Call the Top!

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celia
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by celia » Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:56 am

2874.69

I say we're standing on the apex right now.

... I gotta go sit down now.

balbrec2
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by balbrec2 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:09 am

Exercise in futility. Anyone can get lucky!

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Stinky
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Stinky » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:53 am

3500? 4000? Who knows?

All I know is that there are miles to go before I sleep.
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drg02b
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by drg02b » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:11 am

$5,904 sometime in late 2019 early 2020.

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LadyGeek
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:14 am

Mursili wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:43 am
k66 wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Edit to add: Current Leader is gogleheads.orb with 2718.28 (...a natural choice I assume)
Very well done there.

If no one has taken 3141.59, I will try that.
Those choices are somewhat irrational. Let's go with a more reasonable 3041.59.
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Therapist Investor
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Therapist Investor » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:32 am

Exercise in futility, but why not give it a go? 4921
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k66
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:45 am

Mursili wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:43 am
k66 wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Edit to add: Current Leader is gogleheads.orb with 2718.28 (...a natural choice I assume)
Very well done there.

If no one has taken 3141.59, I will try that.
That little slice of pi was previously taken by rkhusky. Do you have another choice?
celia wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:56 am
2874.69

I say we're standing on the apex right now.

... I gotta go sit down now.
I nudged your entry to 2874.70 in order to be higher than the current index value at the time of your guess.
balbrec2 wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:09 am
Exercise in futility. Anyone can get lucky!
Yes, it is exceptional futile, but just think, if you do win, you could have a Talking Head gig for ages to come!
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

Turbo29
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Turbo29 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:49 am

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau,"

--Economist Irving Fisher, 1929

KyleAAA
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by KyleAAA » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:55 am

According to Morningstar the market is almost exactly fairly valued, so my vote is that the market will march on more or less as it always has with a long-term return expectation of about 9-10%. For the purposes of this thread, I think the market will close to double from here before the next bear market. Valuations are reasonable and the underlying economy is fairly strong, although rising income inequality could derail things.

https://www.morningstar.com/tools/marke ... graph.html

heyyou
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by heyyou » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:21 pm

I agree with Jason Zweig, "Don't know and don't care."

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Mursili
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Mursili » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:45 pm

k66 wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:45 am
Mursili wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:43 am
k66 wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Edit to add: Current Leader is gogleheads.orb with 2718.28 (...a natural choice I assume)
Very well done there.

If no one has taken 3141.59, I will try that.
That little slice of pi was previously taken by rkhusky. Do you have another choice?
You are making it hard here. Sure there are plenty of irrationals lying around, but few of note in this range. I will go with twice the golden ratio times one thousand.

The top will be 3236.06.
When it comes to havoc, no one wreaks like me! - Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz

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LadyGeek
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:21 pm

Nice. That is indeed an irrational number, see: is (golden ratio*2*1000) an irrational number - Wolfram|Alpha

FYI - The Wolfram|Alpha: Computational Intelligence tool is a knowledge-based math engine. Check their Money & Finance examples.
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:28 pm

k66 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest.

Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.

I would also suggest that this topic is indeed an actionable for those of us who are (closeted or open) market timers, technologists, chartists, or astrologers.
Wow, the timing of this OP is pretty, shall we say, legendary.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

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Mursili
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Mursili » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:01 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:21 pm
Nice. That is indeed an irrational number, see: is (golden ratio*2*1000) an irrational number - Wolfram|Alpha

FYI - The Wolfram|Alpha: Computational Intelligence tool is a knowledge-based math engine. Check their Money & Finance examples.
Thanks for the link, LadyGeek. I see from the wolfram alpha computation of my "call" that I should have said that the top will be 3236.07 (not 3236.06). Apparently I did not round correctly.
When it comes to havoc, no one wreaks like me! - Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz

drg02b
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by drg02b » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:38 am

KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:55 am
According to Morningstar the market is almost exactly fairly valued, so my vote is that the market will march on more or less as it always has with a long-term return expectation of about 9-10%. For the purposes of this thread, I think the market will close to double from here before the next bear market. Valuations are reasonable and the underlying economy is fairly strong, although rising income inequality could derail things.

https://www.morningstar.com/tools/marke ... graph.html

Except that Morningstar provides no explanation as to how it calculates a stock's fair value...

minesweep
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by minesweep » Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:20 pm

I haven't heard any irrational exuberance speech yet so it's probably a long ways off. It's hard enough trying to predict the 2018 S&P 500 closing price for the Boglehead Contest (although I did come in 2nd back in 2009). So I'll pass on this one.

