Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

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selters
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Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by selters » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:54 pm

I was actually considering putting some play money into a 15x leveraged s&p 500 bear product 10 minutes before the close of today's trading day. But I didn't...

On the last day of each quarter in the last couple of years, there's been a sharp sell-off in the S&P 500 in the last few minutes of the trading day. Ok, maybe not every time, but this type of sell-off has happened many times on the last trading day of each quarter in the last few years.

Let's put reasons for these selloffs aside and assume that this will happen again next quarter with 100% certainty. What is the best way to make money from it? In the real world you can't know these things with 100% certainty, so what about a "very likely" scenario, where you want to bet some play money, but don't want to get completely slaughtered in case you are wrong?

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:10 pm

selters wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:54 pm
Let's put reasons for these selloffs aside and assume that this will happen again next quarter with 100% certainty. What is the best way to make money from it?
Buy the dip.
:mrgreen:
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Peter Foley
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Re: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by Peter Foley » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:30 pm

Buy an S&P 500 put or sell an S&P 500 call. This is almost pure gambling, not investing. I gave up on puts and calls 20 years ago.

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Leesbro63
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Re: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by Leesbro63 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:31 pm

This will work until you actually bet on it.

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jmndu99
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Re: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by jmndu99 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:51 pm

Leesbro63 wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:31 pm
This will work until you actually bet on it.
Nice

venkman
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Re: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by venkman » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:53 pm

selters wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:54 pm
Let's put reasons for these selloffs aside and assume that this will happen again next quarter with 100% certainty. What is the best way to make money from it? In the real world you can't know these things with 100% certainty, so what about a "very likely" scenario, where you want to bet some play money, but don't want to get completely slaughtered in case you are wrong?
So, basically, you want the higher return of this scenario, but without having to take the corresponding higher risk?

I think the traditional way to do it is to start a hedge fund, gamble with other people's money, and take a big chunk off the top if you win... :happy

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g$$
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Re: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by g$$ » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:58 am

Sell futures or purchase some out of the money puts.

Enjoy your 100% guaranteed return :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

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whodidntante
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Re: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

Post by whodidntante » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:19 am

Well, first, refinance all your major assets to get as much cash out as possible. Pawn jewelry. Also, max all your revolving credit lines. Borrow from friends, family, and your friendly loan shark. Ask your employer for an advance. Take a 401k loan. Get a payday loan. Load all that into your portfolio margin account. Now, short s&p 500 e-minis to the limits, and close the position in extended hours trading, because we don't know the outcome of end of the quarter+1 day. Now unwind your leverage.

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