I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

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MaggieMay
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I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:00 pm

I've been on the site for quite some time soaking up knowledge, and trying to piece together a strategy for investing a bunch of cash accumulated from a new high paying income with 401ks, Roth, deductible IRA, HSA, and emergency fund maxxed out, and how best to deal with multiple retirement accounts. But that's another story.

I've been reading about different investing theories: Bogleheads, dividend investing, Permanent Portfolio (and variations), market timing (I just know I should get out while I'm ahead...in my thoughts), and finally just started to agree with Mark Cuban about not investing at all unless you have inside information. What's been frustrating me about investing (especially now with a lot of extra $) is my anger and faithlessness about market investing since losing 40-50% of my accumulation in my first solid 100% equity 401k in 2000, and currently have deed to a home bought at the bubble height -- guess what. And just today, I found out that I had lost another 40-50% in 2008 in that old 401k and didn't know it.

My "expert" investment method consisted of sticking random dollars in 401K, choosing the fund with the cheapest ER, which were always index funds (I heard Warren Buffet a few times), and highest lifetime return. Until this past month, I had very little to no knowledge about AA, IPS, equity vs. bond vs. fixed income vs. short-term, taxable and tax-advantaged accounts, tax efficiency, and the differences in retirement accounts. And I needed this knowledge to figure out what to do next with all my cash - MM?, CD?, mattress? I sure wasn't excited about investing in stocks because i was soured on it -- and scares me to death going through another 40-50% loss, only to look at the pitiful 401k's Personal Rate of Return on their website. What was I doing? This is insane! Why in the world would I think about sticking another $90K in the market at this time?

So today, I decided to REALLY figure out how much money I wasted in the market over 22 years by going back and retracing my cost basis, just to prove to myself that the market sucks, and Mark Cuban is right. Stay the hell out of the market. I began investing around 1996 with a rollover into the now old 401K account in early 2000. I didn't have all my records on my personal contributions, so the best I could do was start out with a statement that says I made 71.28% for the ending 3 years, and I hadn't made it to 5 years for a percentage yet. So from that I extrapolated what I thought to be my original, hard-earned money into the market, and continued my yearly analysis of how much money I should've just stuck in my mattress.

Looking at yearly statements, I found:
  • Rollover to 401k in early 2000
  • Yep, there's the horrendous drop in 2000-2001
  • Oh, goody, I'm back to even 6 years later! What a waste -- I could've just kept the money under my mattress
  • Yay. I've actually made a few % since I rolled over. Imagine that.
  • But GD! Another 40-50% drop in 2008! (Hadn't looked at market/statement ever, so I didn't even know until today it dropped so much this time. Another point for Mark)
  • And then up again, and then down again..sis boom bah. I accumulated nothing more than my original rollover. Ok, well, MAYBE 5% better than I was 11 years ago??!!! Still CDs safer (Where's the really pissed off Smilie???)
  • Oh...wait... up, up, and up... hmm, let me figure this out
After running my initial estimate cost basis with my current 2/09/2018 value in the investment over 22 years, I had an average of 8.49% return each year on this old, lazy, 401K.

So what do I know now for sure about investing in the market? Still nothing. I got lucky, I hope that the market is up when I'm ready to retire and not have to worry if I can stick it out another 15-17 years to feel good if the market really tanks again, should I take the money out and put it in my mattress, should I never look at a statement again until I retire in about 17 years (doubtful), should I stop looking at SPX on Marketwatch, should I stop trying to equity invest and learn to dividend invest, or should I go all in 100% equity since I was able to make it through before -- would I be as lucky or does my new knowledge REALLY help anything? Again, I know nothing.

I wish I could say the moral of the story is that lazy investing, set-it-and-forget it, stay the course, or just plain "get your money in there!" method really works. It did in this case, and maybe some of you can use it as a data point. I can also say for sure that this 10% drop feels like nothing but a buying opportunity, and if I was sure I have the time, I probably could weather another 40-50% drop, but still don't know about lump summing it and taking that chance.

DISCLOSURE: This analysis was just one of my 401ks. I did invest $40K in the last few days -- maxed out Roth 2017/2018, put an Int'l Index fund in a new taxable account since I'm light on International, bought a REIT in my HSA, and I moved some domestic index funds to speculate on $5K worth of company stock. I'm sure I'm gonna need some help soon. :sharebeer

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Alexa9
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by Alexa9 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:46 pm

You look like a good candidate for Vanguard Lifestrategy Moderate Growth with auto-investment from your checking account.
Don't even look at it until you're 65. This will help you avoid tinkering with asset allocation, market timing, stress, anxiety, etc. Invest you must, time is your friend, impulse is your enemy.

