2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
- triceratop
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2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!
EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Thank you! I have downloaded a copy using your link. Good luck and thanks for reading ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
THANKS to the OP
- whodidntante
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Emerging markets right on top.
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Growth and EM did well in 2017... If I were a betting man, I would look at value and small/mid cap next year. I'm not though... This chart just proves how important it is to own a well diversified portfolio.
Time is the ultimate currency.
- ResearchMed
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Interesting.
EM tends to be at the very top, or at the very bottom.
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Or the middle...ResearchMed wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:05 pmInteresting.
EM tends to be at the very top, or at the very bottom.
RM
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Emerging Markets has been on the top or bottom for 15 (75%) of the past 20 years, far more than you would expect by chance (20%).PFInterest wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:07 pmOr the middle...ResearchMed wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:05 pmInteresting.
EM tends to be at the very top, or at the very bottom.
RM
The other persistent extreme is Barclays' Aggregate Bond Index. Top or bottom for 12 years (60%). 9 of those were the same years. Makes sense.
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm.
- SimpleGift
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
One useful pattern, in my view, is to align each year on the S&P 500 return (in olive below). At a glance, one can then tell when a slice-and-dice diversified portfolio is paying off (i.e., when most of the boxes are above the S&P 500, like 2001-2004) — and also when a plain old 2 or 3-fund portfolio is doing the best (i.e., when most of the boxes are below the S&P 500, like 2014-2015).montanagirl wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:19 pm I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Todd....Thank you very much for posting, don't know how you did it, very impressive
Actually makes me very happy to be a simple S&P 500 investor......Gordon
Actually makes me very happy to be a simple S&P 500 investor......Gordon
Disciple of John Neff
Callan table, updated to include 2017
[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]
Noticing that the wiki page that includes the Callan table of periodic returns ought to be updated to include 2017.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_ ... nt_returns
https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploa ... d_2018.pdf
Noticing that the wiki page that includes the Callan table of periodic returns ought to be updated to include 2017.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_ ... nt_returns
https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploa ... d_2018.pdf
Re: Callan table, updated to include 2017
This post is now in the Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community forum (wiki - a Bogleheads community effort). (This thread was in the Forum Administration forum. We'll answer questions anywhere.)
Thanks! Unfortunately, the 2017 table is not linked from Callan's website: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan. The page says "2017", but the PDF file is for 2016.
The 2018 file (2017 results) can be found via Google. In any case, the file is marked with a copyright notice. I have emailed Callan requesting permission to post the table, which is what I've done for the past several years. The permission has always been granted, so it's just a matter of waiting.
I have fixed the wiki links to Callan's periodic table website. See: Callan periodic table of investment returns
Thanks! Unfortunately, the 2017 table is not linked from Callan's website: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan. The page says "2017", but the PDF file is for 2016.
The 2018 file (2017 results) can be found via Google. In any case, the file is marked with a copyright notice. I have emailed Callan requesting permission to post the table, which is what I've done for the past several years. The permission has always been granted, so it's just a matter of waiting.
I have fixed the wiki links to Callan's periodic table website. See: Callan periodic table of investment returns
- triceratop
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Re: Callan table, updated to include 2017
Duplicate: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=237091&p=3705123#p3705123
Was I not supposed to post a screen grab of the PDF?
Was I not supposed to post a screen grab of the PDF?
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
^^^ I have no idea. Your screenshot gives proper attribution, but I'm not a lawyer. To be on the safe side, I've been asking for (and receiving) permission for the wiki every year for the past several years.
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I merged chickadee's thread into here, which is in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (theory).
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SimpleGift has an interesting concept which removes some of the randomness. Someone will spot a trend, though, which goes against the point of the table.
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I merged chickadee's thread into here, which is in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (theory).
===========
SimpleGift has an interesting concept which removes some of the randomness. Someone will spot a trend, though, which goes against the point of the table.
- Taylor Larimore
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Triceratop:
Thank you for posting The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. In my opinion, the Callan Table offers the single best illustration of the importance of:
1. Diversification
2. Total market index funds.
Taylor
Thank you for posting The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. In my opinion, the Callan Table offers the single best illustration of the importance of:
1. Diversification
2. Total market index funds.
Best wishes.Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack. -- Jack Bogle
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
... and then write a book, start a blog, maybe teach a class...montanagirl wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:19 pm I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm.
I agree with Taylor's post above! 100%.
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Thanks triceratop and Todd! I will print both versions of the table and staple them to my forehead. To me this table is the most compelling piece of visual evidence I have seen for the value of diversification.
Adapt or perish
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
This is a very interesting presentation. Thank you for sharing.
I do wish the folks at Callan would also include REITs.
