Dow more than tripled in 8 years

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ERMD
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Dow more than tripled in 8 years

Post by ERMD » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:49 am

With "all time highs" becoming the norm these days, it was pretty staggering to see that the Dow was at about 6600 in 2009, and is now at 2300+ a mere 8 years later, about 3.5x! :greedy

I figured something like that would have been totally unprecedented.. And them, I realized that the Dow actually exceeded that rate (~3.6x growth) in the 8 year period from 1992 to 2000. And also approached 3x growth over several 8 year periods from the late 70s to late 80s. So I guess this is actually all just business as usual! :D
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slayed
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Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

Post by slayed » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:53 am

7 companies have been dropped from the Dow over those 8 years

DrGoogle2017
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Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:04 am

You’re missing a zero, it’s 23,000+ not 2300+.
Last edited by DrGoogle2017 on Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Pajamas
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Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

Post by Pajamas » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:10 am

It may have tripled over eight years, but over ten years, the DJIA is up only 70%. You can cherry-pick timeframes to prove whatever you want. :beer

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nisiprius
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Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

Post by nisiprius » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:22 am

All of the commentary about how well the stock market has done "since 2009" really should take into account the fact that it had fallen down a well, nearly half of that gain was just climbing out.

The great bull market of 1995-2000 was not climbing out of a well. The bull market followed a period of steady growth (at least it looks steady in this super-compressed semilog view!) It was above the trend that had preceded it. And starting from the already-established high, it grew by an additional factor of 3.5X that high.

Following 2008, the S&P 500 tanked and it took roughly until 2012 to get back to even, or to get back onto the track established by the past.

From the previous high, it has only grown by a factor of 2.3X.

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Slothmeister
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Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

Post by Slothmeister » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:31 am

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:22 am
All of the commentary about how well the stock market has done "since 2009" really should take into account the fact that it had fallen down a well, nearly half of that gain was just climbing out.

The great bull market of 1995-2000 was not climbing out of a well. The bull market followed a period of steady growth (at least it looks steady in this super-compressed semilog view!) It was above the trend that had preceded it. And starting from the already-established high, it grew by an additional factor of 3.5X that high.

Following 2008, the S&P 500 tanked and it took roughly until 2012 to get back to even, or to get back onto the track established by the past.

From the previous high, it has only grown by a factor of 2.3X.
Good point and graphic about about how half of the latest rise was about just climbing out from a crash.

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TD2626
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Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

Post by TD2626 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:34 am

Investing in stocks involves the potential for staggering losses on the order of 90% or more in Great Depression like scenarios. This could happen at any time and there is in my opinion known reliable, reasonable way to avoid stock market crashes other than investing in bonds and cash.

However, it also involves the potential for staggering gains like the ones mentioned in this thread. The largest gains, though, come over 3+ decades of investment. 30 years ago, the dow was at 2300, not 23,000. These are 10x gains. If you include reinvestment of dividends and assume an investor invests between ages 20 and 90 (70 years), gains could be 100 or 1000x. This, though, requires the fortitude, guts, and wherewithal to stay invested for decade after decade, through good times and bad.

An interesting calculator:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

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