REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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rarvesen
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REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:38 am

NOTE TO EVERYONE: IF YOU DON'T USE THE NEW AUTOMATIC REGISTRATION FORM AS INDICATED BELOW, YOU'RE NOT ENTERED. FOLLOW DIRECTIONS IF YOU WANT TO ENTER.

Taylor asked me to announce our new automatic registration for the annual contest. Instead of entering your guess here, you will need to enter your guess using the contest entry form. This will make it easier to collect all of the entries and remove the manual process associated with collecting entries. I tried to make it as easy as possible, hopefully everyone finds it easy to enter. This is the first time trying this, so there might be some issues to work through, let me know if you run into any problems.

You can access the contest entry form at the tracking site:
https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/

Or, directly at (both go to the same form):
https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/entry.html

Rules
  • Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2018.
  • Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
  • In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
  • Registration ends 12:00 midnight EDT, January 10, 2018.

Happy New Year and good luck! Thanks,
Ralph Aversen
Last edited by rarvesen on Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

EyeDee
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Re: Registration For 2018 Boglehead Contest

Post by EyeDee » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:07 pm

.
Ralph,

Nice changes. Particularly the dropping of the wild guesses from the averages. Although I do not submit a guess, I do enjoy watching the process during the year.

To provide a link to the details of the changes: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=236261
Randy

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rarvesen
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Re: Registration For 2018 Boglehead Contest

Post by rarvesen » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:09 pm

EyeDee wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:07 pm
.
Ralph,

Nice changes. Particularly the dropping of the wild guesses from the averages. Although I do not submit a guess, I do enjoy watching the process during the year.

To provide a link to the details of the changes: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=236261
Thanks Randy, I appreciate the comment.
--
ralph

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:19 pm

Thank you, Ralph.

The spreadsheet is a great idea, but the entries can be made by anyone. In order to keep things honest and avoid mistakes, may I recommend that members also post their guesses in this thread?

If someone makes a typo in the username, the forum post can be used to authenticate the entry. Since Ralph does not permit changes, entries in the spreadsheet supersede forum posts.

I would also suggest that Ralph have editorial control of the comments - to remove at his discretion.

My entry has been submitted: 3,210.98
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FreeAtLast
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FreeAtLast » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:25 pm

2165.62.
Bearish for another year; someday I will be correct.

Edit: Also posted with the Google Form
Last edited by FreeAtLast on Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Illegitimi non carborundum.

sandramjet
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sandramjet » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:42 pm

2792.12, and I really hope it is much too low!

Silverado
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Silverado » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:50 pm

2913.53 (in form also)
Last edited by Silverado on Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

acanthurus
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Removed

Post by acanthurus » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:54 pm

Removed
Last edited by acanthurus on Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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cfs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cfs » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:54 pm

3003.30
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

investorpeter
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by investorpeter » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:58 pm

3074.65

Plan4tomorrow
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Plan4tomorrow » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:04 pm

2520.30

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walletless
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by walletless » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:07 pm

2384.01
Just a random guess 😂

johnbarry
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by johnbarry » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:09 pm

2432.11

amitb00
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by amitb00 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:10 pm

3223.54

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:16 pm

entries can be made by anyone
I thought about that also and it's a valid concern. The Google Form helps several issues and I was hoping valid-users would not be a problem, but if it looks like it's a problem, then I can write something that validates each user back to the Boglehead Forum... not sure how yet.

also post their guesses in this thread
In my opinion, posting guesses in this thread will make it more confusing, I suspect some people will only post to this thread and wonder why their entry is not included. But if people want to also post to this thread, I don't think that is a problem.

does not permit changes
I turned on the ability to edit submissions on the form, I did not know that was an option :-)

In the past, posting entries to the forum thread was very time consuming and error prone, I could write a script that collected entries from the thread, but I could not be sure it was 100% accurate. The Google Form helps since all of the entries are collected in one area and it's very easy to update the tracking site.

I'm willing to do whatever works out best for everyone.

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JamesSFO
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JamesSFO » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:26 pm

Submitted, thanks, I would say if using the form a mod or should go through this thread and mark entries that are being placed here w/ a note saying it won't be entered or someone should quote them and let them know they need to submit.

Form is much better!

dotstar
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by dotstar » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:27 pm

2841.59786783

ABQ4804
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ABQ4804 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:43 pm

2822.69 is my random guess - already submitted using the new 2018 form, to spreadsheet.

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bligh
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bligh » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:53 pm

I consulted my psychic astrologer. I then cross checked her answer with my tarot car picking parrot as well as asked my uncle who can read tea leaves.

It is confirmed. The S&P 500 will close at 2922.44 on the last day of 2018.

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:03 pm

rarvesen wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:16 pm
entries can be made by anyone
I thought about that also and it's a valid concern. The Google Form helps several issues and I was hoping valid-users would not be a problem, but if it looks like it's a problem, then I can write something that validates each user back to the Boglehead Forum... not sure how yet.
Early in the contest, I see a problem. Someone entered their email address instead of a username.

