Call the Top!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm

Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest.

Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.

I would also suggest that this topic is indeed an actionable for those of us who are (closeted or open) market timers, technologists, chartists, or astrologers.
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

John Laurens
Posts: 384
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:31 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by John Laurens » Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:26 pm

Infinity

Regards,
John

runner3081
Posts: 1726
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by runner3081 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:03 pm

There is no top. It will go up, it will go down, it will go up and then down again.

900ss
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:59 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by 900ss » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:04 pm

Think of it like our cloud cover.....

User avatar
badbreath
Posts: 919
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:50 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by badbreath » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:07 pm

It may go sideways for a while.
“While money can’t buy happiness, it certainly lets you choose your own form of misery.” Groucho Marx

User avatar
Kalo
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 1:01 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Kalo » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:10 pm

Is it closest without going over? Or is it ok to go over if you are still closest?

Kalo
"When people say they have a high risk tolerance, what they really mean is that they are willing to make a lot of money." -- Ben Stein/Phil DeMuth - The Little Book of Bullet Proof Investing.

anoop
Posts: 712
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by anoop » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:13 pm

9849.63

User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 1850
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:22 pm

k66 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest.

Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.

I would also suggest that this topic is indeed an actionable for those of us who are (closeted or open) market timers, technologists, chartists, or astrologers.
When the number of posts per day at BH regarding Bitcoin reaches 25% of all post volume activity, that will be the top. 8-)
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 49327
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Call the Top!

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:24 pm

What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner?

The Bogleheads S&P 500 index contest status can be found in the left-side menu of every wiki page: Bogleheads® contest

900ss, Welcome!
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

TropikThunder
Posts: 1092
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by TropikThunder » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:28 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:24 pm
What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner?

The Bogleheads S&P 500 index contest status can be found in the left-side menu of every wiki page: Bogleheads® contest

900ss, Welcome!
Not yet!! I'm still contributing!! :P

User avatar
unclescrooge
Posts: 2698
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 7:00 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by unclescrooge » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:44 pm

3434.34

User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 5500
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii😀 Northern AZ.😳 Retired.

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:00 pm

It will go up until mid term elections. It may pause before that but will not drop. Thereafter, a 20% drop or more is possible.
j :D

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 13018
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: Call the Top!

Post by abuss368 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:06 pm

Short everything. In fact, buy SDS which is a leverage bet on the market declining!
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

User avatar
k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:24 pm
What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner?
...
There is no preset closing date except by arriving at a 20% or greater downturn. Upon arriving at that point, the person with a guess closest to the previous high would have the winning guess. So, this contest would be somewhat open-ended.

For clarification, I suppose we should have some Addenda:
1. the S&P reference value is at the close of day (i.e. excluding any potential intra-day high).
2. Dividends are not counted, this is the index value only.
3. the winning guess has to have preceded the actual occurrence of that value (that is to say, your guess needs to be a value higher than it is at the time you place the guess).
4. the guess numerically closest to the actual forthcoming peak, without going over, is the winner.

Here's an example, the 2008/2009 crash actually had the last peak in 2007. It was 1565.15 on Oct. 09, 2007. A 20% decline was not achieved until July 09, 2008 when the value dipped to 1244.68 (a drop of 20.5% from the previous peak). Full recovery didn't occur until March 28, 2013 (closed at 1569.19).

edit to add addendum #3 and addendum #4
Last edited by k66 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

User avatar
k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:03 am

Kalo wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:10 pm
Is it closest without going over? Or is it ok to go over if you are still closest?

Kalo
Yes, the winning guess would be the "closest without going over". A guess that is higher than what turns out to be the next peak would otherwise be eligible for the next iteration of the contest (should you still want it).
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

rkhusky
Posts: 5935
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by rkhusky » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:51 am

3141.59

User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 6324
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by JoMoney » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:03 am

S&P 500 @ $7,000
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

User avatar
just frank
Posts: 1455
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2014 4:13 pm
Location: Philly Metro

Re: Call the Top!

