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Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
by tadamsmar
Lost ~1/3 today.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:30 am
by Drew31
Hilarious...I just thought I wonder if we need a Bitcoin in freefall thread. Refreshed Bogleheads and there it is!

Just read something that said down 40% from record

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:31 am
by livesoft

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:32 am
by PVW
This is amazing to watch in real time. I'm not sure which way I'm rooting for - I don't have anything riding on the outcome.

I've been watching the trading chart on gdax. 8:35AM high was about $13,000. 9:20 low was about $10400. Now it's back up to $12000. 20% swings up and down in less than an hour.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:35 am
by oldcomputerguy
PVW wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:32 am
This is amazing to watch in real time. I'm not sure which way I'm rooting for - I don't have anything riding on the outcome.

I've been watching the trading chart on gdax. 8:35AM high was about $13,000. 9:20 low was about $10400. Now it's back up to $12000. 20% swings up and down in less than an hour.
Wow. Maybe someone should offer BitBonds to smooth out the volatility. :twisted:

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:36 am
by aristotelian
PVW wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:32 am
This is amazing to watch in real time. I'm not sure which way I'm rooting for - I don't have anything riding on the outcome.
Probably a good thing for the investing public to be reminded that prices can't keep going up forever and there is no free lunch in investing.

Down to 11,000 in the last 10 minutes. It can actually go down faster than it has gone up, if you can believe that.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:41 am
by alpine_boglehead
aristotelian wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:36 am
PVW wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:32 am
This is amazing to watch in real time. I'm not sure which way I'm rooting for - I don't have anything riding on the outcome.
Probably a good thing for the investing public to be reminded that prices can't keep going up forever and there is no free lunch in investing.

Down to 11,000 in the last 10 minutes. It can actually go down faster than it has gone up, if you can believe that.
If anyone thought that stocks were risky ... :oops:

There's nothing like a good old crash to turn greed into fear.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:55 am
by 1210sda
aristotelian wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:36 am
PVW wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:32 am
This is amazing to watch in real time. I'm not sure which way I'm rooting for - I don't have anything riding on the outcome.
Probably a good thing for the investing public to be reminded that prices can't keep going up forever and there is no free lunch in investing.

Down to 11,000 in the last 10 minutes. It can actually go down faster than it has gone up, if you can believe that.
I don't have anything riding on the outcome either, but it's good to see the concept of sensible investing and "staying the course" is still on firm foundation.
1210

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:00 am
by TheTimeLord
It is interesting seeing the reaction here given this isn't an uncommon event in the world of Bitcoin. So I would guess if you want to own Bitcoin you need to be prepared for these types of events on a regular basis.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee ... 6aabfc4039

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:03 am
by Broken Man 1999
Funny thing, my oldest daughter asked me yesterday if she should put a little bit into bitcoin. I told her what I had read about the "whales" who could move the market in wild swings, obliterating the "minnow's" bitcoins worth. How so few "whales" owned such a high percentage of the various cybercurrencies, easy to move the market in any direction.

I just sent her the link, thanks tadamsmar!

That should give a bit of credence to my warning.

Broken Man 1999

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:03 am
by lolbatross
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:00 am
It is interesting seeing the reaction here given this isn't an uncommon event in the world of Bitcoin. So I would guess if you want to own Bitcoin you need to be prepared for these types of events on a regular basis.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee ... 6aabfc4039
Image

Similar one from Bloomberg.

Ain't nothing yet.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:05 am
by lolbatross
It's also interesting to note that the S&P500 is flat so far - some evidence that there is little correlation? some evidence that there is no possibility of a spill over?

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:11 am
by randomizer
Pass me the popcorn.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
by Valuethinker
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.

Any word as to what is going on?

Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons?

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:14 am
by Valuethinker
lolbatross wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:05 am
It's also interesting to note that the S&P500 is flat so far - some evidence that there is little correlation? some evidence that there is no possibility of a spill over?
Given the relative market volumes & values of the 2 assets it's really difficult to make assertions about the lack of correlation of one v. the other.

