2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

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triceratop
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2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by triceratop » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:54 pm

Image

Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!

EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by cfs » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:21 pm

Thank you! I have downloaded a copy using your link. Good luck and thanks for reading ~cfs~
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by sambb » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:38 pm

THANKS to the OP

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:41 pm

Emerging markets right on top.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by thangngo » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:01 pm

Growth and EM did well in 2017... If I were a betting man, I would look at value and small/mid cap next year. :twisted: I'm not though... This chart just proves how important it is to own a well diversified portfolio.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by ResearchMed » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:05 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:41 pm
Emerging markets right on top.
Interesting.

EM tends to be at the very top, or at the very bottom.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by PFInterest » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:07 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:05 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:41 pm
Emerging markets right on top.
Interesting.

EM tends to be at the very top, or at the very bottom.

RM
Or the middle...

MarginalCost
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by MarginalCost » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:13 pm

PFInterest wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:07 pm
ResearchMed wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:05 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:41 pm
Emerging markets right on top.
Interesting.

EM tends to be at the very top, or at the very bottom.

RM
Or the middle...
Emerging Markets has been on the top or bottom for 15 (75%) of the past 20 years, far more than you would expect by chance (20%).

The other persistent extreme is Barclays' Aggregate Bond Index. Top or bottom for 12 years (60%). 9 of those were the same years. Makes sense.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by montanagirl » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:19 pm

I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm. :greedy

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by SimpleGift » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:34 pm

montanagirl wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:19 pm
I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...
One useful pattern, in my view, is to align each year on the S&P 500 return (in olive below). At a glance, one can then tell when a slice-and-dice diversified portfolio is paying off (i.e., when most of the boxes are above the S&P 500, like 2001-2004) — and also when a plain old 2 or 3-fund portfolio is doing the best (i.e., when most of the boxes are below the S&P 500, like 2014-2015).
  • Image
Not sure the folks at Callan would ever see the advantage of publishing their annual table in this form though. :wink:
Cordially, Todd

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by gwrvmd » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:24 am

Todd....Thank you very much for posting, don't know how you did it, very impressive

Actually makes me very happy to be a simple S&P 500 investor......Gordon
Disciple of John Neff

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Callan table, updated to include 2017

Post by chickadee » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:44 pm

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

Noticing that the wiki page that includes the Callan table of periodic returns ought to be updated to include 2017.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_ ... nt_returns

https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploa ... d_2018.pdf

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Re: Callan table, updated to include 2017

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:38 pm

This post is now in the Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community forum (wiki - a Bogleheads community effort). (This thread was in the Forum Administration forum. We'll answer questions anywhere.)

Thanks! Unfortunately, the 2017 table is not linked from Callan's website: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan. The page says "2017", but the PDF file is for 2016.

The 2018 file (2017 results) can be found via Google. In any case, the file is marked with a copyright notice. I have emailed Callan requesting permission to post the table, which is what I've done for the past several years. The permission has always been granted, so it's just a matter of waiting.

I have fixed the wiki links to Callan's periodic table website. See: Callan periodic table of investment returns
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Re: Callan table, updated to include 2017

Post by triceratop » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:42 pm

Duplicate: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=237091&p=3705123#p3705123

Was I not supposed to post a screen grab of the PDF?
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:17 pm

^^^ I have no idea. Your screenshot gives proper attribution, but I'm not a lawyer. To be on the safe side, I've been asking for (and receiving) permission for the wiki every year for the past several years.

===========
I merged chickadee's thread into here, which is in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (theory).

===========
SimpleGift has an interesting concept which removes some of the randomness. Someone will spot a trend, though, which goes against the point of the table.
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:29 pm

Triceratop:

Thank you for posting The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. In my opinion, the Callan Table offers the single best illustration of the importance of:

1. Diversification

2. Total market index funds.
Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack. -- Jack Bogle
Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by dh » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:54 pm

montanagirl wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:19 pm
I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm. :greedy
... and then write a book, start a blog, maybe teach a class... :sharebeer

I agree with Taylor's post above! 100%.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Top99% » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:24 am

Thanks triceratop and Todd! I will print both versions of the table and staple them to my forehead. To me this table is the most compelling piece of visual evidence I have seen for the value of diversification.
Adapt or perish

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by czeckers » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:33 pm

SimpleGift wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:34 pm
  • Image
This is a very interesting presentation. Thank you for sharing.

I do wish the folks at Callan would also include REITs.
The Espresso portfolio: | | 16% LCV, 16% SCV, 16% EM, 8% Int'l Value, 8% Int'l Sm, 8% US REIT, 8% Int'l REIT, 20% Inter-term US Treas | | "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by asset_chaos » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:22 pm

montanagirl wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:19 pm
I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm. :greedy
You can figure out the pattern. It's random. And I don't mean that flippantly. I once did a little market timing study that included constructing from hindsight a perfect market timing portfolio for two assets and showed the timing sequence was random to a high degree of confidence. I suspect the rows of the Callen table will show the same thing.
Regards, | | Guy

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Thesaints » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:35 pm

Well, not 100% random. EM are frequently at the top, or at the bottom, and rarely in between. It means they have been more volatile.
Also bonds are frequently at the extremes, but it would be wrong to conclude they are very volatile as well. For one, when they have been at the bottom, they have never yielded a negative result.
Overall, volatility does not depend on relative ranking amongst various investment sectors, but on the results dispersion of each investment sector, regardless of what all the others do.