As a site admin, I know who this is and sent you a PM to correct the entry manually. I recommend validating the form so members can't enter anything containing an email address, e.g . contains "@" in the username.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mudpuppy » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:07 pm

rarvesen wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:16 pm
entries can be made by anyone
I thought about that also and it's a valid concern. The Google Form helps several issues and I was hoping valid-users would not be a problem, but if it looks like it's a problem, then I can write something that validates each user back to the Boglehead Forum... not sure how yet.
You can look up usernames with the Member List page when logged in: memberlist.php. Automating a search through that page would be painful though. I can't seem to find a way to programmatically access the "Find a member" search on that page.

If the user has made a post, the Advanced Search by author could be programmatically accessed and used to validate the user. For example, to find all of my posts, one would use search.php?author=Mudpuppy. When the user has no posts, the search returns "No suitable matches were found." For example, searching for the non-existent author Mudp would be the following URL: search.php?author=Mudp

nodenuff2
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by nodenuff2 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:09 pm

2849.41
2014 No. 42 2015 No.342 2016 No. 6 2017 238 what do I know? "Good bless America land that I love..."

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oldzey
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by oldzey » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:13 pm

2986.42 (also posted via the Google Form)

Thanks!
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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sergeant
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sergeant » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:42 pm

1984.73 Posted on form too.
Last edited by sergeant on Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Lincoln 3 EOW!

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CyclingDuo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:50 pm

2997.38
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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warowits
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by warowits » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:06 am

2555.55
There are an army of people whose pay checks depend on convincing people to invest in ways that are against their self interest. This forum is the volunteer army that fights back!

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saltycaper
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by saltycaper » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:58 am

2,718.28, naturally
Quod vitae sectabor iter?

renter
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by renter » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:15 am

2539.54

david
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by david » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:24 am

3014.83

sauron22333
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sauron22333 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:09 am

2897.7

charis23
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by charis23 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:31 am

First time trying this. My guess is 3208.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mudpuppy » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:34 am

I hope everyone who is guessing in this thread is also filling out the entry form, as stated in the instructions at the top of the thread.

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Kalo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Kalo » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:42 am

2897.45

Posted to the form in the link too.

I came up with this number while under the influence of alcohol. True story.

Kalo
"When people say they have a high risk tolerance, what they really mean is that they are willing to make a lot of money." -- Ben Stein/Phil DeMuth - The Little Book of Bullet Proof Investing.

Engineer250
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Engineer250 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:45 am

Submitted. 2971.36.

I re-interpreted some Nostradamus texts and there will be no bear this year.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Christine_NM
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Christine_NM » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:06 am

Rows 189 and 190 on the spreadsheet are identical, both mine -- sorry about that. Feel free to delete one. Or delete both and I will resubmit the form.
17% cash 47% stock 36% bond. Retired, w/d rate 2.85%

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Rick Ferri
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Rick Ferri » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:57 am

Thanks for reminding me to use the form!
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FreeAtLast
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FreeAtLast » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:46 am

saltycaper wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:58 am
2,718.28, naturally
I just logged in to the Forum and do appreciate your exponentially clear choice. 8-)
Illegitimi non carborundum.

barnaclebob
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by barnaclebob » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:58 am

2525.00 going to go with last years guess

Hope I'm wrong and I really hope I don't wish i was right!

SGM
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SGM » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:59 am

3100 even. I am optimistic. I convinced someone in my breakfast bunch to compete. So go high stock buyers so that I can have bragging rights later this year over just another w.a.g. 8-)

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saltycaper
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by saltycaper » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:03 am

FreeAtLast wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:46 am
saltycaper wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:58 am
2,718.28, naturally
I just logged in to the Forum and do appreciate your exponentially clear choice. 8-)
I can't take all the decision-making credit. My number practically derived itself.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?

Wricha
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Wricha » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:55 am

Put me down for 2885.01

FinancialDave
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FinancialDave » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:59 am

I have entered 2967.67 on the form.
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:09 am

Christine_NM wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:06 am
Rows 189 and 190 on the spreadsheet are identical, both mine -- sorry about that. Feel free to delete one. Or delete both and I will resubmit the form.
Hi Christine - I took care of this, you are in good shape.

gypsydavey
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gypsydavey » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:49 am

2877.40

A well considered SWAG.

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JPH
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JPH » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:08 pm

2720.49
While the moments do summersaults into eternity | Cling to their coattails and beg them to stay - Townes Van Zandt

Apophis
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Apophis » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:19 pm

2914.33 Hopefully I am below target once again :sharebeer

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Majormajor78
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Majormajor78 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:27 pm

2391.49
"Oh, M. le Comte, it is only a loss of money which I have sustained... nothing worth mentioning, I assure you."

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hornet96
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by hornet96 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:44 pm

2974.75

mrtiger
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mrtiger » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:30 pm

Last few years were great so I don't expect much, if anything at all. 2798.68

mrtiger
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mrtiger » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:34 pm

Last few years were great so I don't expect much, if anything at all. 2798.68

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