Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

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1nv35t
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by 1nv35t » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:02 pm

grayfox, do you know of any instances of someone buying a gold Options contract and opting to take physical delivery at expiry of that contract?

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grayfox
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:32 pm

1nv35t wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:02 pm
grayfox, do you know of any instances of someone buying a gold Options contract and opting to take physical delivery at expiry of that contract?
I wouldn't know. I have very little knowledge of derivatives. I think there are futures contracts and options. I'm not clear on what the difference is. But I thought that traders would usually close out a position by buying or selling an offsetting contract. So no one ever takes delivery of physical commodities. I could be wrong.

That's the joke you always hear about how you could get 40,000 pounds of pork bellies dumped on your front lawn.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by stlutz » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:55 pm

That's the joke you always hear about how you could get 40,000 pounds of pork bellies dumped on your front lawn.
Who pays the shipping for that?

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grayfox
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:58 pm

Another issue with buying PM online: Paper Trail.

Every time you buy from online bullion dealer, that transaction goes in their database. They also send emails with all the details. Who would be interested?

Federal Government: They could get all the records from dealer and find out who owns gold and silver. But they probably won't even have to do this because as we learned from Snowden they intercept all the email. It would make sense for them to be keeping track of who owns gold if they want to confiscate it or tax it.

Plaintiff Lawyers: If you get sued, they would look at your bank account and credit card transactions and see sending money to online bullion dealer. So they can show the judge what you have.

Crooks: I read that at least one online bullion dealer was hacked and got customer records. So the bad guys have your name, address and know that you bought PMs. This may be Fake News. I'm not finding any news stories to support the allegation.

If you pay cash at a LCS, this is not an issue. But if you pay LCS by check, there is paper trail.

:!: Just another thing to think about.
Last edited by grayfox on Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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grayfox
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:10 pm

stlutz wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:55 pm
That's the joke you always hear about how you could get 40,000 pounds of pork bellies dumped on your front lawn.
Who pays the shipping for that?
Nobody. Because I don't think it actually happens. It's just one of those scary stories parents tell their children to keep them from losing money in commodities futures.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:55 pm

grayfox wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:40 pm
Another issue with Physical Metal: Stolen packages.

Now this is probably not that common, but some small percent of silver and gold packages are stolen before its delivered. This one YouTuber had ordered about 100 packages from one of the big online bullion companies with no problem. Then one order for about $1,000 did not arrive, but was shown as delivered and signed for. It turns out that they caught the temporary mail carrier who had forged the signature and stolen the package. The bad mail carrier had been caught stealing about a dozen packages on routes that she filled in for.

But then the guy started getting the run around. The US Post Office would only pay $50. The USPS told the guy to get the $1,000 from the Insurance company that supposedly insured the package. But the online dealer would not submit a claim to their insurance company. They said the USPS was responsible. The poor guy was stuck on the middle of who was responsible and who should pay.

I don't know how it finally turned out, but I don't think he ever got his package or money back because he made numerous videos over several months explaining the story. You could say that he kind of went on the Warpath against the online bullion dealer. In fact, the guy has kind of become obsessed with this like the company and its CEO are now his mortal enemy. But the guy feels like he was cheated by the online dealer because the package was supposedly insured. But when it was time to get paid for the loss, not really.

Probably 99.7% of the packages get delivered without problem. But if you make a big order, and your number comes up, that would be very infuriating if they did not keep the insurance promise.

:arrow: Lesson: Don't place an order more than an amount that you are prepared to lose. A lost $1,000 order would be annoying. $10,000 Monster Box would be bigger problem.
This is easy to avoid.

Don't do business with anyone who uses any method of delivery other than US Postal Service Registered Mail insured for the entire value by the Postal Service's insurance.

I have NEVER heard of a package like that being "lost" without payment from the Postal Service.

My stepfather was a jeweler who sent very valuable packages all over the country via registered insured mail. A couple of packages went missing over a 40 year period, and he was paid on all of them.

The reason for this is that everyone who has custody of the package has to sign for it. Thus, they would know exactly who "lost" (stole) it, which tends to reduce losses. It also means that they are completely liable if it is missing.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:03 pm

grayfox wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:32 pm
1nv35t wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:02 pm
grayfox, do you know of any instances of someone buying a gold Options contract and opting to take physical delivery at expiry of that contract?
I wouldn't know. I have very little knowledge of derivatives. I think there are futures contracts and options. I'm not clear on what the difference is. But I thought that traders would usually close out a position by buying or selling an offsetting contract. So no one ever takes delivery of physical commodities. I could be wrong.
"Taking delivery" of an option means getting a futures position.

You can theoretically take delivery of a futures position, but it isn't done very frequently.

One reason is that the most common gold future has a contract size of 100 ounces, which is pretty big for most clients.

Also you would have to arrange for the physical delivery, probably by armored car.

It's not very practical.
grayfox wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:32 pm
That's the joke you always hear about how you could get 40,000 pounds of pork bellies dumped on your front lawn.
That can never happen because you would have to do the paperwork to accept delivery first. It's just a scary story.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by linenfort » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:05 pm

grayfox wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:58 pm
Crooks: I read that at least one online bullion dealer was hacked and got customer records. So the bad guys have your name, address and know that you bought PMs.
ugh, I think you just gave me some extra gray hairs!
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

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grayfox
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:22 pm

linenfort wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:05 pm
grayfox wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:58 pm
Crooks: I read that at least one online bullion dealer was hacked and got customer records. So the bad guys have your name, address and know that you bought PMs.
ugh, I think you just gave me some extra gray hairs!
I don't know now if that story is true or not. Someone made that claim, but I'm having doubts now. As I look at it more closely, it might just be someone with a beef with one company trying stir up trouble. There's a couple of videos with someone talking about customers' personal info being released, and people are commenting on it like it actually happened. But I'm not finding any news stories or press release from the company to back it up.

