resist now given my experience and participation on this forum.

an_asker
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:53 pm

Thanks for the responses. I just felt this was something special, so posted. The only actionable item from this is that a) it is likely a good thing to track one's net worth for historical trend purposes and b) staying on course will always do good to net worth :-)

Besides that, I do realize that there are other factors that impact net worth such as one time outflows for expenses that, if timed right, might move net worth down compared to previous month even when everything else (i.e., the market, etc) was positive. Also, I realized that there is a chance that I failed to properly account for real estate assets (house worth) back in the 2000s, especially right after when we closed on our house, which might have skewed my results a bit! Oh well ... either way, 2017 was a nice year. Hope we have a few more, just like - as someone pointed out - the late 1990s which I (unfortunately for me) didn't participate in. Didn't know about the stock market ... and didn't have a net worth of any significance anyway!

barnaclebob
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by barnaclebob » Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:59 pm

The last net worth decrease I had on a month to month basis was 2/2016 and we have gone from just over 1mm to 1.7mm in that time. Its hard to say whether I had a net worth decrease in 1/2018 because a lot of money was moving around for house purchase and sale. We had gone under contract for a price which would more than cancel out the stock market losses but I think I was still assuming my old valuation method until the money hit our account. I am up in net worth from 12/4/2017 though.

KSActuary
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by KSActuary » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:12 pm

the market was positive every month in 2017. May have something to do with it.

JoeRetire
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:18 pm

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am
So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018.
That's odd. January was a terrific month. Now February on the other hand...
Then I went back in time to see when this last happened - found out that our net worth last fell in the month of 10/2016. That means that not once in the year 2017 did our net worth go down in comparison to the previous month. Do you know how special that is*?
That's "special" in a statistical oddity way, but I don't see any real value in it. Month over month net worth doesn't mean much to me. It's where I start and where I end up that is important. If it goes down a few times in the middle but still ends up at the same point or higher, I'm okay with that.
Last edited by JoeRetire on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

an_asker
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:19 pm

JoeRetire wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:18 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am
So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018.
That's odd. January was a terrific month. Now February on the other hand...
My bad. Should've said 02/2018! :oops:

JoeRetire
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:21 pm

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:19 pm
JoeRetire wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:18 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am
So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018.
That's odd. January was a terrific month. Now February on the other hand...
My bad. Should've said 02/2018! :oops:
And yet February isn't even over! :twisted:

an_asker
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:23 pm

JoeRetire wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:21 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:19 pm
JoeRetire wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:18 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am
So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018.
That's odd. January was a terrific month. Now February on the other hand...
My bad. Should've said 02/2018! :oops:
And yet February isn't even over! :twisted:
Fingers crossed. Let's see if we can add 3-4% by COB tomorrow! :sharebeer

itstoomuch
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by itstoomuch » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:32 pm

Yes I do realize how special 2017 was to our retirement.
Our future Incomes is + 10%, locked in.
Rev012718; 4 Incm stream buckets: SS+pension; dfr'd GLWB VA & FI anntys, by time & $$ laddered; Discretionary; Rentals. LTCi. Own, not asset. Tax TBT%. Early SS. FundRatio (FR) >1.1 67/70yo

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by CyclingDuo » Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:42 pm

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:53 pm
Oh well ... either way, 2017 was a nice year. Hope we have a few more, just like - as someone pointed out - the late 1990s which I (unfortunately for me) didn't participate in. Didn't know about the stock market ... and didn't have a net worth of any significance anyway!
Consider this year as year 2 of the 1995 to 2000 run that you missed. 8-)

https://www.joefahmy.com/2017/04/29/mar ... rmedbroker

As you'll read in that link, the bull market began in 2013. There was a mid-2015 to mid-2016 bear market, and the move out of that was really what 2017 was. Nothing repeats exactly the same, but coming out of a 13 year secular bear market in 2013 is the type of generational opportunity (why you are seeing global growth) that is turning out well thus far for investors.
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:51 pm

AtlasShrugged? wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:16 am
an_asker....I share a similar outlook on 2017. It 'felt' sort of like 95-99, minus all the craziness and stupidity (i.e. quitting job to day trade, etc).
I saw people on reddit doing that because of bitcoin/altcoins. 20x returns just on buying at the beginning of 2017 and selling in December, and some people touting 100x returns from swing trading.

