Current Bull Market could last years

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KlangFool
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by KlangFool » Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:04 pm

McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:58 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:11 am
McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:04 am
fundseeker wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 am
McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.
Just curious, but are you in your 20s, 50s, or what? I'd hate for some new, say older Boglehead to read your post and follow your lead into a serious mistake.
Early 40s. It's just my opinion that stocks are going to outperform bonds over the next few years. Everyone is free to set their own allocation according to their own beliefs and risk appetite.
McGilicutty,

Just for clarification.

A) When you meant next few years, you meant the next 5 years or a shorter duration?

B) Does this mean at some point after the next few years, you will not be 100/0? Aka, the bond will do better than stock?

KlangFool
As to (A), I'm thinking in 3 to 5 years the Fed will have normalized interest rates. During that time, I expect bonds to do poorly and stocks to do well. However, it's really not saying much to expect stocks to outperform bonds as that is what usually happens.

As to (B), yes, I plan to move some money into bonds once the BND ETF (Vanguard Total Bond) yields 4.5% (currently yielding about 2.5%). I have no idea if bonds will outperform stocks at that time, but at least bonds will be competitive.
Thanks.

KlangFool

McGilicutty
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by McGilicutty » Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:08 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:50 pm
One of the things that concerns me is that investors seem to be turning more and more optimistic. As a stock investor, you want to see high levels of pessimism. This is counter-intuitive, but pretty much when everyone becomes optimistic, the market runs out of new buyers to propel the markets even higher. Where do the new buyers come from? They come from pessimists turning into optimists. Bull markets end when the last pessimist throws in the towel and covers his shorts, or throws his cash wad into the market, or both.
You sound pessimistic that the bull market will continue. :wink:

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sergeant
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by sergeant » Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:23 pm

prettybogle wrote:
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
Why do you care? Your crypto currency purchase will certainly make you rich beyond your dreams. :D
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nedsaid
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by nedsaid » Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:28 pm

McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:08 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:50 pm
One of the things that concerns me is that investors seem to be turning more and more optimistic. As a stock investor, you want to see high levels of pessimism. This is counter-intuitive, but pretty much when everyone becomes optimistic, the market runs out of new buyers to propel the markets even higher. Where do the new buyers come from? They come from pessimists turning into optimists. Bull markets end when the last pessimist throws in the towel and covers his shorts, or throws his cash wad into the market, or both.
You sound pessimistic that the bull market will continue. :wink:
Just keep watching. There definitely is more optimism out there but there still is not the euphoria of the late 1990's. About all I would advise at this point is that if you have not rebalanced your portfolio, this might be a good time to do it. Other than that, this is not actionable. If you feel a need to "panic" and take some chips off the table, better to "panic" at all time highs rather than after a crash.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by nedsaid » Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:33 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:50 pm
One of the things that concerns me is that investors seem to be turning more and more optimistic. As a stock investor, you want to see high levels of pessimism. This is counter-intuitive, but pretty much when everyone becomes optimistic, the market runs out of new buyers to propel the markets even higher. Where do the new buyers come from? They come from pessimists turning into optimists. Bull markets end when the last pessimist throws in the towel and covers his shorts, or throws his cash wad into the market, or both.
I have three friends who have been out of the market since March 2016 (after the recovery from the last correction) and waiting for the next correction. I told them that, after two of them enter the market, it is the time for me to get out.
Well, I would not make that a hard and fast rule. Not a good idea to act on what fickle and fearful investors decide to do. But it does give you an idea of sentiment. John Bogle gives good advice what to do when valuations get to be crazy, he might make an adjustment of maybe 20% of the total portfolio but he would never advise to get out of stocks altogether. So if you were 60% in stocks, if things got really crazy, you might go to 40% in stocks. That is about as much as I would do. We are no where near crazy now.

Just keep an eye on things.
A fool and his money are good for business.

flyingaway
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by flyingaway » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:42 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:33 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:50 pm
One of the things that concerns me is that investors seem to be turning more and more optimistic. As a stock investor, you want to see high levels of pessimism. This is counter-intuitive, but pretty much when everyone becomes optimistic, the market runs out of new buyers to propel the markets even higher. Where do the new buyers come from? They come from pessimists turning into optimists. Bull markets end when the last pessimist throws in the towel and covers his shorts, or throws his cash wad into the market, or both.
I have three friends who have been out of the market since March 2016 (after the recovery from the last correction) and waiting for the next correction. I told them that, after two of them enter the market, it is the time for me to get out.
Well, I would not make that a hard and fast rule. Not a good idea to act on what fickle and fearful investors decide to do. But it does give you an idea of sentiment. John Bogle gives good advice what to do when valuations get to be crazy, he might make an adjustment of maybe 20% of the total portfolio but he would never advise to get out of stocks altogether. So if you were 60% in stocks, if things got really crazy, you might go to 40% in stocks. That is about as much as I would do. We are no where near crazy now.