So now I will have to say unproven and doubtful that it happened.

Update: After further investigation, I now think this story is a hoax.
Last edited by grayfox on Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

1nv35t
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by 1nv35t » Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:11 am

technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:03 pm
"Taking delivery" of an option means getting a futures position.

You can theoretically take delivery of a futures position, but it isn't done very frequently.

One reason is that the most common gold future has a contract size of 100 ounces, which is pretty big for most clients.

Also you would have to arrange for the physical delivery, probably by armored car.
The contract size of one gold bar (100 ounces) is most likely for convenience (smaller than the 400 troy ounces standard bar that is traded internationally by central banks). The delivery process is specified in the contract. When delivery takes place a warrant or bearer receipt that represents 1 itemised bar in a specific exchange approved storage location changes hands from the seller to the buyer. The buyer has the right to remove the gold or they can leave the gold at the storage location and pay a periodic storage fee. The Exchange also set fees for many aspects of the delivery process. My interest was how that contracts conditions/costs compares to alternatives. If the intent was to longer term buy-n-hold 1 100 ounce bar anyway taking physical delivery now or in x months might be immaterial. If the Futures contract price were at a discount (time value) compared to spot, then that might offset the exchanges processing/delivery costs i.e. having waited for actual physical delivery of the bar for x months could be lower than requiring immediately delivery (via a alternative gold purchase method) and paying x months of storage costs.

Similarly for transport, if say I wanted to transport 1 100 ounce bar from London to Chicago, then selling that bar in London today, to take physical delivery of a bar in Chicago in x months avoids physical transportation risk across borders/distance and potentially has lower costs.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:12 am

1nv35t wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:11 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:03 pm
"Taking delivery" of an option means getting a futures position.

You can theoretically take delivery of a futures position, but it isn't done very frequently.

One reason is that the most common gold future has a contract size of 100 ounces, which is pretty big for most clients.

Also you would have to arrange for the physical delivery, probably by armored car.
The contract size of one gold bar (100 ounces) is most likely for convenience (smaller than the 400 troy ounces standard bar that is traded internationally by central banks). The delivery process is specified in the contract. When delivery takes place a warrant or bearer receipt that represents 1 itemised bar in a specific exchange approved storage location changes hands from the seller to the buyer. The buyer has the right to remove the gold or they can leave the gold at the storage location and pay a periodic storage fee. The Exchange also set fees for many aspects of the delivery process. My interest was how that contracts conditions/costs compares to alternatives. If the intent was to longer term buy-n-hold 1 100 ounce bar anyway taking physical delivery now or in x months might be immaterial. If the Futures contract price were at a discount (time value) compared to spot, then that might offset the exchanges processing/delivery costs i.e. having waited for actual physical delivery of the bar for x months could be lower than requiring immediately delivery (via a alternative gold purchase method) and paying x months of storage costs.

Similarly for transport, if say I wanted to transport 1 100 ounce bar from London to Chicago, then selling that bar in London today, to take physical delivery of a bar in Chicago in x months avoids physical transportation risk across borders/distance and potentially has lower costs.
I think I can say without fear of contradiction that the futures contract price for gold will NEVER be at a discount to the current price.

In fact, the price for future delivery will correspond almost precisely to the following (if I recall correctly and have the signs right):

Current price
Plus interest saved at the T-Bill interest rate by buying later
Plus storage costs saved by buying later, which are minuscule (a small fraction of a %) for gold in the exchange warehouse.

E.g., if gold is at $1000 an ounce and the T-Bill rate is 1% a year with storage costs at 0.1% a year, then a 1-year future should cost
$1000 * 1.01 * 1.001, or $1011.01, for a premium of $11.01 per ounce.

If the price premium for future delivery were significantly higher than this there would be an arbitrage opportunity in which someone would buy physical gold now and sell a future, or vice versa if the premium were significantly lower. This would be feasible because the wholesale spread on a kilo or 100-oz bar is so tiny (a fraction of 1%).
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

1nv35t
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by 1nv35t » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:50 am

technovelist wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:12 am
I think I can say without fear of contradiction that the futures contract price for gold will NEVER be at a discount to the current price.
Gold has at times been in backwardation https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos- ... wardation/ - future prices lower than current spot price, typically due to high current demand/shortages or predominate anticipation that prices will be lower in the future.

Image

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:28 pm

1nv35t wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:50 am
technovelist wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:12 am
I think I can say without fear of contradiction that the futures contract price for gold will NEVER be at a discount to the current price.
Gold has at times been in backwardation https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos- ... wardation/ - future prices lower than current spot price, typically due to high current demand/shortages or predominate anticipation that prices will be lower in the future.

Image
Those curves show a backwardation of at most 20 cents an ounce between current and future prices.

I consider that a rounding error on an $1100/oz. price. It certainly is too small to be worth trying to capitalize on.

So let me make my statement more precise: there will never be a discount for gold futures that can be capitalized on.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:03 pm

I calculated the 2017 return of Precious Metal Bullion and other metals:

XAU Gold Bullion 22.83% $1302.61 way off 13.68%
XAG Silver Bullion 6.53% $16.917 updated 7.25%
XPT Platinum Bullion 4.19% $929.917 updated 2.78%
XPD Palladium Bullion 56.48% $1061.50 updated 56.18%
XCU Copper Bullion 31.09% $3.27156 per pound
Aluminium
Nickel

I couldn't find chats for Nickel and Aluminium a.k.a. Aluminum.
Is cooper priced in standard pounds or troy pounds? A troy pound is 12 troy ounces.


and PM ETFs (Price)

GLD 12.81%
SLV 5.82%
PPLT 2.38%
PALL 55.73%

Palladium was way up. 56.18%

Platinum up only a little. 2.78%. Is now the time to buy Platinum?

