Call the top! - Bitcoin

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LadyGeek
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:38 am

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:59 am
I'd appreciate it if someone learned in the lore of Bitcoin would bring me up to date on whether it is properly spelled with a capital letter or not (bitcoin or Bitcoin and whether it is an uncountable or mass noun ($1,000,000 in bitcoin) or a countable noun with a regular plural ($1,000,000 in Bitcoins).

Also, are the rules for the spelling, capitalization, and usage of derivatives, forks, imitations like "Bitcoin Cash" the same as those for Bitcoin.
It's bitcoin. From two credible sources:

- Investor Alert: Bitcoin and Other Virtual Currency-Related Investments, from the SEC.
- XBT-Cboe Bitcoin Futures, from Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe)

Don't look in a section title or the first word of a sentence (where the first letter is always capitalized).

To me, it's a unit of exchange and should be handled like other units, e.g. dollar and euro.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by steve r » Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:13 pm

OkieIndexer wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:52 pm
... previous bubbles:

December 1999: "What is a nuzduck, or nazdick, or whatever it's called (Nasdaq)?"
January 2006: "What is house flipping?"
Now: "What is a bitcoin?"
+1
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by wish » Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:57 pm

37377

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by nisiprius » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:11 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:38 am
...It's bitcoin. From two credible sources:

- Investor Alert: Bitcoin and Other Virtual Currency-Related Investments, from the SEC.
- XBT-Cboe Bitcoin Futures, from Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe)...
...Uh... LadyGeek... as of 00:07:34 UTC, Sunday, December 24, 2017, that SEC article showing the word "Bitcoin" as capitalized throughout, except for one or two places where it uses "bitcoins," pluralized, lower case: "The exchange rate of U.S. dollars to bitcoins has fluctuated dramatically since the first bitcoins were created." Note the first few paragraphs: (I underlined instances that are not the first word of a sentence:
The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy is issuing this Investor Alert to make investors aware about the potential risks of investments involving Bitcoin and other forms of virtual currency.

The rise of Bitcoin and other virtual and digital currencies creates new concerns for investors. A new product, technology, or innovation – such as Bitcoin – has the potential to give rise both to frauds and high-risk investment opportunities. Potential investors can be easily enticed with the promise of high returns in a new investment space and also may be less skeptical when assessing something novel, new and cutting-edge.

We previously issued an Investor Alert about the use of Bitcoin in the context of a Ponzi scheme. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) also recently issued an Investor Alert cautioning investors about the risks of buying and using digital currency such as Bitcoin.
Were you consulting an archived copy of an older version of this web page?
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:27 pm

Thanks, I rechecked. It depends where you look. The SEC investor bulletin has 11 occurrences of bitcoin (lower half of the page) and 58 occurrences of Bitcoin.

If you want to discuss further, PM me. Let's keep this discussion focused on the contest.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by OkieIndexer » Mon Dec 25, 2017 3:28 am

OkieIndexer wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:46 pm
My 66 year old retired mother who knows almost nothing about investing just asked me "What is a bitcoin?" :shock: I don't think that's quite enough for a top call, but we're definitely getting there. :mrgreen:
Wow, my mom ended up calling almost the exact top of Bitcoin when she asked me "what is a bitcoin?" on the afternoon of Dec. 18 when Bitcoin closed at ~$18,700, LOL :mrgreen: .

Well...so far that's the top.

I'll have to let you guys know when she asks me about another investment :mrgreen: .

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by OkieIndexer » Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:49 am

Here's a Bitcoin parody from Dec. 22 Late Night with Seth Meyers you guys might enjoy :mrgreen: :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:59 am

OkieIndexer wrote:
Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:49 am
Here's a Bitcoin parody from Dec. 22 Late Night with Seth Meyers you guys might enjoy :mrgreen: :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg
How is that a parody exactly? It is almost a literal transcription of what some people are saying on a Facebook group I belong to. :confused
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by birdog » Mon Dec 25, 2017 6:29 am

OkieIndexer wrote:
Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:49 am
Here's a Bitcoin parody from Dec. 22 Late Night with Seth Meyers you guys might enjoy :mrgreen: :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg
And I thank you for that, sir!

