Is a crash coming soon?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Jacky817
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:37 am

Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Jacky817 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm

Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha

Cheers,
Jack
Last edited by Jacky817 on Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

alex_686
Posts: 2544
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:39 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by alex_686 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.

Whakamole
Posts: 466
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:59 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Whakamole » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm

alex_686 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.

thangngo
Posts: 344
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by thangngo » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:04 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
The key thing here is not to anticipate a crash, but to NOT SELL during the crash.
If you stay on the sideline with a lot of cash, odds are you'll be missing out market rally. I can bet with good confidence that you can't time market rally.

TheHouse7
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:40 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by TheHouse7 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:05 pm

No a crash is not coming any time soon (3+ years).

I'm a young investor praying every day for a market crash, and for me to keep my job. :twisted:
"PSX will always go up 20%, why invest in anything else?!" -Father-in-law early retired.

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 10369
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by HomerJ » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:14 pm

Set your Asset Allocation assuming a crash could happen tomorrow. Because it could.

This is true all the time.

A crash will happen. No one knows when. Be prepared for it to happen tomorrow. If you are close to retirement, you should have a conservative portfolio; if you are young, you can have a more aggressive portfolio, because you can ride out a crash and wait for the recovery.

Note that how long the market has gone since the last crash is not a variable. Note that market valuations are not a variable.

A crash WILL happen. And it could happen at anytime.

If you are already prepared for a crash happening tomorrow, it doesn't matter if the chances for it happening are higher or lower than yesterday. Because they are never zero. So you should always be prepared.

This makes investing very simple, and makes it easier to ignore the noise.

dccboone
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 4:02 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by dccboone » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:21 pm

Welcome to the forum Jacky817. It looks like you have been doing a bit of homework believing it will help you predict when the market will go down or up. It’s a fool’s game. Don’t waste your valuable time. And, I don’t understand why you would be reluctant to invest regularly. My recommendation is to read The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns by John (Jack) C. Bogle. It’s an important first step toward a lifetime of investing. Good luck. :moneybag

User avatar
oldcomputerguy
Posts: 1973
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:50 am
Location: In the middle of five acres of woods

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:24 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... correction
"The evidence is very clear that professional mutual fund managers cannot predict the stock market. For example, in his famous book “A Random Walk down Wall Street,” Burton Malkiel cited a Goldman Sachs study that examined mutual funds’ cash holdings for the period 1970 through 1989.

In their efforts to time the market, fund managers raise cash holdings when they believe the market will decline and lower cash holdings when they become bullish. The study found that, over the period it examined, mutual fund managers miscalled all nine major turning points."
(Emphasis added by me)

Don't worry about it. Invest according to your desired asset allocation, and stay the course. Nobody knows when the next crash will come. Nobody.
Anybody know why there's a 20-pound frozen turkey up in the light grid?

User avatar
TD2626
Posts: 512
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by TD2626 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:27 pm

TheHouse7 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:05 pm
No a crash is not coming any time soon (3+ years).

I'm a young investor praying every day for a market crash, and for me to keep my job. :twisted:
For someone with a long term time horizon and an iron stomach, a crash drives away from the market those who are inappropriately taking excessive risk and allows the rest to rebalance or DCA into low priced shares. In this regard, a crash could be viewed as helpful. Volatility is a necessary part of investing, it has its role to play.

For those inappropriately taking risk beyond their willingness, ability, and need, a crash on the other hand can be devastating, and could lead to the inability to afford food or shelter. That is why one only invests based on their willingness, ability, and need to take risk.

Also, staying the course and not market timing is central to the Boglehead philosophy. Reliably predicting a crash is hard and in my opinion likely impossible for even experts to do. Look at all the times "experts" have gotten things wrong.

alex_686
Posts: 2544
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:39 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by alex_686 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:29 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
Yes, but for the year 1987 the market was up over 5%. One bad day does not break a bull market.

KyleAAA
Posts: 6322
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:34 pm

I am extremely confident in my prediction that a crash will probably happen at some point in the future.

Whakamole
Posts: 466
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:59 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Whakamole » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:39 pm

alex_686 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:29 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
Yes, but for the year 1987 the market was up over 5%. One bad day does not break a bull market.
Not arguing that, but I would still consider Black Monday a market crash.

