I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

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corn18
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I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by corn18 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:59 pm

And I am going to do nothing. Well, I might go out to dinner with my wife.

Carry on.

:sharebeer

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knpstr
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by knpstr » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:04 pm

Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Epsilon Delta
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by Epsilon Delta » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:04 pm

Are peaks in a bubble or are bubbles at a peak? :confused

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nisiprius
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by nisiprius » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:04 pm

Can you at least tell us what asset the bubble is in? I too, plan to do nothing, but I want to be sure I know what to do nothing about. I would hate to do nothing and discover that it was wasted effort because I was steadfastly staying the course in something that wasn't in a bubble.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

aristotelian
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by aristotelian » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:05 pm

I see a 5-10% correction. But I have been seeing a 5-10% correction since January and the market has gone up 20%.

TheHouse7
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by TheHouse7 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:06 pm

:D SELL, SELL, SELL.
"PSX will always go up 20%, why invest in anything else?!" -Father-in-law early retired.

beardsworth
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by beardsworth » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:29 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:04 pm
Can you at least tell us what asset the bubble is in? I too, plan to do nothing, but I want to be sure I know what to do nothing about. I would hate to do nothing and discover that it was wasted effort because I was steadfastly staying the course in something that wasn't in a bubble.
I'm trying to decide if nisiprius is a contrarian indicator, in which case I might do something about the thing that nisiprius is doing nothing about.

Swelfie
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by Swelfie » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:35 pm

beardsworth wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:29 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:04 pm
Can you at least tell us what asset the bubble is in? I too, plan to do nothing, but I want to be sure I know what to do nothing about. I would hate to do nothing and discover that it was wasted effort because I was steadfastly staying the course in something that wasn't in a bubble.
I'm trying to decide if nisiprius is a contrarian indicator, in which case I might do something about the thing that nisiprius is doing nothing about.
That's exactly what I'm doing. I can assure you that I am doing something and I'm fairly certain it is not what nisiprius is doing. Although the things we are not doing likely have significant overlap.

3funder
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by 3funder » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:36 pm

Haha it sucks so much. I keep throwing money at it, knowing that if my time horizon were 10 years, I'd be a fool to buy US stocks at these levels. Thank God it's at least 3x that.
Last edited by 3funder on Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

remomnyc
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by remomnyc » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:43 pm

I'm glad I maxed out my 2017 contributions in July. It was painful to invest even back then. No more to invest until next year. Then, I will hold my nose and throw money at the market until I hand in my pink slip.

beardsworth
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by beardsworth » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:10 pm

Keep in mind that the OP didn’t simply declare a bubble but also a peak.

And, as the OP says, this may in fact be the peak, to be followed by a slow leak or a loud squeak. On the other hand, this may not be the peak. It may just be a peek of the peak from this particular week, when certainty is weak. The outcome isn’t known even to the freakiest geek anyone could seek, and predictions may still turn out to reek.

staythecourse
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by staythecourse » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:19 pm

beardsworth wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:29 pm
I'm trying to decide if nisiprius is a contrarian indicator, in which case I might do something about the thing that nisiprius is doing nothing about.
Not Nisi, but have thought what the data is on market movements in the 1 day, 7 day, and 1 month following an update on the "US stocks in freefall" thread.

Also, have thought how interesting it would be to a have a word cloud on the most frequent used words of the day on this board and see if any of them would be contrarian indicators. For example, do we see stocks continue to go up when there is an increase in threads like this one. Would be interesting to see.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

Bungo
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by Bungo » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:23 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:05 pm
I see a 5-10% correction. But I have been seeing a 5-10% correction since January and the market has gone up 20%.
OMG, a 5-10% correction? The sky is falling!

It wasn't that many years ago (OK, nine years) when the market was routinely swinging by that much almost every day.

lt1948
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by lt1948 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:26 pm

I'm going to collect my VTI and VXUS December Dividends, plow them back into more shares and keep buying more over time, I don't care if we're at the top or bottom!

coupleofcents
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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by coupleofcents » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:32 pm

beardsworth wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:10 pm
Keep in mind that the OP didn’t simply declare a bubble but also a peak.

And, as the OP says, this may in fact be the peak, to be followed by a slow leak or a loud squeak. On the other hand, this may not be the peak. It may just be a peek of the peak from this particular week, when certainty is weak. The outcome isn’t known even to the freakiest geek anyone could seek, and predictions may still turn out to reek.
Started to think I was reading a Dr. Seuss forum. Very nice.

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Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:33 pm

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