Current Bull Market could last years

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prettybogle
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Current Bull Market could last years

Post by prettybogle » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm

Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?

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Sandtrap
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Sandtrap » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:47 pm

"Current Bull Market could last years. . . . . . "

maybe. . . .
perhaps with small or very large dips and plunges along the way :shock: :shock:

stay the course. . . ignore the noise. :D
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KlangFool
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by KlangFool » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:48 pm

prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
prettybogle,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ted_States

There is at least one US recession every 10 years since 1836. The last US recession was 2007/2009. So, do you want to bet against this historical record? Haven't we heard this line before? "This time will be different", right before last recession?

<< George Santayana
"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it." The quote is most likely due to George Santayana, and in its original form it read, 'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.' >>

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whodidntante
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by whodidntante » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:00 pm

This post is terrifying. Are you celebrating Halloween early?

FedGuy
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by FedGuy » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:47 pm

This is exactly the kind of overconfident post that usually appears right before a recession hits.

hightower
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by hightower » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:57 pm

prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
Or it could last days. No one has a flipping clue. Iโ€™m sticking to my asset allocation as always.

MiddleOfTheRoad
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by MiddleOfTheRoad » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:58 pm

FedGuy wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:47 pm
This is exactly the kind of overconfident post that usually appears right before a recession hits.
Was thinking exactly the same! Getting my cash ready for a downturn (j/k)

Dominic
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Dominic » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:46 pm

It'll end when it ends.

Don't get overconfident but don't be afraid.

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peterinjapan
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by peterinjapan » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:21 am

I am slowly becoming more conservative, but only becuase I'm unhealthily overweight stocks (you could say 'addicted to' stocks and you wouldn't be wrong).

b.lock
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by b.lock » Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:17 am

No one knows. Predicting the stock market is way too complex for our little human brains. Maybe stocks will keep going up 10% per year for 10 years while during that time people were reading tea leaves and warning of a pending recession. We won't know if stocks or bonds or some new financial instrument is the safest bet until it's already happened.

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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by McGilicutty » Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am

I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.

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stemikger
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by stemikger » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:29 am

Stay the course, tune out the noise and listen to this guy instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

fundseeker
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by fundseeker » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 am

McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.
Just curious, but are you in your 20s, 50s, or what? I'd hate for some new, say older Boglehead to read your post and follow your lead into a serious mistake.

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nisiprius
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by nisiprius » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:54 am

If the bull market couldn't last years--if it was patent to most investors that it was unsustainable--it would already have crashed.

I know, that sounds like the joke about the economist seeing a $20 bill on the sidewalk and saying "it must be fake or else somebody would already have picked it up."

But my point is that at virtually every moment when the market is "rising"--that is to say, of course, going up and down irregularly with an upward trend discernible in hindsight--you will find large numbers of people arguing that it is not a bubble and that it could last years, and other people arguing that it is unsustainable and that it won't. The two classics are, of course, the remarks in 1929 by Irving Fisher, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau," and Roger Babson, "Sooner or later a crash is coming and it may be terrific."

The fact that people argue about whether X is sustainable, whether it's a bubble, etc. tells you only that there is a wide perception that X has done very well over the last few years. It is basically a group judgement that the stock market IS "up." It doesn't have any predictive power to speak of. Similarly, when there is a perception that the stock market "is down" or "has been going down" you will always find a split of opinion on whether the decline has ended or whether it is just "a dead cat bounce," "a classic value trap," etc.

Alan Greenspan, end of 1996: "Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?" If we interpret that--as many did at the time--to mean that there was, in fact, irrational exuberance, was he right, or wrong?

Glassman and Hassett, end of 1999: long article: "Stock Prices Are Still Far Too Low:"
Dire warnings from professionals have accompanied nearly every step of the Dow's rise from 777 on Aug. 12, 1982. Could it be that the model that Wall Street has been using to assess whether stocks are overvalued--a model based largely on historic price-earnings ratios--is deeply flawed? We think so. Investors are ignoring the old shibboleths and pricing companies like Gillette at a P/E of 64 or Microsoft at a P/E of 66. This reflects not their nuttiness but their sanity...