User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 34118
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:48 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
The question is--and it's worth actually keeping a record because we fool ourselves about our own predictions and premonitions--if you were to look back at your feelings, and the best expert consensus from reading WSJ or MarketWatch or whatever... how accurate have those been, and would you have been better off acting on them or not?

Two cases in point. First, Larry Swedroe regularly does a review of how the "sure things," the almost universal consensus expectations of the financial world, have been holding up. These are excellent. Read them. Take them to heart. At the start of the year he names a list of things that knowledgeable investors all expect, and then he tracks what really happens during the year.
Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In
He reviews eight "sure things," universally expected by knowledgable investors. Two of them came true, six did not. For example:
The eighth sure thing was that, with non-U.S. developed market and emerging market economies generally growing at a slower pace than the U.S. economy (and with many emerging markets hurt by weak commodity prices, slower growth in China’s economy, the Fed tightening monetary policy and a rising dollar), international developed market stocks would underperform U.S. stocks in 2017. Through September 30, 2017, the Vanguard Developed Markets ETF (VEA) returned 21.0%, outperforming VOO. Score: -1.
Another: in April of 2014, Bloomberg polled 67 economists on their expectations for the ten-year Treasury yield over the next six months. Every one of them, every one, 67 out of 67, 100% said yields would rise, the only differences being by how much. Yields fell.

My personal conclusion is that by far the best thing to do is, first, adjust your stock allocation to your risk tolerance, and set it low enough that you really can stay the course. Then stay the course. In other words, in the phrase attributed to J. P. Morgan, if you can't sleep because you're worrying about the stock market, "sell down to your sleeping point." You have to say "Eh, easy come, easy go." Do not increase your stock allocation during a long bull market like the one we are in, through fear of missing out, do not count on seeing the bear market coming in time to cut back... just pick a number you can live with and then live with it.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

User avatar
greg24
Posts: 2869
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:34 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by greg24 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:49 pm

Maybe.

Fallible
Posts: 6123
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:44 pm
Contact:

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Fallible » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:51 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
Welcome to the forum!

These are the kinds of thoughts and questions that should bo considered when setting an allocation, except that there should be no question that a crash is coming - it will and nobody knows when or how long or how severe. Instead, the question should be how much you can afford to lose in a market downturn before you will need the money. See the "Risk Tolerance" and "Asset Allocation" pages in the wiki.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Risk_tolerance
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
Bogleheads® wiki | Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle

sliqua
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 5:36 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by sliqua » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:52 pm

TheHouse7 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:05 pm
No a crash is not coming any time soon (3+ years).

I'm a young investor praying every day for a market crash, and for me to keep my job. :twisted:
I'm glad to see a fellow young investor recognizing the last part of your statement. So many of my friends (with liberal arts degrees) callously talk about how they can't wait for the next crash, as if their jobs in publishing and other soft arts will survive another significant downturn or correction.

aristotelian
Posts: 2990
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by aristotelian » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:05 pm

Gut feeling says 5-10% correction followed by flat market for a while.

lostdog
Posts: 623
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by lostdog » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:11 pm

Time in the market is better than timing the market.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau

Scobie
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:23 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Scobie » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:17 pm

A crash could happen and then when you decide it is safe to get in and another crash could happen. Nothing is certain.

Set it and forget it.

SirToolman
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:35 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by SirToolman » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:40 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.
There is no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term OR long term OR any term. Yes, its been 9 years since the previous crash, but it may never crash again. Or, it might crash tomorrow and never recover.

User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:01 pm

If you are young, the most effective element of your wealth building is to save more. Assuming you have a reasonable AA, are averaging in with paycheck contributions, and that you don't panic and sell in a crash - then all that's really in your control is the saving part.

I don't expect a 30% + event in the next 5 years. But then who ever does?
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

PFInterest
Posts: 379
Joined: Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:25 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by PFInterest » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:15 pm

there is always a crash coming.

Dottie57
Posts: 2235
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:43 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:31 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:01 pm
If you are young, the most effective element of your wealth building is to save more. Assuming you have a reasonable AA, are averaging in with paycheck contributions, and that you don't panic and sell in a crash - then all that's really in your control is the saving part.