Cyclesafe
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by Cyclesafe » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:51 am

Cuban could indeed be right about individual stocks.

Anyway, you obviously know far more about investing than you imply. Allocating among low-cost funds such that one can sleep, reallocating if thresholds are breached, changing tack only rarely and then in very small increments, and otherwise ignoring the noise is a fulsome strategy - about as good as one will get, baring acting on inside info and a stay in federal prison.

No one knows more about the market than Mr./Ms. Market him/her/them self. And the more one knows about how different smart people have tried for a hundred years to model and otherwise understand the market, the more one realizes that "no one knows nothing".

I come to this forum daily, but more and more I scroll through the posts without opening any of them. Occasionally there's a nugget, usually a creative restatement of the mantra. but I just don't think there's likely to be anything new that's actionable.

OTOH, I could be wrong.

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David Jay
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by David Jay » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:01 am

I think you have good instincts. I believe that if you can internalize the principle of asset allocation (i.e. how to manage risk and reward), especially as you move towards retirement, then you will be just fine.

Don't forget all the information on the Wiki. Here is the Wiki on asset allocation: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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David Jay
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by David Jay » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:09 am

A few years ago a major broker did a study of their active accounts versus "forgotten" accounts. These were accounts with no contributions,withdrawals or trades in, like, 10 years.

These forgotten accounts outperformed similar accounts that were "active".
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

Bastiat
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Joined: Thu May 26, 2016 11:07 am

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by Bastiat » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:37 am

MaggieMay wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:00 pm
I've been reading about different investing theories: Bogleheads, dividend investing, Permanent Portfolio (and variations), market timing (I just know I should get out while I'm ahead...in my thoughts), and finally just started to agree with Mark Cuban about not investing at all unless you have inside information. What's been frustrating me about investing (especially now with a lot of extra $) is my anger and faithlessness about market investing since losing 40-50% of my accumulation in my first solid 100% equity 401k in 2000, and currently have deed to a home bought at the bubble height -- guess what. And just today, I found out that I had lost another 40-50% in 2008 in that old 401k and didn't know it.

My "expert" investment method consisted of sticking random dollars in 401K, choosing the fund with the cheapest ER, which were always index funds (I heard Warren Buffet a few times), and highest lifetime return. Until this past month, I had very little to no knowledge about AA, IPS, equity vs. bond vs. fixed income vs. short-term, taxable and tax-advantaged accounts, tax efficiency, and the differences in retirement accounts. And I needed this knowledge to figure out what to do next with all my cash - MM?, CD?, mattress? I sure wasn't excited about investing in stocks because i was soured on it -- and scares me to death going through another 40-50% loss, only to look at the pitiful 401k's Personal Rate of Return on their website. What was I doing? This is insane! Why in the world would I think about sticking another $90K in the market at this time?
What makes you "agree with Mark Cuban about not investing at all unless you have inside information"? Surely not the hundreds of millions of people who have invested profitably despite no inside information.

If all you look at is the downside - ignoring the greater upside - of course you are going to be angry and faithless. There is no such thing as a free lunch. That's kind of like being upset about soreness and occasional injury from working out while ignoring the health and physical benefits.

shawndoggy
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by shawndoggy » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:55 am

confused here... are you complaining about getting an 8.49% rate of return while admitting you didn't really do anything strategically or on purpose? That seems pretty darn good to me and nothing to complain about in the big scheme of things. I think what your are noticing is that that's an average rate of return over a long period and that for some periods you get little growth, other periods you lose, and then there are times (like the last two years) where you basically get meteoric growth unpredictably. All of those average out in the end and you've done pretty well.
I got lucky, I hope that the market is up when I'm ready to retire and not have to worry if I can stick it out another 15-17 years to feel good if the market really tanks again
I'm actually hoping kinda the opposite.... that I'm confident enough to retire in a down market. For those who could've afforded to retire in 2001 or 2009, downturns notwithstanding, they've done just fine in retirement. Only being able to pull it off if the market is on a peak is what worries ME.

sambb
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by sambb » Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:32 pm

Go with life strategy moderate and check back in 10 years.

lostdog
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Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by lostdog » Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:29 pm

Great story. Thank you and well done.

