2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

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LadyGeek
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2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:25 pm

Jack Bogle's presentation is now in the wiki. See: Bogleheads® 16 - Philadelphia

I have also updated the wiki with his latest 10-year forecast: Expected future returns
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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siamond
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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by siamond » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:18 am

Thank you for sharing, Ladygeek.

Two questions:
- what is a "Virtual Index Fund" (slide 49)? Is it a fund like Wellington which is active, but nevertheless tracks an index or a combination of indices 'close enough' (i.e. R2 is at least 0.95 or something like that)?
- in Jack's usual math about expected returns (e.g. slide 64), did he explain the value and the exact source of the PE he used for the speculative component? Did anybody raise the very unfortunate change of PE methodology that Vanguard introduced a few months ago (aligning itself with Morningstar, ignoring companies with negative earnings)?

Oh, and did anybody record Jack while he was delivering this presentation, by any chance?

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siamond
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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by siamond » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:53 am

Before anybody asks, here is an article from John Bogle explaining in details his expected returns methodology.

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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by grabiner » Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:31 pm

siamond wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:18 am
- what is a "Virtual Index Fund" (slide 49)? Is it a fund like Wellington which is active, but nevertheless tracks an index or a combination of indices 'close enough' (i.e. R2 is at least 0.95 or something like that)?
Jack's definition is that an active fund is partly virtual index and partly active management; he assigns a "virtual index" fraction equal to the R^2. Thus even a narrowly focused fund may have an R^2 of .90 and be counted as only 10% active.
Wiki David Grabiner

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siamond
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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by siamond » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:12 am

Thanks, Grabiner. Got it.

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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by lutok » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:19 am

I have also updated the wiki with his latest 10-year forecast: Expected future returns
Great info. Thanks

Lucky

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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by lutok » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:14 pm

siamond wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:53 am
Before anybody asks, here is an article from John Bogle explaining in details his expected returns methodology.
Thanks for providing that link.

LS

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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by mindboggling » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:19 pm

I think it would be helpful when presenting 10-year returns in the wiki to have beginning and end dates.
In broken mathematics, We estimate our prize, --Emily Dickinson

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siamond
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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by siamond » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:34 pm

mindboggling wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:19 pm
I think it would be helpful when presenting 10-year returns in the wiki to have beginning and end dates.
Well, the publication dates are documented in the notes and the end dates are easy to derive, but agreed, this isn't visible enough, so I added the year of publication (hence the beginning date) in the title of each 'expected returns' table.

Here is the updated wiki page.

mindboggling
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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by mindboggling » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:41 pm

siamond wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:34 pm
mindboggling wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:19 pm
I think it would be helpful when presenting 10-year returns in the wiki to have beginning and end dates.
Well, the publication dates are documented in the notes and the end dates are easy to derive, but agreed, this isn't visible enough, so I added the year of publication (hence the beginning date) in the title of each 'expected returns' table.

Here is the updated wiki page.
For the casual reader (like me), it helps a lot. Thank you for your quick response.
In broken mathematics, We estimate our prize, --Emily Dickinson

simplesauce
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Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - John Bogle presentation

Post by simplesauce » Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:30 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:25 pm
Jack Bogle's presentation is now in the wiki. See: Bogleheads® 16 - Philadelphia

I have also updated the wiki with his latest 10-year forecast: Expected future returns
Very much anticipating a video of Jack’s Q&A on the 20th.

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