Post by just frank » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:59 am

I think we might get a run up past 4000, but not 5000, in the next few years.

I won't worry (and will try to stay 100% equities) until most of the Millenials I know are giving me stock tips.

gogleheads.orb
Posts: 95
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:34 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by gogleheads.orb » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:02 am

2718.28

User avatar
Ethelred
Posts: 338
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2016 9:38 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Ethelred » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:24 am

2665.19 (the current maximum)

Note: I don't actually believe that, but I think it's the most interesting answer.

Crushtheturtle
Posts: 130
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:29 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Crushtheturtle » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:43 am

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:03 am
S&P 500 @ $7,000
Whelp... I guess I'll stop thinking about bonds.

:mrgreen:

USGrant
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:58 pm
Location: New Hampshire

Re: Call the Top!

Post by USGrant » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:10 am

3,333.33

User avatar
oldcomputerguy
Posts: 3564
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:50 am
Location: In the middle of five acres of woods

Re: Call the Top!

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:39 am

runner3081 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:03 pm
There is no top. It will go up, it will go down, it will go up and then down again.
How about a contest to call the top for 2017? Sort of like the Bogleheads S&P500 contest? Make your prediction of the top. If the market exceeds your call point, you lose. If it doesn’t by the end of the year, you win.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

runner3081
Posts: 1726
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by runner3081 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:43 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:39 am
runner3081 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:03 pm
There is no top. It will go up, it will go down, it will go up and then down again.
How about a contest to call the top for 2017? Sort of like the Bogleheads S&P500 contest? Make your prediction of the top. If the market exceeds your call point, you lose. If it doesn’t by the end of the year, you win.
I guess I don't care enough about a top or bottom :)

marcopolo
Posts: 1296
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by marcopolo » Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:21 pm

We might be getting close:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=234042
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

Moritat
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:14 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Moritat » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:51 pm

January 16th, 17th or 18th (2018) will be the top.

davidsorensen32
Posts: 387
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:57 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by davidsorensen32 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:05 pm

+100000000. The more things change, the more they remain the same ... Geez I can't believe I'm starting to sound like this veterans of this board.
runner3081 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:03 pm
There is no top. It will go up, it will go down, it will go up and then down again.

H-Town
Posts: 1309
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by H-Town » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:12 pm

k66 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest.

Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top.

I would also suggest that this topic is indeed an actionable for those of us who are (closeted or open) market timers, technologists, chartists, or astrologers.
Will you put your money on it? Or is it just for fun?

User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 454
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:37 pm

3232.32

I suspect we have 2 and a half more years of decent returns before the business cycle turns, but I'm far from dogmatic about it.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

User avatar
k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:55 pm

thangngo wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:12 pm
Will you put your money on it? Or is it just for fun?
I'll take 3775.00
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

User avatar
k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by k66 » Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm

Ladies and Gentlemen: Start your engines! The S&P 500 notched a new high today @ 2874.69 besting the January 26 high of 2872.87. Since that time we've had two trips to -10% (Feb 8th and April 2nd at 2581 and 2582 respectively), but not enough to trigger a -20% Bear.

With that, the contest is reopened (see below for a rules refresher).
k66 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 pm
LadyGeek wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:24 pm
What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner?
...
There is no preset closing date except by arriving at a 20% or greater downturn. Upon arriving at that point, the person with a guess closest to the previous high would have the winning guess. So, this contest would be somewhat open-ended.

For clarification, I suppose we should have some Addenda:
1. the S&P reference value is at the close of day (i.e. excluding any potential intra-day high).
2. Dividends are not counted, this is the index value only.
3. the winning guess has to have preceded the actual occurrence of that value (that is to say, your guess needs to be a value higher than it is at the time you place the guess).
4. the guess numerically closest to the actual forthcoming peak, without going over, is the winner.