:sharebeer
"Time in the market is better than timing the market" -Toons | 60/40 US/International -Vanguard Recommendation

MaggieMay
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:30 pm

Cyclesafe wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:51 am
Cuban could indeed be right about individual stocks.

Anyway, you obviously know far more about investing than you imply. Allocating among low-cost funds such that one can sleep, reallocating if thresholds are breached, changing tack only rarely and then in very small increments, and otherwise ignoring the noise is a fulsome strategy - about as good as one will get, baring acting on inside info and a stay in federal prison.

No one knows more about the market than Mr./Ms. Market him/her/them self. And the more one knows about how different smart people have tried for a hundred years to model and otherwise understand the market, the more one realizes that "no one knows nothing".

I come to this forum daily, but more and more I scroll through the posts without opening any of them. Occasionally there's a nugget, usually a creative restatement of the mantra. but I just don't think there's likely to be anything new that's actionable.

OTOH, I could be wrong.
Thank you for taking the time to respond. And thank you for the compliment; definitely everything I've learned thus far I credit to the Bogleheads forums. The only thing I really knew was low ER and index fund and that I probably should try to get the full employer 401k match. I'm pretty good with math, research a lot, and learn quickly though. I sure didn't know about AA, reallocating, and how to even change tack until Bogleheads. Well, I hope it wouldn't come down to prison :) , but I'm hoping one day I'll feel a bit more confident and excited about putting my money in the market, but right now it's still all scary.

MaggieMay
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:35 pm

Alexa9 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:46 pm
You look like a good candidate for Vanguard Lifestrategy Moderate Growth with auto-investment from your checking account.
Don't even look at it until you're 65. This will help you avoid tinkering with asset allocation, market timing, stress, anxiety, etc. Invest you must, time is your friend, impulse is your enemy.
I've not heard of that, but I'll definitely take a look. Thanks! I hear ya about time, but it seems like the timing could be tricky if you don't have a plan if the markets really stink when you need to liquidate for income, but I've got some time to research some more.

MaggieMay
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:50 pm

David Jay wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:01 am
I think you have good instincts. I believe that if you can internalize the principle of asset allocation (i.e. how to manage risk and reward), especially as you move towards retirement, then you will be just fine.

Don't forget all the information on the Wiki. Here is the Wiki on asset allocation: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
Thanks for the response and the support. I think that the "instincts" I have are really a result of what I've learned at BH. I've taken the CalcXML risk quiz, and looked at the 3-fund portfolio + REIT (because it sounds pretty cool and a bit more diversification and I needed to invest my HSA in something), and I like the idea of having less funds makes it easier to invest. Definitely, right now I'm trying to buy/move stuff around for such an allocation to get me started. I actually think I could do the research and learning if I wanted to try a different investing method, but I'm not convinced yet that it would provide any better piece of mind than what I've learned here.

MaggieMay
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Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:55 pm

David Jay wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:09 am
A few years ago a major broker did a study of their active accounts versus "forgotten" accounts. These were accounts with no contributions,withdrawals or trades in, like, 10 years.

These forgotten accounts outperformed similar accounts that were "active".
Oh really? I hadn't seen that - but that's great that someone has really looked at it. If anyone has similar stories, please share or I'll do some searches. I'm sure that anyone here who's been investing over the long haul probably already learned/knows what I just found out. But I was hoping my story from being totally ticked off to recognizing that maybe the market isn't that bad using what I think is BH principles can help someone off the fence, or calm someone down who has time and not fret about this week's drop - or even a really bad case of future drop. I'm still on the fence, but I'll keep internalizing and hoping to feel a bit more steady.

MaggieMay
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:56 pm

lostdog wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:29 pm
Great story. Thank you and well done.

:sharebeer
So glad you liked it! With the time I spent going down memory lane, and the surprise I got with such a good outcome, I had to share. Glad you weren't too bored or annoyed at the length. :sharebeer

TheBogleWay
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by TheBogleWay » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:38 am

MaggieMay wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:30 pm


Thank you for taking the time to respond. And thank you for the compliment; definitely everything I've learned thus far I credit to the Bogleheads forums. The only thing I really knew was low ER and index fund and that I probably should try to get the full employer 401k match. I'm pretty good with math, research a lot, and learn quickly though. I sure didn't know about AA, reallocating, and how to even change tack until Bogleheads. Well, I hope it wouldn't come down to prison :) , but I'm hoping one day I'll feel a bit more confident and excited about putting my money in the market, but right now it's still all scary.
I hope I don't hijack your thread, but I was reading your thread and read this post... basically, I feel like I'm a younger version of you. As in.. I may not have the knowledge you have on a few things. Care you tell me in laymens terms what I'm missing out on?