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by KyleAAA » Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:00 pm

drg02b wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:38 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:55 am
According to Morningstar the market is almost exactly fairly valued, so my vote is that the market will march on more or less as it always has with a long-term return expectation of about 9-10%. For the purposes of this thread, I think the market will close to double from here before the next bear market. Valuations are reasonable and the underlying economy is fairly strong, although rising income inequality could derail things.

https://www.morningstar.com/tools/marke ... graph.html

Except that Morningstar provides no explanation as to how it calculates a stock's fair value...
They do:
https://corporate.morningstar.com/US/do ... dology.pdf

You have to be a premium member to see the in-depth analysis, of course.

Crisium
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Crisium » Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm

My analysis indicates 3333.33

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k66
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:42 pm

Crisium wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
My analysis indicates 3333.33
It seems that in this case, the 3's have come in pairs; USGrant previously called 3333.33 last year.

Did you have another pick?
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

Crisium
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Crisium » Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:37 pm

k66 wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:42 pm
Crisium wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
My analysis indicates 3333.33
It seems that in this case, the 3's have come in pairs; USGrant previously called 3333.33 last year.

Did you have another pick?
If I've learned anything from The Price is Right I'll go with 3333.34

JonFromDimensionC137
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by JonFromDimensionC137 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:11 am

3052.2
Hope I'm wrong!
--This message sent from an NSA monitored device.

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:28 am

The top is near, had a co-worker tell me that he is going to go “all cash” in his 401k. Thinks the market can’t go much higher.

Cue in the hedge funds: “Let’s make some easy money. Go long but hedge it by selling some puts.”
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by marcopolo » Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:33 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:28 am
The top is near, had a co-worker tell me that he is going to go “all cash” in his 401k. Thinks the market can’t go much higher.

Cue in the hedge funds: “Let’s make some easy money. Go long but hedge it by selling some puts.”
I think that bodes well for the market, I would start to worry when he/she tells you they went "100% stock" because they think it can only go up.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by CyclingDuo » Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:00 am

We must all be far too bearish if you listen to Jeff Saut from Raymond James, as he thinks this secular bull market (which he is counting as beginning in 2013 and not off the lows of 2009 - watch video for that explanation) has at least another six or seven years to go. :mrgreen:

https://cnb.cx/2Pd2Gsa
Market has legs for at least another six or seven years, says strategist Jeff Saut, Raymond James chief investment strategist, and Michael Tyler, Eastern Bank Wealth Management chief investment officer, discuss their market outlooks and where the bull market goes from here.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/28/jeff-sa ... yptr=yahoo
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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k66
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:55 am

LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

goblue100
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by goblue100 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:01 am

You gotta love the guy calling for 50% unemployment and 100% inflation. Go big or go home, I always say!
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

Pudu
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Pudu » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:38 am

Crisium wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
My analysis indicates 3333.33
I'd go with 3222.22

columbia
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by columbia » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:06 pm

k66 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:55 am
The Chart of Shame!

Image
Funny

Was surprised to not see Rob Arnott in the mix.

2015
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by 2015 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:41 pm

k66 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:55 am
The Chart of Shame!

Image
Excellent. My favorite paragraph:
Boorman, in the “chart of the day” highlighted in our daily “Need to Know” column, calls out the likes of former congressman Ron Paul, who last year forecast a 50% correction, and MarketWatch’s own Paul Farrell, who predicted a “100% risk of a 50% crash if Trump wins the nomination.”
Predictions are impossible in complex systems such as the stock market, and are one of the best ways to make a fool of oneself.

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Carlos Danger
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Carlos Danger » Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:33 pm

Image


Image

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fortyofforty
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by fortyofforty » Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:39 pm

Nobody knows nothin'. I'll just keep dollar-cost-averaging and maintain my asset allocations. It's hard to predict anything, especially about the future.
Indexing works, not because of magic, but because of math. | Diligentia. Vis. Celeritas. - Jeff Cooper | Original Vanguard Diehard

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by ReformedSpender » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:24 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:14 am

Those choices are somewhat irrational. Let's go with a more reasonable 3041.59.
With today's price action, 3041.59 is just a sneeze (~4%) away!

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:45 pm

Not yet!
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k66
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:34 pm

The train keeps on rolling... a new closing high today for the S&P 500 @ 2933.68 (besting the previous closing high on Sept 20, 2018 @ 2930.75).

