Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

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BogleMelon
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Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by BogleMelon » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:47 am

For me, this article is a reminder that no one can really predict the future consistently.. Enjoy!
At the start of 2017, I compiled a list of predictions that gurus had made for the upcoming year, along with some items that I hear frequently from investors, for a sort of consensus on the year’s “sure things.” I’ve kept track of these sure things with a review at the end of each quarter.

With the turn of the calendar, our third quarter review of 2017’s list is due. As is my practice, I’ll give a score of +1 for a forecast that came true, a score of -1 for one that was wrong, and a 0 for one that was basically a tie.
http://www.etf.com/sections/features-an ... small-caps
Excuse my English, it is my second language! | | "One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

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CaliJim
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by CaliJim » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:22 pm

Good stuff. Thanks for posting the link.

"However, despite the prediction that interest rates would rise having actually come to pass, through June 30, 2017, the Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV) returned 7.8% "

Who knew! Should have gone long. Dang. :twisted:
-calijim- | | For more info, click this

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nisiprius
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by nisiprius » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:38 pm

I love his "sure things" articles.

It is so difficult not to be sucked in when "everybody" is sure about something. It's really important to remember just how often these broad consensus, strong conviction predictions turn out to be completely wrong.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Sandtrap
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by Sandtrap » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:45 pm

Outstanding!
Thanks Larry :D

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TD2626
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by TD2626 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:00 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:38 pm
I love his "sure things" articles.

It is so difficult not to be sucked in when "everybody" is sure about something. It's really important to remember just how often these broad consensus, strong conviction predictions turn out to be completely wrong.
I agree - these articles are helpful to show people that in general, nobody - not even some supposed expert - can accurately predict where markets are headed. Attempts to do so are pure speculation. The predictions of "gurus" are mere noise.

carolinaman
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by carolinaman » Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:15 am

We would be much closer to a "sure thing" if we invested (bet) opposite of these gurus predictions. At a success rate of 25%, the opposite position has won 75% of time. Pretty good odds.

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FiveK
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by FiveK » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:23 pm

Appears the article is in a new place: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In | ETF.com.

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:28 pm

FiveK wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:23 pm
Appears the article is in a new place: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In | ETF.com.
Bogleheads:

I was once a market-timer and actually wrote a market-timing newsletter. Two of the worst mistakes I ever made.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

JBTX
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Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

Post by JBTX » Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:15 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:28 pm
FiveK wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:23 pm
Appears the article is in a new place: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In | ETF.com.
Bogleheads:

I was once a market-timer and actually wrote a market-timing newsletter. Two of the worst mistakes I ever made.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Years ago, probably early 90's, I received a subscription to "Mutual Fund Forecaster" out of Boca Raton FL, I think. It was useful because it would give mutual funds, returns, etc, back before you could get that stuff on the web. They had different models and forecasting. I'd read it but never follow the strategies.

For their long term market timing models, they were almost always 50% cash based upon valuations, which they believed were too high. This was probably 5 years before Greenspan and his ill fated "irrational exuberance" call. This was in the early 90's. Obviously that strategy did not turn out well at all.

They also had a timing system where they would recommend going all in and all out based upon the history of various trading days. I never followed that either, but that one was more interesting. Typically this lagged the market a bit, but the overall risk was far lower because they were out of the market more often than not. I could have been luck. Or like other things there may have been some merit, but legit strategies that historically work evenually break down too.

I had enough brainwashing from finance classes in undergrad and grad school to buy into the efficient market hypothesis (Makiel, Fama, etc) and ignore those reading financial tea leaves.

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