My prediction for 2018: It will finish

1 Platinum
2 Silver
3 Gold
4 Palladium
5 Copper
Last edited by grayfox on Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:30 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:25 pm

grayfox wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:03 pm
I calculated the 2017 return of four Precious Metal Bullion:

XAU Gold Bullion 22.83%
XAG Silver Bullion 6.53%
XPT Platinum Bullion 4.19%
XPD Palladium Bullion 56.48%

and on PM ETFs

GLD 12.84%
SLV 5.82%
PPLT 2.56%
PALL 55.87%

Palladium was way up. 56.48%

Platinum up only a little. 4.19%. Is now the time to buy Platinum?
Platinum and palladium are almost entirely industrial metals with a small amount of jewelry use and a tiny amount of monetary use.

Silver is mostly an industrial metal with some monetary characteristics that is also used in jewelry to some extent.

Gold is mostly a monetary metal with some industrial characteristics that is also used in jewelry to a larger extent than silver.

They are not interchangeable and have different investment characteristics.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:04 pm

Did you know that Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are considered currencies by the International Standards Organization? Don't believe me? See ISO 4217
ISO 4217 is a standard first published by International Organization for Standardization in 1978, which delineates currency designators, country codes (alpha and numeric), and references to minor units in three tables:

Table A.1 – Current currency & funds code list[1]
Table A.2 – Current funds codes[2]
Table A.3 – List of codes for historic denominations of currencies & funds[3]
The tables, history and ongoing discussion are maintained by SIX Interbank Clearing on behalf of ISO and the Swiss Association for Standardization.[4]
So U.S. Dollars is USD and Polish Zloty is PLN, etc. One category is X Currencies, "supranational currencies". The code for precious metals is X+chemical symbol

Gold XAU
Silver XAG
Palladium XPD
Platinum XPT

Who knew that?

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:36 pm

grayfox wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:04 pm
Did you know that Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are considered currencies by the International Standards Organization? Don't believe me? See ISO 4217
ISO 4217 is a standard first published by International Organization for Standardization in 1978, which delineates currency designators, country codes (alpha and numeric), and references to minor units in three tables:

Table A.1 – Current currency & funds code list[1]
Table A.2 – Current funds codes[2]
Table A.3 – List of codes for historic denominations of currencies & funds[3]
The tables, history and ongoing discussion are maintained by SIX Interbank Clearing on behalf of ISO and the Swiss Association for Standardization.[4]
So U.S. Dollars is USD and Polish Zloty is PLN, etc. One category is X Currencies, "supranational currencies". The code for precious metals is X+chemical symbol

Gold XAU
Silver XAG
Palladium XPD
Platinum XPT

Who knew that?
I did know that about gold and silver, but not the others.

And "supranational currencies" is a great term for them!
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:12 am

Another issue with Silver: Transporting.

I was watching this one silver stacker's video. He was a young guy, a good head on his shoulders, well educated, seemed to have a good job. For months he was making regular Silver purchases. After a while he had put together a pretty decent-sized stack. I'm guessing 500-1,000 ounces. But he stopped posting for awhile. Then he posts a video saying his sold most of his Silver. Except for a few unique pieces which he kept, he sold everything and bought Gold coins. From the dates, I would guess he sold at a loss.

It turns out he had found a new job and had to move across the country. He would not be driving, but flying. He just had too much weight in Silver to even think of carrying it on an airplane, and I guess he didn't want to risk shipping that much Silver in a Moving Van. So he reduced the space and weight by switching to Gold.

Transport and Storage are both problems due to the weight and amount of space. Gold solves this problem. Platinum and Palladium also work. Copper not so much. It's only $3.26 per pound.

Lesson: If you think you might be moving, don't accumulate too much weight in Silver. Just something to think about.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by Wombatty » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:45 am

grayfox wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:12 am
Another issue with Silver: Transporting.

I was watching this one silver stacker's video. He was a young guy, a good head on his shoulders, well educated, seemed to have a good job. For months he was making regular Silver purchases. After a while he had put together a pretty decent-sized stack. I'm guessing 500-1,000 ounces. But he stopped posting for awhile. Then he posts a video saying his sold most of his Silver. Except for a few unique pieces which he kept, he sold everything and bought Gold coins. From the dates, I would guess he sold at a loss.

It turns out he had found a new job and had to move across the country. He would not be driving, but flying. He just had too much weight in Silver to even think of carrying it on an airplane, and I guess he didn't want to risk shipping that much Silver in a Moving Van. So he reduced the space and weight by switching to Gold.

Transport and Storage are both problems due to the weight and amount of space. Gold solves this problem. Platinum and Palladium also work. Copper not so much. It's only $3.26 per pound.

Lesson: If you think you might be moving, don't accumulate too much weight in Silver. Just something to think about.
Hello Grayfox,

I suppose that there is always the option of storing the Silver in a Depository such as the Perth Mint.
Regardless of which precious metal it was, or even cash, I would be hesitant to store a large amount at home for safety reasons.

A more general question though......
How do you value precious metals? Gold to Silver Ratio, Gold to Oil ratio, Gold to Piano Ratio (have a look in the attached link :D )

http://pricedingold.com/pianos/

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:30 am

Wombatty wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:45 am

Hello Grayfox,

I suppose that there is always the option of storing the Silver in a Depository such as the Perth Mint.
Regardless of which precious metal it was, or even cash, I would be hesitant to store a large amount at home for safety reasons.
I agree. Storing a lot of valuables at home could put you in danger. That's a whole 'nother kind risk: becoming a victim of home invasion. You don't have with stocks and bonds.

