The bear market is over

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matt
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The bear market is over

Post by matt »

I'm going on the record. I think the July 15 lows will hold.

If you haven't rebalanced in a while, it's time to dust off your spreadsheet and figure out how much in bonds you need to sell and how much in stocks to buy.
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mephistophles
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Re: The bear market is over

Post by mephistophles »

matt wrote:I'm going on the record. I think the July 15 lows will hold.

If you haven't rebalanced in a while, it's time to dust off your spreadsheet and figure out how much in bonds you need to sell and how much in stocks to buy.
I'm going on the record. I do not think the July 15th low will hold. So, rebalance when you normally do so.
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Post by sschullo »

I am going on record. I don't know if the July 15th bear market will hold. Rebalance as needed.
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bob90245
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Post by bob90245 »

My most recent rebalancing was last month when EFV (int'l value) dipped below it's lower trigger band. I only check my portfolio spreadsheet every Friday. So I'll know tommorow if another rebalancing will be required from any of my positions.
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Post by mptfan »

I am going on the record. I am not making any changes to my portfolio.
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gravlax
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Post by gravlax »

I'm not going on the record.
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SpringMan
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Post by SpringMan »

My portfolio today took out the July lows. :cry: This happened partly due to my holdings VGPMX and VGENX. Could this be a lesson?
Regards,
Best Wishes, SpringMan
guest42
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Post by guest42 »

:D :D :D Never can tell, might go up, might go down. I picked up $650 today going short - in & out by close of buisness. Never can tell, might go up, might go down.

p.s. my longs suffered terribly today. I added a bit to them as I am underweight my long term plan.

Linda-room42
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speedbump101
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Re: The bear market is over

Post by speedbump101 »

matt wrote:I'm going on the record. I think the July 15 lows will hold.

If you haven't rebalanced in a while, it's time to dust off your spreadsheet and figure out how much in bonds you need to sell and how much in stocks to buy.
Matt you're number 3 in the S&P 500 year end numbers contest as of Taylor's update... If I were you I'd start an investing newsletter, FAST, while your karma holds... :o

SB
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Adrian Nenu
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Post by Adrian Nenu »

I am going on record that I haven't got a clue as to when the market will hit bottom, when the bear market/recession will end and when the bull market will start. But this is a good time to be in the accumulation stage.

Adrian
anennu@tampabay.rr.com
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G12
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Post by G12 »

I am going on the record as saying I don't know what the record is as I bought EFV for the first time last week at $57.13 and apparently my timing was off by at least a week, if not more. :annoyed
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Julius H. Barnes
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Post by Julius H. Barnes »

I'm going on the record: the spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern. American business is steadily going back to a normal level of prosperity.
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Unormal
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Post by Unormal »

Julius H. Barnes wrote:I'm going on the record: the spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern. American business is steadily going back to a normal level of prosperity.
Oh, it was a time of hope; April, 1930, Twinkies are invented.
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Dan Moroboshi
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Post by Dan Moroboshi »

Julius H. Barnes wrote:I'm going on the record: the spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern. American business is steadily going back to a normal level of prosperity.
Did somebody say 1930's-era record?

Image

"Back to Meehan and his RCA pool. In March 1928 shares in the stock rose from $95 to $160 in just ten days. Meehan then got his investors out, raking in $millions. The Dow had been languishing in the 190-200 area for about 8 months and the action in RCA was credited with reviving the bullish sentiment that then propelled the Dow to its all-time level of 381 on September 3, 1929. That day shares in RCA traded over $500. You know what happened to the Dow, as it closed at 230 on Black Tuesday, October 29. RCA collapsed as well, and by the end of the year was trading around $130 (pre-split). It would rally in 1930, with the rest of the market, to back over $300, but then as the Dow Jones plummeted to its all-time low of 41.22 on July 8, 1932, shares in RCA were about $3. Three measly dollars."