Here's an example, the 2008/2009 crash actually had the last peak in 2007. It was 1565.15 on Oct. 09, 2007. A 20% decline was not achieved until July 09, 2008 when the value dipped to 1244.68 (a drop of 20.5% from the previous peak). Full recovery didn't occur until March 28, 2013 (closed at 1569.19).
Edit to add: Current Leader is gogleheads.orb with 2718.28 (...a natural choice I assume)
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

lukestuckenhymer
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed May 30, 2018 11:53 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by lukestuckenhymer » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:01 pm

420

Funding secured

Whakamole
Posts: 799
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:59 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Whakamole » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:10 pm


User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 1850
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by CyclingDuo » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:15 pm

k66 wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Ladies and Gentlemen: Start your engines! The S&P 500 notched a new high today @ 2874.69 besting the January 26 high of 2872.87. Since that time we've had two trips to -10% (Feb 8th and April 2nd at 2581 and 2582 respectively), but not enough to trigger a -20% Bear.
Somebody may as well step up to the plate and throw a number out for this cycle run before the next recession:

3737.19
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

User avatar
ReformedSpender
Posts: 228
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:24 pm
Location: Stone's Throw from Vanguard

Re: Call the Top!

Post by ReformedSpender » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:23 pm

3666

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 37099
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Call the Top!

Post by nisiprius » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:10 pm

The bulls and bears are too full of cares
And I don't want to break a sweat;
Instead of making an Alpha-bet,
I'll settle yet, for what I get,
My predilection for stock prediction
Has frequently done me wrong,
I won't make forecasts
That turn out poorcasts,
So I'll just sing you a little song:

You're the top!
You're a fiddling Nero!
You're the top!
You're a Fido Zero®!
You're the HmL,
You're the closing bell,
You rock!
You're the SmB,
You're the S&P--
You're Apple stock!

You're the top!
You're the Russian ruble,
You're the top!
You're a Barney Google,
I'm a sinking chip that flips when it should flop--
But if baby, I'm the bottom, you're the top!

You're the top!
You're some art by Erte!
You're the top!
A Bolívar Fuerte!
You're a penthouse view
Of a sky that's blue
At dusk;
You're a chocolate malt,
You're a liquid alt,
You're Elon Musk!

You're the top!
You're a Giotto seraph,
You're the top!
You're a US tariff,
I have sung off-key and it's time for me to stop--
But if baby, I'm the bottom, you're the top!
Last edited by nisiprius on Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 4337
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by whodidntante » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:14 pm

lukestuckenhymer wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:01 pm
420

Funding secured
A man who wants to make sure we can live on Mars can't be bothered with SEC rules or fuddy duddy Wall Street traditions.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1680
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:39 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:10 pm
The bulls and bears are too full of cares
And I don't want to break a sweat;
Instead of making an Alpha-bet,
I'll settle yet, for what I get,
My predilection for stock prediction
Has frequently done me wrong,
I won't make forecasts
That turn out poorcasts,
So I'll just sing you a little song:

You're the top!
You're a fiddling Nero!
You're the top!
You're a Fido Zero®!
You're the HmL,
You're the closing bell,
You rock!
You're the SmB,
You're the S&P--
You're Apple stock!

You're the top!
You're the Russian ruble,
You're the top!
You're a Barney Google,
I'm a sinking chip that flips when it should flop--
But if baby, I'm the bottom, you're the top!
Definitely one for Frank Sinatra.

User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 6324
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by JoMoney » Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:40 am

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:03 am
S&P 500 @ $7,000
It might be a while, but I'm sticking with my call :greedy
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

fujiters
Posts: 136
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:17 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by fujiters » Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:14 am

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:10 pm
The bulls and bears are too full of cares
And I don't want to break a sweat;
Instead of making an Alpha-bet,
I'll settle yet, for what I get,
My predilection for stock prediction
Has frequently done me wrong,
I won't make forecasts
That turn out poorcasts,
So I'll just sing you a little song:

You're the top!
You're a fiddling Nero!
You're the top!
You're a Fido Zero®!
You're the HmL,
You're the closing bell,
You rock!
You're the SmB,
You're the S&P--
You're Apple stock!