Contrary to Alan Greenspan's famous warning--made on Dec. 5, 1996, with the Dow at 6437--investors today are rationally exuberant. They are bidding up the prices of stocks because stocks are a great deal. Dow 10000 is just for starters. How high will the market go? We'll give you a hint: The title of our book, to be published this fall by Times Books, is "Dow 36,000."
Were they wrong, or right?
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tennisplyr
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by tennisplyr » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:19 am

We just don't know and everyone's circumstances are different. We do have choices to make.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

lostdog
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by lostdog » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:49 am

No idea. Stay invested, ignore the noise and stay the course.
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by dwickenh » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:51 am

stemikger wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:29 am
Stay the course, tune out the noise and listen to this guy instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI
+1 :sharebeer
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.โ€ | โ€” Warren Buffett

RAchip
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by RAchip » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:22 am

What constitutes the end of a bull market exactly?

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:29 am

prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
Joe Fahmy does a nice job in his weekly video series. This past weekend, the first video does a nice job of avoiding all the "noise". And the second video he did as an educational video of market tops is well worth watching.

https://www.joefahmy.com/2017/10/01/wee ... -hot-10117

https://www.joefahmy.com/2017/09/30/edu ... ps-crashes

Crisium
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by Crisium » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:29 am

RAchip wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:22 am
What constitutes the end of a bull market exactly?
According to the article, a 20% decline.

jebmke
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by jebmke » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:38 am

I ignore stuff like this when it comes to investing.

However, I have noticed a large uptick in unsold real estate (residential and commercial) around me. Two grocery chains have closed stores and the BJs that just opened a year ago is rumored to be considering closing. Also, the car dealerships around us are awash in cars and not very busy (we have been in shopping around for a replacement); still a lot of unsold 2017 inventory.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:42 am

Crisium wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:29 am
RAchip wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:22 am
What constitutes the end of a bull market exactly?
According to the article, a 20% decline.
Both 2011 and mid 2015-2016 saw that kind of negative decline "action". Yet, the media continues to ignore them and goes with the theme "this bull has been running since 2009".

SimplicityNow
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by SimplicityNow » Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:50 am

The author of the article doesn't know but the title of the article achieves his objective: getting you to read it.

Wiser minds then his also do not know.

This is no different then the daily reports of "why" the market has gone up or down that day. I always find it amusing that when the market opens up there are all these articles and stories as to the "why" it is heading up. These are usually replaced with other stories that explain definitively whey the market is heading down when stocks head south later that same afternoon.

No one has a working crystal ball that forecasts the future with any reliability. Some predictions will be correct just like a coin will sometimes land on heads if you flip it enough times. It doesn't mean you can predict what the next flip will be or when the next heads will appear.

My thoughts are if minds much wiser then mine cannot predict the future, what chance do I have?

If you are content that your asset allocation is good based on your individual circumstance then the very best advice would be to pay head to Jack Bogle.

Do nothing.

McGilicutty
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by McGilicutty » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:04 am

fundseeker wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 am
McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.
Just curious, but are you in your 20s, 50s, or what? I'd hate for some new, say older Boglehead to read your post and follow your lead into a serious mistake.
Early 40s. It's just my opinion that stocks are going to outperform bonds over the next few years. Everyone is free to set their own allocation according to their own beliefs and risk appetite.

KlangFool
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by KlangFool » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:11 am

McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:04 am
fundseeker wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 am
McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.
Just curious, but are you in your 20s, 50s, or what? I'd hate for some new, say older Boglehead to read your post and follow your lead into a serious mistake.
Early 40s. It's just my opinion that stocks are going to outperform bonds over the next few years. Everyone is free to set their own allocation according to their own beliefs and risk appetite.
McGilicutty,

Just for clarification.

A) When you meant next few years, you meant the next 5 years or a shorter duration?

B) Does this mean at some point after the next few years, you will not be 100/0? Aka, the bond will do better than stock?

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midareff
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by midareff » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:38 am

Dominic wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:46 pm
It'll end when it ends.

Don't get overconfident but don't be afraid.
seems to me the title of this thread is exactly the type of mentality that drove the NASDAQ to 5270 something before something else happened just before year 2000. It is tough times when the VG International Index has a much higher dividend than both the 5 and 10 year treasury.

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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by technovelist » Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:53 am

The title is much too modest. There is absolutely no doubt that the current bull market will last years.

That's because it already has lasted years.

