Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by user5027 »

Just came across an interesting read this morning...

As the once-scrappy Malvern company approaches $5 trillion in assets, even founder Jack Bogle has to wonder: Has Vanguard simply gotten too big?

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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by oldzey »

Thanks for sharing, user5027!
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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Too big for what?
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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What is the definition of "big"?
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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How do I obtain a Bogle Bobblehead? 8-)
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by nisiprius »

Good article, user5027, thanks for sharing.

Vanguard is four big, approaching five big. Is five bigger than too?
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by BolderBoy »

At the October 2017 BH conference, Mr Bogle wasn't much concerned about VG's approaching $5T in assets.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by Hockey10 »

Quote from Mr. Bogle in the article:

“If the market return is seven percent, the active manager gives you five after that two percent cost, and the index fund gives you 6.96 after that four basis-point cost,” Bogle recently explained to the podcast Freakonomics. “You don’t appreciate it much in a year — but over 50 years, a dollar invested at seven percent grows to around $32, and a dollar invested at five percent grows to about $10. :moneybag
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by peppers »

Take it easy folks.

As of Oct 2017, BlackRock had an AUM of 5.9 trillion.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blac ... SKBN1CG18M
So.......which one is going to take out Fidelity? :happy
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by Christine_NM »

I have to laugh at the response to Jack's speculation that Vgd has gotten too big -- "He has not been CEO for over 20 years, " what does he know.

That response is a better statement of the problem than asset size. Jack is not in management and the ethos is changing. Vgd has done great by me but I am adding no money to it now and taking out all distributions.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by gouverneur »

Hadn't heard about that tax lawsuit before, not sure what to make of that . . .
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by selters »

I've raised the same question before, but not many Bogleheads agree when I say that there is a limit to how big Vanguard can become before some systemic problems might arise. If Vanguard continues to grow like they have in since the financial crisis, Vanguard will own 20-30% of all shares in all US publicly traded stocks a decade from now. Maybe that is not a problem.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by Mel Lindauer »

FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:29 am How do I obtain a Bogle Bobblehead? 8-)
Taylor has posted that he'd sell his for a $5000 donation to The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by mickeyd »

If VG is getting too large, all of you guys need to consider bailing out and swimming over to the Fido boat over there. I will be glad to stay until the last of you have departed and I will also turn to lights out when I finally bail out.
Last edited by mickeyd on Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by David Jay »

gouverneur wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:05 pmHadn't heard about that tax lawsuit before, not sure what to make of that . . .
Discussed "ad-nauseam" (direct quote from a news article) here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=143686
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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Vanguard is large, and it is getting larger, but nobody has provided a convincing argument that it is too large.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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Thank you for sharing.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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After $5 TRILLION comes $6 TRILLION!
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by FreeAtLast »

Mel Lindauer wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:18 pm
FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:29 am How do I obtain a Bogle Bobblehead? 8-)
Taylor has posted that he'd sell his for a $5000 donation to The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy.
Mel -

As much as I respect Taylor, his offer is a little too rich for my blood. I think I will search eBay and maybe I will get lucky.

Free
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by Mel Lindauer »

FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:07 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:18 pm
FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:29 am How do I obtain a Bogle Bobblehead? 8-)
Taylor has posted that he'd sell his for a $5000 donation to The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy.
Mel -

As much as I respect Taylor, his offer is a little too rich for my blood. I think I will search eBay and maybe I will get lucky.

Free
I understand. However, I already have mine, so I might think differently if I didn't. Have you tried to negotiate with Taylor?
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by FreeAtLast »

Mel Lindauer wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:20 pm
FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:07 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:18 pm
FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:29 am How do I obtain a Bogle Bobblehead? 8-)
Taylor has posted that he'd sell his for a $5000 donation to The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy.
Mel -

As much as I respect Taylor, his offer is a little too rich for my blood. I think I will search eBay and maybe I will get lucky.