I don't expect a 30% + event in the next 5 years. But then who ever does?
Keep saving. I started at 30 - had no money before then .... Starting early and consistently contributing makes a big difference.

dccboone
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 4:02 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by dccboone » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:06 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:05 pm
Gut feeling says 5-10% correction followed by flat market for a while.
I'm not banking on aristotelian's gut feeling and I hope he isn't either. :P

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 12013
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Toons » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:04 pm

Yes,
Next Question :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

sambb
Posts: 1741
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:31 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by sambb » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:19 pm

crash coming soon matters less than crash coming right before you hit your number and potentially change allocation, or right before retirement

kathyauburn
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu May 07, 2015 12:25 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by kathyauburn » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:40 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:14 pm
Set your Asset Allocation assuming a crash could happen tomorrow. Because it could.

This is true all the time.
I second this. If you're worried about a crash, your asset allocation is wrong.

Your asset allocation should reflect your risk tolerance:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=229259

Once you determine how to allow your risk tolerance to shape your asset allocation, you're done. You don't need to ask questions such as yours because the answer doesn't matter. Just don't take the phrase "risk tolerance" lightly. Read the thread I linked to above and try to understand that risk tolerance is highly subjective and very complex, a result of many factors that can and do change. I think it's safe to say that most investors who have not had their risk tolerance tested are overinvested in equities.
Last edited by kathyauburn on Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 2339
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii😀 Northern AZ.😳

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:43 pm

I hope so.
Then prices will be a bargain.
I'm ready. :D

User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 839
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:21 pm

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha
30 years ago today, obviously there was a crash that negated 22.6%. Fast forward to 30 years from today. Where do you think the market will be on October 19, 2047? A lot of swings, ups and downs between now and then - but think about it. Put a longer term time frame on it and consider what the growth potential is for the next 3 decades.

Keep your eye on the prize. Whatever happens between now and then is subterfuge, right? :mrgreen:

CULater
Posts: 459
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 10:59 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by CULater » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:44 pm

I just decided today that my risk tolerance is 10% lower than it was yesterday --- so I reduced my stock allocation accordingly. :?
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

Nate79
Posts: 1341
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:24 pm
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Nate79 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:07 am

CULater wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:44 pm
I just decided today that my risk tolerance is 10% lower than it was yesterday --- so I reduced my stock allocation accordingly. :?
Why?

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2257
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by ofcmetz » Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:29 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:14 pm
Set your Asset Allocation assuming a crash could happen tomorrow. Because it could.

This is true all the time.

^This is exactly my mindset.

The exact time and reason for a crash is unpredictable. All we know is that one day there will be one.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2257
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by ofcmetz » Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:33 am

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:43 pm
I hope so.
Then prices will be a bargain.
I'm ready. :D
Maybe or maybe not. If something fundamentally changes in the world or economy then even with a crash things may not be cheap.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 2339
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii😀 Northern AZ.😳

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Sandtrap » Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:36 am

ofcmetz wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:33 am
Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:43 pm
I hope so.
Then prices will be a bargain.
I'm ready. :D
Maybe or maybe not. If something fundamentally changes in the world or economy then even with a crash things may not be cheap.
So true. But, something will be a bargain. R/E. Apartment buildings. Who knows. :D

BogleBoogie
Posts: 471
Joined: Tue May 13, 2014 11:15 am
Location: AK

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by BogleBoogie » Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:30 am

"Nobody knows nothing." -Jack Bogle

(Also, no one on this forum knows when/if a crash is coming)

BogleBoogie
Posts: 471
Joined: Tue May 13, 2014 11:15 am
Location: AK

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by BogleBoogie » Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:31 am

Nate79 wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:07 am
CULater wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:44 pm
I just decided today that my risk tolerance is 10% lower than it was yesterday --- so I reduced my stock allocation accordingly. :?
Why?
Good question. What life circumstances changed that reduced your need or ability to take risk?

hulburt1
Posts: 245
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:17 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by hulburt1 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:52 am

Hope so I can buy-more at a lower price.

User avatar
bottlecap
Posts: 4953
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:21 pm
Location: Tennessee

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by bottlecap » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:03 am

"It feels like" is not a part of my IPS.

