lol, apart from that fact that it is diametrically opposed to the fundamental boglehead investing strategy, i think you just answered your own question!Da5id wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:06 amWhy? Very little is "forbidden" here in discussing investing. CAPE is somewhat useful for discussing future dispersion of returns, but the huge error bars obviously make it poor for market timing or many other purposes to which it may be applied. And length of the bull market, while not very useful, may be helpful in the context of reminding people that stocks don't always go up and that they should be prepared for the inevitable correction. Of course, you can have corrections 2 years into a bull market or 8 years.
not trying to be flippant, there are certainly assumptions embedded in the boglehead strategy, and so the strategy can be critiqued by attacking those assumptions. its just that CAPE and length of bull/bear market aren't valid critiques. if anything, id contend that their discussion causes more harm than good by confusing people as to their applicability within our investment strategy.
the former is some pseudo-valuation gauge and the latter is no better than the gamblers fallacy.