"The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

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RNJ
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"The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by RNJ » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:26 am

Nice piece from Lawrence Hamtil:

"With the relentless rise of equities over the past year, several clients have inquired of me whether they should be more aggressively postured with their investment portfolios. Sensing that, for some, prior fears of market downturns have now been replaced with 'fear of missing out' (or "FOMO," as the term goes), I am always quick to remind them to think back over the past ten years and to remember how emotionally exhausted they all were during the declines of 2010-2011 and 2015-2016, let alone during the breathless descents of 2008-2009."


http://www.fortunefinancialadvisors.com ... -of-regret

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nedsaid
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by nedsaid » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm

I choose the pain of discipline.
A fool and his money are good for business.

CppCoder
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by CppCoder » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:22 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm
I choose the pain of discipline.
Me too. I don't even find it painful :).

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baw703916
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by baw703916 » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm

Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful. Bogleheads and EMH provided me with a framework for putting things in context. 2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.

Remember, the market had four more very good years after Alan Greenspan proclaimed "irrational exuberance". So maybe we are in a euphoric state, but that doesn't mean it's going to end in the near future.

Stay your course, rebalance as needed, and reassess your need and ability to take risk as your circumstances change.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

McCharley
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by McCharley » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:46 pm

That's funny that people see the rise of stocks as a reason to buy them. I find it much harder stay invested in stocks now, when they are flying high, then after they have crashed and are cheap.

I am staying the course, but this overpriced market is testing me. :greedy

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Toons
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Toons » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:49 pm

"No Pain,No Gain".
"Pain Is Just Weakness,Leaving The Body"
:happy

The simple solution is to just stay invested,
according to your allocation,
For life.
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:45 pm

baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful.
For several people I know who were near or in retirement during 2008-2009, it was insanely stressful. They weren't very financially savvy, their 401(k)s had dropped by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and they had no idea how to deal with it or if it was going to recover. Even people who were 10 years away were very concerned.

This forum, with its financial knowledge and average surveyed net worth of $2+ million, is a different planet compared to average people in society.

Edit: actually, come to think of it - if you look back at this forum in early 2009, I think you will find that it was that emotionally stressful on many people here too.

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GerryL
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by GerryL » Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:45 pm

CppCoder wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:22 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm
I choose the pain of discipline.
Me too. I don't even find it painful :).
Yeah. I call it Embracing My Ignorance. You could also call it Doing Nothing, With Conviction.

staythecourse
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by staythecourse » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:20 pm

baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.
Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that did not lose a job may have found it as no big deal and those that did found it a BIG deal. So in the end it is NOT what the stock market is doing, but if you know a paycheck is still coming at the end of the month to pay the mortgage and buy food for the family that makes it stressful to invest.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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baw703916
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by baw703916 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:20 am

staythecourse wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:20 pm
baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.
Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that did not lose a job may have found it as no big deal and those that did found it a BIG deal. So in the end it is NOT what the stock market is doing, but if you know a paycheck is still coming at the end of the month to pay the mortgage and buy food for the family that makes it stressful to invest.

Good luck.
Admittedly, I was fortunate in those aspects. At the time I had a safe (government) job, no dependents, and a house I'd bought ten years earlier, at about 1/3 of its price at the peak of the real estate bubble.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by technovelist » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:05 pm

McCharley wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:46 pm
That's funny that people see the rise of stocks as a reason to buy them. I find it much harder stay invested in stocks now, when they are flying high, then after they have crashed and are cheap.

I am staying the course, but this overpriced market is testing me. :greedy
You are very unusual. Almost everyone has the opposite emotional reaction.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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alpenglow
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by alpenglow » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:30 am

CppCoder wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:22 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm
I choose the pain of discipline.
Me too. I don't even find it painful :).
I agree. There is freedom in discipline. Freedom from second guessing yourself. Freedom from making behavior mistakes. Freedom to do better things with your time instead of fretting over investment choices.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:00 am

baw703916 wrote:
Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:20 am
staythecourse wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:20 pm
baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.
Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that did not lose a job may have found it as no big deal and those that did found it a BIG deal. So in the end it is NOT what the stock market is doing, but if you know a paycheck is still coming at the end of the month to pay the mortgage and buy food for the family that makes it stressful to invest.