Free
I understand. However, I already have mine, so I might think differently if I didn't. Have you tried to negotiate with Taylor?
No. If Taylor wants $5,000, he should get $5,000.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by beyou »

Larger firms should have more resources to improve their infrastructure.
One of the biggest problems with small-mid size asset management firms is they can't afford all the things they need
to operate efficiently and effectively. There is a great deal that goes on behind the scenes in the actual management of the funds,
that requires huge investment, such as trading systems, research, buying market data. The cost in some cases is fixed so the larger the assets,
the more the cost can be spread among fund shareholders (or the more investment advisors can cut fees and still profit).

How one handles growth that outpaces the ability to upgrade infrastructure is they key (and how fast/smart one upgrades infrastructure).
That is a matter of management competency, not a matter of how big. Blackrock and Vanguard have both grown fast for a long time.
Blackrock has a reputation of investing in tech, much more than Vanguard. I hope Vanguard gets smart about this.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:29 am How do I obtain a Bogle Bobblehead? 8-)
I don't know why Vanguard doesn't manufacture them and sell them. I'm sure they would be a big hit. I wish I had one for my shrine to St. Jack.

Over the years I started bidding on autographs on ebay. Warren Buffett was very hard to get at a reasonable price but I did mange to get one. I also got Jack's autograph and Charlie Munger. When I have time I'm bringing all photos and autographs to a framing place to do something with them. I plan to call it the Mt. Rushmore of Investing. The Bobblehead would be great to add to that.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

thanks for posting. haven't finished reading it yet but interesting so far.

just heard on Barry Ritholtz Masters in Business podcast an interview with Ric Edelman. Ric said with the amount of money invested around the world even the largest players like Vanguard have a tiny share of the entire market. Think about it. The podcast is below if you want to hear for yourself (as well as a link to how much money is invested throughout the world. Compare that to the $5 trillion of it that Vanguard has). So while size can matter from a management perspective (it may be harder to manage more money), it can still be a small share of the overall market of money invested.There's 73 trillion just in the global stock market (not including bonds or other investments). So $5 trilion (at vanguard) is just 6% of the total global stock marketplace. They're part of the puzzle but by no means the only player. Even Blackrock has 6 trillion which is more than Vanguard has, but nobody ever seems to mention that. Vanguard is always the punching bag.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/20 ... -consumers

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... 2015-12-18
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by Small Law Survivor »

Observations re Vanguard's new CEO are disturbing - a bad sign, IMHO.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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Code: Select all

Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine
 by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:00 am 
Too big for what?
As my late, great father used to say, "Don't get too big for your britches, son."

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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by BlackHat »

Small Law Survivor wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:51 am Observations re Vanguard's new CEO are disturbing - a bad sign, IMHO.
Can you please elaborate? I'm just curious.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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Small Law Survivor wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:51 am Observations re Vanguard's new CEO are disturbing - a bad sign, IMHO.
Agreed. Who knows what really goes on though? Vanguard's PR department doesn't seem to be doing them any favors.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

BlackHat wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:12 am
Small Law Survivor wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:51 am Observations re Vanguard's new CEO are disturbing - a bad sign, IMHO.
Can you please elaborate? I'm just curious.
just finished the article. probably referring to this:
“What to say about Tim?” Bogle tells me. “He gets things done. He’s very good on technology and all that. He, like all of us, still has a lot to learn. You never know quite how a CEO is going to behave. People tell me he does not do a lot of communicating. Communicating is something a chief executive has to do.”