When you have the volatility bitcoin has shown this year, I am not sure a correlation coefficient tells you much, in any case.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:15 am
by oldcomputerguy
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons?
Just my $0.02 worth, I think it's more likely panic.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:16 am
by RRAAYY3
Heard guys last night at the bar talking about investing everything into Bitcoin - even trying to get the bartender to “join” them because it’s “the future”

I can’t wait for this nonsense to collapse - it’s just so beyond stupid

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:17 am
by oldcomputerguy
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.
Well, according to my calculator, today's volume as of 10:17 AM is almost 9% of the total market cap of Bitcoin, I'd say that's at least signficant volume.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:19 am
by lolbatross
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:14 am
lolbatross wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:05 am
It's also interesting to note that the S&P500 is flat so far - some evidence that there is little correlation? some evidence that there is no possibility of a spill over?
Given the relative market volumes & values of the 2 assets it's really difficult to make assertions about the lack of correlation of one v. the other.

When you have the volatility bitcoin has shown this year, I am not sure a correlation coefficient tells you much, in any case.
I am mostly prodding people who were fearful of bitcoin having any impact on the equity markets. I think we are far from that because as you point out the size differences.

I'm wondering what had more impact on this apparent lack of confidence - Roger Ver + coinbase collusion & insider trading rumors or Long Blockchain Iced Tea?

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:20 am
by PVW
lolbatross wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:03 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:00 am
It is interesting seeing the reaction here given this isn't an uncommon event in the world of Bitcoin. So I would guess if you want to own Bitcoin you need to be prepared for these types of events on a regular basis.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee ... 6aabfc4039
Image

Similar one from Bloomberg.

Ain't nothing yet.
But also note the current Bitcoin market cap. It's about $300 billion today, so today's price swings are more than the entire market cap at the 2013 peak (about $13 billion).

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:22 am
by WhyNotUs
Can you explain its rise?
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

Any word as to what is going on?

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:22 am
by Will do good
Wait, it's time to buy on discount :oops:

/s

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:27 am
by Keepcalm
Will do good wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:22 am
Wait, it's time to buy on discount :oops:

/s
I just bought the dip. Weeeeeeeeeeee!

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:32 am
by tadamsmar
WhyNotUs wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:22 am
Can you explain its rise?
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

Any word as to what is going on?

There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange filed for bankruptcy within hours of being hacked.

Exchanges with inadequate security and inadequate insurance.

This might be a factor.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:35 am
by aristotelian
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.

Any word as to what is going on?

Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons?
Panic because another major exchange got hacked.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:39 am
by alpine_boglehead
John Bogle: The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.

And so is Bitcoin. :)

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:40 am
by tadamsmar
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.

Any word as to what is going on?

Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons?
There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange filed for bankruptcy within hours of being hacked.

Exchanges with inadequate security and inadequate insurance.

This might be a factor.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:41 am
by Keepcalm
I bought in at -35% it’s now back to -5%

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:44 am
by TheTimeLord
Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:41 am
I bought in at -35% it’s now back to -5%
Not according to Coinbase.
−15.89%
SINCE YESTERDAY (%)

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:44 am
by Keepcalm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:44 am
Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:41 am
I bought in at -35% it’s now back to -5%
Not according to Coinbase.
−15.89%
SINCE YESTERDAY (%)
GBTC

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:45 am
by flyingaway
Most people playing with bitcoin do not understand what it is. They are just gambling. Even in Las Vegas, you will see some winning gamblers.
I am thinking to sell all integer numbers that can be summed to 1 billion. Those numbers are finite and known (already mined). Who wants to buy?

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:50 am
by david
Livesoft, is this an RBD for BTC? Alt-coins? I think we need an official ruling.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:59 am
by lolbatross
alpine_boglehead wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:39 am
John Bogle: The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.

And so is Bitcoin. :)
Bitcoin distracts me from tinkering and otherwise not staying the course. :beer

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:06 am
by TheTimeLord
Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:44 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:44 am
Keepcalm wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:41 am
I bought in at -35% it’s now back to -5%
Not according to Coinbase.
−15.89%
SINCE YESTERDAY (%)
GBTC
That makes sense, the premium on that was absurd.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:07 am
by TheTimeLord
david wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:50 am
Livesoft, is this an RBD for BTC? Alt-coins? I think we need an official ruling.
Livesoft will only respond if you call it Tulipcoin.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:09 am
by dccboone
Eddie Murphy described this sme situation in Trading Places - just replace "porkbellies" with Bitcoin. Enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiwa

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:09 am
by tadamsmar
There is lots of speculation on why it crashed.

I say it was because Bitcoin's quarterly earnings outlook was bleak.

:twisted:

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:14 am
by lolbatross
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:09 am
There is lots of speculation on why it crashed.

