Call the top! - Bitcoin

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Veiled
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Veiled » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:48 am

grayfox wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:22 pm
I was at a restaurant this morning eating breakfast. At one of the tables, four blue-collar-type men were discussing guess what: Bitcoin! From their conversation, they were obvious newbies to crypto, repeating all the misconceptions that most people have about it. Hilarious!
I have had lots of these experiences and keep thinking of Joe Kennedy...hilarious, scary, and honestly sad.

41,000.
Pardon me as I read these one hundred and fifty-seven SP vs LLC vs Scorp threads...

ccieemeritus
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by ccieemeritus » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:19 pm

A couple of you were asking "which bitcoin price". My OP listed the aggregate price listed on http://winkdex.com as our single source of truth.

Ironically, after over a year of providing an aggregate price, they took that down and says their XBT "Bitcoin Futures Contracts" is "coming soon". So I can't even follow my own instructions at this time. I'll check again tomorrow.

In any event, here are the bets (so far) for peak price and peak date before the crash. Honor and glory await!

14999 Top99%
16934.26 jadd806
17171 ensign_lee
20001 siamond
20345 JonnyDVM
20432 ccieemeritus 12/14/2017
21312 Call_Me_Op
21329 randomizer
22500 B. Wellington
25000 White Coat Investor
27001 buccimane
29430 azanon
36000 k66
37053 QuietProsperity
41000 Veiled
48680 LasixDrip 11/9/2018
54200 GoldenFinch
54460 gogleheads.orb
55000 onthecusp
62317 Angelus359
75000 Theoretical
100000 Swelfie
655350 alpine_boglehead 6/17/2018
1000000 grayfox

And a couple invalid responses:

1 Tesla an_asker (please specify model or, for my convenience, list price of that model...thank you)
< 1,000,000,000,000 TheTimeLord

WanderingDoc
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:08 am

Peak: 29,500

Date: Harder to guess, best guess 10/8/2018.
Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate, and wait. | Rent where you live, buy where others pay your mortgage for you.

Ragnoth
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Ragnoth » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:17 am

Guess #1) $31337 = 1 BTC
Guess #2) April 1th 2018

Thinking run-up after the holidays, and smart money starts to get out before the retail investors try to "sell in May."

Malinois000
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Malinois000 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:27 am

Much higher than it is today!

supaflix
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 am

75,000 sometime in 2018.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.

GoldenFinch
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:13 pm

^^^A brave new economic world.

MotoTrojan
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:27 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:08 am
Peak: 29,500

Date: Harder to guess, best guess 10/8/2018.
My birthday! I’ll have to sell the $100 worth of coin I got at $0.008/ea on my big day.

AllenSmith
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by AllenSmith » Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:46 pm

$750k/BTC

whiteprius
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by whiteprius » Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:58 pm

It's up to 17,500 today. I think the top will be $17,500. The only rational conclusion is that the top is where it's currently at.

Because there is no logical reason for this increase.

1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

2. It has absolutely no inherent value. At least you could hold a tulip and use it to decorate. BTC is literally nothing.

3. It was originally supposed to be a currency that hedges against inflation, because unlike the dollar governments can't just print bitcoins. BUT its price is so erratic that no one would seriously use it as a currency. Do the few stores that take it sell their BTC for dollars immediately after accepting the BTC? That seems to be the only rational thing to do.

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

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sperry8
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by sperry8 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:18 pm

$265,700
Aug 2019
Humbling BH contest results: 2017: #516 of 647 | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

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SimpleGift
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by SimpleGift » Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:56 pm

A November 2017 survey of 564 bitcoin owners in the U.S. included this question:
At what price per Bitcoin would you be willing to sell all of your Bitcoin investment?
On average, respondents reported that they would be willing to sell all of their Bitcoin investment at $196,165.79 per Bitcoin. At the time of the survey completion, the price per Bitcoin was $6,490.
So, since this is a completely speculative asset, my completely speculative guess at a top price is $195,000. Also:
  • Image
Over half of the survey respondents (56%) could be considered short-term investors (< 3 year holding period).
Cordially, Todd

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Smorgasbord
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Smorgasbord » Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:20 pm

My guess is a top of $120,000, and $50,000 by the end January 2018. I expect a bunch of people with paper profits will talk up bitcoin during the holidays leading more people to jump on the roller coaster.