Something like the Perth Mint would work in some Silver scenarios. But other scenarios you won't have access to your Silver if stored in a vault in a faraway land.

One idea that's been presented is to split your Precision Metals into three parts and store each in a different place. Maybe 1/3 at the Perth Mint, and the other 2/3 at two other secure locations.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by nick evets » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:41 am

grayfox wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:12 am
A
It turns out he had found a new job and had to move across the country. He would not be driving, but flying. He just had too much weight in Silver to even think of carrying it on an airplane, and I guess he didn't want to risk shipping that much Silver in a Moving Van. So he reduced the space and weight by switching to Gold.

Transport and Storage are both problems due to the weight and amount of space. Gold solves this problem.
I would think entrusting $50k? $100k? More? to the baggage handling systems of an airline carrier and airport(s) would make for a really relaxing flight. Hope he put a gold ribbon around his black Travelpro so no one would grab it mistakenly off the belt.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:57 am

nick evets wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:41 am
grayfox wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:12 am
A
It turns out he had found a new job and had to move across the country. He would not be driving, but flying. He just had too much weight in Silver to even think of carrying it on an airplane, and I guess he didn't want to risk shipping that much Silver in a Moving Van. So he reduced the space and weight by switching to Gold.

Transport and Storage are both problems due to the weight and amount of space. Gold solves this problem.
I would think entrusting $50k? $100k? More? to the baggage handling systems of an airline carrier and airport(s) would make for a really relaxing flight. Hope he put a gold ribbon around his black Travelpro so no one would grab it mistakenly off the belt.
The guy said he was thinking of carrying the gold coins in his underwear. I just wonder what happened at the TSA security checkpoint. :D

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:31 am

Wombatty wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:45 am

A more general question though......
How do you value precious metals? Gold to Silver Ratio, Gold to Oil ratio, Gold to Piano Ratio (have a look in the attached link :D )

http://pricedingold.com/pianos/
As far as how to value precious metals, the simple answer is the current spot price. That's the job of the market, to take into account all the factors of supply and demand, and all the probabilities of what can happen in the future, and come up with a market price. I think the official term for that is "Price Discovery", which is how markets work.
The price discovery process (also called price discovery mechanism) is the process of determining the price of an asset in the marketplace through the interactions of buyers and sellers.
Today with the internet, we can look at a live chart XAG and see that the last trade was 17.130, which changes every second. A few minutes later and now it's 17.17

Now, I think when people talk about valuation, they are really interested in what the market price will be at some time in the future. E.g. If Silver is 17.130, and you know that it will be 14 later this year, you would not buy today. So people are using some valuation metric to say "See, it's undervalued. Its must go up." Pick a ratio of Silver Price to something (Gold, Oil, Pianos) and then the ratio must mean revert to some natural value or the historical average.

My general philosophy is that there is no "undervalued" or "overvalued", there is just the market price. You can't predict all the factors that effect the price, so the future market price is a random variable, i.e. non-deterministic. The price chart looks like a random walk.

But we still want to make some kind of prediction about what the price might be in the future. We try to estimate the probability distribution. Estimate the mean, variance, assume that it's a bell-shaped distribution, etc. Then we can say some things about the future price, but with a lot of uncertainty.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:19 pm

I just checked wholesale prices for kilo bars of gold, and the spread is about 0.6% at the moment.

I should also point out that one bar is about $42,000, which is a significant amount for most people.

Other than on this forum, of course. :moneybag
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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:19 pm

Some more thoughts on Silver valuation. You mention a few ratios:

Silver/Gold - I probably won't be buying Gold with Silver, or Silver with Gold. I'll just use dollars to buy both.
Silver/Oil - Probably won't be buying a barrel of crude oil. However, I will be buying gasoline or petrol.
Silver/Piano - I might by a piano with Silver

So, for example, I might look at how many gallons of gasoline I can buy for 1 ounce of Silver through history. Buy I'm thinking is rather than a ratio to one single commodity or item, how about a whole basket of goods? Things go up and down in price relative to one another all the time. If I look at a whole basket of goods, then it's more of an average.

Well, a basket of good is basically what CPI-U is.

Look at Silver Prices - 100 Year Historical Chart. Turn off Inflation-Adjusted. If you go all the way to the left, you can see that in Jan-1915 1 ounce of Silver was $0.51, in 1915 dollars.

Now go to the CPI Inflation Calculator. Put in $0.51 and January 1915. It calculates:
$ 0.51 in January 1915 has the same buying power as $12.46 in November 2017
In Jan-1915 1 ounce of Silver == 51 cents and bought what $12.46 worth of goods in today's dollars. Maybe today you can get lunch in a diner for about $12.46. So in 1915, 51 cents or an ounce of silver bought lunch. I recall watching silent movies from about 1915 and Charlie Chaplain would pay his bill at a restaurant with one big coin.

Now turn on Inflation-Adjusted in the chart. Hover the mouse in the far left and you will see $12.46, which matches the BLS calculator.

(Note: Use the sliders at the bottom to zoom the time scale.)

So this chart is showing what 1 troy ounce of Silver would have bought you in today's dollars. If you move along slowly, observe that the value of silver rose toward the end of WWI. There was high inflation during and after WWI. This is common with wars.
Jan-1915 12.46
Jan-1916 15.89
Jan-1917 17.71
Jan-1918 17.27

Then after the War, Silver came back down again: March-1921 $8.49
For the rest of the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, the value in today's dollars was between about $5 and $10
All the way to Dec-1966 9.75

High Inflation
Then we got the high Inflation starting in the late 1960s and through the 1970s:
Silver hit 17.77 in Jun-1968. Then came down again to 7.90 in Oct-1971
Silver hit 29.74 in Feb-1974. The fell again to about $20

Then the huge bubble. Silver hit 111.87 in Jan-1980
Paul Voelker to the rescue: Silber crashed to 14.57 in Jun-1982

Once Inflation was defeated, Silver fell through the 1980s and spent most of the 1990s between about $6 and $9.

