REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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mudfud
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mudfud » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

2365.61
Also posted on Google Forms.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by aj76er » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:34 am

2981.36

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by z9852 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:07 am

3038.63

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SimpleGift
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SimpleGift » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:28 am

Since we are about halfway through the Contest registration period, with 354 entries as of this afternoon (1/4/18), it seemed worthwhile to look at a histogram chart of all the entries so far (plus I'm learning how to do frequency distributions):
  • Image
    Note: Two outlier forecasts were not included, one high and one low.
    Source: Google Doc
The median forecast to date for the S&P 500 closing price in 2018 is 2,867.40, a price gain of 7.3% for the year ahead — a cautiously optimistic outlook. This chart will be updated after January 10, when all the entries are recorded.

Kudos to Ralph Aversen for organizing the Contest entry form and Google Docs spreadsheet!
Cordially, Todd

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aspirit
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by aspirit » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:04 am

SimpleGift wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:28 am
Since we are about halfway through the Contest registration period, with 354 entries as of this afternoon (1/4/18), it seemed worthwhile to look at a histogram chart of all the entries so far (plus I'm learning how to do frequency distributions):
  • Image
    Note: Two outlier forecasts were not included, one high and one low.
    Source: Google Doc
The median forecast to date for the S&P 500 closing price in 2018 is 2,867.40, a price gain of 7.3% for the year ahead — a cautiously optimistic outlook. This chart will be updated after January 10, when all the entries are recorded.

Kudos to Ralph Aversen for organizing the Contest entry form and Google Docs spreadsheet!
Always appreciate your analysis Todd/Simplegift, and kudo's to Ralph Averson for the new design & implementation. 2820.20 for both posterity and a guess is recorded on my behalf. Good luck!
Time & tides wait for no one. A man has to know his limitations.

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tadamsmar
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tadamsmar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:05 am

The new interface allows a real-time look at the contest entries by looking at the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =451082556

I was thinking about writing a spreadsheet analyzer that would tell you the next best pick given the current picks. You would have to enter a mean and variance estimate for the SP500 and pow it would show you the next best pick.

But, there's a rub. This contests is friendly only if no one plays it optimally. Optimal play is incredibly cut-throat. That app I am contemplating would have you betting .01 above (or below) the entry of a competitor, likely boxing them in to have low win probability. And you'd want to be the last entry in the contest, which would create some kind of competition to be last at midnight on 1/10.

I personally don't play the contest because I'd just end up having to balance friendly play against optimal play.

If the prize was $100,000 then all heck would break lose.
Last edited by tadamsmar on Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:43 am, edited 3 times in total.

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parsi1
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by parsi1 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:08 am

2018 .

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:20 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:05 am
The new interface allows a real-time look at the contest entries by looking at the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =451082556

I was thinking about writing a spreadsheet analyzer that would tell you the next best pick given the current picks. You would have to enter a mean and variance estimate for the SP500 and pow it would show you the next best pick.

But, there's a rub. This contests is friendly only if no one plays it optimally. Optimal play is incredibly cut-throat. That app I am contemplating would have you betting .01 above (or below) the entry of a competitor, likely boxing them in to have low win probability. And you'd want to be the last entry in the contest, which would create some kind of competition to be last at midnight on 1/10.

I personally don't play the contest because I just end of having to balance friendly play against optimal play.

If the prize was $100,000 then all heck would break lose.
I was thinking of something also, it's kind of in this odd state right now where we have Google Form -> Google Spreadsheet -> Tracking Data. I was thinking of how to provide the functionality of something like; a person puts in a percentage (say 7%) and it picks an unused value for them.

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Up to 400

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:21 am

The contest currently has 400 entries :-)

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by GettingThere » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:33 am

UBS has changed their forecast - 3150. Since the contest entries are not yet closed, should we update their guess? Or, are the rules for the Wall Street Experts the same as for all of us: "Only one guess"?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/ubs-rai ... surge.html

Also: recording my guess here in the forum as well as the spreadsheet - 3217.89

Thanks.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by El Greco » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:13 pm

3007.00

Irrational exuberance is back...with a vengeance, baby! :twisted:

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RedRose » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:20 pm

2844.0 :moneybag

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by 2cents2 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:30 pm

3252.88
recorded on the spreadsheet ( I think )