Now if the statement were that it could last years starting from now, I could see why it said "could". :D
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

TareNeko
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by TareNeko » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:24 am

Prettybogle, I have read few of your posts (including the desire to buy expensive house, and investing in Tesla), I really think you need to get more informed about finance and investing. I hope you won't take this the wrong way, but based on your posts, you lack even the simplest understanding of finances. This will only lead to your financial ruin. So please, check-out the https://www.bogleheads.org/RecommendedReading.php. It is great that you found bogleheads forum, but you need to mature your approach to finances.
prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?

PFInterest
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by PFInterest » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:25 am

It's already the 3rd longest. It could break the record. It could not. No one knows nothing.

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HomerJ
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by HomerJ » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:29 am

jebmke wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:38 am
I ignore stuff like this when it comes to investing.

However, I have noticed a large uptick in unsold real estate (residential and commercial) around me. Two grocery chains have closed stores and the BJs that just opened a year ago is rumored to be considering closing. Also, the car dealerships around us are awash in cars and not very busy (we have been in shopping around for a replacement); still a lot of unsold 2017 inventory.
Interesting. Where do you live?

We just bought a car, and the place was packed. Also, we've seen multiple new stores open. There's a whole new shopping plaza near our house with 4 new restaurants, a grocery store, and a bunch of little shops. Every time we go out to eat the places are full.

Nearly every place I walk into has a sign saying "Now Hiring" (Granted, these are low-paying retail jobs that have signs).

We're in Kansas City for a data point.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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HomerJ
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by HomerJ » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:33 am

McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:04 am
fundseeker wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 am
McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.
Just curious, but are you in your 20s, 50s, or what? I'd hate for some new, say older Boglehead to read your post and follow your lead into a serious mistake.
Early 40s. It's just my opinion that stocks are going to outperform bonds over the next few years. Everyone is free to set their own allocation according to their own beliefs and risk appetite.
I would suggest that a better way to make money would be to sell your crystal ball for $1 billion dollars. :)

Just kidding. But no one knows what's going to happen next. I think going 100% into the asset class that has done well the past 5 years, and completely avoiding the asset class that has done poorly the past 5 years is a bad way to set an Asset Allocation.

But you're young enough to weather a 50% stock market crash if it happens tomorrow. Because it could, you know.

flyingaway
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by flyingaway » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:33 am

Not very helpful. I want to know how many more days the current bull market will last.

jebmke
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by jebmke » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:35 am

HomerJ wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:29 am
jebmke wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:38 am
I ignore stuff like this when it comes to investing.

However, I have noticed a large uptick in unsold real estate (residential and commercial) around me. Two grocery chains have closed stores and the BJs that just opened a year ago is rumored to be considering closing. Also, the car dealerships around us are awash in cars and not very busy (we have been in shopping around for a replacement); still a lot of unsold 2017 inventory.
Interesting. Where do you live?

We just bought a car, and the place was packed. Also, we've seen multiple new stores open. There's a whole new shopping plaza near our house with 4 new restaurants, a grocery store, and a bunch of little shops. Every time we go out to eat the places are full.

Nearly every place I walk into has a sign saying "Now Hiring" (Granted, these are low-paying retail jobs that have signs).
I live in Maryland. Small town. Businesses are still hiring here too although there is a lot of talk about some of the hospitals in the area closing down. One has announced already and another has been fighting local resistance - I think they (locals) are fighting a losing battle on the hospital front. This is a semi-rural area.

Not sure what is going on with respect to autos. Dealers have a lot of inventory and the television ads are still promoting special sales events on 2017 models. Normally by now they would be rolling with the 2018 models.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:37 am

flyingaway wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:33 am
Not very helpful. I want to know how many more days the current bull market will last.
I don't care how many more days the current bull market will last. When the drop comes, I'll rebalance and go on with life.
Anybody know why there's a 20-pound frozen turkey up in the light grid?