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Texas Radio
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Texas Radio » Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:21 pm

19,500
A portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it the smaller it gets.

mws13
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by mws13 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:23 pm

Just trying to educate, don't take it personally. See my responses below.



1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

HERE IS A GOOD ARTICLE ON WHAT IS ADDED TO BANKING AND HOW IT CAN COMPETE WITH TRADITIONAL BANKS - https://fee.org/articles/how-will-banki ... y-economy/

2. It has absolutely no inherent value. At least you could hold a tulip and use it to decorate. BTC is literally nothing.

WE ARE SHARING INFORMATION ABOUT INVESTMENTS IN THIS FORUM. THIS COULD NOT BE DONE YEARS AGO. PEOPLE CHARGED HUGE FEES AND THEN JACK BOGEL CAME ALONG WITH VANGUARD.

SO THE NEXT QUESTION IS, DO WE NEED VANGUARD? WHAT HAPPENS IF THIS FORUM COULD CREATE OUR OWN INDEX FUNDS AND HAVE PERFECT TRUST? THAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BLOCKCHAIN.

3. It was originally supposed to be a currency that hedges against inflation, because unlike the dollar governments can't just print bitcoins. BUT its price is so erratic that no one would seriously use it as a currency. Do the few stores that take it sell their BTC for dollars immediately after accepting the BTC? That seems to be the only rational thing to do.

THIS WAS NOT THE ORIGINAL CONCEPT. THE KEY PROBLEM IS/HAS BEEN - 1) THERE IS BITCOIN THE CURRENCY 2) THERE IS THE TECHNOLOGY WHICH IS THE "BLOCKCHAIN" BUT WAS ORIGINALLY ALSO CALLED bitcoin. I WILL NOT DISAGREE THAT THE CURRENCY IS PROBABLY OVERVALUED AS THE ORIGINAL BITCOIN TECHNOLOGY HAS ISSUES.

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

MY ORIGINAL COST PER BTC WAS $331 AND I COVERED LONG AGO. I AM NOW DIVERSIFYING INTO OTHER CRYPTO ASSETS. THE SECOND MOST CONSERVATIVE PERSON IN THE WORLD AFTER JACK BOGEL IS MY WIFE, AND SHE AGREES WITH THIS STRATEGY, BUT THAT TOOK TIME. I DONT CARE IF BTC GOES DOWN TO WHATEVER PRICE AS I TOOK A RISK 4 YEARS AGO, GOT A LITTLE LUCKY, AND I AM NOW DIVERSIFYING PROFITS INTO A BLENDED PORTFOLIO OF USD ASSETS 75% AND CRYPTO ASSETS 25%. THE MORE I LEARN, THAT PERCENTAGE COULD SHIFT TO 33% IN 2018.

PLAYERS IN THE MARKET NOW:

IBM - https://www.ibm.com/blockchain/

UBS - https://www.coindesk.com/ubs-launch-liv ... it-suisse/

Microsoft - https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/solutions/blockchain/

I am not an either/or guy. This stuff takes a long time, but there is absolutely no way that I need to do a RE Title Search every time I sell, finance, or buy a REAL ESTATE property. Put it on the "blockchain" once with a clear title, and then pay a transfer/administrative fee to your state government. Sorry to the lawyers and title agents, but your days are numbered (some, not all).

whiteprius
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by whiteprius » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:38 pm

The value of blockchain technology will not boost BTC's value. You can have blockchain without BTC. Also, of course Deutche Bank and others are making crypto exchanges. They want a fee on whatever's moving in the economy. Now show me a serious corporation that has invested a lot in crypto.

mws13
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by mws13 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:19 pm

whiteprius wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:38 pm
The value of blockchain technology will not boost BTC's value. You can have blockchain without BTC. Also, of course Deutche Bank and others are making crypto exchanges. They want a fee on whatever's moving in the economy. Now show me a serious corporation that has invested a lot in crypto.
I now see BTC as a possible "base crypto asset", and I agree with you about the fact the BTC is not needed for the technology which is why I am shifting to other Cryptos. However, Coinbase and others have now created networks of people and this has value.