I'll stop there at year 2000.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:56 pm

Here is what I would have concluded back if I was back in 2000. (NOTE: prices in Nov-2017 dollars)

1. Most of the time, Silver was only worth between about 5 and 10 dollars per troy ounce.
2. When inflation was high, e.g. after WW1 or WW2, Silver was between 10 and 20 dollars.
3. Silber price sometimes fell during recessions. Less industrial demand for Silver.
4. Silver shot up when there were fears of runaway inflation. Then you got Silver above $20.
5. Silver came down again when inflation fears abated.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by Wombatty » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:04 pm

grayfox wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:56 pm
Here is what I would have concluded back if I was back in 2000. (NOTE: prices in Nov-2017 dollars)

1. Most of the time, Silver was only worth between about 5 and 10 dollars per troy ounce.
2. When inflation was high, e.g. after WW1 or WW2, Silver was between 10 and 20 dollars.
3. Silber price sometimes fell during recessions. Less industrial demand for Silver.
4. Silver shot up when there were fears of runaway inflation. Then you got Silver above $20.
5. Silver came down again when inflation fears abated.
Thanks for a concise explanation Grayfox.

After doing some research here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/belangp
and here:
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

I was getting puzzled as to what Silver / Gold is referenced against to determine if it was good/bad value.
The "basket of goods" approach intuitively makes sense.

When I have a free moment, I shall have to go over your previous post and look at the links you suggested

Regards,
Wombatty

ps: Found near where I live

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Finding_ ... ger_nugget

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:07 pm

20th Century Silver Price Paradigm
1. Most of the time, Silver traded between about 5 and 10 dollars per troy ounce, in 2017 dollars.
2. When inflation was high, e.g. after WW1 or WW2, Silver was between 10 and 20 dollars, in 2017 dollars..
3. Silber price sometimes fell during recessions. Less industrial demand for Silver.
4. Silver shot up when there were fears of runaway inflation. Then you got Silver well above $20, in 2017 dollars, and even a bubble.
5. Silver slowly came when inflation fears abated.
I'm going to try and understand what happened to Silver prices in the 21st Century. See Silver Prices - 100 Year Historical Chart (Use sliders to adjust the timescale zoom.)

Note: All prices are in 2017 Dollars.

To recap, during the 1990s Silver traded in its normal range of 5-10 per troy oz. This continued through the early 2000s until Aug-2005 (8.47). During the 2001 recession, Silver did fall slightly to 5.75 in Nov-2001. And Silber spiked up to $10.30 in Mar-2004. What was that all about?

But until about Aug-2005, Silver mostly followed the above Paradigm. But then Silver price started climbing, and by early 2006 had reached the 15 level. Silver traded around 15 from Mar-2006 to Nov-2007 (20 months). This does not fit the Paradigm. The market appears to have established a new higher price level around 15.

At the end of 2007, Silver quickly rose and hit $22.86 by Feb-2008. What was going on that would make this happen? Was there inflation fears? Because that would fit the Paradigm. But I don't recall inflation fears at that time.

Then the recession hit in 2008 and Silver crashed down to $11 by Oct-2008. This DOES fit the Paradigm.

By Jan-2009, Silver had recovered back to 15 Level. But in the second half of 2009, Silver started climbing, eventually reaching $53.42 by Apr-2011. This looked like a replay of the 1980 bubble, which was due to fears of runaway inflation. As I recall, after the economic crisis 2008/2009, with the bailouts, QE, QE2, etc, many pundits and gold/silver bugs (e.g. Peter Schiff) were predicting hyperinflation. So I have a hunch that people bought Gold and Silver in 2009-2011 because of fear of hyperinflation. So the 2011 peak in Silber fits the Paradigm.

Post 2011, Silver gradually came down from $50 to $15. I think this was because everyone started to realize that hyperinflation was not in the cards.

At this time, the Silver Market it seems to have established a new normal trading range of 15-20 per troy ounce. Why not back to the old normal 5-10? I have a theory, but I'll save it for later. Silver has more or less been 15-20 since mid 2014.

That's my analysis of the timeline.
Last edited by grayfox on Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by linenfort » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:23 pm

At the end of 2007, Silver quickly rose and hit $22.86 by Feb-2008. What was going on that would make this happen? Was there inflation fears? Because that would fit the Paradigm. But I don't recall inflation fears at that time.


I’m not saying it’s the cause at all, but wasn’t that shortly after Berkshire Hathaway unloaded its silver and SLV (the etf) was formed?
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:58 pm

linenfort wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:23 pm
At the end of 2007, Silver quickly rose and hit $22.86 by Feb-2008. What was going on that would make this happen? Was there inflation fears? Because that would fit the Paradigm. But I don't recall inflation fears at that time.


I’m not saying it’s the cause at all, but wasn’t that shortly after Berkshire Hathaway unloaded its silver and SLV (the etf) was formed?
I see this news story from May-1998 that Warren Buffett Buys 130 Million Ounces of Silver!. That's a lot of Silver Eagles! The basement at his house in Omaha must have been overflowing with Green Monster Boxes.

PRESS RELEASE

This article Evidence That Warren Buffett Manipulated The Silver Market In Late 1990s says he corned the silver market. The article says he began accumulating in Jul-1997 Looking at the chart there is a blip up from Jul-1997 6.73 to Feb-1998 9.71.

