Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

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retprof
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by retprof » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:40 pm

john4546 wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 am

The U.S. is monetarily sovereign - meaning it is a currency issuer, and the U.S. federal government, like the Japanese government, and any other country that issues its own currency, cannot go bankrupt, ever. These countries can always pay their debts. Do a google search and learn about "Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)."

Please see these websites if you want to learn more:

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com

https://mythfighter.com
Is MMT post-Hayek? Hayek used to advocate for the end of the government’s monopoly as a currency issuer. He predicted that the coexistence of several currencies would improve the government-issued currency by reducing inflation (in his view, even moderate inflation imposes huge costs on society by leading to resource missallocation and, as a result, deeper business cycles).

I’ve been recently reading about Hayek and assume all his theories have become obsolete, but have no idea what they’ve been replaced with. Is it MMT?

retprof
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by retprof » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:52 pm

retprof wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:40 pm
john4546 wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 am

The U.S. is monetarily sovereign - meaning it is a currency issuer, and the U.S. federal government, like the Japanese government, and any other country that issues its own currency, cannot go bankrupt, ever. These countries can always pay their debts. Do a google search and learn about "Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)."

Please see these websites if you want to learn more:

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com

https://mythfighter.com

Is MMT post-Hayek? Hayek used to advocate for the end of the government’s monopoly as a currency issuer. He predicted that the coexistence of several currencies would improve the government-issued currency by reducing inflation (in his view, even moderate inflation imposes huge costs on society by leading to resource missallocation and, as a result, deeper business cycles).

I’ve been recently reading about Hayek and assume all his theories have become obsolete, but have no idea what they’ve been replaced with. Is it MMT?
I see that MMT is also completely discredited by mainstream economists. So is there a modern monetary theory that can be summarized to lay people?

Finridge
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Finridge » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:58 am

"This time is different."

That's the name of a book, and I think bitcoin will be the next chapter in a future edition.

https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Differ ... 0691152640

"Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters."

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oldzey
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by oldzey » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:23 pm

Looks like Warren Buffett concurs with Jack:

"We don't own any, we're not short any, we'll never have a position in them,"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/buffett ... badly.html
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:43 pm

retprof wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:52 pm
retprof wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:40 pm
john4546 wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 am

The U.S. is monetarily sovereign - meaning it is a currency issuer, and the U.S. federal government, like the Japanese government, and any other country that issues its own currency, cannot go bankrupt, ever. These countries can always pay their debts. Do a google search and learn about "Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)."

Please see these websites if you want to learn more:

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com

https://mythfighter.com

Is MMT post-Hayek? Hayek used to advocate for the end of the government’s monopoly as a currency issuer. He predicted that the coexistence of several currencies would improve the government-issued currency by reducing inflation (in his view, even moderate inflation imposes huge costs on society by leading to resource missallocation and, as a result, deeper business cycles).

I’ve been recently reading about Hayek and assume all his theories have become obsolete, but have no idea what they’ve been replaced with. Is it MMT?
I see that MMT is also completely discredited by mainstream economists. So is there a modern monetary theory that can be summarized to lay people?
Although Steve Keen's book is worth a read.

Monetarism is pretty dead. Mainstream macro economics moved on to "Freshwater Schools" (Rochester, Chicago, Minnesota, Carnegie Mellon) and Real Business Cycle theory-- which doesn't pay too much attention to money, AFAIK. Recessions are caused by exogenous shocks - such as people not wanting to work as much, or technological changes ("the Sunspot Effect"). Government or Central Bank policy has only short term effects, because (Lucas Sargent Proposition) market participants rapidly adjust their expectations and behaviour to account for that policy once it becomes known.

If you look at Japan, you'd have to suspect they have a point. No monetary action or fiscal policy, no matter how rash, seems to have much ability to restore growth.

The counterforce, such as it is, is the neo Keynesians ("Saltwater Schools" like Harvard, MIT, Berkeley), and they don't worry too hard about money, either. Recessions are caused by deficiencies in aggregate demand (actually that's a Keynesian view - not sure what the neo Keynesian view is). And Hyman Minsky has come back (literally from the dead). The impact of macro stability is more risk taking, which causes larger crises. There had been a tendency to ignore finance and financial markets, as just an intermediary -- and Minsky put it back in the centre of things.

There's a school which says that old-fashioned IS-LM analysis as I was taught in undergrad is still the most useful model (Krugman in particular).

retprof
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by retprof » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:14 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:43 pm
retprof wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:52 pm
retprof wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:40 pm
john4546 wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 am

The U.S. is monetarily sovereign - meaning it is a currency issuer, and the U.S. federal government, like the Japanese government, and any other country that issues its own currency, cannot go bankrupt, ever. These countries can always pay their debts. Do a google search and learn about "Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)."

Please see these websites if you want to learn more:

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com

https://mythfighter.com

Is MMT post-Hayek? Hayek used to advocate for the end of the government’s monopoly as a currency issuer. He predicted that the coexistence of several currencies would improve the government-issued currency by reducing inflation (in his view, even moderate inflation imposes huge costs on society by leading to resource missallocation and, as a result, deeper business cycles).

I’ve been recently reading about Hayek and assume all his theories have become obsolete, but have no idea what they’ve been replaced with. Is it MMT?
I see that MMT is also completely discredited by mainstream economists. So is there a modern monetary theory that can be summarized to lay people?
Although Steve Keen's book is worth a read.