The recent closing low of 2351.10 set on Dec. 24, 2018 was "only" 19.8% below the then-current high; narrowly adverting the Bear and this contest's end.

The contest remains open to new entries.

Rules revisited:
Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.
The (first) person with a guess closest to the previous high would have the winning guess. So, this contest would be somewhat open-ended.

Notes:
1. the S&P reference value is at the close of day (i.e. excluding any potential intra-day high).
2. Dividends are not counted, this is the index value only.
3. the winning guess has to have preceded the actual occurrence of that value (that is to say, your guess needs to be a value higher than it is at the time you place the guess).
4. the guess numerically closest to the actual forthcoming peak, without going over, is the winner.
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

KyleAAA
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by KyleAAA » Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:17 pm

It's over 5000!!!

DonIce
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by DonIce » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:40 pm

k66 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:34 pm
The train keeps on rolling... a new closing high today for the S&P 500 @ 2933.68 (besting the previous closing high on Sept 20, 2018 @ 2930.75).

The recent closing low of 2351.10 set on Dec. 24, 2018 was "only" 19.8% below the then-current high; narrowly adverting the Bear and this contest's end.

The contest remains open to new entries.

Rules revisited:
Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.
The (first) person with a guess closest to the previous high would have the winning guess. So, this contest would be somewhat open-ended.
Hmm, your original contest didn't specify closing high. It did drop by 20.2% from the intraday high of 2940.91 on Sept 21 to the intraday low of 2346.58 on Dec 26. Personally I'd give the win to celia and start a new call the top :) That said, your thread your rules!

I'm gonna go with 3003.14!

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:46 pm

2964.1

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Stinky
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Stinky » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:57 pm

3523.23
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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ram
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by ram » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:59 pm

3200.00
Ram

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willthrill81
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:11 pm

DonIce wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:40 pm
k66 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:34 pm
The train keeps on rolling... a new closing high today for the S&P 500 @ 2933.68 (besting the previous closing high on Sept 20, 2018 @ 2930.75).

The recent closing low of 2351.10 set on Dec. 24, 2018 was "only" 19.8% below the then-current high; narrowly adverting the Bear and this contest's end.

The contest remains open to new entries.

Rules revisited:
Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.
The (first) person with a guess closest to the previous high would have the winning guess. So, this contest would be somewhat open-ended.
Hmm, your original contest didn't specify closing high. It did drop by 20.2% from the intraday high of 2940.91 on Sept 21 to the intraday low of 2346.58 on Dec 26. Personally I'd give the win to celia and start a new call the top :)
I agree.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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LadyGeek
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:16 pm

I'm not running the contest, but would agree that you shouldn't ask for new entries once the contest has started.

I agree with the earlier posts to call a winner and start again.

We can keep going as many times as the market peaks, then dips 20%. So, a leading indicator.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Thesaints » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:18 pm

k66 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.
That's an odd definition of a "top". Why do we have to wait for the index to regain that value again ?

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Taj_Mahalo » Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:12 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:17 pm
It's over 5000!!!
Lol! Not sure many Bogleheads will get that reference.
Income is not wealth. Wealth is not income. Both are equally as important and either is capable of producing the other.

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:34 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:18 pm
k66 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.
That's an odd definition of a "top". Why do we have to wait for the index to regain that value again ?
Good point, I agree.

:!: There's a basic concept here that all investors should understand. A loss of 20% means that you need to gain 25% to get back to the same starting value. Why?

See the wiki: Percentage gain and loss

Let the market rise and drop as much as it wants. When the drop hits 20%, contest over.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

MJS
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by MJS » Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:42 pm

3151.01

Carol88888
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Carol88888 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:03 pm

3040. Then a 15%-20% drop in July when Fed does another about face and hints it might have to raise rates after all..

(this prediction can't be worse than than my S&P prediction in the Boglehead contest: 2288)

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by NeoNeo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:47 pm

3079.69

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Re: Call the Top!

Post by pward » Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:21 pm

3321.79

Thesaints
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by Thesaints » Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:45 pm

Interesting. There were a bunch of estimates that have already been exceeded. Now, before the really high estimates (5000 and over), there is a bunch of them around 3300. That means just 10% above current level and since a 20% drop has to come after that, probably it would make sense for their authors to sell (or hedge) already now.

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corn18
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Re: Call the Top!

Post by corn18 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:36 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:17 pm
It's over 5000!!!
Its over 9,000!!!!!

DBZ
Don't do something, just stand there!

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