There were quite a few posts on /r/financialindependence because of crypto.

mega317
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by mega317 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:05 pm

Stocks are down like 2% from Feb 1. Bonds around 1%. That's a beating?

staythecourse
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by staythecourse » Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:49 pm

mega317 wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:05 pm
Stocks are down like 2% from Feb 1. Bonds around 1%. That's a beating?
I finally did our numbers for the month to figure out where the new money is to go and was surprised how little the month made a difference. After reading this forum for over the month of Jan. I expected to see a lot less in our accounts. Guess what, not much of a difference. Mind you I'm 100% equities and still not impressed with the change. I'm no more worried it went down then the months it went up. Think I have finally come to the point I really don't care what happens on a year to year basis to my portfolio.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.โ€ | -Jack Bogle

JoeRetire
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:28 pm

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:23 pm
JoeRetire wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:21 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:19 pm
JoeRetire wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:18 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am
So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018.
That's odd. January was a terrific month. Now February on the other hand...
My bad. Should've said 02/2018! :oops:
And yet February isn't even over! :twisted:
Fingers crossed. Let's see if we can add 3-4% by COB tomorrow! :sharebeer
Yeah, today's results made that even more unlikely.

Sidney
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by Sidney » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm

Except for taxes there really isn't anything special about the calendar year vs. any other consecutive 12 month periods. So my question is, was this the first time there has been a consecutive 12-month increase?
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

WanderingDoc
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by WanderingDoc » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:58 pm

Curious, how do you guys track net worth. Assets - liabilities, do you use Personal Capital or manually? I think using PC would be easy but I noted it has real estate values that are wrong.. in the ballpark but still wrong.
Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate, and wait. | Rent where you live, buy where others pay your mortgage for you.

an_asker
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:25 pm

WanderingDoc wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:58 pm
Curious, how do you guys track net worth. Assets - liabilities, do you use Personal Capital or manually? I think using PC would be easy but I noted it has real estate values that are wrong.. in the ballpark but still wrong.
I knew something actionable would come out of this thread ;-)

I track net worth the old fashioned way - I use Excel. Yes, it is work; yes, folks would say it is too time consuming. But hey, it is my hobby. You don't have to always make money on a hobby :-)

I enter numbers into the spreadsheet from the monthly statements. For the real estate, I just use a ballpark figure. I'm not too worried about accuracy on those. Like I said, I'm OK with being off on the net worth, as long as I've a good general idea of where it is headed. But I do verify that the statements are reflected accurately of course!

an_asker
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:26 pm

Sidney wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Except for taxes there really isn't anything special about the calendar year vs. any other consecutive 12 month periods. So my question is, was this the first time there has been a consecutive 12-month increase?
I doubt very much that that is the case. Someone else also commented that the late 1990s were very good increases, so I am sure there would've been other consecutive increase 12-month periods in the past.

mega317
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by mega317 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:31 pm

Sidney wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Except for taxes there really isn't anything special about the calendar year vs. any other consecutive 12 month periods. So my question is, was this the first time there has been a consecutive 12-month increase?
There really isn't anything special about the calendar month vs any other consecutive 30 day period. So I think the important question is was this the first time there has been 12 consecutive 30 day increases?

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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by AlohaJoe » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:36 pm

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:26 pm
Sidney wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Except for taxes there really isn't anything special about the calendar year vs. any other consecutive 12 month periods. So my question is, was this the first time there has been a consecutive 12-month increase?
I doubt very much that that is the case. Someone else also commented that the late 1990s were very good increases, so I am sure there would've been other consecutive increase 12-month periods in the past.
Looks like there have been 6 other 12-month periods with no loss. The last time was 1994-95; then 1982-83; then 1957-58; 1953-54; 1949-50; 1942-43.

