Are we headed for a crash or...
Are we headed for a crash or...
Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.
https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
Based on that chart looks like we are headed for a 17 year boom. Is that how you read it?
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
Maybe we're overdue for another 1929 event?
http://www.offthegridnews.com/wp-conten ... -chart.jpg
The wonderful thing about the chart in the OP is that the way the lines are drawn the market never goes down - only flat followed by steep gains. Cool!
http://www.offthegridnews.com/wp-conten ... -chart.jpg
The wonderful thing about the chart in the OP is that the way the lines are drawn the market never goes down - only flat followed by steep gains. Cool!
Last edited by Teague on Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
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Last edited by letsgobobby on Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
I don't know if I can make it another 17 years. . . or will I be cognizant at that time to know what a crash is.
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel |
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind.
We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for gains. How much? When? Don't know.
The answer is careful and rational portfolio construction, planning, and staying the course.
PJW
We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for gains. How much? When? Don't know.
The answer is careful and rational portfolio construction, planning, and staying the course.
PJW
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
If we could predict the future we would be very wealthy!
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
1+Phineas J Whoopee wrote:
We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind.
We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for gains. How much? When? Don't know.
The answer is careful and rational portfolio construction, planning, and staying the course.
I think PJW sums it up well.
Garland Whizzer
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
+2garlandwhizzer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:32 pm1+Phineas J Whoopee wrote:
We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind.
We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for gains. How much? When? Don't know.
The answer is careful and rational portfolio construction, planning, and staying the course.
I think PJW sums it up well.
Garland Whizzer
My opinions:
It is possible that the market will crash. It is possible that it will rise. It is possible that the market will drift sideways. Prediction of what will occur with high accuracy is what is virtually impossible. (Note - if we held a vote, and 10 people said the market would go up and 10 said it would go down, and it went up, those who were correct would likely be lucky, not smart. Making a prediction is as easy as writing "up" or "down". Making a prediction that is highly accurate, such that you are able to foresee the future, is virtually impossible. The efficient market hypothesis largely limits this sort of endeavor.
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
Yes eventually we are headed for a ,
Crash="Opportunity"
Crash="Opportunity"
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
The beginning is now, but nobody knows nothingBigbonds wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:35 am Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.
https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
Nobody knows nothing is a double negative which means that everyone knows something, i thought. Thsts not what he meant though?2pedals wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:29 pmThe beginning is now, but nobody knows nothingBigbonds wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:35 am Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.
https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff...
In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 year super-cycle, which then repeats (one assumes) ad infinitum:
Some real "patterns in the clouds" stuff if you ask me!
In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 year super-cycle, which then repeats (one assumes) ad infinitum:
Some real "patterns in the clouds" stuff if you ask me!
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
Wow!k66 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:35 pm It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff...
In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 year super-cycle, which then repeats (one assumes) ad infinitum:
Some real "patterns in the clouds" stuff if you ask me!
Emotionless, prognostication free investing. Ignoring the noise and economists since 1979. Getting rich off of "smart people's" behavioral mistakes.
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
My stats point to continued slow growth, but steady in the area of 6 to 8% average going forth. Some down years are possible anytime in the short term. And I believe emerging markets will way out perform in the next 5-10 year period, and possibly beyond by years if not decades. Now, if you've read my comment to this point, you can toss it out and all the other so called professionals and the forecast going forward,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmzsWxPLIOo
when that will happen. Markets, act like children at times. It's Alive!because nobody really knows
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmzsWxPLIOo
Last edited by rustymutt on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Even educators need education. And some can be hard headed to the point of needing time out.
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
Is nobody and nothing really a double negative? I think nobody and nothing is not negative and they are not positive either, so they are 0 x 0 = 0.sambb wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:30 pmNobody knows nothing is a double negative which means that everyone knows something, i thought. Thsts not what he meant though?2pedals wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:29 pmThe beginning is now, but nobody knows nothingBigbonds wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:35 am Is this just the beginning? Of course past is no prediction of the future but I found this chart pretty interesting.
https://www.beacontechnologies.com/blog ... -cycle.jpg
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
HAMLET: Do you see yonder cloud that's almost in shape of a camel?
LORD POLONIUS: By the mass, and 'tis like a camel, indeed.
HAMLET: Methinks it is like a weasel.
LORD POLONIUS: It is backed like a weasel.
HAMLET: Or like a whale?
LORD POLONIUS: Very like a whale.
Take a clean copy of that chart, try to forget what you saw, and draw your own lines as best you can.
Are you sure that this isn't just as good a fit? Of course, "24, 6, 3, 36, 11, 12, 5, 14, 6" or "24, 6, 3, 36, 11, 17, 14, 6" isn't quite as... pretty.
Seriously, does anyone have any statistical tools that could take the data and produce "the best piecewise-linear fit using ten line segments or less?"
LORD POLONIUS: By the mass, and 'tis like a camel, indeed.
HAMLET: Methinks it is like a weasel.
LORD POLONIUS: It is backed like a weasel.
HAMLET: Or like a whale?
LORD POLONIUS: Very like a whale.
Take a clean copy of that chart, try to forget what you saw, and draw your own lines as best you can.
Are you sure that this isn't just as good a fit? Of course, "24, 6, 3, 36, 11, 12, 5, 14, 6" or "24, 6, 3, 36, 11, 17, 14, 6" isn't quite as... pretty.
Seriously, does anyone have any statistical tools that could take the data and produce "the best piecewise-linear fit using ten line segments or less?"
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
In a long bull market, it can be easy to forget that, historically, the U.S. market has had negative returns almost one-third of the time (chart below) — in fact, in 28 out of 89 years from 1927-2016, or 31% of years. And some of these market meltdowns have been gut-wrenching, as in 2008.
Now seems like as a good time as any to review one's crash protection plan, while the markets are reaching new highs.
Note: Annual returns shown are price only.
Source: MacroTrends
Now seems like as a good time as any to review one's crash protection plan, while the markets are reaching new highs.
Last edited by SimpleGift on Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Are we headed for a crash or...
Great charts
Great thread
Nobody knows nuthin
Great thread
Nobody knows nuthin