When did he sell? This article from May-2006 Warren Buffett Sells the Family Silver, but not clear when it was sold.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) started Apr 21, 2006.

Certainly there is manipulation in the Silver market, at least in the short term.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by linenfort » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:10 pm

Not bad for a guy who is constantly invoked in gold threads here for the ridiculing metal-fondling quote. :wink:
To his credit, I think he bought at a ten- (or twenty?) year low. Some of it, at least.

Also to his credit, he admits he sold “early.” I wouldn’t be surprised if Berkshire never bought silver again.
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:18 am

grayfox wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:58 pm
linenfort wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:23 pm
At the end of 2007, Silver quickly rose and hit $22.86 by Feb-2008. What was going on that would make this happen? Was there inflation fears? Because that would fit the Paradigm. But I don't recall inflation fears at that time.


I’m not saying it’s the cause at all, but wasn’t that shortly after Berkshire Hathaway unloaded its silver and SLV (the etf) was formed?
I see this news story from May-1998 that Warren Buffett Buys 130 Million Ounces of Silver!. That's a lot of Silver Eagles! The basement at his house in Omaha must have been overflowing with Green Monster Boxes.

PRESS RELEASE

This article Evidence That Warren Buffett Manipulated The Silver Market In Late 1990s says he corned the silver market. The article says he began accumulating in Jul-1997 Looking at the chart there is a blip up from Jul-1997 6.73 to Feb-1998 9.71.

When did he sell? This article from May-2006 Warren Buffett Sells the Family Silver, but not clear when it was sold.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) started Apr 21, 2006.

Certainly there is manipulation in the Silver market, at least in the short term.
I am not sure if it is manipulation if a big buyer or big seller drives the price of a commodity.

That's simply saying it is an illiquid market?

The Hunt brothers actually did corner the market, buying something like 60% of the silver out there. They were prosecuted for it, but I think the main punishment was that the price of silver then plunged.

Silver is not used in photograhy, now, AFAIK (much). So I don't know what the industrial demand is. But there's a lot of silver out there which can be released into the market if the price goes up.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by 1nv35t » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:25 am

grayfox wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:03 pm
I calculated the 2017 return of Precious Metal Bullion and other metals:

XAU Gold Bullion 22.83% $1302.61
...
and PM ETFs
...
GLD 12.84%
I suspect you meant to show XAU being +12.83% ???

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:56 am

1nv35t wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:25 am
grayfox wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:03 pm
I calculated the 2017 return of Precious Metal Bullion and other metals:

XAU Gold Bullion 22.83% $1302.61
...
and PM ETFs
...
GLD 12.84%
I suspect you meant to show XAU being +12.83% ???
Yes, I must have calculated it wrong. If I look here Gold Prices - 100 Year Historical Chart it shows

2017-12-01 1309.3
2016-12-01 1151.7

That would be 13.68% for XAU

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:40 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:18 am

I am not sure if it is manipulation if a big buyer or big seller drives the price of a commodity.

That's simply saying it is an illiquid market?
Right. Manipulation is probably too strong a word. A whale is going to move the market.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:22 pm

OK, so as much as I like Silver, the drawback is the weight and bulk. One mint tube of 20 1oz Silver American Eagles is not that big, 3" tall x 1-3/4" square. About the size of a big salt shaker. And it weighs 20 troy ounces, which is about 22 standard ounces, about 1-1/3 pounds. Costs about $400. (Current spot price is about $17.30 + $3.00 premium)

100 SAE's would be 5 tubes, about 7 pounds. Costs about $2000. It goes up proportionally, so by the time you get to significant investments , its just too big considering that you have to keep it secure. Dozens or hundreds of pounds.

So I'm moving on to gold. Ounces for ounce, gold is about 75x more valuable than silver. Right now, the spot price of Gold is $1,321.70. That reduces the amount of weight and bulk considerably. On the other hand, you can't just spend $20 and get a gold coin. You got to to come up with well over $1300 just for a 1 oz Gold American Eagle. The Local Coin Shop LCS shows

Code: Select all

SPOT    WE BUY   WE SELL
1320.09 1325.09  1370.09
The premium when they sell it to you is $50, which is 3.79% over spot. They will give you $5 over spot when they buy it back. So the spread is $45.

What if you don't want to cough up almost $1400? They make smaller version, what they call Fractional Sizes, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10 oz Gold American Eagles. But you pay a higher premium. How much? Looking at APMEX online I see:

Code: Select all

Spot Price = 1321.70
Weight   Price   Premium  Percent
1 oz     1390.69   68.99   5.22%
1/2 oz    703.81   42.96   6.50%
1/4 oz    361.82   31.40   9.50%
1/10 oz   148.69   16.52  12.50%
Image

The 1 oz premium is a little higher at APMEX than at the LCS. But recall that at LCS you pay sales tax for less than $1000 (NY) or $1500 (CA). It varies by state. Some states collect no sales tax on this.

:arrow: It is interesting that one 1/4 oz Gold Eagle costs about the same as 20 1 oz Silver Eagles. But the silver takes up more than 80x the space. In fact, I would be worried about losing a 1/4 or 1/10 in the sofa.

:idea: I guess if you are investing thousands of dollars at one time, the 1 oz Gold coin is the way to go. Lowest premium. But for ordinary working folks, they are probably looking at the 1/10 oz or 1/4oz.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:58 pm

Here is entry level gold purchase for your average Bogelhead:

2017 1 oz Gold American Eagle (20-Coin MintDirect® Tube).