Just keep an eye on things.
I have made more than 1000 posts here. You can bet that I was not serious when talking about getting out of the market.

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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by RadAudit » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:46 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:28 pm
About all I would advise at this point is that if you have not rebalanced your portfolio, this might be a good time to do it.
I'm waiting for the stock % of the portfolio to go up to ~55% - about 1% more - where it'll hit one of the re-balance bands per my IPS.

Thanks for the reminder.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course.

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nedsaid
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by nedsaid » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:00 pm

RadAudit wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:46 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:28 pm
About all I would advise at this point is that if you have not rebalanced your portfolio, this might be a good time to do it.
I'm waiting for the stock % of the portfolio to go up to ~55% - about 1% more - where it'll hit one of the re-balance bands per my IPS.

Thanks for the reminder.
If the market is up from here, I will do yet another round of mild rebalancing from stocks to bonds. Hate to do it, but at age 58 I can't let my stock allocation run away from me here. I haven't even seriously started de-risking the portfolio yet.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by nedsaid » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:00 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:42 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:33 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:50 pm
One of the things that concerns me is that investors seem to be turning more and more optimistic. As a stock investor, you want to see high levels of pessimism. This is counter-intuitive, but pretty much when everyone becomes optimistic, the market runs out of new buyers to propel the markets even higher. Where do the new buyers come from? They come from pessimists turning into optimists. Bull markets end when the last pessimist throws in the towel and covers his shorts, or throws his cash wad into the market, or both.
I have three friends who have been out of the market since March 2016 (after the recovery from the last correction) and waiting for the next correction. I told them that, after two of them enter the market, it is the time for me to get out.
Well, I would not make that a hard and fast rule. Not a good idea to act on what fickle and fearful investors decide to do. But it does give you an idea of sentiment. John Bogle gives good advice what to do when valuations get to be crazy, he might make an adjustment of maybe 20% of the total portfolio but he would never advise to get out of stocks altogether. So if you were 60% in stocks, if things got really crazy, you might go to 40% in stocks. That is about as much as I would do. We are no where near crazy now.

Just keep an eye on things.
I have made more than 1000 posts here. You can bet that I was not serious when talking about getting out of the market.
I know what you are saying. Thanks for clarifying your remarks.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Ged
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Ged » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:16 pm

Sounds like the first pebble of irrational exuberance dropping.

It may last for years, but it will end.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by TheTimeLord » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:42 pm

if markets climb a wall of worry this thread indicates the U.S. Bull market has a ways to run.
Run, You Clever Boy!

prettybogle
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by prettybogle » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:34 pm

TareNeko wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:24 am
Prettybogle, I have read few of your posts (including the desire to buy expensive house, and investing in Tesla), I really think you need to get more informed about finance and investing. I hope you won't take this the wrong way, but based on your posts, you lack even the simplest understanding of finances. This will only lead to your financial ruin. So please, check-out the https://www.bogleheads.org/RecommendedReading.php. It is great that you found bogleheads forum, but you need to mature your approach to finances.
prettybogle wrote:
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
TareNeko, you are right - I absolutely need to learn a whole lot about finance and investing. I have started reading with the help of DH. Coming back to my intent in starting this thread - before reading this article, I have been contemplating what are the negative forces, fundamental issues that could bring market down. I do not see any significant and this article adds logical weight to my thoughts.

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TD2626
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by TD2626 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:19 pm

Apparently few actually read the OP's article. I went and read it.

It turns out that although the focus is on stocks, it discusses also discusses like high yield bonds.

What do you think that the implications are of the first graph in the article on an investor considering a long-term 5 or 10% allocation to VWEHX? This area is often said to be inefficient from a risk-return perspective --- is this evidence for that theory?

(Also, I feel that these sorts of articles are clickbait and fairly low quality. I focus on academic literature primarily. Also, I do not believe there is sufficient evidence that anyone is able to reliably predict the markets - the Efficient Market Hypothesis presumes that stocks are priced efficiently. No one knows what the future holds - and thus people need a long-term allocation and need to have the courage to hold it through ups and downs.)