I know about a lazy 3 fund portfolio (I use about 60% total US, 30% total international, and 10% bond)

I know about low ER, 401k matches, and I use a backdoor roth IRA every year.

The things I'm not as confident in:

Reallocating, is this the same as rebalancing? Which, from my understanding, is just making sure I stick with my original 60/30/10 plan? If that's all it means, I get that I should keep those percentages.

Not entirely sure what you mean by AA, I figured that means asset allocation but I'm not sure what you mean by that, I thought that was a term to describe where my assets or stocks are.

I'm not sure what you mean by "change tack".

All I know is to keep contributing, keep my original 60/30/10 ratio (at least for now), use my 401k by maxing it, max Roth IRA, and that's about it. Anything major that I could be missing?

MaggieMay
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:51 am

shawndoggy wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:55 am
confused here... are you complaining about getting an 8.49% rate of return while admitting you didn't really do anything strategically or on purpose? That seems pretty darn good to me and nothing to complain about in the big scheme of things. I think what your are noticing is that that's an average rate of return over a long period and that for some periods you get little growth, other periods you lose, and then there are times (like the last two years) where you basically get meteoric growth unpredictably. All of those average out in the end and you've done pretty well.
I got lucky, I hope that the market is up when I'm ready to retire and not have to worry if I can stick it out another 15-17 years to feel good if the market really tanks again
I'm actually hoping kinda the opposite.... that I'm confident enough to retire in a down market. For those who could've afforded to retire in 2001 or 2009, downturns notwithstanding, they've done just fine in retirement. Only being able to pull it off if the market is on a peak is what worries ME.
Ha ha! I'm complaining that my positive, surprising return should've allayed my fears on investing at all, even when I lost big and was able to come out of it -- albeit it took about 15-17 years. I still have the urge to hide the upswing money in my mattress (okay, CDs) right now. The big thing for me is getting to the "afford" to retire in a downturn, and with me starting so late (marriage that caused my career to stall moving so much, husband that tried to spend every dime, divorced with nothing but a lower salary for my age/education), I have a lot of catching up to do.

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djdube525
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by djdube525 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:20 am

TheBogleWay wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:38 am
I hope I don't hijack your thread, but I was reading your thread and read this post... basically, I feel like I'm a younger version of you. As in.. I may not have the knowledge you have on a few things. Care you tell me in laymens terms what I'm missing out on?

I know about a lazy 3 fund portfolio (I use about 60% total US, 30% total international, and 10% bond)

I know about low ER, 401k matches, and I use a backdoor roth IRA every year.

The things I'm not as confident in:

Reallocating, is this the same as rebalancing? Which, from my understanding, is just making sure I stick with my original 60/30/10 plan? If that's all it means, I get that I should keep those percentages.

Not entirely sure what you mean by AA, I figured that means asset allocation but I'm not sure what you mean by that, I thought that was a term to describe where my assets or stocks are.

I'm not sure what you mean by "change tack".

All I know is to keep contributing, keep my original 60/30/10 ratio (at least for now), use my 401k by maxing it, max Roth IRA, and that's about it. Anything major that I could be missing?
There are a couple slight "tweaks" that could easily be made...

You may want to consider a "glide down" path... in theory as you get closer to retirement, you'll likely want to "shift" things to being more conservative because you may want less volatility. There's various rules of thumbs... age in bonds is one... I tend to stray more aggressive, so I use a general formula of 125-age = % of bonds (admittedly, this is fairly aggressive), with a floors set for younger in life (ex: min of 10% bonds) and later in life (ex: max of 50% bonds). What one would choose for floors and "formula" is a personal decision but for me it took the emotion out of the equation (pun intended).

Once I had a formula, I created a spreadsheet with a column per year of age going out... I then calculated the resulting percentages I would need each year in each fund as we grow older. I then have a single cell that I use for "current" value of a 401k, which the spreadsheet then calculates $ amount for each year for each fund. I check back periodically, plug in the current actual value, and then pick off the column for my current age, and that's my target allocation. I then compare to actual amounts in each fund(s) and re-balance if they are significantly out of whack.