The Espresso portfolio: |
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20% US TSM, 20% Small Value, 10% US REIT, 10% Dev Int'l, 10% EM, 10% Commodities, 20% Inter-term US Treas |
|
"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."
- asset_chaos
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
You can figure out the pattern. It's random. And I don't mean that flippantly. I once did a little market timing study that included constructing from hindsight a perfect market timing portfolio for two assets and showed the timing sequence was random to a high degree of confidence. I suspect the rows of the Callen table will show the same thing.montanagirl wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:19 pm I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm. :greedy
Regards, |
|
Guy
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Well, not 100% random. EM are frequently at the top, or at the bottom, and rarely in between. It means they have been more volatile.
Also bonds are frequently at the extremes, but it would be wrong to conclude they are very volatile as well. For one, when they have been at the bottom, they have never yielded a negative result.
Overall, volatility does not depend on relative ranking amongst various investment sectors, but on the results dispersion of each investment sector, regardless of what all the others do.
Perhaps, this table is actually a dangerous tool, since it push people to ignore the actual return, written in small characters, and concentrate on relative performance, which is not that important.
Also bonds are frequently at the extremes, but it would be wrong to conclude they are very volatile as well. For one, when they have been at the bottom, they have never yielded a negative result.
Overall, volatility does not depend on relative ranking amongst various investment sectors, but on the results dispersion of each investment sector, regardless of what all the others do.
Perhaps, this table is actually a dangerous tool, since it push people to ignore the actual return, written in small characters, and concentrate on relative performance, which is not that important.
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
The Barclays' Aggregate Bond Index was negative in 1999 and 2013Thesaints wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:35 pm Well, not 100% random. EM are frequently at the top, or at the bottom, and rarely in between. It means they have been more volatile.
Also bonds are frequently at the extremes, but it would be wrong to conclude they are very volatile as well. For one, when they have been at the bottom, they have never yielded a negative result.
High Yield bonds were also negative in 2000, 2002, 2008, and 2015
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
I was referring to investment grade bonds, BABI therefore, and when they were negative they were not at the bottom of the rankings.
The periodic table, which incidentally looks like the periodic table as much as the January 2018 calendar does, is almost completely useless.
For investors it is not the relative ranking that counts, but the absolute performance.
On the other hand, a “periodic table of the NFL” would have some merit.
The periodic table, which incidentally looks like the periodic table as much as the January 2018 calendar does, is almost completely useless.
For investors it is not the relative ranking that counts, but the absolute performance.
On the other hand, a “periodic table of the NFL” would have some merit.
Last edited by Thesaints on Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- Sandtrap
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Link no longer downloadable for saving as a PDF.triceratop wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:54 pm
Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!
EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
Do you have another link when you have time.
Mahalo,
j
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Callan has updated their website. See: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan
Perhaps they got my email...
Perhaps they got my email...
- triceratop
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Still works for me.Sandtrap wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:04 pmLink no longer downloadable for saving as a PDF.triceratop wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:54 pm <snip>
Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!
EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
Do you have another link when you have time.
Mahalo,
j
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
- Sandtrap
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Got it!triceratop wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:11 pmStill works for me.Sandtrap wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:04 pmLink no longer downloadable for saving as a PDF.triceratop wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:54 pm <snip>
Here is the 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I found the link here by manipulating the link for the 2016 table. It worked, so here we are!
EM took off (another year at the top of the table) while Value lagged.
Do you have another link when you have time.
Mahalo,
j
Mahalo,
j
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
While waiting for the Callan table to be updated this past week, I stumbled across something similar from Novel Investor: https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/. It includes REITs and a diversified portfolio. It is also interactive (at the link above, click on a square to play around).
Image:
Image:
"For real-world portfolios, the main impact of diversification is to narrow the dispersion of outcomes. [T]he most important impact is to make the worst outcomes less bad." (Vineviz)
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
I have received permission to publish the table.
The table is now in the wiki. See: Callan periodic table of investment returns
The wiki has also been revised to reflect a name change from Callan Associates to Callan LLC.
Please double-check, as Callan has changed their proxy index from MSCI EAFE* to MSCI World ex USA. The entire table was reworked, meaning that the tracking spreadsheets will need to be redone.
The 2017 table is here: File:Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns.png (what's shown in the wiki page)
The 2016 table is here: 19:35, 12 January 2017 (archive)
This change impacted the ranking of the S&P 500 Growth Index, which is used to show how the table works (fixed).
*MSCI == Morgan Stanley Capital International
EAFE == Europe, Australasia and the Far East
The table is now in the wiki. See: Callan periodic table of investment returns
The wiki has also been revised to reflect a name change from Callan Associates to Callan LLC.