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Watty
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Watty » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:32 pm

FedGuy wrote:
Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:47 pm
This is exactly the kind of overconfident post that usually appears right before a recession hits.
The problem is that if you look back over recent posts and Market Watch articles you will be sure to find lots of posts and articles that say just the opposite. Eventually by random chance one of them will be right.

Writers have been known to put out predictions in the hopes that they will be right just by chance. After a big market move there will be lots of press about people that correctly predicted the move.

Realistically it means nothing.
Last edited by Watty on Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Portfolio7
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:47 pm

The market tends to confound the best of investors, so I don't place big bets. I try to keep my bets limited, higher probability, lower risk. Saying that hundred of years of history are now definitively moot, is high risk.

As for the article, it makes an interesting point, but the substantiation feels diaphanously thin. Don't see any correlation figures, or any history to support the contention that these types of capital flows always yield long bull markets. I find Marketwatch articles mostly useful as a measure of hysteria in the market. As a learning tool, best avoided. Besides Bogleheads, I like A Wealth of Common Sense, and Abnormal Returns (esp the Wed edition on personal investing).

I think there are a lot of reasons to expect a long stable bull for the next decade or so, with hills and valleys along the way; I am very optimistic. I also know that the market takes delight in making fools of us all, and I set my risk levels first.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

pollifax
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by pollifax » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:47 am

After reading the article in the OP, I actually feel more uneasy about equities. Ultimately, it appears from the article that the bull market over the past 10 years or so has been a product mostly of corporate buybacks. I don't know much about this topic, but isn't this a form of price manipulation?

prettybogle
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by prettybogle » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:42 pm

Wow looking at markets today it sure looks like we are all living in endless euphoria :D :beer

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:48 pm

pollifax wrote:
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:47 am
After reading the article in the OP, I actually feel more uneasy about equities. Ultimately, it appears from the article that the bull market over the past 10 years or so has been a product mostly of corporate buybacks. I don't know much about this topic, but isn't this a form of price manipulation?
No imho, because they aren't changing the overall valuation of the company, they are increasing the ownership percentage of ownership represented by each share thus increasing its value because it represents a larger ownership stake. Or put another way they are buying out some owners of the business thus the remaining owners now have a greater percentage.
Run, You Clever Boy!

pollifax
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by pollifax » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:52 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:48 pm
pollifax wrote:
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:47 am
After reading the article in the OP, I actually feel more uneasy about equities. Ultimately, it appears from the article that the bull market over the past 10 years or so has been a product mostly of corporate buybacks. I don't know much about this topic, but isn't this a form of price manipulation?
No imho, because they aren't changing the overall valuation of the company, they are increasing the ownership percentage of ownership represented by each share thus increasing its value because it represents a larger ownership stake. Or put another way they are buying out some owners of the business thus the remaining owners now have a greater percentage.

Thank you! This makes some sense to me, but wouldn't the greater percentage of ownership also be diluted in a way? For example, the company needs to find the funds somewhere to buyback the shares, so they either use cash on hand or sell bonds (debt). Therefore, the remaining shareholders have a bigger piece of ownership, but of a lesser value because overall equity in the company is decreased? Forgive me for my ignorance here. Trying to learn!

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bligh
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by bligh » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:57 pm

pollifax wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:52 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:48 pm
pollifax wrote:
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:47 am
After reading the article in the OP, I actually feel more uneasy about equities. Ultimately, it appears from the article that the bull market over the past 10 years or so has been a product mostly of corporate buybacks. I don't know much about this topic, but isn't this a form of price manipulation?
No imho, because they aren't changing the overall valuation of the company, they are increasing the ownership percentage of ownership represented by each share thus increasing its value because it represents a larger ownership stake. Or put another way they are buying out some owners of the business thus the remaining owners now have a greater percentage.

Thank you! This makes some sense to me, but wouldn't the greater percentage of ownership also be diluted in a way? For example, the company needs to find the funds somewhere to buyback the shares, so they either use cash on hand or sell bonds (debt). Therefore, the remaining shareholders have a bigger piece of ownership, but of a lesser value because overall equity in the company is decreased? Forgive me for my ignorance here. Trying to learn!
In the very short term, they do cancel out. But if the companies' revenue and profitability remain constant, Earnings per share goes up. ie. Each share now earns you a larger share of the profit going forward. So the PE (Price to Earnings) ratio shifts.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:00 pm

pollifax wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:52 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:48 pm
pollifax wrote:
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:47 am
After reading the article in the OP, I actually feel more uneasy about equities. Ultimately, it appears from the article that the bull market over the past 10 years or so has been a product mostly of corporate buybacks. I don't know much about this topic, but isn't this a form of price manipulation?
No imho, because they aren't changing the overall valuation of the company, they are increasing the ownership percentage of ownership represented by each share thus increasing its value because it represents a larger ownership stake. Or put another way they are buying out some owners of the business thus the remaining owners now have a greater percentage.