As for other things to consider...

Check w/you employer as they may allow you to add more after tax $ to your retirement accounts above and beyond the $18,500. After which, you can then convert that amount to a Roth. Check out Bogelheads Mega Backdoor Roth post for more info.

There is an ultimate cap... if under 50, for 2018 it's $54k - employer contributions - 18,500 = amount that could go into a mega backdoor roth conversion.

BTW... don't forget insurance and "adequate" insurance levels....

shawndoggy
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by shawndoggy » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:10 am

MaggieMay wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:51 am
Ha ha! I'm complaining that my positive, surprising return should've allayed my fears on investing at all, even when I lost big and was able to come out of it -- albeit it took about 15-17 years. I still have the urge to hide the upswing money in my mattress (okay, CDs) right now. The big thing for me is getting to the "afford" to retire in a downturn, and with me starting so late (marriage that caused my career to stall moving so much, husband that tried to spend every dime, divorced with nothing but a lower salary for my age/education), I have a lot of catching up to do.
Gotcha! I'm bad at reading sarcasm font.

(I too have been a lazy, but regular investor. Thankful for the old adage that a rising tide floats all boats).

MaggieMay
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:26 pm

Bastiat wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:37 am
What makes you "agree with Mark Cuban about not investing at all unless you have inside information"? Surely not the hundreds of millions of people who have invested profitably despite no inside information.

If all you look at is the downside - ignoring the greater upside - of course you are going to be angry and faithless. There is no such thing as a free lunch. That's kind of like being upset about soreness and occasional injury from working out while ignoring the health and physical benefits.
Sorry for the late reply to you -- didn't do it on purpose. Yep, you got it right that I'm looking at the downside, and even with the upside of being ahead right now, I'm not trusting it because I guess I haven't yet seen/heard of the hundreds of millions of people succeeding at their retirement just by putting money in and letting it ride. I've seen first hand the total results of what I get from soreness after working out, and I have faith in those methods. But I feel what I'm doing now is hoping for the best because I can't see the results. I fear that one butterfly wing will cause my house of bricks to tumble. Maybe I missed (totally possible) all the stories about unicorns farting money at retirement just for being in the market. Mark Cuban's musings that we are essentially all just flags in the wind as others get seats on the roller coaster makes sense. And I'm okay with that, as long as I am assured I get a life-sustaining supply of Dippin' Dots at the the end of the ride. But otherwise, I was thinking maybe he's right that we shouldn't play because we'll get burned. *shrug*

Anyway, it's something I'm going to have to see for myself in some way. I'll keep seeking justification that what I'm doing now is all I need to do, and some day (hopefully before it's time to retire) I'll be happy and not fearful that my success in new accumulation and current investment return is fleeting.

In the meantime, I wrote my 22-year story of downs and ups in hopes that at least someone else would be totally swayed and confident that everything's gonna be alright. Hmm...maybe I need some Bob Marley style... :P Thanks for listening and letting me be here.

Bastiat
Posts: 113
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by Bastiat » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:35 pm

MaggieMay wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:26 pm
Bastiat wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:37 am
What makes you "agree with Mark Cuban about not investing at all unless you have inside information"? Surely not the hundreds of millions of people who have invested profitably despite no inside information.

If all you look at is the downside - ignoring the greater upside - of course you are going to be angry and faithless. There is no such thing as a free lunch. That's kind of like being upset about soreness and occasional injury from working out while ignoring the health and physical benefits.
Sorry for the late reply to you -- didn't do it on purpose. Yep, you got it right that I'm looking at the downside, and even with the upside of being ahead right now, I'm not trusting it because I guess I haven't yet seen/heard of the hundreds of millions of people succeeding at their retirement just by putting money in and letting it ride. I've seen first hand the total results of what I get from soreness after working out, and I have faith in those methods. But I feel what I'm doing now is hoping for the best because I can't see the results. I fear that one butterfly wing will cause my house of bricks to tumble. Maybe I missed (totally possible) all the stories about unicorns farting money at retirement just for being in the market. Mark Cuban's musings that we are essentially all just flags in the wind as others get seats on the roller coaster makes sense. And I'm okay with that, as long as I am assured I get a life-sustaining supply of Dippin' Dots at the the end of the ride. But otherwise, I was thinking maybe he's right that we shouldn't play because we'll get burned. *shrug*
If you can't look at a historical chart of indexed stock returns and figure it out - I can't help you. That's not even getting into the hundreds of studies and volumes of research that look at historical results of portfolios through retirement.