The head of Facebook's Messenger platform just went on the Board of Coinbase. Before Facebook, he was the President of Paypal:

https://blog.coinbase.com/david-marcus- ... 75d5c9c967

When you have 2 billion people on the FB platform, most can't send/use USD, and they will eventually find a solution. I have personally never used FB's money payment system. A solution is a Crypto Asset that would then tie into your local Fiat currency. I was skeptical of Facebook when it went public as I thought it was too diverse for my taste. I was right at the beginning after their IPO, but wow was I wrong in the long run.

We'll see!!

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grayfox
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by grayfox » Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:49 pm

Well I think Bitcoin is going to a Million. 8-) That's the good news.

The bad news is that when it hits 1,000,000 and you try to cash in, you won't be able to sell. The Mempool will be so overloaded, but the time your transaction confirms BTC will have fallen 90%. :oops:

Wakefield1
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Wakefield1 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:10 pm

grayfox wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:49 pm
Well I think Bitcoin is going to a Million. 8-) That's the good news.

The bad news is that when it hits 1,000,000 and you try to cash in, you won't be able to sell. The Mempool will be so overloaded, but the time your transaction confirms BTC will have fallen 90%. :oops:
Or maybe 99.999% ?

WanderingDoc
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by WanderingDoc » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:22 pm

supaflix wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 am
75,000 sometime in 2018.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.
How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.
Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate, and wait. | Rent where you live, buy where others pay your mortgage for you.

talltodd
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by talltodd » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:40 pm

$88,850

hilink73
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by hilink73 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:49 am

mws13 wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:23 pm
Just trying to educate, don't take it personally. See my responses below.



1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

Please.
This is getting old.

NoRegret
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by NoRegret » Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:25 am

Long time reader, first time poster. In fact, I registered in order to post an entry in this poll.

$60K on Jan 11, 2018

The range is $40-100K, +/- 8 days. I consider the 2nd half of the range more likely. My price target is not that outlandish compared with others but the timing probably is. I consider timing much more relevant for trade execution in the bubble blow-off phase.

For the price to rise that fast it will have to make a definitive new high very soon and enter an exponential regime, Sunday Dec 17 in my model or early next week at the latest.

Best,
NR
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade

supaflix
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:26 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:22 pm
supaflix wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 am
75,000 sometime in 2018.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.
How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.
I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.

supaflix
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:37 am

supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:26 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:22 pm
supaflix wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 am
75,000 sometime in 2018.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.
How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.
I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.
The counter argument to my hypothesis is that the current BTC market is tiny compared to other asset classes. CME/CBOE/ledgerX offering BTC futures legitimizes BTC in the eyes of institutional money. It is becoming more regulated, more acceptable to invest in BTC. New asset classes are few and far between, especially ones with ZERO correlation with other asset classes. To Wall street, this is the perfect portfolio diversifier a a time when alpha is hard to find. 100s of crypto hedge funds being started. I believe 20 applications for BTC ETF have been submitted now that futures approved. Institutional money buying the dip could outpace the upcoming retail investor panic. If so, BTC well over 100K in 2018.

supaflix
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cell+ph ... ucfVfkvUkM:

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.

technovelist
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:24 am

supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am
One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cell+ph ... ucfVfkvUkM:

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.
Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions! :oops:
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

technovelist
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:25 am

supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:37 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:26 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:22 pm
supaflix wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 am
75,000 sometime in 2018.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.
How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.
I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.
The counter argument to my hypothesis is that the current BTC market is tiny compared to other asset classes. CME/CBOE/ledgerX offering BTC futures legitimizes BTC in the eyes of institutional money. It is becoming more regulated, more acceptable to invest in BTC. New asset classes are few and far between, especially ones with ZERO correlation with other asset classes. To Wall street, this is the perfect portfolio diversifier a a time when alpha is hard to find. 100s of crypto hedge funds being started. I believe 20 applications for BTC ETF have been submitted now that futures approved. Institutional money buying the dip could outpace the upcoming retail investor panic. If so, BTC well over 100K in 2018.
The current Beanie Baby market is tiny compared to other asset classes. Thus, Beanie Babies should go to $50,000 each!
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

technovelist
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:27 am

whiteprius wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:58 pm
It's up to 17,500 today. I think the top will be $17,500. The only rational conclusion is that the top is where it's currently at.