KarenC
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by KarenC » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:45 am

Iโ€™m reminded of this 1997 Wired article The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 - 2020:
But there's a new, very different meme, a radically optimistic meme: We are watching the beginnings of a global economic boom on a scale never experienced before. We have entered a period of sustained growth that could eventually double the world's economy every dozen years and bring increasing prosperity for - quite literally - billions of people on the planet. We are riding the early waves of a 25-year run of a greatly expanding economy that will do much to solve seemingly intractable problems like poverty and to ease tensions throughout the world. And we'll do it without blowing the lid off the environment.
"How much you know is less important than how clearly you understand where the borders of your ignorance begin." โ€” Jason Zweig

flyingaway
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by flyingaway » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:47 am

oldcomputerguy wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:37 am
flyingaway wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:33 am
Not very helpful. I want to know how many more days the current bull market will last.
I don't care how many more days the current bull market will last. When the drop comes, I'll rebalance and go on with life.
To tell you a secret, I want to sell before the crash, and buy back after.

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:03 am

flyingaway wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:47 am
oldcomputerguy wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:37 am
flyingaway wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:33 am
Not very helpful. I want to know how many more days the current bull market will last.
I don't care how many more days the current bull market will last. When the drop comes, I'll rebalance and go on with life.
To tell you a secret, I want to sell before the crash, and buy back after.
I understand. It's certainly a desirable outcome. Let us know how it comes out.
Anybody know why there's a 20-pound frozen turkey up in the light grid?

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telemark
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by telemark » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:21 am

The market will crash on Odstreth.

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Taylor Larimore
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Stock and bond risk

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:28 am

McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now.
McGilicutty:

Nothing is certain. Nevertheless, stocks are much more risky (chance of loss) than high-quality bonds.

In the last bear market (2008) Vanguard S&P 500 fund plunged -37%; Vanguard Total Bond Market gained +5%.

Timing and Selection Within the Bond Market. A Look at the Record

Best wishes.
Taylor
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mickeyd
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by mickeyd » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:29 am

Staythecourse. Ignorethewhitenouse. Gobacktosleep.

Goodnight.
Part-Owner of Texas | | โ€œThe CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will workโ€ฆ Yes, it is that simple.โ€ John C. Bogle

avalpert
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Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by avalpert » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:14 pm

flyingaway wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:47 am
oldcomputerguy wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:37 am
flyingaway wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:33 am
Not very helpful. I want to know how many more days the current bull market will last.
I don't care how many more days the current bull market will last. When the drop comes, I'll rebalance and go on with life.
To tell you a secret, I want to sell before the crash, and buy back after.
Really? I want to massively short the market before the crash and go long on as much leverage as I can get after - I mean if I can guess when before and after actually are going to happen why wouldn't I take full advantage of it?

thangngo
Posts: 302
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by thangngo » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:20 pm

prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
When you see articles like this popping up, a correction or market crash is near. :beer

Will I do anything? well I keep doing my things: continue to make money and build wealth, make sure investment is stay true with my goals and investment plan, and enjoy other things in life.
Last edited by thangngo on Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

avalpert
Posts: 5920
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by avalpert » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:23 pm

thangngo wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:20 pm
prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
When you see articles like this popping up, a correction or market crash is near. :beer
Nope, that thinking is no more sound than the article itself.

For every one of these I can show you an article explaining why a crash is imminent - they are both wrong even if one turns out to rightly 'predict' the ultimate outcome.

thangngo
Posts: 302
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by thangngo » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:25 pm

avalpert wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:23 pm
thangngo wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:20 pm
prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
When you see articles like this popping up, a correction or market crash is near. :beer
Nope, that thinking is no more sound than the article itself.

For every one of these I can show you an article explaining why a crash is imminent - they are both wrong even if one turns out to rightly 'predict' the ultimate outcome.
Thanks to those articles, people believe that they will never lose money and keep buying more stocks due to pure speculative. This leads to market crash.

avalpert
Posts: 5920
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by avalpert » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:34 pm

thangngo wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:25 pm
avalpert wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:23 pm
thangngo wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:20 pm
prettybogle wrote: โ†‘
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Just read an article that details pretty logical reasons why this bull market can last years and years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo

I am wondering if it is time to rewrite all the finance literature to categorically state that 'stocks are least risky among cash, bonds and stocks'. Are y'all increasing your stocks % allocation?
When you see articles like this popping up, a correction or market crash is near. :beer
Nope, that thinking is no more sound than the article itself.