(Buckley wouldn’t communicate with me [John Marchese, writer of this article]. Vanguard’s top PR people declined repeated requests for an interview with him for this story. When I tried to approach him at the investment conference in New York where he’d just sat for nearly an hour of questions from a friendly business associate, Vanguard’s head of PR shot at me as she ran interference: “He’s not giving any interviews.”)
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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I found the article interesting. I wasn't aware that Jack left the helm under such circumstances, but then why have a mandatory retirement age if you don't want it to be mandatory for everyone? For Jack to say he thought they would make an exception for the founder, well why not write that into the bylaws/charter/or whatever rules they established for mandatory retirement age? That would have been easy to do unless he couldn't get the board to agree to that. But to assume mandatory retirement age didn't apply to him was a mistake and ultimately cost him his job. Sounds like a painful and unfortunate time for both Jack and his successor, Brennan who "wouldn’t speak to him or look him in the eye."
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by BlackHat »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:34 am
BlackHat wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:12 am
Small Law Survivor wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:51 am Observations re Vanguard's new CEO are disturbing - a bad sign, IMHO.
Can you please elaborate? I'm just curious.
just finished the article. probably referring to this:
“What to say about Tim?” Bogle tells me. “He gets things done. He’s very good on technology and all that. He, like all of us, still has a lot to learn. You never know quite how a CEO is going to behave. People tell me he does not do a lot of communicating. Communicating is something a chief executive has to do.”

(Buckley wouldn’t communicate with me [John Marchese, writer of this article]. Vanguard’s top PR people declined repeated requests for an interview with him for this story. When I tried to approach him at the investment conference in New York where he’d just sat for nearly an hour of questions from a friendly business associate, Vanguard’s head of PR shot at me as she ran interference: “He’s not giving any interviews.”)
That is concerning that a new CEO is somewhat antisocial. That's like the polar opposite of Bill McNabb.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

BlackHat wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:13 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:34 am
BlackHat wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:12 am
Small Law Survivor wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:51 am Observations re Vanguard's new CEO are disturbing - a bad sign, IMHO.
Can you please elaborate? I'm just curious.
just finished the article. probably referring to this:
“What to say about Tim?” Bogle tells me. “He gets things done. He’s very good on technology and all that. He, like all of us, still has a lot to learn. You never know quite how a CEO is going to behave. People tell me he does not do a lot of communicating. Communicating is something a chief executive has to do.”

(Buckley wouldn’t communicate with me [John Marchese, writer of this article]. Vanguard’s top PR people declined repeated requests for an interview with him for this story. When I tried to approach him at the investment conference in New York where he’d just sat for nearly an hour of questions from a friendly business associate, Vanguard’s head of PR shot at me as she ran interference: “He’s not giving any interviews.”)
That is concerning that a new CEO is somewhat antisocial. That's like the polar opposite of Bill McNabb.
The following it not a critique of your comment, per se but rather meant to be informative/educational. I know you're using the term "antisocial" loosely, but because the word antisocial is an actual definition of a psychological mental disorder (a personality disorder to be precise) and one that usually describes people who have no empathy, no conscience, etc. (as an example Charles Manson was diagnosed with antisocial personality disorder) I don't think we should be flippant using psychological terms.

That being said, he may not be as generous with his time, information, etc. or he may not be as sociable as other CEOs, that may be true. He may also just be more cautious and aware that words can often be parsed, misinterpreted, misreported, etc. The less he says, the less chance of having to correct, or expand on original comments, etc. It is important for CEOs to communicate. But when, why and how are the important parts. It's quite possible there's nothing new regarding the future direction of vanguard (that's an assumption on my part) and when there is, that will be the time to share that information. We'll have to see what happens. That's also why there's a board of directors (did you all vote your proxies?) to make sure that the CEO is doing what needs to be done (including sufficient communication).
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by randomizer »

stemikger wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:08 am
FreeAtLast wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:29 am How do I obtain a Bogle Bobblehead? 8-)
I don't know why Vanguard doesn't manufacture them and sell them. I'm sure they would be a big hit. I wish I had one for my shrine to St. Jack.