Please double-check, as Callan has changed their proxy index from MSCI EAFE* to MSCI World ex USA. The entire table was reworked, meaning that the tracking spreadsheets will need to be redone.
The 2017 table is here: File:Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns.png (what's shown in the wiki page)
The 2016 table is here: 19:35, 12 January 2017 (archive)
This change impacted the ranking of the S&P 500 Growth Index, which is used to show how the table works (fixed).
*MSCI == Morgan Stanley Capital International
EAFE == Europe, Australasia and the Far East
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
It's interesting the performance of Russell 2000 Value relative to other things given SCVs popularity. One must remember that investing for a lifetime-length goal is often a 40-70 year endeavor so single years likely don't matter much --- but SCV supporters shouldn't expect too much (if anything) and should realize it can perform poorly!
Also, the chart is interesting regarding emerging markets. It's worth looking at the number of times EM has been at the bottom of the chart and particularly its staggering past losses (in 2008, for example). The volatility is very apparent from the chart.
Also, the chart is interesting regarding emerging markets. It's worth looking at the number of times EM has been at the bottom of the chart and particularly its staggering past losses (in 2008, for example). The volatility is very apparent from the chart.
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
I should point out that Callan LLC also provides the periodic table for other investments.
See: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan
The "The Callan Periodic Table Collection" contains the existing table and "10 additional versions including the indices relative to inflation, real estate indices, and hedge fund sub-strategies."
The link is in the wiki: Callan periodic table of investment returns (External links)
See: Periodic Table of Investments - Callan
The "The Callan Periodic Table Collection" contains the existing table and "10 additional versions including the indices relative to inflation, real estate indices, and hedge fund sub-strategies."
The link is in the wiki: Callan periodic table of investment returns (External links)
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
That's a cool idea, SimpleGift. It would be interesting to have a tool allowing to generate a similar chart with an arbitrary portfolio of reference (kind of generalizing your idea of using S&P 500 as an anchor).SimpleGift wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:34 pmOne useful pattern, in my view, is to align each year on the S&P 500 return [...]
- SimpleGift
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Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Yes, I don't know nearly enough about writing code to even surmise how difficult a project this would be (since my approach was just to digitally cut-and-paste the Callan Table in a graphics program) — but I wouldn't doubt there are quite a few Bogleheads with the programming skills to build such a tool.siamond wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:27 pmThat's a cool idea, SimpleGift. It would be interesting to have a tool allowing to generate a similar chart with an arbitrary portfolio of reference (kind of generalizing your idea of using S&P 500 as an anchor).SimpleGift wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:34 pmOne useful pattern, in my view, is to align each year on the S&P 500 return [...]
Whether the work involved would be worth it for the cool visuals...well, they'd have to decide that for themselves.
Callan Table through 2017
[merged integrity's post into this existing thread - moderator prudent]
Sorry if this was posted already and I missed it. Another January brings another updated Callan table.
https://www.callan.com/periodic-table-investments/
Two consecutive years now with all indices giving positive returns. So much for finding something to "buy low".
Sorry if this was posted already and I missed it. Another January brings another updated Callan table.
https://www.callan.com/periodic-table-investments/
Two consecutive years now with all indices giving positive returns. So much for finding something to "buy low".
Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
I was about to post a link to a Money magazine article by Walter Updegrave on the updated Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns, but I see that this has already been the focus of discussion of several (merged) threads. I will still post the link to the article here, because it offers a good discussion about “practical lessons” one can take away from this chart.
This One Chart Can Help You retire Richer: http://time.com/money/5124387/investing ... t-returns/
Some years back when my former employer was revamping the 401k program, they brought on a personal finance consultant to help employees understand their options and how to plan for retirement. The one thing I really remember from my exposure to these folks was this chart. It really brought home the importance of diversification. (Updegrave Lesson #3) I’m thinking I might add it to the slide set I use in my Financial Beginnings presentation on Investing Fundamentals to high school classes.
PS Given what I took away from the chart, I find it interesting that the so much of the discussion on this thread seems to do with using the table to develop some sort of algorithm for investing.
This One Chart Can Help You retire Richer: http://time.com/money/5124387/investing ... t-returns/
Some years back when my former employer was revamping the 401k program, they brought on a personal finance consultant to help employees understand their options and how to plan for retirement. The one thing I really remember from my exposure to these folks was this chart. It really brought home the importance of diversification. (Updegrave Lesson #3) I’m thinking I might add it to the slide set I use in my Financial Beginnings presentation on Investing Fundamentals to high school classes.
PS Given what I took away from the chart, I find it interesting that the so much of the discussion on this thread seems to do with using the table to develop some sort of algorithm for investing.