"The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

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Taylor Larimore
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"The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:50 pm

Bogleheads:

One of my favorite writers is Jonathan Clements who is very knowledgeable and writes simply and clearly. Mr. Clements is an author and has written over 1,000 columns for the Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Clements writes a free newsletter called Humble Dollar which I subscribe to (below is a link from his latest newsletter).

Jonathan's newsletter article dated February 6, was written just after the S&P 500 declined 4 1/2 percent and many Bogleheads were scared because no one knew how much lower it would go. His article titled, "The Morning After," is full of sound advice to remember when the market drops again (as it certainly will).

http://www.humbledollar.com/2018/02/the-morning-after/

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

cegibbs
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by cegibbs » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:04 pm

Hi Taylor,

Thanks so much for this information. I really enjoy his WSJ columns. Just subscribed to his free newsletter. I really appreciate you sharing this information.

I just recently subscribed to James Stack’s InvesTech Newsletter which is a paid subscription. May call on Monday for a refund. Are you familiar with this newsletter and are any worth paying for a subscription?

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iceport
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by iceport » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:10 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:50 pm
Jonathan's newsletter article dated February 6, was written just after the S&P 500 declined 4 1/2 percent and many Bogleheads were scared because no one knew how much lower it would go. His article titled, "The Morning After," is full of sound advice to remember when the market drops again (as it certainly will).
Thanks Taylor. That was a timely and calming article. A companion piece was written 3 days later on February 9, as the carnage continued:

Taking Stock
SO WE’RE ALL POORER, RIGHT? The S&P 500-stock index has fallen 10.2% over the past nine trading days. Yet all we’ve done is give back a sliver of the huge gains notched since 2009. My contention: Not only is much of the handwringing unjustified, but arguably it’s also wrongheaded.
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:30 pm

iceport:

Thank you for the follow-up article.

I selected two of Mr. Clement's books for inclusion in my "Investment Gems" where Bogleheads can read many of his valuable excerpts. These are the links:

Jonathan Clements Money Guide

You've Lost It. Now What?

Enjoy!

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:44 pm

cegibbs wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:04 pm
Hi Taylor,

Thanks so much for this information. I really enjoy his WSJ columns. Just subscribed to his free newsletter. I really appreciate you sharing this information.

I just recently subscribed to James Stack’s InvesTech Newsletter which is a paid subscription. May call on Monday for a refund. Are you familiar with this newsletter and are any worth paying for a subscription?
cegibbs:

At one time I was an investment newsletter junkie. I subscribed to several, wrote one myself, and I visited the Miami and Ft. Lauderdale libraries each month to read their many newsletter subscriptions.

What did I learn? I learned that no one can forecast the stock market or winning funds (except by luck).

I suggest you save your time, money, and perhaps a big mistake. I'd ask for a refund.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Mel Lindauer
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:53 pm

FWIW, Jonathan will be with us again this year for the 2018 Bogleheads Conference. He'll be on the Q&A with the Experts Panel and will also be signing books an chatting with attendees during the book-signing session.

See you there!
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by Miriam2 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:14 pm

Mel Lindauer wrote: FWIW, Jonathan will be with us again this year for the 2018 Bogleheads Conference. He'll be on the Q&A with the Experts Panel and will also be signing books an chatting with attendees during the book-signing session.
This is wonderful news! Jonathan Clements is delightful to talk to and has a very solid perspective on personal finance.

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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by iceport » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:20 am

Jonathan Clements just published a third article in what could easily be considered an excellent trilogy:

1. The Morning After (2/6/2018)

2. Taking Stock (2/9/2018)

3. Tales to Be Told (2/17/2018)

An interesting action item for the next crash from the latest article that I hadn't considered until now, as I am just recently retired:
9. Conversion therapy. Otherwise known as “lemons into lemonade (part II),” writers urge investors to take advantage of the depressed stock market by converting their traditional IRA to a Roth. With share prices down sharply, the resulting tax bill would be similarly shrunken. Shell-shocked investors shake off their paralysis just long enough to send the writers yet more hate mail.
I've gotten accustomed to seeing multitudes of tax-loss harvesting threads during sharp downturns. I'll have to start looking out for Roth conversion threads next time. That could be an equally tax-savvy move that hadn't been on my radar.

(Keep 'em coming, ink-stained wretch! :wink: )
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by Sandtrap » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:06 am

Thanks for posting, "Taylor". Great article!
I am a fan of Clements.
Signed up for his newsletter just now.
Thanks for the link.
aloha,
jim :D

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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by fishandgolf » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:15 am

If you happen to follow Facebook, Mr. Clements frequently posts (daily) articles and information......he is one of the reasons I signed up on FB.

https://www.facebook.com/ClementsMoney/

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Rob5TCP
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by Rob5TCP » Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:39 pm

It was a good article - I was not aware he had the newsletter.
Thank you for the link.

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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by rockonhumblepie » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:20 pm

Thank You for the link and info Taylor.

I never get nervous because it's only money, but I do like great insights.

I signed up and am feeling twice as " Humbled " 8-) rockon'

JBTX
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by JBTX » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:35 pm

Interesting he now advocates 40-50% international. I tend to agree, but that certainly isn’t a universally held BH view

His advice is always sound and solid and as indicated calming and much better than most of the financial porn out there. Having said that more often than not I don’t feel like I typical learn much new from him. I guess some people need to be reminded of these basic principles on a daily basis.

I haven’t read any of the books. Do any of them offer anything new and insightful?

