Are we headed for a crash or...

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Bigbonds
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Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by Bigbonds »

Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.

https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
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Nate79
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by Nate79 »

Based on that chart looks like we are headed for a 17 year boom. Is that how you read it?
Teague
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by Teague »

Maybe we're overdue for another 1929 event?

http://www.offthegridnews.com/wp-conten ... -chart.jpg

The wonderful thing about the chart in the OP is that the way the lines are drawn the market never goes down - only flat followed by steep gains. Cool!
Last edited by Teague on Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by letsgobobby »

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Sandtrap
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by Sandtrap »

I don't know if I can make it another 17 years. . . or will I be cognizant at that time to know what a crash is. :shock:
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by CyclingDuo »

Nate79 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:38 am Based on that chart looks like we are headed for a 17 year boom. Is that how you read it?
:beer

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee »

We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind.

We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for gains. How much? When? Don't know.

The answer is careful and rational portfolio construction, planning, and staying the course.

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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by abuss368 »

If we could predict the future we would be very wealthy!
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garlandwhizzer
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by garlandwhizzer »

Phineas J Whoopee wrote:
We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind.

We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for gains. How much? When? Don't know.

The answer is careful and rational portfolio construction, planning, and staying the course.
1+

I think PJW sums it up well.

Garland Whizzer
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TD2626
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by TD2626 »

garlandwhizzer wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:32 pm
Phineas J Whoopee wrote:
We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind.

We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for gains. How much? When? Don't know.

The answer is careful and rational portfolio construction, planning, and staying the course.
1+

I think PJW sums it up well.

Garland Whizzer
+2

My opinions:
It is possible that the market will crash. It is possible that it will rise. It is possible that the market will drift sideways. Prediction of what will occur with high accuracy is what is virtually impossible. (Note - if we held a vote, and 10 people said the market would go up and 10 said it would go down, and it went up, those who were correct would likely be lucky, not smart. Making a prediction is as easy as writing "up" or "down". Making a prediction that is highly accurate, such that you are able to foresee the future, is virtually impossible. The efficient market hypothesis largely limits this sort of endeavor.
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Toons
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by Toons »

Yes eventually we are headed for a ,
Crash="Opportunity"
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by 2pedals »

Bigbonds wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:35 am Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.

https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
The beginning is now, but nobody knows nothing
sambb
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by sambb »

2pedals wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:29 pm
Bigbonds wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:35 am Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.

https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
The beginning is now, but nobody knows nothing
Nobody knows nothing is a double negative which means that everyone knows something, i thought. Thsts not what he meant though?
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k66
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by k66 »

It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff...

In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 year super-cycle, which then repeats (one assumes) ad infinitum:

Image

Some real "patterns in the clouds" stuff if you ask me!
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Tycoon
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by Tycoon »

k66 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:35 pm It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff...

In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 year super-cycle, which then repeats (one assumes) ad infinitum:

Image

Some real "patterns in the clouds" stuff if you ask me!
Wow!
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rustymutt
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by rustymutt »

My stats point to continued slow growth, but steady in the area of 6 to 8% average going forth. Some down years are possible anytime in the short term. And I believe emerging markets will way out perform in the next 5-10 year period, and possibly beyond by years if not decades. Now, if you've read my comment to this point, you can toss it out and all the other so called professionals and the forecast going forward,
because nobody really knows
when that will happen. Markets, act like children at times. It's Alive!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmzsWxPLIOo
Last edited by rustymutt on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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2pedals
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by 2pedals »

sambb wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:30 pm
2pedals wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:29 pm
Bigbonds wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:35 am Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.

https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
The beginning is now, but nobody knows nothing
Nobody knows nothing is a double negative which means that everyone knows something, i thought. Thsts not what he meant though?
Is nobody and nothing really a double negative? I think nobody and nothing is not negative and they are not positive either, so they are 0 x 0 = 0.
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nisiprius
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by nisiprius »

HAMLET: Do you see yonder cloud that's almost in shape of a camel?
LORD POLONIUS: By the mass, and 'tis like a camel, indeed.
HAMLET: Methinks it is like a weasel.
LORD POLONIUS: It is backed like a weasel.
HAMLET: Or like a whale?
LORD POLONIUS: Very like a whale.

Take a clean copy of that chart, try to forget what you saw, and draw your own lines as best you can.

Are you sure that this isn't just as good a fit? Of course, "24, 6, 3, 36, 11, 12, 5, 14, 6" or "24, 6, 3, 36, 11, 17, 14, 6" isn't quite as... pretty.

Image

Seriously, does anyone have any statistical tools that could take the data and produce "the best piecewise-linear fit using ten line segments or less?"
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SimpleGift
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by SimpleGift »

In a long bull market, it can be easy to forget that, historically, the U.S. market has had negative returns almost one-third of the time (chart below) — in fact, in 28 out of 89 years from 1927-2016, or 31% of years. And some of these market meltdowns have been gut-wrenching, as in 2008.
  • Image
    Note: Annual returns shown are price only.
    Source: MacroTrends
All one can do is accept that market declines are part of the investing landscape — and have a crash protection plan, just like for a hurricane or an earthquake. Make sure you have a large enough cash reserve or emergency fund so you don't have to sell depressed shares, even if you lose your job. And make sure you have a large enough allocation to high-quality bonds so you don't panic and can rebalance into lower priced stocks.

Now seems like as a good time as any to review one's crash protection plan, while the markets are reaching new highs.
Last edited by SimpleGift on Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
jef
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Post by jef »

Great charts

Great thread

Nobody knows nuthin
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