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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by aristotelian » Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:52 pm

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:04 am
So, I was just doing a cursory check of net worth and confirmed what I knew already - net worth was taking a beating for the month of 01/2018. Then I went back in time to see when this last happened - found out that our net worth last fell in the month of 10/2016. That means that not once in the year 2017 did our net worth go down in comparison to the previous month. Do you know how special that is*?
Yes, the market went up every single month of the year. That is why people started making leveraged bets on low volatility.

an_asker
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:57 pm

AlohaJoe wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:36 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:26 pm
Sidney wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Except for taxes there really isn't anything special about the calendar year vs. any other consecutive 12 month periods. So my question is, was this the first time there has been a consecutive 12-month increase?
I doubt very much that that is the case. Someone else also commented that the late 1990s were very good increases, so I am sure there would've been other consecutive increase 12-month periods in the past.
Looks like there have been 6 other 12-month periods with no loss. The last time was 1994-95; then 1982-83; then 1957-58; 1953-54; 1949-50; 1942-43.
Didn't realize this has happened only six times in a whole century. That's more special than I originally stated, I thought - but it is about par for the course, based on my observations :-)

youdiditr2
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by youdiditr2 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:27 pm

I just added up my #'s and didn't even realize how close I am to being a Millionaire! Started with $700k in 2017 and added up the #'s tonight and I'm sitting close to $900k. Damn, if only I stay invested in SP500 instead of gambling on individual stocks, I would have been a millionaire already! My Traditional IRA was $120k and now it's $15k thanks to gambling on Rite Aid stock...ALL OF IT. Oh well, live and learn!

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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by peterinjapan » Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:54 pm

Yes, I was up nearly $500k last year, what with stocks going up and me retiring debt/paying down my mortgages.

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AtlasShrugged?
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by AtlasShrugged? » Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:43 am

I saw people on reddit doing that because of bitcoin/altcoins. 20x returns just on buying at the beginning of 2017 and selling in December, and some people touting 100x returns from swing trading. There were quite a few posts on /r/financialindependence because of crypto.
Let me answer you this way. In every large sample (the universe of people investing), the law of averages pretty much dictates there are going to be a few total dummies. What I see with Bitcoin is nothing like what I saw in the late 90's. Not even remotely close. The late 90's were totally crazy, IMHO. But I sure would love to have those returns in the 2 years before I retire, and the first three years after. :moneybag
โ€œIf you don't know, the thing to do is not to get scared, but to learn.โ€

an_asker
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by an_asker » Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:23 pm

an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:57 pm
AlohaJoe wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:36 pm
an_asker wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:26 pm
Sidney wrote: โ†‘
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Except for taxes there really isn't anything special about the calendar year vs. any other consecutive 12 month periods. So my question is, was this the first time there has been a consecutive 12-month increase?
I doubt very much that that is the case. Someone else also commented that the late 1990s were very good increases, so I am sure there would've been other consecutive increase 12-month periods in the past.
Looks like there have been 6 other 12-month periods with no loss. The last time was 1994-95; then 1982-83; then 1957-58; 1953-54; 1949-50; 1942-43.
Didn't realize this has happened only six times in a whole century. That's more special than I originally stated, I thought - but it is about par for the course, based on my observations :-)
Wow! Per news channels (online and offline), the last time we had a 15-month stretch with no down months was in 1959!! Looks like we had it better than even I had figured. Oh well, back to the phase of accumulating more shares.

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randomizer
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by randomizer » Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:30 pm

2017 was good. My returns were 19.6%.

(Next best year for me before that was 2013, when I got returns of 17.2% โ€” unfortunately for me, though, my net worth was close to zero at that point, so the percentage didn't really make much of a difference.)

For reference, other years: 7.4% in 2014, -2.2% in 2015, and 8.3% in 2016.
87.5:12.5, EM tilt โ€” HODL the course!

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midareff
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Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Post by midareff » Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:35 pm

Nearly as special as 2010, and nearly the same as 2012, 2013.

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