Time to take out the canes

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hdas
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Time to take out the canes

Post by hdas » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:36 am

Henry Clews said it best:

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"But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers' offices.

Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big "rake in". When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the over-plus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families"


Fifty Years in Wall Street, Henry Clews
Last edited by hdas on Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

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Johnnie
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by Johnnie » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:50 am

Or as J.P. Morgan supposedly said (and should have said if he didn't!), "Bear markets are when stocks return to their rightful owners.” :arrow:
"I know nothing."

Miriam2
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by Miriam2 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:52 pm

hdas wrote: Henry Clews said it best:

"But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers' offices.

Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big "rake in". When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the over-plus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families"

Fifty Years in Wall Street, Henry Clews
I enjoyed reading this very much :D

weltschmerz
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by weltschmerz » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:01 pm

deleted
Last edited by weltschmerz on Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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hdas
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by hdas » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:58 am

It's time to hobble down on our canes to the brokers' office. The only question is: now or at the close. Cheers :greedy
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

Big Dog
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by Big Dog » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:01 am

what's a 'broker's office'? :D

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cheese_breath
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by cheese_breath » Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:30 pm

Big Dog wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:01 am
what's a 'broker's office'? :D
That's a place where a guy or lady helps you go broke while (s)he becomes rich.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

Girya
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by Girya » Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:42 pm

Takes some nerve and discipline to plow money into the market on a day like today, but that's just what I did..... :shock:

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alpine_boglehead
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by alpine_boglehead » Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:54 pm

Girya wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:42 pm
Takes some nerve and discipline to plow money into the market on a day like today, but that's just what I did..... :shock:
The percentage drop is one thing, but on a price level, the S&P 500 is where is was last seen 2 months ago.

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Portfolio7
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:46 pm

alpine_boglehead wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:54 pm
Girya wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:42 pm
Takes some nerve and discipline to plow money into the market on a day like today, but that's just what I did..... :shock:
The percentage drop is one thing, but on a price level, the S&P 500 is where is was last seen 2 months ago.
More like 3 months ago, I think? Anyways, it's down just 6% over the past few days, and the whole trade war issue is still unresolved. I admit I think of the dry powder discussion as something that's reserved for 20%+ declines...?
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

Girya
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by Girya » Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:22 pm

Bear with me Team; I understand intellectually it’s not a ton but it does seem like a lot and takes some nerve to put money into. Which I did over the past few days.

Still yes, 10% (correction) to 20% (bear) is what it seems like these paragraphs refer to. Seems silly this should all be a psychological reaction to a series of off the cuff and not even considered Tweets.....

Vanguard Fan 1367
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:26 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:46 pm
alpine_boglehead wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:54 pm
Girya wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:42 pm
Takes some nerve and discipline to plow money into the market on a day like today, but that's just what I did..... :shock:
The percentage drop is one thing, but on a price level, the S&P 500 is where is was last seen 2 months ago.
More like 3 months ago, I think? Anyways, it's down just 6% over the past few days, and the whole trade war issue is still unresolved. I admit I think of the dry powder discussion as something that's reserved for 20%+ declines...?
if it drops 20 to 50 percent then it might be a great time to use any dry powder. The problem with timing the market is knowing where is the bottom.

GoldenFinch
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:35 pm

cheese_breath wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:30 pm
Big Dog wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:01 am
what's a 'broker's office'? :D
That's a place where a guy or lady helps you go broke while (s)he becomes rich.
You have to read the small print:



My STOCK guy makes me BROKER.

ralph124cf
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by ralph124cf » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:37 pm

I'm waiting for another 5,000 down on the DOW before I jump in more.

Ralph

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hdas
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by hdas » Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:12 pm

hdas wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:58 am
It's time to hobble down on our canes to the brokers' office. The only question is: now or at the close. Cheers :greedy
the panic has spent its force, perhaps it's time to, like the old fellows, quickly realize and deposit our profits with their bankers and retire for another opportunity to the quietude of our splendid homes and the bosoms of our happy families. Cheers :greedy
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

minimalistmarc
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by minimalistmarc » Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:46 pm

ralph124cf wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:37 pm
I'm waiting for another 5,000 down on the DOW before I jump in more.

Ralph
What’s plan B if that doesn’t happen? Stay out of the market forever?

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CULater
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by CULater » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:07 am

Sounds easy, but remember the full quote from Baron Rothschild: "Buy when there's blood in the street -- including your own"
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

ralph124cf
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by ralph124cf » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:42 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:46 pm
ralph124cf wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:37 pm
I'm waiting for another 5,000 down on the DOW before I jump in more.

Ralph
What’s plan B if that doesn’t happen? Stay out of the market forever?
I'm not out of the market, I'm at 60/40. I figure 5,000 down on the Dow would put me at my 10% rebalance band.

Ralph

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nisiprius
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by nisiprius » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:47 am

On August 15th, 2018, hdas told us to Take your canes out in emerging markets.

Since then, I don't see that the Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund (blue) has done either particularly well or particularly poorly. It did about the same as developed international markets (orange) and the US market (green). It outperformed developed international markets, but not by much. It underperformed the US market, but not by much.

Source

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Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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hdas
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Re: Time to take out the canes

Post by hdas » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:11 am

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:47 am
On August 15th, 2018, hdas told us to Take your canes out in emerging markets.

Since then, I don't see that the Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund (blue) has done either particularly well or particularly poorly. It did about the same as developed international markets (orange) and the US market (green). It outperformed developed international markets, but not by much. It underperformed the US market, but not by much.

Source

Image
Thanks for keeping me in check :greedy
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

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