1-4 $27,741.80 quantities
5+ $27,641.80
(Spot price right now is $1,322.10)

You can pay as low as $59.99 per ounce over spot

Image

Dimensions are Dimensions are 2-3/4" tall x 1-1/2" square.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by technovelist » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:50 am

grayfox wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:22 pm
You got to to come up with well over $1300 just for a 1 oz Gold American Eagle. The Local Coin Shop LCS shows

Code: Select all

SPOT    WE BUY   WE SELL
1320.09 1325.09  1370.09
The premium when they sell it to you is $50, which is 3.79% over spot. They will give you $5 over spot when they buy it back. So the spread is $45.

What if you don't want to cough up almost $1400? They make smaller version, what they call Fractional Sizes, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10 oz Gold American Eagles. But you pay a higher premium. How much? Looking at APMEX online I see:

Code: Select all

Spot Price = 1321.70
Weight   Price   Premium  Percent
1 oz     1390.69   68.99   5.22%
1/2 oz    703.81   42.96   6.50%
1/4 oz    361.82   31.40   9.50%
1/10 oz   148.69   16.52  12.50%
Image

The 1 oz premium is a little higher at APMEX than at the LCS. But recall that at LCS you pay sales tax for less than $1000 (NY) or $1500 (CA). It varies by state. Some states collect no sales tax on this.

:idea: I guess if you are investing thousands of dollars at one time, the 1 oz Gold coin is the way to go. Lowest premium. But for ordinary working folks, they are probably looking at the 1/10 oz or 1/4oz.
The spread is also a lot bigger on the small coins. That is, if they sell the 1/10th at 12.5% over, they may pay only 2% or so over spot when buying, so it's a lot more expensive to trade the smaller ones.

However, the 1/2 ounce isn't too much more expensive in premium than the 1 oz. (and the spread might not be too much more either), so that may be a reasonable size to buy.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by Ice-9 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:29 am

grayfox wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:07 pm
At the end of 2007, Silver quickly rose and hit $22.86 by Feb-2008. What was going on that would make this happen? Was there inflation fears? Because that would fit the Paradigm. But I don't recall inflation fears at that time.
I do. Gasoline prices had been going up considerably and a lot of people were worried about inflation: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... US_DPG&f=A

In late 2008, I also remember threads in this forum and elsewhere in which people started expressing confusion whether to be worried about inflation or deflation. Eventually, it seemed most people stopped worrying about inflation, but at the end of 2007 and early 2008, this was not yet the case.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:25 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:50 am

The spread is also a lot bigger on the small coins. That is, if they sell the 1/10th at 12.5% over, they may pay only 2% or so over spot when buying, so it's a lot more expensive to trade the smaller ones.

However, the 1/2 ounce isn't too much more expensive in premium than the 1 oz. (and the spread might not be too much more either), so that may be a reasonable size to buy.
Another online bullion dealer, Provident Metals, lists their buyback price on the same page as the prices. APMEX you have to call. Here is what they have: (It was difficult to type all the prices at the same time. The price changes every few seconds.)

Code: Select all

1/8/2018 11:55AM EST 
Spot Price = 1318.45
Weight   1-4   Premium  Percent      Buyback     ASK-BID     P/L
1 oz     1384.40   65.95    5.00%     1315.95     68.45     -4.94%
1/2 oz    711.96   52.74    8.00%      657.98     53.98     -7.58
1/4 oz    365.93   36.32   11.02%      329.04     36.89    -10.08
1/10 oz   150.33   18.49   14.02%      131.62     18.71    -12.45
You definitely have bigger BID-ASK spread more for the smaller. And of course there are discounts for larger amounts. For the 1 oz the price breaks are at 1-4, 5-19, 20+

Buy a tube of 20 1-oz gold eagles at one time if you can afford $27,817.80.

There is a tradeoff for the fractional coins: smaller divisibility but greater cost. Someone might buy a tube of 50 1/10-oz Gold Eagles if they thought they would sell them only a tiny bit at a time. Right now $7,454.05 for a mint tube of 50 1/10-oz Gold eagles at APMEX.

Image

:idea: This looks to be about the size of a roll of pennies, but its worth about $7,000.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:28 am

Because a small amount of gold is worth a lot, gold mostly solves the problem of storage and transport that we had with Silver. But it still has to be stored somewhere. And because of its great value there is risk of theft.

You could store it at home, either in a secure safe or hidden place. But I would not recommend keeping valuables at home for reasons mentioned previously. A bank vault sounds like a better idea.

I went to my bank and inquired about a Safe Deposit Box. They offered various sizes, but the only size available at this time was the extra small size. The cost is $50 per year. That's about $4.17 per month. Not expensive for such secure storage.

The bank officer went and made sure that a box was available and brought one of the boxes out. It is a removable box about 1/2 inch tall x 5 inches wide x about 2 feet long. It's not huge, but it looks big enough to store tubes of Gold or Silver coins. I'll have to figure out exactly how many tubes can fit in a box.

We filled out the paperwork, and that was it. You get a $5 discount for automatic payment, so its only $45 per year, $3.75 per month. Cheap! There was also a $20 deposit for two keys. So the first year you pay $65 dollars, and $45 per year after that. If you don't lose the keys, you get back your $20 if you give up the box.

To access your box, you get on the teller line and ask. The teller tells you to wait at the entrance to the vault. You will have to show a government picture ID. Then they take you inside the huge bank vault. It's very exciting to go inside the huge bank vault with giant metal door. I've only seen this in movies.

The walls of the vault are lined with what looks like post office boxes.

Image

My box was way up high, so the teller had to use a ladder to reach it. It requires two keys to open: your key and one the teller has. Like nuclear launch keys. The teller takes out your box. You go into a private room with your box. It's all secret.