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iceport
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by iceport » Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:02 pm

JBTX wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:35 pm
His advice is always sound and solid and as indicated calming and much better than most of the financial porn out there. Having said that more often than not I don’t feel like I typical learn much new from him. I guess some people need to be reminded of these basic principles on a daily basis.
Jonathan Clements' excellent advice shouldn't be compared to financial porn at all. Though at times he bucks conventional wisdom, his arguments arise from a solid base of knowledge with an intent to generate light, not heat. For the most part, he offers basic advice written for small investors that don't make a hobby out of investing. He is not writing for financial professionals or investing geeks, as a Larry Swedroe or a Micheal Kitces might. So it makes sense that an avid Boglehead might not find much new to chew on.

With that said, here a couple of thoughts in defense of Clements. First, there can be enormous value in repeating basic truths. Clements has written something to the effect that he saw his mission while a columnist was to write essentially the same 10 or so columns (or whatever number he used) over and over again in such a way that readers would think they're all different. At the bottom of the Great Recession, after he had left the Wall Street Journal for a gig at Citigroup Global Markets, he offered this summary in a one-off column: "Remember how, in 1,009 columns, I told you to consider risk, diversify globally, keep costs low, buy index funds, rebalance regularly and save diligently? Now, let me tell you again." Whether it reveals my lack of sophistication or just my human nature, I find that I benefit from the repetition — especially when the market tests my resolve. I find that same repetition of basic truths here on this forum, and it was one of the biggest factors in my having the guts to rebalance into the 2008/2009 crash (and thereby avert disaster and boost my returns markedly).

Second, while the advice might be basic and the writing surprisingly concise, knowledgeable investors can usually recognize it as an accessible distillation of more complex concepts. And with careful reading, it's not unusual to find a fresh perspective or new way of describing an old concept.
JBTX wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:35 pm
I haven’t read any of the books. Do any of them offer anything new and insightful?
It's all relative. If you've read even a handful of books on the Bogleheads reading list, you won't find too much new. But the same thing could probably be said of most any other "next pick" off the reading list. I've probably read far fewer investing books than most here on the forum, but the vast majority of them just reinforced what I had already learned. That fact won't stop me from reading another. But if you're looking for something along the lines of Bernstein's The Intelligent Asset Allocator (which I still haven't read, but know only by reputation), you'll be disappointed. Again, Clements' books are intended more as accessible summaries of important concepts for small investors. They are excellent, clearly written books that I highly recommend for great introductions into the world of do-it-yourself investing, much like Bogle's own books.

One of his relatively unique areas of interest of late is in happiness research, and how it relates to money. This topic can be fascinating, and Clements' glimpses of insight could pique one's interest in further reading.
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

JBTX
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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by JBTX » Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:16 pm

iceport wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:02 pm
JBTX wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:35 pm
His advice is always sound and solid and as indicated calming and much better than most of the financial porn out there. Having said that more often than not I don’t feel like I typical learn much new from him. I guess some people need to be reminded of these basic principles on a daily basis.
Jonathan Clements' excellent advice shouldn't be compared to financial porn at all. Though at times he bucks conventional wisdom, his arguments arise from a solid base of knowledge with an intent to generate light, not heat. For the most part, he offers basic advice written for small investors that don't make a hobby out of investing. He is not writing for financial professionals or investing geeks, as a Larry Swedroe or a Micheal Kitces might. So it makes sense that an avid Boglehead might not find much new to chew on.

With that said, here a couple of thoughts in defense of Clements. First, there can be enormous value in repeating basic truths. Clements has written something to the effect that he saw his mission while a columnist was to write essentially the same 10 or so columns (or whatever number he used) over and over again in such a way that readers would think they're all different. At the bottom of the Great Recession, after he had left the Wall Street Journal for a gig at Citigroup Global Markets, he offered this summary in a one-off column: "Remember how, in 1,009 columns, I told you to consider risk, diversify globally, keep costs low, buy index funds, rebalance regularly and save diligently? Now, let me tell you again." Whether it reveals my lack of sophistication or just my human nature, I find that I benefit from the repetition — especially when the market tests my resolve. I find that same repetition of basic truths here on this forum, and it was one of the biggest factors in my having the guts to rebalance into the 2008/2009 crash (and thereby avert disaster and boost my returns markedly).

Second, while the advice might be basic and the writing surprisingly concise, knowledgeable investors can usually recognize it as an accessible distillation of more complex concepts. And with careful reading, it's not unusual to find a fresh perspective or new way of describing an old concept.
JBTX wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:35 pm
I haven’t read any of the books. Do any of them offer anything new and insightful?
It's all relative. If you've read even a handful of books on the Bogleheads reading list, you won't find too much new. But the same thing could probably be said of most any other "next pick" off the reading list. I've probably read far fewer investing books than most here on the forum, but the vast majority of them just reinforced what I had already learned. That fact won't stop me from reading another. But if you're looking for something along the lines of Bernstein's The Intelligent Asset Allocator (which I still haven't read, but know only by reputation), you'll be disappointed. Again, Clements' books are intended more as accessible summaries of important concepts for small investors. They are excellent, clearly written books that I highly recommend for great introductions into the world of do-it-yourself investing, much like Bogle's own books.

One of his relatively unique areas of interest of late is in happiness research, and how it relates to money. This topic can be fascinating, and Clements' glimpses of insight could pique one's interest in further reading.
Thanks for the follow up. This all makes sense. And for the record I wasn’t suggesting JC was financial porn, but I was contrasting his writings to that of financial porn in wsj and other such periodicals, although my use of “other financial porn” confused the matter.

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Re: "The Morning After" by Jonathan Clements

Post by ClaycordJCA » Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:12 pm

Thank you for posting, Taylor. I was not aware of Mr. Clements’ blog, newsletter or Facebook page and have now subscribed/followed. I really enjoy his writing and insights.

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