Perhaps, this table is actually a dangerous tool, since it push people to ignore the actual return, written in small characters, and concentrate on relative performance, which is not that important.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by MarginalCost » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:58 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:35 pm
Well, not 100% random. EM are frequently at the top, or at the bottom, and rarely in between. It means they have been more volatile.
Also bonds are frequently at the extremes, but it would be wrong to conclude they are very volatile as well. For one, when they have been at the bottom, they have never yielded a negative result.
The Barclays' Aggregate Bond Index was negative in 1999 and 2013
High Yield bonds were also negative in 2000, 2002, 2008, and 2015

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Thesaints » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:02 pm

I was referring to investment grade bonds, BABI therefore, and when they were negative they were not at the bottom of the rankings.

The periodic table, which incidentally looks like the periodic table as much as the January 2018 calendar does, is almost completely useless.
For investors it is not the relative ranking that counts, but the absolute performance.
On the other hand, a “periodic table of the NFL” would have some merit.
Last edited by Thesaints on Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Sandtrap » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:04 pm

triceratop wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:54 pm
Image

Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!

EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
Link no longer downloadable for saving as a PDF.
Do you have another link when you have time.

Mahalo,
j :D

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:08 pm

Callan has updated their website. See: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan

Perhaps they got my email...
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by triceratop » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:11 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:04 pm
triceratop wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:54 pm
<snip>

Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!

EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
Link no longer downloadable for saving as a PDF.
Do you have another link when you have time.

Mahalo,
j :D
Still works for me.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Sandtrap » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:14 pm

triceratop wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:11 pm
Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:04 pm
triceratop wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:54 pm
<snip>

Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!

EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
Link no longer downloadable for saving as a PDF.
Do you have another link when you have time.

Mahalo,
j :D
Still works for me.
Got it!
Mahalo,
j

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by zonto » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:41 pm

While waiting for the Callan table to be updated this past week, I stumbled across something similar from Novel Investor: https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/. It includes REITs and a diversified portfolio. It is also interactive (at the link above, click on a square to play around).

Image:
Image

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:29 pm

I have received permission to publish the table. :thumbsup

The table is now in the wiki. See: Callan periodic table of investment returns

The wiki has also been revised to reflect a name change from Callan Associates to Callan LLC.

Please double-check, as Callan has changed their proxy index from MSCI EAFE* to MSCI World ex USA. The entire table was reworked, meaning that the tracking spreadsheets will need to be redone.

The 2017 table is here: File:Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns.png (what's shown in the wiki page)

The 2016 table is here: 19:35, 12 January 2017 (archive)

This change impacted the ranking of the S&P 500 Growth Index, which is used to show how the table works (fixed).

*MSCI == Morgan Stanley Capital International
EAFE == Europe, Australasia and the Far East
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by MarginalCost » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:00 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:02 pm
I was referring to investment grade bonds, BABI therefore, and when they were negative they were not at the bottom of the rankings.
Aha, I get it now. My apologies.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by TD2626 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:35 am

It's interesting the performance of Russell 2000 Value relative to other things given SCVs popularity. One must remember that investing for a lifetime-length goal is often a 40-70 year endeavor so single years likely don't matter much --- but SCV supporters shouldn't expect too much (if anything) and should realize it can perform poorly!

Also, the chart is interesting regarding emerging markets. It's worth looking at the number of times EM has been at the bottom of the chart and particularly its staggering past losses (in 2008, for example). The volatility is very apparent from the chart.

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:20 pm

I should point out that Callan LLC also provides the periodic table for other investments.

See: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan

The "The Callan Periodic Table Collection" contains the existing table and "10 additional versions including the indices relative to inflation, real estate indices, and hedge fund sub-strategies."

The link is in the wiki: Callan periodic table of investment returns (External links)
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by siamond » Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:27 pm

SimpleGift wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:34 pm
One useful pattern, in my view, is to align each year on the S&P 500 return [...]
That's a cool idea, SimpleGift. It would be interesting to have a tool allowing to generate a similar chart with an arbitrary portfolio of reference (kind of generalizing your idea of using S&P 500 as an anchor).

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by SimpleGift » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:51 pm

siamond wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:27 pm
SimpleGift wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:34 pm
One useful pattern, in my view, is to align each year on the S&P 500 return [...]
That's a cool idea, SimpleGift. It would be interesting to have a tool allowing to generate a similar chart with an arbitrary portfolio of reference (kind of generalizing your idea of using S&P 500 as an anchor).
Yes, I don't know nearly enough about writing code to even surmise how difficult a project this would be (since my approach was just to digitally cut-and-paste the Callan Table in a graphics program) — but I wouldn't doubt there are quite a few Bogleheads with the programming skills to build such a tool.

Whether the work involved would be worth it for the cool visuals...well, they'd have to decide that for themselves.
Cordially, Todd

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Callan Table through 2017

Post by integrity » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:48 am

[merged integrity's post into this existing thread - moderator prudent]
Sorry if this was posted already and I missed it. Another January brings another updated Callan table.

https://www.callan.com/periodic-table-investments/

Two consecutive years now with all indices giving positive returns. So much for finding something to "buy low".

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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by GerryL » Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:50 pm

I was about to post a link to a Money magazine article by Walter Updegrave on the updated Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns, but I see that this has already been the focus of discussion of several (merged) threads. I will still post the link to the article here, because it offers a good discussion about “practical lessons” one can take away from this chart.

This One Chart Can Help You retire Richer: http://time.com/money/5124387/investing ... t-returns/

Some years back when my former employer was revamping the 401k program, they brought on a personal finance consultant to help employees understand their options and how to plan for retirement. The one thing I really remember from my exposure to these folks was this chart. It really brought home the importance of diversification. (Updegrave Lesson #3) I’m thinking I might add it to the slide set I use in my Financial Beginnings presentation on Investing Fundamentals to high school classes.

PS Given what I took away from the chart, I find it interesting that the so much of the discussion on this thread seems to do with using the table to develop some sort of algorithm for investing.

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