Of course, the future is not guaranteed. Past performance and all that. But if the past few hundred years would have generally worked out without insider information, I don't see what's so different about 2018. Who knows; maybe this time really is different.

libralibra
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by libralibra » Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:20 am

Bastiat wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:35 pm
If you can't look at a historical chart of indexed stock returns and figure it out - I can't help you. That's not even getting into the hundreds of studies and volumes of research that look at historical results of portfolios through retirement.

Of course, the future is not guaranteed. Past performance and all that. But if the past few hundred years would have generally worked out without insider information, I don't see what's so different about 2018. Who knows; maybe this time really is different.
Setting the start year to 1996 on this calculator gives 8.771% as the annualized return including divs, which is very close to OP's outcome. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

However, other major indexes have not been as fortunate, eg. 1.963% over the same timeframe using https://dqydj.com/nikkei-return-calcula ... nvestment/

MaggieMay
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Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:31 am

Bastiat wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:37 am
If you can't look at a historical chart of indexed stock returns and figure it out - I can't help you. That's not even getting into the hundreds of studies and volumes of research that look at historical results of portfolios through retirement.

Of course, the future is not guaranteed. Past performance and all that. But if the past few hundred years would have generally worked out without insider information, I don't see what's so different about 2018. Who knows; maybe this time really is different.
Wow dude. I told you I just started really looking at all this (maybe a month?), haven't yet seen hundreds of people's stories and historical charts and studies and volumes of research, that I'm sure can be found here in BH with so much great information. I have looked at a promising S&P chart that trends upward...but it also goes down in periods of time. I'm but a speck in that trend chart, and what happens if in my (or anyone's) investing history, they do everything they were supposed to do, but fall within an area of a lot of downturns with no bright and shiny recovery? It may not be different in 2018, but it could be different in 5-10 years. Who knows, right? I've also seen articles from various people with different perspectives. I also said I would be continuing my learning journey and trying to feel better about my future. I've not asked anyone to help me specifically yet, but other replies have offered suggestions and insights (and you too by telling me there is a lot of research out there), but feel free to point to me to some research of which you speak. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to respond. In the meantime, I'll keep cautiously and fretfully investing my money knowing that I can lose a lot, but also hoping to find some source of truth that provides me comfort in what I'm doing. *shrug*

MaggieMay
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:32 am

libralibra wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:20 am
Setting the start year to 1996 on this calculator gives 8.771% as the annualized return including divs, which is very close to OP's outcome. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

However, other major indexes have not been as fortunate, eg. 1.963% over the same timeframe using https://dqydj.com/nikkei-return-calcula ... nvestment/
Thanks! I'll take a look at this and see if I can figure out what I'm looking at. There's lots of learning curves when you're new to looking at this stuff, for sure.

MaggieMay
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

Post by MaggieMay » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:48 am

Bastiat wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:37 am
If you can't look at a historical chart of indexed stock returns and figure it out - I can't help you. That's not even getting into the hundreds of studies and volumes of research that look at historical results of portfolios through retirement.

Of course, the future is not guaranteed. Past performance and all that. But if the past few hundred years would have generally worked out without insider information, I don't see what's so different about 2018. Who knows; maybe this time really is different.
Ha ha! You're probably right you can't help me until I see things for myself. I just started really looking at all this (maybe a month?), haven't yet seen hundreds of people's stories and historical charts and studies and volumes of research, that I'm sure can be found here in BH with so much great information. I have looked at a promising S&P chart that trends upward...but it also goes down in periods of time. I'm but a speck in that trend chart, and what happens if in my (or anyone's) investing history, they do everything they were supposed to do, but fall within an area of a lot of downturns with no bright and shiny recovery? It may not be different in 2018, but it could be different in 5-10 years. Who knows, right? I've also seen articles from various people with different perspectives. I will be continuing my learning journey and trying to feel better about my future. I've not asked anyone to help me specifically yet, but other replies have offered suggestions and insights (and you too by telling me there is a lot of research out there), but feel free to point to me to some research of which you speak. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to respond. In the meantime, I'll keep cautiously and fretfully investing my money knowing that I can lose a lot, but also hoping to find some source of truth that provides me comfort in what I'm doing. *shrug*

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