Good luck.
Admittedly, I was fortunate in those aspects. At the time I had a safe (government) job, no dependents, and a house I'd bought ten years earlier, at about 1/3 of its price at the peak of the real estate bubble.
I was sitting in a board room more like a "war room" with a lot of very smart people watching the panic in their eyes and through their voices. Make no mistake, unless you were sitting in either the White House or a national security office - there are few "safe" government jobs. The movies, shows and congressional dog and pony shows did not show how close we came to going over the cliff into an abyss that would make the last ten years seem like a mirage than reality. Don't kid yourselves, asset allocation - equities, bonds or cash was going to mean very little in streets full of anarchy and panic, would make the "tar and feathers" of folklore seem tame by comparison. Thankfully saner minds prevailed, but don't think for a second any of us was that "good" to have a) seen it coming and b) think that because you came out okay over the last ten years that past becomes the future.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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midareff
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by midareff » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:02 am

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm
I choose the pain of discipline.
My wife reads Tarot cards and said yesterday a big decline is coming. Should I consider that actionable and cash out? :mrgreen:

Then again, maybe I'll just stay 45/55. :oops:

:moneybag

azanon
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by azanon » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:07 am

midareff wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:02 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm
I choose the pain of discipline.
My wife reads Tarot cards and said yesterday a big decline is coming. Should I consider that actionable and cash out? :mrgreen:

Then again, maybe I'll just stay 45/55. :oops:

:moneybag
And if she's skilled at that, she was careful to not say exactly when that would happen.

That's neat though. I wish my wife would learn to do that so I could get free readings.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by technovelist » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:10 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:00 am
baw703916 wrote:
Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:20 am
staythecourse wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:20 pm
baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.
Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that did not lose a job may have found it as no big deal and those that did found it a BIG deal. So in the end it is NOT what the stock market is doing, but if you know a paycheck is still coming at the end of the month to pay the mortgage and buy food for the family that makes it stressful to invest.

Good luck.
Admittedly, I was fortunate in those aspects. At the time I had a safe (government) job, no dependents, and a house I'd bought ten years earlier, at about 1/3 of its price at the peak of the real estate bubble.
I was sitting in a board room more like a "war room" with a lot of very smart people watching the panic in their eyes and through their voices. Make no mistake, unless you were sitting in either the White House or a national security office - there are few "safe" government jobs. The movies, shows and congressional dog and pony shows did not show how close we came to going over the cliff into an abyss that would make the last ten years seem like a mirage than reality. Don't kid yourselves, asset allocation - equities, bonds or cash was going to mean very little in streets full of anarchy and panic, would make the "tar and feathers" of folklore seem tame by comparison. Thankfully saner minds prevailed, but don't think for a second any of us was that "good" to have a) seen it coming and b) think that because you came out okay over the last ten years that past becomes the future.
That seems a bit overdone, but if you are seriously worried about something like that happening, there is one asset that would carry you through to the other side.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

LiterallyIronic
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by LiterallyIronic » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:19 am

baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful.
Sometimes I wonder if people on this forum are living on a different planet. I graduated university in December 2008. I had to take a job working in a call center for $9.50/hour. Stock market had tanked, but I wasn't making enough money to invest and so I missed the run-up. House values had tanked, but I wasn't making enough money, so I missed the run-up. I was making less money than I was when I was doing my student tech support job in college.

How's the planet you live on?

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midareff
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by midareff » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:39 am

azanon wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:07 am
midareff wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:02 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm
I choose the pain of discipline.
My wife reads Tarot cards and said yesterday a big decline is coming. Should I consider that actionable and cash out? :mrgreen:

Then again, maybe I'll just stay 45/55. :oops:

:moneybag
And if she's skilled at that, she was careful to not say exactly when that would happen.