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by likegarden » Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:58 am

I am not participating, am simply laughing.

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by nisiprius » Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:12 am

Bitcoin is so volatile that when I called up Google News half an hour ago, both of these stories were showing at the same time.

Image
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:20 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:46 am
TravelforFun wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:43 pm
Bill Miller's hedge fund now has half its money in bitcoin. I believe Bitcoin still has legs. $50,000.

TravelforFun
For a guy who built his career on value investing, that is just incredible.

This is Gambler's Remorse-- double or quits. He must basically be telling his investors "you will make the kind of money with me I should have made in the Great Financial Crisis or you will lose it".

There's no tractable way to do the analysis on Bitcoin as you might do for a normal value investment.

FWIW long-only managers like Miller often struggle in a hedge fund environment. Shorting is a very different game. Another poster noted he has only 1% of his net worth in this fund (that's very low for a HF, normally investors would want a much bigger commitment of personal wealth).
To be fair, Bill Miller did not invest at these prices. He bought bitcoin awhile ago with a very small percentage of his portfolio and now it has grown so much that is takes up a huge chunk of his portfolio.

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:23 am

I believe the price action of bitcoin is purely based on technology adoption. As more people adopt, the price goes up. As more people leave, the price goes down. The question is whether or not bitcoin adoption will continue to increase in the future and at what rate that adoption is. The recent price boom has been sensationalized by media coverage and social media. Bitcoin has never received this much attention before. For every 100 people that hear about at, maybe 1-5 will actually buy some.

Along the way there will be bear and bull markets as market mania/fear will steer bitcoin price away from adoption. This will lead price to not correlate linearly along with adoption..but in general the price trend will follow number of users on the network and how much money is being transacted on the network.

Note - I cannot claim this theory as my own, I got it from of Tom Lee, of Fundstrat.

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by watchnerd » Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:10 pm

$48612, following by a >60% crash.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by LarryAllen » Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:20 pm

$227k

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by watchnerd » Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:24 pm

supaflix wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 am
long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes
Given the large portion of BTC holders that are in Asia, not sure this logic applies.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:11 pm

Let's keep the discussion focused on the contest.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:33 am

ccieemeritus wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:16 pm
Using winkdex.com price, guess the peak bitcoin price between now and Dec 31 2018. Guesses have to be in by Dec 31 2017 or 1 day “before the peak/crash”, whichever is earlier.
ccieemeritus wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:55 am
We are calling the top bitcoin price and date by Dec 31 2018. We won’t know for sure what that will be until Dec 31 2018. Some of you bet that the peak was already reached. Some of you bet big numbers expecting long term growth. You’ll both have your chance to win honor and glory.
Historical data is available at WinkDex, which is the OP's baseline. Is the following correct?

-The price is the "Final" price of the day.

- Anyone guessing after 12/17/2017 a peak of: $18,675.83 (price on 12/18/2017) would be applied to the next time this occurs (2nd peak). If it occurs again (3rd peak), the winner would be the earlier occurrence (2nd peak).

- Assuming bitcoin does not go above $18,675.83 or crash this week, guesses should be in by Dec 31, 2017.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by UpsetRaptor » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:29 am

I call we've seen it: $18675.83, 12/18/17.

Not willing to bet a dime on that though. :happy

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:44 am

^^^ I would agree, you're on record for the guess. I didn't claim that in my post, as it was made after the peak occurred (disqualified by the "1 day before" rule).

I've recalculated a new peak.

$19,876.54 on 02/02/2018.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Atilla » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:20 pm

Found out over dinner last night my best friend's son quit his director of marketing job to trade bitcoin full time. So whatever the highest price was/is as of today - that's the top.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by HomerJ » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:40 pm

Atilla wrote:
Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:20 pm
Found out over dinner last night my best friend's son quit his director of marketing job to trade bitcoin full time. So whatever the highest price was/is as of today - that's the top.
What does your best friend think about that?