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:11 pm

GettingThere wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:33 am
UBS has changed their forecast - 3150. Since the contest entries are not yet closed, should we update their guess? Or, are the rules for the Wall Street Experts the same as for all of us: "Only one guess"?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/ubs-rai ... surge.html

Also: recording my guess here in the forum as well as the spreadsheet - 3217.89

Thanks.
Thanks, that's interesting, I went ahead and updated their guess.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:27 pm

I want to remind everyone again that if you don't do the online registration of your guess as indicated in the OP (follow the link), you're not registered. If you posted an entry on this thread but didn't register your entry using the online form, go back and follow the directions in the original post to get registered.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dwayne » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:38 pm

3394.71 posted to the online contest form.

(Correction: 3394.01 posted to the online form. One of these days I'll learn to type.)

Pessimists may be right more often, but optimists have more fun. Here's hoping for a steady and persistent market climb in 2018.

I also saw Lady Geek's comment in the contest, it's perfect.

Dwayne
Last edited by Dwayne on Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:48 pm

^^^ :)

The spreadsheet format is also helping to spot human error.

SimpleGift's spreadsheet is showing a frequency peak around 3000. A manual search shows we have 5 entries at 3000. Only the earliest guess counts.

I strongly suggest that members search for duplicate entries.

- Go the the spreadsheet.
- Using your web browser, bring up the search box with Ctrl+F.
- Type your guess in the search box and see if there is more than one occurrence.

If there is more than one entry, only the first one is valid. Anything after that is a duplicate and doesn't count.

If you've duplicated someone's earlier guess, I recommend asking rarvesen very, very politely if you could please change your entry (at the duplicate spot, never earlier than the first guess).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by EyeDee » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:16 pm

.
LadyGeek,

Rules listed in OP say that changes are not allowed: "Only one guess (no percentages and no changes)."
LadyGeek wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:48 pm
^^^ :)

The spreadsheet format is also helping to spot human error.

SimpleGift's spreadsheet is showing a frequency peak around 3000. A manual search shows we have 5 entries at 3000. Only the earliest guess counts.

I strongly suggest that members search for duplicate entries.

- Go the the spreadsheet.
- Using your web browser, bring up the search box with Ctrl+F.
- Type your guess in the search box and see if there is more than one occurrence.

If there is more than one entry, only the first one is valid. Anything after that is a duplicate and doesn't count.

If you've duplicated someone's earlier guess, I recommend asking rarvesen very, very politely if you could please change your entry (at the duplicate spot, never earlier than the first guess).
Randy

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:38 pm

That's why it was a polite request. The OP can still say no.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by NDfan27 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:03 pm

2935.19

Moolala
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Moolala » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:28 pm

I guessed 28992. I may have forgotten a decimal. :oops:

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:35 pm

Here's my guess as recorded in online submission form:

2911.56

Based on my losing predictions over the last few years, why should 2018 be any different?
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by queso » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:09 pm

2987.54

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LateStarter1975 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:00 pm

S&P: 2969
Debt is dangerous...simple is beautiful

stormswami
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by stormswami » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:49 am

3085.25 is my guess (already entered)

I think another solidly bullish year is ahead, although with probably a little more volatility than 2017. Seemingly no signs of recession until at least 2019-2020 as far as I can amateurly tell. Foreign returns may exceed the U.S., however.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Daryl » Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:27 am

Moolala wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:28 pm
I guessed 28992. I may have forgotten a decimal. :oops:
If you win, we all win! At 35 years old, I'll be joining the retirement class of 2018!

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by teacher » Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:44 am

2424
First year I have been pessimistic. I hope I'm wrong, but what goes up must come down.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by abuss368 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:14 am

2885!
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Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

Post by Water » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:55 am

[Post moved into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

3835.38
I have entered in the form as well.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by iceport » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:06 pm

2819.10
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by InvestInPasta » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:24 pm

2000 :mrgreen:
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:35 pm

Water - You posted your entry in the Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage? thread, I moved it into here.