Thank you! This makes some sense to me, but wouldn't the greater percentage of ownership also be diluted in a way? For example, the company needs to find the funds somewhere to buyback the shares, so they either use cash on hand or sell bonds (debt). Therefore, the remaining shareholders have a bigger piece of ownership, but of a lesser value because overall equity in the company is decreased? Forgive me for my ignorance here. Trying to learn!
True, but companies tend to be valued more on their potential future earning potential than current assets provided they have a sound balance sheet. And with interest rates as low as they have been, I assume the logic is the earning potential far outweighs the interest paid. I think Apple borrowed money at an incredibly low rate to buy shares back even though they have hundreds of billions in cash because much of it is overseas and if they brought it back into the U.S. they would have to pay taxes where as they could sell their bonds to people all over the world at an incredibly low rate of interest because no one saw any realistic risk of default.
By borrowing Apple gets cash to pay dividends and buy back shares of stock without hauling its billions stored overseas back to the U.S., which could trigger a tax event. Investors applauded the move because they continue to be eager for the company to look for ways to get its cash back to them. Shares of Apple rose $2.11, or 2.3%, to $96.08. The company is also taking advantage of a recent rally in bonds, which was triggered by global uncertainty, that results in lower interest rates.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ma ... /80451180/
Run, You Clever Boy!

pollifax
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by pollifax » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:05 pm

OK, so this is perhaps why there might be a correction if interest rates keep going up? After a certain point, it won't become profitable for companies to continue to sell bonds to do their buybacks and they will start selling shares to repay debt? Thereby triggering an episode of panic selling? Just musing here.

Thanks for the help.

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Toons
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Toons » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:10 pm

mickeyd wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:29 am
Staythecourse. Ignorethewhitenouse. Gobacktosleep.

Goodnight.

LOL :sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:13 pm

pollifax wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:05 pm
OK, so this is perhaps why there might be a correction if interest rates keep going up? After a certain point, it won't become profitable for companies to continue to sell bonds to do their buybacks and they will start selling shares to repay debt? Thereby triggering an episode of panic selling? Just musing here.

Thanks for the help.
Their bonds are fixed rate so rising rate will just effect profitability of issuing new debt and additional share buybacks, but I don't see many of them reissuing shares and diluting shareholder ownership. Most of these companies can easily cover this debt out of free cashflow.
Run, You Clever Boy!

pollifax
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by pollifax » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:19 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:13 pm
pollifax wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:05 pm
OK, so this is perhaps why there might be a correction if interest rates keep going up? After a certain point, it won't become profitable for companies to continue to sell bonds to do their buybacks and they will start selling shares to repay debt? Thereby triggering an episode of panic selling? Just musing here.

Thanks for the help.
Their bonds are fixed rate so rising rate will just effect profitability of issuing new debt and additional share buybacks, but I don't see many of them reissuing shares and diluting shareholder ownership. Most of these companies can easily cover this debt out of free cashflow.
Interesting. Thanks, Doctor.

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knpstr
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by knpstr » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:20 pm

prettybogle wrote:
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'.
That's Warren Buffett's position.
Buffett 2014 Annual Letter wrote: Stock prices will always be far more volatile than cash-equivalent holdings. Over the long term, however,
currency-denominated instruments are riskier investments – far riskier investments – than widely-diversified stock
portfolios that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token fees and commissions. That
lesson has not customarily been taught in business schools, where volatility is almost universally used as a proxy for
risk. Though this pedagogic assumption makes for easy teaching, it is dead wrong: Volatility is far from
synonymous with risk. Popular formulas that equate the two terms lead students, investors and CEOs astray.
emphasis Buffett's
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

EddyB
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by EddyB » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:23 pm

CyclingDuo wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:42 am
Crisium wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:29 am
RAchip wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:22 am
What constitutes the end of a bull market exactly?
According to the article, a 20% decline.
Both 2011 and mid 2015-2016 saw that kind of negative decline "action". Yet, the media continues to ignore them and goes with the theme "this bull has been running since 2009".
How are you measuring those?