Over the years I started bidding on autographs on ebay. Warren Buffett was very hard to get at a reasonable price but I did mange to get one. I also got Jack's autograph and Charlie Munger. When I have time I'm bringing all photos and autographs to a framing place to do something with them. I plan to call it the Mt. Rushmore of Investing. The Bobblehead would be great to add to that.
I'd rather they just focus on their core business and keep their costs low.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by birdsong »

I drank the kool-aid 20 years ago. I'm most appreciative to Mr. Bogle and to the Vanguard staff. My Flagship rep is great and the other flagship people have always been very helpful when I needed help or questions answered.

Who knows what the future will bring for Vanguard but I'm with them for life. When I compare gains to my American Funds (the few I still have) only one fund--New Perspective has been a better very long term winner.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by Sandtrap »

Wonderful article. Great depth.
Grabber title but great read through and through.
Love the mention of the forum.
Thank you for posting.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by Mel Lindauer »

For balance, I think it's important to note that I invited Vanguard's new CEO, Tim Buckley to address our group during the 2017 Bogleheads Conference visit to Vanguard.

Tim was in London at the time of our visit and obviously couldn't appear in person, but he did take the time to film a video address to our group which was played during our visit to Vanguard.

Personally, I think Tim will make an outstanding CEO. I look forward to his guidance at the helm of the HMS Vanguard.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

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arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 am I found the article interesting. I wasn't aware that Jack left the helm under such circumstances, but then why have a mandatory retirement age if you don't want it to be mandatory for everyone? For Jack to say he thought they would make an exception for the founder, well why not write that into the bylaws/charter/or whatever rules they established for mandatory retirement age? That would have been easy to do unless he couldn't get the board to agree to that. But to assume mandatory retirement age didn't apply to him was a mistake and ultimately cost him his job. Sounds like a painful and unfortunate time for both Jack and his successor, Brennan who "wouldn’t speak to him or look him in the eye."
Mr Bogle told us at the October 2017 BH conference that he and "VG" have kissed and made up. And from what I've read, Mr Buckley had most of his early grooming at VG under the direct tutelage of Mr Bogle.

I expect that Mr Buckley will be a swell Master of the Crew.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

BolderBoy wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:36 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 am I found the article interesting. I wasn't aware that Jack left the helm under such circumstances, but then why have a mandatory retirement age if you don't want it to be mandatory for everyone? For Jack to say he thought they would make an exception for the founder, well why not write that into the bylaws/charter/or whatever rules they established for mandatory retirement age? That would have been easy to do unless he couldn't get the board to agree to that. But to assume mandatory retirement age didn't apply to him was a mistake and ultimately cost him his job. Sounds like a painful and unfortunate time for both Jack and his successor, Brennan who "wouldn’t speak to him or look him in the eye."
Mr Bogle told us at the October 2017 BH conference that he and "VG" have kissed and made up. And from what I've read, Mr Buckley had most of his early grooming at VG under the direct tutelage of Mr Bogle.

I expect that Mr Buckley will be a swell Master of the Crew.
that's good to know. I've been listening to him since the late 1990s and the only negative thing I remember him saying was about ETFs, which eventually Vanguard got into themselves. I vaguely remember hearing his stepping down from Vanguard wasn't smooth, but I didn't know some of the details until know (that it revolved around the fact he had arrived at the company's mandatory retirement age and that's why he had to step down). I'm sure Tim will be a fine CEO and I wish him the best. Afterall, my money's riding on it, isn't it?

I'm still waiting for the article titled, "Blackrock's $6,000,000,000,000 Question".
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"Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question"

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

The Philadelphia Inquirer recently published this excellent article about Jack Bogle and Vanguard.

Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ Taylor,

I moved your post into the earlier discussion.
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Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

Post by denovo »

The next bear market could easily erase a trillion off that.
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Re: "Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question"

Post by Toons »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:10 pm Bogleheads:

The Philadelphia Inquirer recently published this excellent article about Jack Bogle and Vanguard.

Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question

Best wishes.
Taylor
Thanks for the link,
Excellent :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
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