That's neat though. I wish my wife would learn to do that so I could get free readings.
LOL, very skilled at that, old school Thai numerology and Palm reading. She had lots of faithful clients when she lived in Thailand although I am not among the true believers, to put it mildly. She had a website for a few years as well, she never charged but did require a charitable donation be made for her time.

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Hub
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Hub » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:04 am

McCharley wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:46 pm
That's funny that people see the rise of stocks as a reason to buy them. I find it much harder stay invested in stocks now, when they are flying high, then after they have crashed and are cheap.

I am staying the course, but this overpriced market is testing me. :greedy
This is my brain also. I've been a little heavier in cash now for a year than I would like ideally and now I'm having regret of missing out by not putting some of that in a year ago. It's just hard for me to manually invest into this market, though I don't think twice about my automated investments which go in monthly.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by InvestInPasta » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:22 am

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:45 pm
For several people I know who were near or in retirement during 2008-2009, it was insanely stressful. They weren't very financially savvy, their 401(k)s had dropped by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and they had no idea how to deal with it or if it was going to recover. Even people who were 10 years away were very concerned.

...

Edit: actually, come to think of it - if you look back at this forum in early 2009, I think you will find that it was that emotionally stressful on many people here too.
+1

“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” - Sir Winston Churchill
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am

baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful. Bogleheads and EMH provided me with a framework for putting things in context. 2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.
It's rare for me to disagree with you. But on this one... 2008 was, in fact, a moment of near existential oblivion.

Yes policy makers, having made a horrible mistake in allowing Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt, then moved fairly quickly to rectify that mistake. In actual fact, under more recent US law and court judgements, they might not be able to next time.

But there was a serious risk in September-October 2008 that the necessary actions would not be taken. The US Congress kicked out the original TARP proposal, the TARP in its stated purpose did not actually address the problem, and it was only the UK's actions to bail its banks (plus the hugely negative stockmarket response: -8% in one day when Congress first failed to act) plus some legal "interpretation" of the possible uses of the TARP that allowed the banking rescue to take place.

Citigroup, Barclays, RBS, HBOS/ Lloyds, BancAmerica, they were all teetering on the edge. AIG.

We did take the necessary actions across the world (but most importantly in USA & UK which had the biggest and worst affected financial institutions) but even so we had the fastest fall in world GDP since the Great Depression-- the period to June 2009 was truly horrible. Again, major government spending programmes then buttressed confidence and led to a turn.

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system.

May we never see its like again.

I fear we shall.
Remember, the market had four more very good years after Alan Greenspan proclaimed "irrational exuberance". So maybe we are in a euphoric state, but that doesn't mean it's going to end in the near future.

Stay your course, rebalance as needed, and reassess your need and ability to take risk as your circumstances change.
I agree with this advice.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by technovelist » Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:01 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system.

May we never see its like again.

I fear we shall.
Since absolutely nothing was done to fix the underlying causes of the crash, I don't see how we can avoid another one.

But as usual, timing is the hardest thing to get right. That's why something like the Permanent Portfolio is probably the best bet for the individual who wishes to protect his life savings, as its protection does not rely on guessing the timing of the next crash.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:24 am

technovelist wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:01 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system.

May we never see its like again.

I fear we shall.
Since absolutely nothing was done to fix the underlying causes of the crash, I don't see how we can avoid another one.

But as usual, timing is the hardest thing to get right. That's why something like the Permanent Portfolio is probably the best bet for the individual who wishes to protect his life savings, as its protection does not rely on guessing the timing of the next crash.
The biggest issue I have with these reccomendations is the vast majority of folks have most of their wealth tied up in retirement plans that don’t offer gold or long term treasuries as investment options. What is the alternative then?
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:53 am

staythecourse wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:20 pm
baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.
Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that did not lose a job may have found it as no big deal and those that did found it a BIG deal. So in the end it is NOT what the stock market is doing, but if you know a paycheck is still coming at the end of the month to pay the mortgage and buy food for the family that makes it stressful to invest.

Good luck.
I was 51 at the time and saw my retirement going down the drain. That was stressful. Fortunately the recovery was extraordinarily fast. And I could sleep at night.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:55 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:24 am
technovelist wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:01 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system.

