http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-1 ... dead-ahead
One snippet that summarizes the main point:
But I found this discussion more interesting:On historical relationships this would imply a 50/50 probability of a bear market in the next 12 months. The chances of a bear market are still high (based on the historical relationships) over the next 2 years, but remember that at any point in time the chances over 2 years can go up.
I won't quote the entire thing because I suspect that violates TOS, but it's an interesting read.Next, Goldman reminds its clients that even if it is right, and a crash is imminent, they still have a chance to sell during the so-called "bear market bounce."
I suspect the question many would have is given that we're in an "unprecedented" bull market, what would the bear look like? And would it follow the historic pattern, so that investors wouldn't have a chance to shift assets as the bear starts?
I know the correct response is to follow an investment strategy that doesn't rely on shifting assets (i.e., timing, whatever), but this is an intriguing view into investors' beliefs about what has typically happened in these types of markets, and of course into beliefs about what would happen in the next one.