What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

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Hawaiishrimp
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What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:58 pm

What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown? Totally thinking out loud.
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

PFInterest
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by PFInterest » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:09 pm

Anything. Next question.

dbr
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by dbr » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:11 pm

PFInterest wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:09 pm
Anything. Next question.
Or nothing.

carruthers209
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by carruthers209 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:19 pm

www.cnbc.com/2017/11/02/incoming-ceo-of ... night.html

Vanguard's Tim Buckley shared that his biggest fear in running the multitrillion dollar investment firm: getting hacked.

Buckley, who succeeds Bill McNabb as CEO on Jan. 1, was asked at the 2nd-annual Evidence-Based Investing conference what keeps him up at night.

"Cyber," he replied at Thursday's conference in New York. "It is front of mind all the time. It's a huge investment for us."

"You have to make sure you have defense in depth. Making sure you have a strong perimeter."

The executive said he feels the burden for the retirements of millions of clients and the firm's trillions of dollars in assets.

"I'm already stressing myself out [talking about it]," he said.
Last edited by carruthers209 on Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Hawaiishrimp
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:24 pm

dbr wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:11 pm
PFInterest wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:09 pm
Anything. Next question.
Or nothing.
Great input. We all know that will be the default answers by Bogleheads. It's a forum and having a conversation is fun. Don't be too stubborn, it's okay to think wild thoughts. Nobody get hurts.
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

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Hawaiishrimp
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:26 pm

Cyber security... interesting, never thought of that.

IMO, it can't be N. Korea, they are too incompetent.
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

J295
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by J295 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:31 pm

NFC wins Sper Bowl. 😃

KlangFool
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by KlangFool » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:39 pm

OP,

The truth is for every market meltdown, it took several years before a reasonable explanation showed up. But, even in that case, it may not be the real reason. And, probably the real reason may never be known.

KlangFool

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Crimsontide
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by Crimsontide » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:40 pm

Alabama loses to Auburn... wait, what? Never mind....

TheHouse7
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by TheHouse7 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:40 pm

Crude oil take another solid dip. :D
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lack_ey
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by lack_ey » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:42 pm

A number of bad things would or at least could trigger the next market meltdown. The last hundred years, the causes have been various:

Image
(click for larger; table from J.P. Morgan's Guide to the Markets; above figures are price return only, so not as useful, and for example overstate 1929 for sure)

I guess you could argue a little about some of the above. Attribution is difficult when there are a lot of moving pieces.

That's just for some ideas. Could be something else. What do you consider a meltdown, anyway?

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badbreath
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by badbreath » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:45 pm

I think you selling now may do it. :D
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ray.james
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by ray.james » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:52 pm

I think a mismatch of fed tightening/inflation tug of war will cause the next one.
I do not think extreme valuation unless we have atleast another great year like current one. Possible/upcoming tax changes adjustment to eps is expected at 10-15% which will bring P/E 1 to 20.

~~ just totally thinking out loud.
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nisiprius
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by nisiprius » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:13 pm

The same thing that triggers the fall of a Jenga tower.

Or the eruption of Mount Agung. Or an earthquake in Mexico.

The same thing that made the tornado destroy one building and leave the building next to it completely unharmed.

Nobody knows.

The system becomes unstable, there are a thousand perturbations that are not quite big enough to bring it down, and then as it becomes more and more unstable, one of them, no different from the nine hundred and ninety others, happens to be the one that does.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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David Jay
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by David Jay » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:16 pm

See the first quotation in my signature below.
V V V
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sometimesinvestor
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by sometimesinvestor » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:35 pm

It might not trigger a meltdown but if the ten year treasury has a yield of 3.75% or over stocks would certainly be overpriced and many non buy and holders would get out

TheAccountant
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by TheAccountant » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:35 pm

I think a combination of things will lead to the next meltdown. The fed tightening policy, tension overseas with North Korea, people pulling their money out of the market just as easy as they put it in thanks to apps like Robinhood, and oil increasing to the point where people start to realize that electric cars are not the end all be all solution to the world's problems. Also, people becoming house poor because they couldn't wait for the market to stabilize.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:42 pm

Leverage
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:45 pm

Crimsontide wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:40 pm
Alabama loses to Auburn... wait, what? Never mind....
Tennessee goes a whole season without winning a single SEC game.

Uh oh ....
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Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:51 pm

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