For every one of these I can show you an article explaining why a crash is imminent - they are both wrong even if one turns out to rightly 'predict' the ultimate outcome.
Thanks to those articles, people believe that they will never lose money and keep buying more stocks due to pure speculative. This leads to market crash.
But then thanks to articles like this one people believe they will lose money in the near future and sell their stocks due to pure speculation... thus offsetting the magical power of the other article and the market continues on its own chaotic course.

eleighj
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:16 am

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by eleighj » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:35 pm

mickeyd wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:29 am
Staythecourse. Ignorethewhitenouse. Gobacktosleep.

Goodnight.
Ditto. Nothing more to be said! :happy
Edward

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 8505
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by nedsaid » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:50 pm

One of the things that concerns me is that investors seem to be turning more and more optimistic. As a stock investor, you want to see high levels of pessimism. This is counter-intuitive, but pretty much when everyone becomes optimistic, the market runs out of new buyers to propel the markets even higher. Where do the new buyers come from? They come from pessimists turning into optimists. Bull markets end when the last pessimist throws in the towel and covers his shorts, or throws his cash wad into the market, or both.
A fool and his money are good for business.

flyingaway
Posts: 1184
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:19 am

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by flyingaway » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:56 pm

nedsaid wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:50 pm
One of the things that concerns me is that investors seem to be turning more and more optimistic. As a stock investor, you want to see high levels of pessimism. This is counter-intuitive, but pretty much when everyone becomes optimistic, the market runs out of new buyers to propel the markets even higher. Where do the new buyers come from? They come from pessimists turning into optimists. Bull markets end when the last pessimist throws in the towel and covers his shorts, or throws his cash wad into the market, or both.
I have three friends who have been out of the market since March 2016 (after the recovery from the last correction) and waiting for the next correction. I told them that, after two of them enter the market, it is the time for me to get out.

McGilicutty
Posts: 121
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:24 pm

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by McGilicutty » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:58 pm

KlangFool wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:11 am
McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:04 am
fundseeker wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 am
McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.
Just curious, but are you in your 20s, 50s, or what? I'd hate for some new, say older Boglehead to read your post and follow your lead into a serious mistake.
Early 40s. It's just my opinion that stocks are going to outperform bonds over the next few years. Everyone is free to set their own allocation according to their own beliefs and risk appetite.
McGilicutty,

Just for clarification.

A) When you meant next few years, you meant the next 5 years or a shorter duration?

B) Does this mean at some point after the next few years, you will not be 100/0? Aka, the bond will do better than stock?

KlangFool
As to (A), I'm thinking in 3 to 5 years the Fed will have normalized interest rates. During that time, I expect bonds to do poorly and stocks to do well. However, it's really not saying much to expect stocks to outperform bonds as that is what usually happens.

As to (B), yes, I plan to move some money into bonds once the BND ETF (Vanguard Total Bond) yields 4.5% (currently yielding about 2.5%). I have no idea if bonds will outperform stocks at that time, but at least bonds will be competitive.

flyingaway
Posts: 1184
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:19 am

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Post by flyingaway » Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:04 pm

McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:58 pm
KlangFool wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:11 am
McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:04 am
fundseeker wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:37 am
McGilicutty wrote: โ†‘
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:50 am
I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only returned 10.5% over the last 5 years.

I plan to get into bonds after the Fed is done normalizing rates; so I will probably be close to 100% stocks for the next few years.
Just curious, but are you in your 20s, 50s, or what? I'd hate for some new, say older Boglehead to read your post and follow your lead into a serious mistake.
Early 40s. It's just my opinion that stocks are going to outperform bonds over the next few years. Everyone is free to set their own allocation according to their own beliefs and risk appetite.
McGilicutty,

Just for clarification.

A) When you meant next few years, you meant the next 5 years or a shorter duration?

B) Does this mean at some point after the next few years, you will not be 100/0? Aka, the bond will do better than stock?

KlangFool
As to (A), I'm thinking in 3 to 5 years the Fed will have normalized interest rates. During that time, I expect bonds to do poorly and stocks to do well. However, it's really not saying much to expect stocks to outperform bonds as that is what usually happens.

As to (B), yes, I plan to move some money into bonds once the BND ETF (Vanguard Total Bond) yields 4.5% (currently yielding about 2.5%). I have no idea if bonds will outperform stocks at that time, but at least bonds will be competitive.
I also want to wait for the bond interest to be above 3.5% to buy bond. The problem is, the stock market might have already crashed before that.

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