Because there is no logical reason for this increase.

1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except be used for crime, to evade sanctions, terrorism, drug dealing, hiring people to kill someone . . . darkweb stuff. This should make it a prime target for governments. That is huuuuge risk.

2. It has absolutely no inherent value. At least you could hold a tulip and use it to decorate. BTC is literally nothing.

3. It was originally supposed to be a currency that hedges against inflation, because unlike the dollar governments can't just print bitcoins. BUT its price is so erratic that no one would seriously use it as a currency. Do the few stores that take it sell their BTC for dollars immediately after accepting the BTC? That seems to be the only rational thing to do.

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
Here you go:

"Bitcoin, PayPal Used to Finance Terrorism, Indonesian Agency Says"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-pa ... 1483964198
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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Tycoon
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Tycoon » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:46 am

I find this thread fascinating. It's sort of like watching a foreign language soap opera.
Appeal to Pity:When pity is envoked to support a statement | Appeal to Popular Sentiment:Appealing to unrelated prejudices and attitudes | Hasty Generalization:Too little evidence to support the conclusion

Johm221122
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Johm221122 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:53 am

Today's Wall Street journal(Saturday)has article,doesn't show up on Google search(read paper)

Interesting that 40% of Bitcoin is bought in Japan

Article
"You Can Thank Mr. Watanabe for Bitcoin’s Explosive Rally"

whiteprius
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by whiteprius » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:01 am

technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:27 am

Here you go:

"Bitcoin, PayPal Used to Finance Terrorism, Indonesian Agency Says"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-pa ... 1483964198
It has to be something bigger, like a big attack that's tied to crypto currency financing. In other news, the UK financial regulator told BTC investors that they're on their own if the investment fails. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 12396.html

scottinmet
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by scottinmet » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:07 am

53000 + i*53000

Where i = sqrt(-1)

Ah heck, I'll say 74953, only because the hype is really rolling now. I see Marketwatch has added a bitcoin window in it's market tabs where you can track the instantaneous bitcoin value in a number of different currencies. That seems a bit redundant to me.

technovelist
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:11 am

scottinmet wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:07 am
53000 + i*53000

Where i = sqrt(-1)
You are making this too complex! :D
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

supaflix
Posts: 51
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 am

technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:24 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am
One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cell+ph ... ucfVfkvUkM:

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.
Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions! :oops:
Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.

technovelist
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:20 am

supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:24 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am
One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cell+ph ... ucfVfkvUkM:

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.
Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions! :oops:
Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.
Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

scottinmet
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by scottinmet » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:25 am

technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:11 am
scottinmet wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:07 am
53000 + i*53000

Where i = sqrt(-1)
You are making this too complex! :D
Crypto currencies have seemed to move off the real axis into the complex plane of valuation! :happy

supaflix
Posts: 51
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:44 am

technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:20 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:24 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am
One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cell+ph ... ucfVfkvUkM:

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.
Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions! :oops:
Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.
Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".
In your mind, is there even a 0.01% chance that the bitcoin network becomes adopted as a worldwide currency? Surely you think there is that much of a possibility. Or is it zero?

supaflix
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2013 10:53 pm

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:44 am

supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:44 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:20 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:24 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am
One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cell+ph ... ucfVfkvUkM:

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.
Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions! :oops:
Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.
Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".
duplicate

technovelist
Posts: 2917
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:23 am

supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:44 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:20 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:24 am
supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am
One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bubble? The BTC price chart is essentially a mirror image of a chart of bitcoin/blockchain adoption. Look at past tech adoption curves - cell phones, televisions, microwaves etc. Bitcoin adoption is increasing at exponential rate. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is the square of its users.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cell+ph ... ucfVfkvUkM:

Why does the coin need value? The coin is needed to make the public blockchain/network safe, secure, and function. Without the coin, there is no network.
Yes, just think of all the people who became millionaires by buying cell phones and televisions! :oops:
Think if you could have monetized the cell phone adoption rate. That is what you are seeing with bitcoin. The difference between me and you is I think bitcoin can goto zero and I also think it can goto a million and disrupt the financial industry depending on how things play out. You think it can only goto zero. Open your mind to the upside risk.