May we never see its like again.

I fear we shall.
Since absolutely nothing was done to fix the underlying causes of the crash, I don't see how we can avoid another one.

But as usual, timing is the hardest thing to get right. That's why something like the Permanent Portfolio is probably the best bet for the individual who wishes to protect his life savings, as its protection does not rely on guessing the timing of the next crash.
The biggest issue I have with these reccomendations is the vast majority of folks have most of their wealth tied up in retirement plans that don’t offer gold or long term treasuries as investment options. What is the alternative then?
Ira or brokerage which holds them.

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just frank
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by just frank » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:03 am

I spent a few years (happily) our of the market, or (stupidly) not maxing my contribution. Now I have regret, fell like I have failed my family (a little), and I want to 'catch up'.

I have mastered my fears, 2015-16 I never bat an eye (it was not bad). 100% AA, growth tilt, full steam ahead and stay the course baby.

(until my IPS says we change the AA). :beer

Snowjob
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Snowjob » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:25 am

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:19 am
baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful.
Sometimes I wonder if people on this forum are living on a different planet. I graduated university in December 2008. I had to take a job working in a call center for $9.50/hour. Stock market had tanked, but I wasn't making enough money to invest and so I missed the run-up. House values had tanked, but I wasn't making enough money, so I missed the run-up. I was making less money than I was when I was doing my student tech support job in college.

How's the planet you live on?
Agree -- If you didn't think 2008-2009 was bad you really were living on a different planet (or so far insulated from anything that you just were oblivious to how close we were to complete social / economic reorganization / reset) I happened to graduate a couple years before 2008 and got a job in a highly defensive industry with excellent reoccurring service revenue and long term contracts. We still saw customers go bankrupt, all non budgets went to 0 and people even in our skeletal lean operation were let go because you couldn't make a sale to safe your life (and good luck getting paid on on time -- there goes your businesses working capital). The economy was truly seizing up, people were not spending and no one and nothing was truly safe. Had corrective steps not been taken (my opinion) Tarp / bailouts / 99 weeks unemployment / cut to 0 interest rates the world would look much different.

Ironic -- so much of life is luck, your born 2-3 years earlier you might have survived in your job like I did but end up becoming more conservative in your investing because of living through that experience. You ended up right in the teeth of it and struggled out of the gate. Someone who graduated a few years later and got a decent job at the start of the recover for their careers are probably still 100% stock and have seen nothing but increasing job prosperity and opportunity their entire life. All of our perspectives will be different for many reasons this is one thing I've noticed in some of my friends though.

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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by technovelist » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:14 pm

Dottie57 wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:55 am
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:24 am
technovelist wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:01 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system.

May we never see its like again.

I fear we shall.
Since absolutely nothing was done to fix the underlying causes of the crash, I don't see how we can avoid another one.

But as usual, timing is the hardest thing to get right. That's why something like the Permanent Portfolio is probably the best bet for the individual who wishes to protect his life savings, as its protection does not rely on guessing the timing of the next crash.
The biggest issue I have with these reccomendations is the vast majority of folks have most of their wealth tied up in retirement plans that don’t offer gold or long term treasuries as investment options. What is the alternative then?
Ira or brokerage which holds them.
Yes.

I've had a 401k "brokerage window" option available at a couple of employers. That's the best option if you have it.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

davidsorensen32
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by davidsorensen32 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:30 pm

Great post !!
Snowjob wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:25 am
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:19 am
baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful.
Sometimes I wonder if people on this forum are living on a different planet. I graduated university in December 2008. I had to take a job working in a call center for $9.50/hour. Stock market had tanked, but I wasn't making enough money to invest and so I missed the run-up. House values had tanked, but I wasn't making enough money, so I missed the run-up. I was making less money than I was when I was doing my student tech support job in college.