I say it was because analysts said that Bitcoin's quarterly earnings outlook was bleak.

:twisted:
Good point. BTC is only up 195% since October 1. Seems the market had priced in several hard fork dividends but now are projecting only a few.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:15 am
by WL2034
What is the most accurate way to track BTC price? I'm finding sites that are varying +/- $1k instantaneously.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:25 am
by tadamsmar
lolbatross wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:14 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:09 am
There is lots of speculation on why it crashed.

I say it was because analysts said that Bitcoin's quarterly earnings outlook was bleak.

:twisted:
Good point. BTC is only up 195% since October 1. Seems the market had priced in several hard fork dividends but now are projecting only a few.
I'd say it's time for the Bitcoin's board of directors to put the Founder out to pasture, if they can figure out who he/she is.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:32 am
by livesoft
david wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:50 am
Livesoft, is this an RBD for BTC? Alt-coins? I think we need an official ruling.
BTC is not in my RBD universe, but you can start your own Newsletter and make millions!

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:34 am
by fanmail
what goes up 2650% in 1 year must come down

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:38 am
by Valuethinker
WhyNotUs wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:22 am
Can you explain its rise?
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

Any word as to what is going on?
Its rise has not happened in one day, has it?

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:41 am
by Valuethinker
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:40 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.

Any word as to what is going on?

Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons?
There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange filed for bankruptcy within hours of being hacked.

Exchanges with inadequate security and inadequate insurance.

This might be a factor.
Thank you.

Characteristic of a thinly traded market, and one where no one really has an idea of fundamental value.

Contrast that to NYSE after 9-11, where it was shut for 5 days due to infrastructure damage. But whilst the shock was very real, on average the market realized it would not radically change the value of most companies.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:41 am
by Valuethinker
aristotelian wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:35 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.

Any word as to what is going on?

Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons?
Panic because another major exchange got hacked.
Thank you.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:42 am
by Valuethinker
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:17 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.
Well, according to my calculator, today's volume as of 10:17 AM is almost 9% of the total market cap of Bitcoin, I'd say that's at least signficant volume.
Agreed. But is that a few big selling orders or general 2 way trade?

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:45 am
by Lauretta
I will probably buy some tonight (a tiny bit, and for the first time in my life), taking advantage of the fall, though probably this time is as good as any as there seem to be no idea of its value...

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:52 am
by fatlever
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:40 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:13 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Lost ~1/3 today.
But why?

That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume.

Any word as to what is going on?

Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons?
There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange filed for bankruptcy within hours of being hacked.

Exchanges with inadequate security and inadequate insurance.

This might be a factor.
There is a LOT of market manipulation and shady things going on and a complete all out war between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. It appears Roger Ver an early Bitcoin investor who supports Bitcoin Cash and may have close to a million Bitcoin knew of Coinbase adding Bitcoin Cash. He announced he was selling all his Bitcoin for Bitcoin Cash just right before the Coinbase change. Also, it appears Coinbase employees leaked this and profited greatly from this. Coinbase is investigating this. Roger Ver got on CNBC and said he said "insider trading is a non-crime" :moneybag

Adding to that Coinbase pegged the trading of Bitcoin Cash price to .2 Bitcoin and the selling off of Bitcoin Cash that Coinbase users suddenly got access plummeted Bitcoin prices. Then when Bitcoin tanks it takes the whole crypto market with it. Coinbase then disabled trading between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. But once panic sets in :mrgreen:

The whole point of Bitcoin Cash is to attack Bitcoin and claim itself as the real Bitcoin so I think kind of thing will continue.

All this has been very entertaining, profitable and I've learned quite a bit about new tech and how digital programmable assets might change things in the future.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:53 am
by DaftInvestor
It was only a matter of time.
Now if one of the trading vehicles gets hacked again at this point then we will really see it crash down to 0.

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:57 am
by WL2034
livesoft wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:32 am
david wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:50 am
Livesoft, is this an RBD for BTC? Alt-coins? I think we need an official ruling.
BTC is not in my RBD universe, but you can start your own Newsletter and make millions!
I don't even follow cryptocurrency beyond what the bitcoin price is every 1-2 weeks and I personally know of 2 newsletters, 1 blog, and 3 youtube channels about crypto that have started in the past 3 months. So if you want to start a newsletter, better hurry--market is becoming saturated!