Also, the CME/CBOE don't trade futures in beanie babies.
Any bubble can go to any level before it collapses. That's why I'm also not interested in shorting Bitcoin.

And I'm not saying that blockchain technology won't be important; it may very well be. But Bitcoin owners aren't monetizing anything other than the "greater fool theory".
In your mind, is there even a 0.01% chance that the bitcoin network becomes adopted as a worldwide currency? Surely you think there is that much of a possibility. Or is it zero?
I think that is a 0% probability.

But even if it is 0.01%, that doesn't mean that the current price of bitcoin isn't a bubble.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

technovelist
Posts: 2917
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:24 am

scottinmet wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:25 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:11 am
scottinmet wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:07 am
53000 + i*53000

Where i = sqrt(-1)
You are making this too complex! :D
Crypto currencies have seemed to move off the real axis into the complex plane of valuation! :happy
Don't give them any ideas! :D
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

bridge
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by bridge » Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:05 pm

$117,400
December 20, 2018

NoRegret
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by NoRegret » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:06 pm

supaflix wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:26 am
[quote=WanderingDoc post_id=3666564 time=<a href="tel:1513390969">1513390969</a> user_id=123788]
[quote=supaflix post_id=3665748 time=<a href="tel:1513356519">1513356519</a> user_id=49820]
75,000 sometime in 2018.

I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before January 1 2018 and we will also have a 50-90% correction lasting into at least February 2018. Price drop will gain momentum as speculators panic and long time holders sell in Jan for tax purposes and also to rebalance their portfolio by taking BTC gains off the table. If you have been waiting for your time to get in late Jan / Feb 2018 will be your best opportunity.

Good news for long term holders is that this bubble will be small compared to the next bitcoin bubble as institutional money is just starting to take their position.
How sure of you of a correction in January? This would be a dream for me. I bought at $9500 and cashed out around $15,000 even though I didn't need the money (dumb). I am looking to invest 1% of my NW into Bitcoin (low five figures) but so far its just been going up up up.
[/quote]

I cannot be sure but there are clues. I have watched the bitcoin markets hours per day since May when I got in. Bitcoin price movement is based on momentum and herd mentality. There is also strong fractal correlation to prior price action.

We recently broke out upwards of a year long logarithmic price channel on Nov 23rd. Think about that..a logarithmic channel!! I believe that logarithmic channel represent true bitcoin adoption. What has taken us above the channel is media/speculation frenzy. The current upwards slope of price appreciation has just gone from steep to steeper. It is forming a parabola which cannot be sustained unfortunately. So when has this happened in bitcoin history? Oct - Dec 2013 when price went up 10x in a couple months before a 90% correction. Given the momentum/herd mentality nature of bitcoin, some event will occur in next couple months that will spook the speculators that the price is going to zero. Now that the ratio of speculation:adoption is greater than normal, weak hands will sell and the buy the dip people will be overwhelmed.
[/quote]

Not sure if we were looking at the same chart. The one I saw has y (price) axis in base 10, so a Log-Ln relationship. In other words Price has almost a cubic relation to time. This is not sustainable. It’s misleading to call that a logarithmic trendline.

The chart I saw originated from the speculation subforum on of a major bitcoin forum.

NR
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade

supaflix
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by supaflix » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:22 am

Here is Peter Brandt showing it in a chart.

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status ... 8639328256

Maybe I didn't use correct terminology if so I apologize. What I was trying to convey is there was an upwards logarithmic channel BTC was trading in for majority of 2017. It had obeyed the support and resistance trendlines multiple times and many traders used it as buying/selling opportunities. In late Nov it broke through the logarithmic resistance trendline. This increased the slope of its price appreciation and is beginning to create a unsustainable parabola of price growth. I think we'll reach the top of this parabola within a few weeks, crash, and test the bottom support of the logarithmic trendline during the crash.