You're the top!
You're the Russian ruble,
You're the top!
You're a Barney Google,
I'm a sinking chip that flips when it should flop--
But if baby, I'm the bottom, you're the top!
*applause*
“The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” -Benjamin Graham

tenkuky
Posts: 580
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:28 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by tenkuky » Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:52 am

Nisi Porter
Uncle Cole would be proud :beer

timmy
Posts: 725
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 2:57 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by timmy » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:43 am

Not a number, a period ... Q2 2019. A recession will follow. The stock markets slide will last until Q1 2020. It'll bounce around after, making no real progress, until mid 2021. Then the fun will begin again.

Yours truly,

Michel "timmy" Nostredame
Last edited by timmy on Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

WanderingDoc
Posts: 1288
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:21 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:54 am

CyclingDuo wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:15 pm
k66 wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Ladies and Gentlemen: Start your engines! The S&P 500 notched a new high today @ 2874.69 besting the January 26 high of 2872.87. Since that time we've had two trips to -10% (Feb 8th and April 2nd at 2581 and 2582 respectively), but not enough to trigger a -20% Bear.
Somebody may as well step up to the plate and throw a number out for this cycle run before the next recession:

3737.19
Have we recently hit a new high?
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 49327
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Call the Top!

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:54 am

fujiters wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:14 am
nisiprius wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:10 pm
...So I'll just sing you a little song:...
*applause*
Same here:👏 👏 👏

(The forum software understands emojis.)
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 1850
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by CyclingDuo » Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:13 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:54 am
Have we recently hit a new high?
This has been a very similar 7 month correction within a bull market as we experienced in the 7 months back in 2011-2012. See the anatomy of a stock market correction (scroll down to resuming the trend near the bottom of this blog post for a very similar S&P 500 chart pattern in 2011-12 as the current one pictured below): http://www.mindfulsharetrader.com/anato ... orrection/

Image
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

WanderingDoc
Posts: 1288
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:21 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:40 am

Hasn't technical analysis been debunked as taro and witchcraft? I think Jack Bogle dismissed it entirely in the Common Sense book, although I could be thinking of a totally different book.
CyclingDuo wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:13 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:54 am
Have we recently hit a new high?
This has been a very similar 7 month correction within a bull market as we experienced in the 7 months back in 2011-2012. See the anatomy of a stock market correction (scroll down to resuming the trend near the bottom of this blog post for a very similar S&P 500 chart pattern in 2011-12 as the current one pictured below): http://www.mindfulsharetrader.com/anato ... orrection/

Image
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 6324
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Call the Top!

Post by JoMoney » Sat Aug 25, 2018 12:48 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:40 am
Hasn't technical analysis been debunked as taro and witchcraft? I think Jack Bogle dismissed it entirely in the Common Sense book, although I could be thinking of a totally different book.
...
I would point out that the OP acknowledged that this thread might be geared specificly to technical analysis
k66 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
...I would also suggest that this topic is indeed an actionable for those of us who are (closeted or open) market timers, technologists, chartists, or astrologers.
And the evidence on that strategy is muddled
http://farmdoc.illinois.edu/marketing/a ... S04_04.pdf
... Among a total of 92 modern studies,
58 studies found positive results regarding technical trading strategies, while 24 studies obtained
negative results. Ten studies indicated mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the
profitability of technical trading strategies, it appears that most empirical studies are subject to
various problems in their testing procedures, e.g., data snooping, ex post selection of trading
rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future
research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the
profitability of technical trading strategies.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

User avatar
villars
Posts: 200
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 11:07 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by villars » Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:12 am

3560.5

User avatar
Mursili
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue May 15, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Call the Top!

Post by Mursili » Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:43 am

k66 wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Edit to add: Current Leader is gogleheads.orb with 2718.28 (...a natural choice I assume)
Very well done there.

If no one has taken 3141.59, I will try that.
When it comes to havoc, no one wreaks like me! - Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz

User avatar
dougger5
Posts: 287
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:58 am
Location: Not far from Malvern

Re: Call the Top!

Post by dougger5 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:09 am

Infinity+1

Regards,
John
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai

Post Reply