How's the planet you live on?
Agree -- If you didn't think 2008-2009 was bad you really were living on a different planet (or so far insulated from anything that you just were oblivious to how close we were to complete social / economic reorganization / reset) I happened to graduate a couple years before 2008 and got a job in a highly defensive industry with excellent reoccurring service revenue and long term contracts. We still saw customers go bankrupt, all non budgets went to 0 and people even in our skeletal lean operation were let go because you couldn't make a sale to safe your life (and good luck getting paid on on time -- there goes your businesses working capital). The economy was truly seizing up, people were not spending and no one and nothing was truly safe. Had corrective steps not been taken (my opinion) Tarp / bailouts / 99 weeks unemployment / cut to 0 interest rates the world would look much different.

Ironic -- so much of life is luck, your born 2-3 years earlier you might have survived in your job like I did but end up becoming more conservative in your investing because of living through that experience. You ended up right in the teeth of it and struggled out of the gate. Someone who graduated a few years later and got a decent job at the start of the recover for their careers are probably still 100% stock and have seen nothing but increasing job prosperity and opportunity their entire life. All of our perspectives will be different for many reasons this is one thing I've noticed in some of my friends though.

bearcub
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by bearcub » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:34 pm

"Oh the pain,the pain" Dr. Zackery Smith of Lost In Space. No disipline= "danger, danger" Robot from Lost In Space.

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Rowan Oak
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Rowan Oak » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:35 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:20 pm
baw703916 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:34 pm
2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with.
Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that did not lose a job may have found it as no big deal and those that did found it a BIG deal. So in the end it is NOT what the stock market is doing, but if you know a paycheck is still coming at the end of the month to pay the mortgage and buy food for the family that makes it stressful to invest.

Good luck.
Very much agree.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

TonyDAntonio
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by TonyDAntonio » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:48 pm

CppCoder wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:22 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 pm
I choose the pain of discipline.
Me too. I don't even find it painful :).
Exactly. As I build a pile of 'cash' that may likely take me all the way to SS while still having more money invested in equities than ever (while reading that this isn't the optimum way to run a portfolio) I find that I'm now worried about not having that much, financially, to worry about.

(Sorry for that long, rambling sentence)

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:52 pm

Dottie57 wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:55 am
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:24 am
technovelist wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:01 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system.

May we never see its like again.

I fear we shall.
Since absolutely nothing was done to fix the underlying causes of the crash, I don't see how we can avoid another one.

But as usual, timing is the hardest thing to get right. That's why something like the Permanent Portfolio is probably the best bet for the individual who wishes to protect his life savings, as its protection does not rely on guessing the timing of the next crash.
The biggest issue I have with these reccomendations is the vast majority of folks have most of their wealth tied up in retirement plans that don’t offer gold or long term treasuries as investment options. What is the alternative then?
Ira or brokerage which holds them.
My point is for folks who are still employed, where there largest asset is a employer provided retirement plan, where there is zero portability whilst still employed and there are no options for long term treasuries and gold, then saying the Permanent Portfolio is the best thing is of no use. IRA or brokerage account only works if you already hold an IRA equal to 50% of the value of your 401K, most folks don't have anything close to that in taxable or outside provider IRAs.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

technovelist
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Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Post by technovelist » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:11 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:52 pm
Dottie57 wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:55 am
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:24 am
technovelist wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:01 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system.

May we never see its like again.

I fear we shall.
Since absolutely nothing was done to fix the underlying causes of the crash, I don't see how we can avoid another one.

But as usual, timing is the hardest thing to get right. That's why something like the Permanent Portfolio is probably the best bet for the individual who wishes to protect his life savings, as its protection does not rely on guessing the timing of the next crash.
The biggest issue I have with these reccomendations is the vast majority of folks have most of their wealth tied up in retirement plans that don’t offer gold or long term treasuries as investment options. What is the alternative then?
Ira or brokerage which holds them.
My point is for folks who are still employed, where there largest asset is a employer provided retirement plan, where there is zero portability whilst still employed and there are no options for long term treasuries and gold, then saying the Permanent Portfolio is the best thing is of no use. IRA or brokerage account only works if you already hold an IRA equal to 50% of the value of your 401K, most folks don't have anything close to that in taxable or outside provider IRAs.
Yes, bad 401K plans are bad.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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