JT

goblue100
Posts: 340
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:31 am

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by goblue100 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:35 am

Seems to me there are far too many of these threads for a bubble bursting crash to occur. When the forum is full of people bragging about their 120% equity positions, then we can fear the crash. Right now I believe all we have to fear is a correction, which as pointed out can happen anytime. But my crystal ball is as cloudy as everyone else's.
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

User avatar
Ged
Posts: 3291
Joined: Mon May 13, 2013 1:48 pm
Location: Roke

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Ged » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:56 am

Whakamole wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
A recession is a significant decline in the economy lasting at least 6 months.

From 1985 to 2007, a period economists call the 'Great Moderation' we went 22 years where the recessions were characterized by very mild economic declines.

User avatar
bertilak
Posts: 5660
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:23 pm
Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by bertilak » Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:19 am

"Is a crash coming soon?"


I think the biggest unknown is your definition of "soon."
Listen very carefully. I shall say this only once. (There! I've said it.)

User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 2339
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii😀 Northern AZ.😳

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Sandtrap » Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:21 am

Ged wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:56 am
Whakamole wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:01 pm
alex_686 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:58 pm
Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years.
But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market.
Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip in the market.
A recession is a significant decline in the economy lasting at least 6 months.

From 1985 to 2007, a period economists call the 'Great Moderation' we went 22 years where the recessions were characterized by very mild economic declines.
How much of a decline is a "significant" decline?
Thanks.
j

User avatar
serbeer
Posts: 1062
Joined: Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:09 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by serbeer » Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:30 am

Here is Kiplinger article that attemps to answer this question:
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/invest ... t-end.html
You can choose whether to believe it or not :)

looking
Posts: 613
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:14 pm
Location: morgan hill ,ca

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by looking » Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:34 am

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha

Cheers,
Jack
Hey Jack
trillion question

HiroProtag
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:42 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by HiroProtag » Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:56 am

I believe in the maxim that you can't time the market, and am invested accordingly.

However, I also believe in basic economics of supply and demand. As we hit ATHs, people will take profits, increasing supply, and reducing price. Maybe this is an oversimplification, but it's almost impossible not to believe a pullback is coming in the short term.

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 8701
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by nedsaid » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:30 am

I don't know. Nobody rings a bell before the market is ready to crash. Pretty much, just about anything the market does surprises me. When it goes up, I am surprised. When it goes down, I am surprised. I have expressed my opinions about the direction of interest rates, and alas my record as an interest rate forecaster is not very good. No one would hire me as a political consultant, as developments there catch me by surprise. My record as an economic forecaster is pretty uneven.

I think of Elaine Garzarelli, who successfully predicted the 1987 stock market crash. Since then, she has been wrong about almost everything. Bob Brinker put a "sell" on the stock market in early 2000 but followed up with his disastrous QQQ call. Howard Ruff predicts doom that never seems to happen. Ravi Batra's second Great Depression never arrived. So don't put too much faith in these. An informed guess is better than an uninformed guess but not by as much as you would think.
A fool and his money are good for business.

User avatar
White Coat Investor
Posts: 12846
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:11 pm
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by White Coat Investor » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:33 am

Jacky817 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:54 pm
Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here.

If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that:
1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term
2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen

But just by looking at this very "unscientifically", it feels like the next crash/recession is coming within the next 2 years?
Firstly, the growth in this year has been very high. Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. According to this
http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data
It's been 9 years since the previous crash.

Just a hypothetical question. I'm not interested in hoarding cash now to "wait for the crash", still gonna invest regularly, albeit reluctantly now haha

Cheers,
Jack
Write down that prediction and check back in two years to see how accurate you were. I find predicting the future to be so tough that it isn't worth doing for me, but maybe you're better at it than I am.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

scone
Posts: 1388
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:46 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by scone » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:56 am

It's not about the markets so much, it's your time horizon. Short term money should be in safer investments, long term money can be risked in the stock markets. But there is always risk, of one sort or another, it's just part of life. You have some control of the risks you take, but there's a good bit of luck involved in your results, no matter what you decide.
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

rgs92
Posts: 1432
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 8:00 pm

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by rgs92 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:17 pm

Nice post scone. That says it all nice and succinctly. Best to you.

User avatar
Ged
Posts: 3291
Joined: Mon May 13, 2013 1:48 pm
Location: Roke

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Post by Ged » Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:08 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:21 am
How much of a decline is a "significant" decline?
Thanks.
j
This is what the NBER says:

http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.pdf

It seems to me that they are looking for places where the slope changes sign, rather than peak to trough distances.

Post Reply