Why, exactly, would one need to quit their job to "trade" bitcoin?

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Water » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:53 pm

65739.48
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by ccieemeritus » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm

Entries are now closed. Here's the list of all valid entries:

14999 Top99%
16934.26 jadd806
17171 ensign_lee
17500 whiteprius
18675.83 johne417 12/18/17 (but bet invalid, made after that peak)
19500 Texas Radio
19876.54 LadyGeek 2/2/18
20001 siamond
20345 JonnyDVM
20432 ccieemeritus 12/14/2017
21312 Call_Me_Op
21329 randomizer
22000 1/15/2018
22500 B. Wellington
25000 White Coat Investor
27001 buccimane
28236 Better2bWise
29430 azanon
29500 WanderingDoc 10/8/2018
31337 Ragnoth 4/1/2018 (I like the choice of April Fools Day!)
31415.92 Crisum (what? no fractional penny!)
37377 wish
36000 k66
37053 QuietProsperity
40000 casun
41000 Veiled
44000 Talisker
48612 watchnerd
48680 LasixDrip 11/9/2018
50000 bgf
50200 Lobster
54200 GoldenFinch
54460 gogleheads.orb
55000 onthecusp
60000 NoRegret 1/11/2018
62317 Angelus359
65535 Angelus359 (invalid 2nd {but more interesting} entry from same individual, thanks for making it close enough to the 1st that I noticed :-)
65739.48 Water
66776 diy60 10/14/2018
74953 scottinmet (although his original suggestion of the complex number 53000 + i*53000 was entertaining)
75000 Theoretical
75000 supaflix (invalid entry, Theoretical already claimed that number)
85000 Cycle
88850 talltodd
98643 alfaspider
100000 Swelfie
102000 Tanelorn
117400 bridge 12/20/2018
120000 Smorgasbord
192600 TheTimeLord
195000 SimpleGift
200000 mrtiger (date entry for "December 2018 was invalid)
227000 LarryAllen
265700 sperry8 (date entry for "August 2018" was invalid)
655350 alpine_boglehead 6/17/2018
750000 AllenSmith
1000000 grayfox
8675309 FlyOverState

If I missed a valid entry please feel free to PM me. I might have missed one buried in paragraphs of commentary (I can see why the normal annual contest went to a web form).

I'll have to mark my calendar to post a winner around 1/1/19. But if people say "bitcoin was a bubble" past tense I might post a "preliminary winner".

Thank you all for an entertaining thread (so far).

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by ny_rn » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:15 am

I wonder how many people who "called the top" actually have money in bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Caduceus » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:04 am

If I had to guess, I'd say we are near the top, because it is amazing how many of my friends who have never wanted to talk about finance are all thinking about buying Bitcoin. I'm talking about people whose eyes glaze over at the mere mention of the word "investing".

I think there are some pretty smart people who bought into Bitcoin not because they thought it was fundamentally a good investment, but they appreciated the nature of the story and how it would build and become a bubble of its own making. When these people exit their investments, the bubble will end.

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:47 am

ccieemeritus wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm
Entries are now closed. Here's the list of all valid entries:

14999 Top99%
16934.26 jadd806
17171 ensign_lee
17500 whiteprius
18675.83 johne417 12/18/17 (but bet invalid, made after that peak)
19500 Texas Radio
19876.54 LadyGeek 2/2/18
20001 siamond
20345 JonnyDVM
20432 ccieemeritus 12/14/2017
21312 Call_Me_Op
21329 randomizer
22000 1/15/2018
22500 B. Wellington
25000 White Coat Investor
27001 buccimane
28236 Better2bWise
29430 azanon
29500 WanderingDoc 10/8/2018
31337 Ragnoth 4/1/2018 (I like the choice of April Fools Day!)
31415.92 Crisum (what? no fractional penny!)
37377 wish
36000 k66
37053 QuietProsperity
40000 casun
41000 Veiled
44000 Talisker
48612 watchnerd
48680 LasixDrip 11/9/2018
50000 bgf
50200 Lobster
54200 GoldenFinch
54460 gogleheads.orb
55000 onthecusp
60000 NoRegret 1/11/2018
62317 Angelus359
65535 Angelus359 (invalid 2nd {but more interesting} entry from same individual, thanks for making it close enough to the 1st that I noticed :-)
65739.48 Water
66776 diy60 10/14/2018
74953 scottinmet (although his original suggestion of the complex number 53000 + i*53000 was entertaining)
75000 Theoretical
75000 supaflix (invalid entry, Theoretical already claimed that number)
85000 Cycle
88850 talltodd
98643 alfaspider
100000 Swelfie
102000 Tanelorn
117400 bridge 12/20/2018
120000 Smorgasbord
192600 TheTimeLord
195000 SimpleGift
200000 mrtiger (date entry for "December 2018 was invalid)
227000 LarryAllen
265700 sperry8 (date entry for "August 2018" was invalid)
655350 alpine_boglehead 6/17/2018
750000 AllenSmith
1000000 grayfox
8675309 FlyOverState

If I missed a valid entry please feel free to PM me. I might have missed one buried in paragraphs of commentary (I can see why the normal annual contest went to a web form).

I'll have to mark my calendar to post a winner around 1/1/19. But if people say "bitcoin was a bubble" past tense I might post a "preliminary winner".

Thank you all for an entertaining thread (so far).
You have my entry down (22000 on 1/15) but without my id. :(
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by bgf » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:58 am

came across this 2014 paper about the 2013 bitcoin bubble and crash.

https://economics.nd.edu/assets/134206/ ... rrency.pdf

this is an interesting part in the conclusion -

"Regarding the effects of investor behavior, the model suggests that as the VIX rises, Bitcoin values fall. While this contradicts the original hypothesis that fear and uncertainty would drive investors to shelter their money in Bitcoin, it can still be explained in a manner consistent with investor behavior. The inverse relationship between Bitcoin and VIX values suggests that when the VIX is low, that is, when there is relatively little volatility in the S&P 500, investors push money towards Bitcoins. As noted earlier, Bitcoins have a great deal of volatility, which potentially allows for greater return on investment. Investors might therefore choose to speculate on Bitcoins not because they seek to shelter money, but rather because they wish to gamble in the hopes that Bitcoins will offer a higher return than the market."

note that the Vix has been at historical lows through 2017... as bitcoin surged higher and higher. everyone has been making money. global markets have consistently risen with low volatility and bitcoin has absolutely skyrocketed. it is not difficult to conceptualize how a low volatility, rising equity market was a perfect breeding ground for bubble-like increases in bitcoin. basically, a perfect storm for it.

markets won't always be that perfect breeding ground, and we will see when the Vix shoots up that bitcoin is not a gold or cash proxy. it will crash too.
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:30 am

Maybe the top was 19,343 and Bogleheads are just optimists. :happy

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Watty » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:19 am

I have not really been following Bitcoin but this caught my eye when it was in the news a few days ago,
A bitcoin conference has stopped taking bitcoin payments because they don't work well enough
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/bitcoin ... ments.html

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Angelus359 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:05 am

Bitcoin is a terrible currency due to transactions fees and transaction speed

This has been solved with other cryptocurrencies but Bitcoin hasn't adopted the changes to do so yet
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by amitb00 » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:46 pm

Bitcoin is sub 9000 today. Hope folks on this board are not caught on wrong side of Bitcoin.

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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:34 pm

ccieemeritus wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm
19876.54 LadyGeek 2/2/18
I guess I'm a bit off.

From the start of the contest until now:

Peak: 2017-12-18 18675.83
Min: 2018-02-01 9049.18

%change = -51.55 % = (9049.18 - 18675.83) / 18675.83 * 100%

From: Winkdex, historical data, final daily price.
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