WhiteMaxima
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:36 pm

Though I am encouraging market timing, I will still take some profit and sit it aside.

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Taylor Larimore
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Stay the Course

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:40 pm

Current Bull Market could last years
Bogleheads:

Articles like this are designed to attract readers in order to sell advertisements. They should be called "investment pornography" and are meaningless to Bogleheads who make no attempt to forecast the stock and bond markets.
Stay the course. No matter what happens, stick to your program. I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you. -- John C. Bogle in Common Sense on Mutual Funds
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Toons
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Toons » Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:49 pm

When a trend continues for 8 years.
Some start to think it is "Normal" :shock:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:00 pm

EddyB wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:23 pm
CyclingDuo wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:42 am
Crisium wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:29 am
RAchip wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:22 am
What constitutes the end of a bull market exactly?
According to the article, a 20% decline.
Both 2011 and mid 2015-2016 saw that kind of negative decline "action". Yet, the media continues to ignore them and goes with the theme "this bull has been running since 2009".
How are you measuring those?
We watch tons of websites of the better market technicians. Joe Fahmy, Josh Brown, and Laszlo Birinyi being our favorite three.

https://www.joefahmy.com/2017/04/29/mar ... rmedbroker

2015-2016

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%8 ... et_selloff

2011

https://www.seeitmarket.com/common-char ... ons-13569/

The first chart is a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX) from 2011. It simply shows highlights that the stock market correction from top to bottom was -21.59%.

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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Stormbringer » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:45 pm

I don't know about years, but at least through the end of the year seems highly likely. I think a lot of investors are banking on a more favorable tax environment in 2018, so gains are going to tend to be deferred until then. That means there will be fewer sellers in the market than one would expect at these prices, making it easier for the market to continue to go up.
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe." - Albert Einstein

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abuss368
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by abuss368 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:24 pm

I have read many articles of the same recently. Financial noise and pornography!
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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abuss368
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by abuss368 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:25 pm

We have stayed the course with our asset allocation between stocks and bonds.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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abuss368
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by abuss368 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:26 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:00 pm
If the market is up from here, I will do yet another round of mild rebalancing from stocks to bonds. Hate to do it, but at age 58 I can't let my stock allocation run away from me here. I haven't even seriously started de-risking the portfolio yet.
Hi nedsaid -

You are a wise and disciplined investor.

Best.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

MrKnight
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by MrKnight » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:48 am

Bull markets usually end only after the economy has run hot for a while. Annualized the past 10 years have been modest. I don't see any reason for a recession until that changes.

CurlyDave
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by CurlyDave » Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:33 am

Where I live (rural Oregon) the economy has been even worse than "modest".

The average family is just now starting to see the end of the great recession.

There has been a huge disconnect between the stock market and the average standard of living. Not that I am complaining. Our standard has gone up with the market. But the workforce participation rate keeps going down.

I looked at the definition of U6 the other day and it does not capture what I see around me. Lots of not only discouraged workers, but "very discouraged workers". No jobs and not enough out there to even try looking for the past several years. Just starting to turn around.

Personally, I think the market has legs for a least a few more years.

MnD
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by MnD » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:42 pm

10-year annual average return for Total US Stock is 7.7% and for Total International Stock is 1.3%.
Ignoring any rebalancing benefits a 50:50 equity investor got 4.5% before inflation and taxes.
Not exactly a decade of "stocks on fire".
20-year returns are equally unexciting although a little more balanced between US and ex-US.

We have been investing for 31 years and the joint life expectancy table says at least one of us will be in the game for another 35 years if we are average. About all you can assume is that stocks generally go up more than most other investments but they do bounce around a lot over the short term.

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Tycoon
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Tycoon » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:56 pm

"Current Bull Market could last years"

Good! I can finally attain true tycoon status. I'm off to the yaht yacht store. And hire a copy editor.
...I might be just beginning | I might be near the end. Enya | | C'est la vie

prettybogle
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by prettybogle » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:42 am

Good to see, basicaly classic BH, replies :D . I am also noticing several threads popping up in our great forum and the theme is very similar - markets at dangerously high levels so either they will crash down or this is the start of permanent prosperity. While we will never know the timing of next bull/bear market, I strongly believe we should follow “safe bucket and risk bucket” approach. Money you think is for future plans or market timings like buy when blood on the streets etc should be in safe bucket. Money you expect to not need forever should be in risk bucket. If market does tank, simply move some from safe bucket to risk bucket.

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