Monetarism is pretty dead. Mainstream macro economics moved on to "Freshwater Schools" (Rochester, Chicago, Minnesota, Carnegie Mellon) and Real Business Cycle theory-- which doesn't pay too much attention to money, AFAIK. Recessions are caused by exogenous shocks - such as people not wanting to work as much, or technological changes ("the Sunspot Effect"). Government or Central Bank policy has only short term effects, because (Lucas Sargent Proposition) market participants rapidly adjust their expectations and behaviour to account for that policy once it becomes known.

If you look at Japan, you'd have to suspect they have a point. No monetary action or fiscal policy, no matter how rash, seems to have much ability to restore growth.

The counterforce, such as it is, is the neo Keynesians ("Saltwater Schools" like Harvard, MIT, Berkeley), and they don't worry too hard about money, either. Recessions are caused by deficiencies in aggregate demand (actually that's a Keynesian view - not sure what the neo Keynesian view is). And Hyman Minsky has come back (literally from the dead). The impact of macro stability is more risk taking, which causes larger crises. There had been a tendency to ignore finance and financial markets, as just an intermediary -- and Minsky put it back in the centre of things.

There's a school which says that old-fashioned IS-LM analysis as I was taught in undergrad is still the most useful model (Krugman in particular).
Thank you, this is very enlightening!

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kenyan
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by kenyan » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:28 pm

Does bitcoin do anything that other cryptocurrencies don't do? From what I've read, which is limited, it has very high transaction fees and inconvenient transaction times (possibly hours). Won't something else in the future improve on these and other aspects? Don't some of the other cryptos already improve on some of these, such as Ethereum?

Even if I were all-in on blockchain technology, why would I choose bitcoin, aside from being first to market and having the most name recognition - for now? Legitimate questions; I'm not an expert.
Retirement investing is a marathon.

hilink73
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by hilink73 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:38 pm

kenyan wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:28 pm
Does bitcoin do anything that other cryptocurrencies don't do? From what I've read, which is limited, it has very high transaction fees and inconvenient transaction times (possibly hours). Won't something else in the future improve on these and other aspects? Don't some of the other cryptos already improve on some of these, such as Ethereum?

Even if I were all-in on blockchain technology, why would I choose bitcoin, aside from being first to market and having the most name recognition - for now? Legitimate questions; I'm not an expert.
Yes, there are already other, better solutions available and under heavy development.
But people only talk about Bitcoin. Which leaves the good investments still to the geeks for some more time... (oops, d-d-dit I just say the i-word?)

john4546
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by john4546 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:34 pm

Clint Ballinger — When Bitcoin goes to Zero, Don’t Blame Regulation:

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com ... es-to.html

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by nisiprius » Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:49 pm

Cold fusion was easy to explain, too.

"Two of the world's top electrochemists have discovered that how to achieve hydrogen fusion easily, cheaply, and at room temperature. No huge magnets, no giant electricity supplies, no tokamaks. It's a simple electrolytic process that they have demonstrated on a lab bench, using a palladium catalyst. The electric field hydrogen atoms into the palladium, and the palladium forces them so close together that they fuse. It's a breakthrough that will completely transform the world as we know it, providing limitless supplies of energy too cheap to meter. You can build cold fusion generators in all sizes, including small ones. You can put a cold fusion generator under the hood of your car. Gee, maybe I should buy some palladium futures."

Unless you were following at the time it might be hard to realize just how seriously it was taken. Pons and Fleischmann were real scientists from top universities, respected people in their field, their stuff was being published in legitimate peer-reviewed journals including several in Nature. And as far as I know there was never a breath of financial scandal or scam, they were not trying to start a business or attract investors.
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by telemark » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:08 pm

kenyan wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:28 pm
Does bitcoin do anything that other cryptocurrencies don't do? From what I've read, which is limited, it has very high transaction fees and inconvenient transaction times (possibly hours). Won't something else in the future improve on these and other aspects? Don't some of the other cryptos already improve on some of these, such as Ethereum?

Even if I were all-in on blockchain technology, why would I choose bitcoin, aside from being first to market and having the most name recognition - for now? Legitimate questions; I'm not an expert.
Only Bitcoin is Bitcoin and in that sense it is irreplaceable, just as only Monero is Monero and only KodakCoin is KodakCoin and only Dogecoin is Dogecoin and only TulipCoin is TulipCoin and only Useless Ethereum Tokens are Useless Ethereum Tokens (I am not making these up). But they all use blockchain, so when someone points to a new use of blockchain--or more often, some hypothetical new application that hasn't been found yet but surely will--there's no obvious reason to expect that to raise the price of Bitcoin. Buying Bitcoins because blockchain has a great future is like buying moon rocks because space exploration has a great future.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Gadget » Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:47 pm

MMM posted a very Bogle like piece on bitcoin. I find it interesting because I'm guessing a large portion of his user base and age group are bitcoin investors.

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01 ... is-stupid/

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by Nate79 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:49 pm

Gadget wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:47 pm
MMM posted a very Bogle like piece on bitcoin. I find it interesting because I'm guessing a large portion of his user base and age group are bitcoin investors.

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01 ... is-stupid/
The MMM forums are definitely not pro bitcoin.

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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:00 pm

I removed an off-topic post and reply related to uses of blockchain technology that are not relevant for investing. The discussion was starting to derail.
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Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Post by cfs » Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:10 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:19 pm
. . . . . . . .
Mister Time Lord, enjoy your forum sabbaticus . . . Good luck, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
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