Thanks to the member who reported the post.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SimpleGift » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:52 pm

Now that the registration period for the 2018 Boglehead Contest is closed, we can display the frequency distribution of the final entries in a histogram chart:
  • Image
    NOTE: Several outlier forecasts were not included in the chart, both high and low.
    Source: Google Doc
There are 480 entries this year, and the median forecast for the closing price of the S&P 500 in 2018 is 2,897.45 — an 8.4% price increase for the year. Best wishes for success to all fellow contestants!
Last edited by SimpleGift on Sat May 05, 2018 8:57 am, edited 3 times in total.
Cordially, Todd

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:53 pm

SimpleGift wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:52 pm
Now that the registration period for the 2018 Bogleheads is closed, we can display the frequency distribution of the final entries in a histogram chart:
Thanks so much, this is great!

surfer1
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by surfer1 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:34 pm

Just as last year, I've posted my charts in a separate thread post for the bids submitted to the 2018 Boglehead Contest entries!

It's always interesting and fun seeing the bullish vs bearish sentiment among us!

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gffisher » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:29 pm

2807.29

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Portfolio7 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:54 pm

3020.10 I submitted on the official form long ago, didn't realize we were doing it here too. Sometimes I think I have a good feel for where the market is heading. Not this time. I just liked the idea of a 30 a 20 and a 10.
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Raymond
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Raymond » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:59 pm

^^ The contest entry window closed at 12 midnight ET on January 10, 2018.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:59 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:54 pm
3020.10 I submitted on the official form long ago, didn't realize we were doing it here too. Sometimes I think I have a good feel for where the market is heading. Not this time. I just liked the idea of a 30 a 20 and a 10.
The reason for posting here was to ensure that the person submitting the entry was really you.

==================
rarvesen - Please check the website (Boglehead Contest 2018), as the column headers are displayed twice, i.e "Rank Name Guess + / -" is listed twice.

Suggestions for the summary chart:

- Please provide a legend. I assume the red dots are the Wall Street Experts.

- Create an anchor (Iink) to the Summary chart from the top of the page. Then, an anchor (link) from the chart to the top of the page. Otherwise, readers may not see the chart - it's a lot of scrolling.

I do this for the site homepage "View forum list" link. PM me if you need assistance.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by onthecusp » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:51 pm

3088.32
Long since entered but I guess I need to post here too.

FinancialDave
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FinancialDave » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:40 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:59 pm



Suggestions for the summary chart:

- Please provide a legend. I assume the red dots are the Wall Street Experts.

- Create an anchor (Iink) to the Summary chart from the top of the page. Then, an anchor (link) from the chart to the top of the page. Otherwise, readers may not see the chart - it's a lot of scrolling.

I do this for the site homepage "View forum list" link. PM me if you need assistance.
Another suggestion would be to revive if possible the sorting feature which allowed you to sort by name or sort by guess.

I do like the chart and summary at the bottom of the page. That is a nice addition.

Dave
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by P&C actuary » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:36 pm

Checked today and I made it to the top, but way too early.

Standings

Rank Name Guess + / -
1 P&C Actuary 2776.00 (0.42)
2 imbogled 2777.17 (0.75)
3 veggivet 2777.72 (1.30)
4 jj 2777.77 (1.35)
5 cadk 2773.16 (3.26)

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:04 pm

Revised for 2018, the hedge fund and Bogleheads (S&P 500) contests are in the wiki: Bogleheads® contests
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

vested1
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by vested1 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:00 am

Hey, not fair! I was #27 on Tuesday and now I'm, #140. Time to start climbing that hill again.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by AtlasShrugged? » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:19 am

Ralph....May I make two suggestions? When I click on the link in the original post, it brought me to the table of entries.

Order the entries from lowest to highest.
And expand the chart to 4000.

Can these two things be done?
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:08 am

A broken clock is right twice a day. Today I am leading the 2018 contest: https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/

Victoria
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cfs » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:34 am

329 as of this moment, all uphill from here. Good luck to all guessers y gracias por leer / cfs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by alisa4804 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:05 pm

Victoria, you have now been overtaken by “badbreath”...

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by VictoriaF » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:09 am

alisa4804 wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:05 pm
Victoria, you have now been overtaken by “badbreath”...
I am devastated. What should I tell my financial newsletter subscribers?! The redeeming fact is that I have zero newsletters and zero subscribers.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by alisa4804 » Fri May 04, 2018 11:52 pm

Victoria, today you have overcome "bad breath"
and are again in 1st place!
Congrats!

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