Valuethinker
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:19 am

supaflix wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:22 am
Here is Peter Brandt showing it in a chart.

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status ... 8639328256

Maybe I didn't use correct terminology if so I apologize. What I was trying to convey is there was an upwards logarithmic channel BTC was trading in for majority of 2017. It had obeyed the support and resistance trendlines multiple times and many traders used it as buying/selling opportunities. In late Nov it broke through the logarithmic resistance trendline. This increased the slope of its price appreciation and is beginning to create a unsustainable parabola of price growth. I think we'll reach the top of this parabola within a few weeks, crash, and test the bottom support of the logarithmic trendline during the crash.
This is not how people in this Forum are encouraged to think about investments - technical charting.

I have a little more sympathy (although I am not a Technical Analyst) BUT I think the underlying mathematics has to be far far more sophisticated.

Financial assets tend to have fractal return patterns. For example this is true of Dutch housing prices since 1630, the longest period housing price dataset that we have-- there is no systematic underlying trend, merely periods when housing prices were very high, and very low. For any given period of price data, it is time scale invariant-- you can't tell whether you are looking at monthly, annual, decadal, century or 4 century data*. Mandelbrot found something similar for daily prices of Egyptian cotton-- again we have continuous daily pricing data since the 1530s.

I agree the price rises are probably unsustainable, but I don't know whether they become unsustainable at $2,000 ; $20,000 or $100,000.


* this is my hand-wavy, non technical understanding of fractals. Apologies to those with more sophisticated mathematical knowledge.

technovelist
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:30 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:19 am
supaflix wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:22 am
Here is Peter Brandt showing it in a chart.

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status ... 8639328256

Maybe I didn't use correct terminology if so I apologize. What I was trying to convey is there was an upwards logarithmic channel BTC was trading in for majority of 2017. It had obeyed the support and resistance trendlines multiple times and many traders used it as buying/selling opportunities. In late Nov it broke through the logarithmic resistance trendline. This increased the slope of its price appreciation and is beginning to create a unsustainable parabola of price growth. I think we'll reach the top of this parabola within a few weeks, crash, and test the bottom support of the logarithmic trendline during the crash.
This is not how people in this Forum are encouraged to think about investments - technical charting.

I have a little more sympathy (although I am not a Technical Analyst) BUT I think the underlying mathematics has to be far far more sophisticated.

Financial assets tend to have fractal return patterns. For example this is true of Dutch housing prices since 1630, the longest period housing price dataset that we have-- there is no systematic underlying trend, merely periods when housing prices were very high, and very low. For any given period of price data, it is time scale invariant-- you can't tell whether you are looking at monthly, annual, decadal, century or 4 century data*. Mandelbrot found something similar for daily prices of Egyptian cotton-- again we have continuous daily pricing data since the 1530s.

I agree the price rises are probably unsustainable, but I don't know whether they become unsustainable at $2,000 ; $20,000 or $100,000.


* this is my hand-wavy, non technical understanding of fractals. Apologies to those with more sophisticated mathematical knowledge.
That is my understanding of fractals as well.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

casun
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by casun » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:25 pm

$40,000

mrtiger
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by mrtiger » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:00 pm

I call it 200k Dec 2018. Now this technology is only in its own infancy and will be changing dramatically. I don't believe that crypto will replace cash or cards, however banking system will change dramatically within next decade.

p.s. just few minutes ago word largest futures exchange launched bitcoin futures. (CME bitcoin)

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BuyAndHoldOn
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by BuyAndHoldOn » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:45 pm

pokebowl wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:08 am
Similar to Tesla, bitcoins are backed by the full faith and credit of investor hype, thus its impossible to call a top. /heavy sarcasm

Surely you agree Tesla has more value than Bitcoin? :happy If Tesla traded at a reasonable (Whatever that means) valuation, people would talk about how undervalued it is, given the innovation.


But yes, there is no stopping the hype cycle investor and thus a top is impossible to call. Recall, if you will, this thing called the Dot Com bubble and how long that lasted. Even the housing bubble got ridiculous before it caved in. (Full apologies to all those negatively impacted by these bubbled).

Crisium
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Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Post by Crisium » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:32 am

$31,415.92

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