I felt like Jason Bourne, stashing secret agent stuff in a safe deposit box--passports with different identities, stacks of dollars and Euros, a 9mm, thumb drive with secret codes, etc.

Image

Then the teller returns the box to its place in the vault.

:idea: Forget about a home safe, burying it in the back yard or hiding it somewhere. A safe deposit box is the best place to store mint tubes of gold coins.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by prudent » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:10 am

Just to add a little info re:SDBs, the bank has no liability for the contents. People need to carry their own insurance.

In addition, many states are aggressive in deciding when a box is "abandoned". In many cases it's only 3 years of no activity. A couple people in California had their allegedly "abandoned" box contents turned over to the state in the late 1990s for auction even while they still had active accounts at the same bank - because the box had not been accessed in 3 years. The bank claimed they were unable to contact box owners prior to declaring the boxes abandoned but one wonders how hard they tried.

Visit your SDB every so often.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:16 am

prudent wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:10 am
Just to add a little info re:SDBs, the bank has no liability for the contents. People need to carry their own insurance.
Where do you get insurance for a Safe Deposit Box? Would that be something that you add onto homeowner's insurance or renters insurance?

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by david1082b » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:33 am

Some people find that safe desposit boxes are not quite so safe:
Bank junks deposit boxes in renovation blunder http://www.scmp.com/article/473132/bank ... on-blunder
During a routine remodeling at a SunTrust bank in Haile Plantation, workers hauled old equipment to be recycled and destroyed. Three bays of safe deposit boxes were supposed to be empty — one of them was not.
In a mistake they blame on human error, the bank says 28 safe deposit boxes were accidentally destroyed in December, with some of the bank’s customers’ most prized and important possessions inside. http://www.gainesville.com/news/2013020 ... n-mix-up/1
Hong Kong bank accidentally throws away deposit box contents

Customers at a Hong Kong bank had their checks cleared — literally — last week when a box containing the slips was “accidentally” thrown away during renovations.

A similar incident in 2004 saw some 83 safety deposit boxes from DBS Bank’s Mei Foo branch mistakenly sent to the scrap yard.

In a story at the time, the Associated Press reported that the boxes were crushed and their contents, including valuable jewelry, strewn amongst the junk.

Human error was blamed. https://coconuts.co/hongkong/news/shoul ... -contents/

Gillian Robinson, from Dorset, lost an estimated £10,000 of family heirlooms in 2013 when Lloyds Bank failed to locate them. She has since been reimbursed.

Mrs Robinson said: "I got a call from the bank, saying they were transporting everything from their vaults up north to a safety deposit area, and then they discovered they couldn't find mine.

"The bank asked whether my jewellery was insured and I said 'No, that's why it was in the bank - I am paying for it to be safe'." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40612250

I remember reading another story once about how one man found that his deposit box was opened up and given to a new person, with the original contents disappearing somehow.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:49 am

david1082b wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:33 am
Some people find that safe desposit boxes are not quite so safe:
Anything can happen. There can be fires, floods, bank heists, clerical errors, insider theft, etc.

Some people recommend dividing your golden hoard (horde?) into three parts and storing each in a different place. Maybe have one box in Manhattan, one in London, one in Zurich, etc.

Does anyone here know a good bank in New Zealand, in case North America and Europe get nuked?

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by Wombatty » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:51 pm

Not New Zealand, but in Australia, you have this Vaulting Service

https://www.guardianvaults.com.au/

All very James Bondish with finger print scanners etc.
Personally I would not use a Bank safety deposit box in case the Government calls a "Bank Holiday"

Just the thing for the end of the world as they filmed "On the Beach" in Melbourne

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(1959_film)

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by nick evets » Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:17 pm

Anyone remember the book, Papillon? (Subsequently a movie with Steve McQueen).

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by Wombatty » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:22 am

[/quote
Does anyone here know a good bank in New Zealand, in case North America and Europe get nuked?
[/quote]

How about this ?

https://www.nzmint.com/bullion/products/storage.htm

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by halfnine » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:56 pm

grayfox wrote: Does anyone here know a good bank in New Zealand, in case North America and Europe get nuked?
It's increasingly more difficult for an American to open a foreign account remotely although 6 figures or residency can help. There are still some opportunities, though, it probably will require a trip abroad. For New Zealand or Australia you'd probably be looking at ANZ. I have relatives who have accounts there as they winter there.

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Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Post by grayfox » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:01 pm

There are dozens, if not hundreds, of Precious Metal products for sale at the bullion dealers. Which ones would you buy?

Here's one list of silver and gold products you can use for investing in Precisious Metals. They go from lowest to highest priced. I got the prices from APMEX. The prices were current for Jan 10, 2017 12:45 EST. Prices change continuously.

Code: Select all

1-oz SAE                           $20.67
1/2 gram Gold bar                  $31.12
1 gram Gold bar                    $51.41
1/10 oz GAE                       $148.42
1/4 oz GAE                        $361.27
Mint Tube of 20 1-oz SAE          $433.60
1/2 oz GAE                        $702.74
1 oz GAE                        $1,388.69
Mint Tube of 50 1/10 GAE        $7,454.05
Monster Box of 500 1-oz SAE     $9,940.00
Mint Tube of 40 1/4 oz GAE     $14,648.67
Mint Tube of 20 1-oz GAE       $27,693.80
Mint Tube of 40 1/2 oz GAE     $28,505.52
Monster Box of 500 1-oz GAE   $686,845.00
SAE = Silver American Eagle, GAE = Gold American Eagle

There are price points for anyone's budget. You get lower premiums for larger sizes of bullion, and there are price breaks for larger quantities. For other amounts to invest, you can buy multiple quantities.

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