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/educati ... adio2.html
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Sunny Sarkar
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Post by Sunny Sarkar »

These guys went on the record in 1979. Those who rebalanced regardless did well.
Image
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Judsen
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Post by Judsen »

I'm patiently waiting for S&P to get down to 1200 before I add to equities.
Meanwhile I'm still within my A-A. (asset -allocation)

PS It ain't over til the fat lady has sung.
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dave.d
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Post by dave.d »

figure out how much in bonds you need to sell
Treasuries, maybe. Corporates, no. Breakeven yield on 5-year TIPS has fallen to around 1.7%. Yield on Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade (duration 5 years) is 5.9%, thus 4.2% real (if you accept the breakeven TIPS rate as an unbiased inflation estimate, which I do). 4.2% real compares well with the expected long-term return on stocks!
Value-based allocation.
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Nice Post Sunny :)

Post by haban01 »

Sunny, Are you going to make it to the DH reunion later this month?

Eric :)
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Post by nonroom »

The market is down this year? I hadn't noticed.
You cannot control the actions of others. You can only control your reactions to their actions.
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Post by bookshot »

I think I've heard this tune before.
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Post by Easy Rhino »

I'll go on record as stating that since I don't have access to my rebalancing spreadsheet right now, I hope all my holdings are at least performing similarly to each other!
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aainvestor
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Post by aainvestor »

Adrian Nenu wrote:I am going on record that I haven't got a clue as to when the market will hit bottom, when the bear market/recession will end and when the bull market will start. But this is a good time to be in the accumulation stage.

Adrian
anennu@tampabay.rr.com
Here here....

Almost at the end of my accumulation phase so I am happy for a last minute sale before I have to really start getting conservative.

F-
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matt
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Post by matt »

You guys crack me up; you are all so predictable! You always want hard evidence on market timing, so here it is.

I don't have a catchy screenname or any books published, so I assume that most readers don't really pay close attention over time and "know" me as a poster. (Or you don't like me because I routinely disagree with the Boglehead groupthink.) Nonetheless, my posting history is available for anyone to go back and read to find out whether there is any substance behind what I say today or whether I'm just another foolish market timer.

I'll give you one link to previous examples of my "luck" over the past year.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... c&start=50

The courageous should buy now. I have already entered mutual fund trades to be executed at tomorrow's close and will decide tomorrow morning what tweaking to do in my brokerage account.
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Post by donocash »

Actually, I don't want any kind of evidence, hard or otherwise, on how good of a market timer you are, or think you are, or hope to be.

I certainly can't speak for Bogleheads. Speaking only for myself, I am puzzled by these bold pronouncements.

THE BEAR MARKET IS OVER. THE GREAT OZ HAS SPOKEN. TREMBLE BEFORE MY ACUTE PRESCIENCE.

Well, OK.

But, since you admit that Bogleheads are guilty of dirty groupthink, and are so ignorant as to routinely disagree with you, why exactly do you post here?

Are you hoping that in time we will come to see you as a prophet?

There is, I think, a general Boglehead philosophy, and this website is for an interaction between those believe in it, and like to discuss it.

If you only have contempt for Bogleheads, wouldn't it make sense to post your revelations elsewhere, in a like-minded place, where you might receive the hosannas you so surely deserve?

Or, do you hope that you may prove to be correct to the point that you can crow about the superiority of your hunches to the buy-and-hold crowd?

Even if this prediction comes true, that seems a mean and low ambition.

It should be enough to make good money on your hunches. Doing the "Look at me, look at me, I am right, and you are wrong wrong wrong" dance is pathetic.
bozo
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who cares?

Post by bozo »

OK, OK, the bear is over. Then we go down 3%. Oops, well, maybe it's not.

If you really, really, need that money within ten to twelve years, a nicely-laddered 10 to 12 year CD ladder is what's called-for.

Folks, with equities (even bonds) you have to have patience.

Real money, it's called cash.

Bozo
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Post by sopogah »

I am going on the record. The record is broken :lol:
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Post by brainstem »

(Yawn) :yawn
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Lbill
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Post by Lbill »

Once again this year the market bottom has been spotted (in the woods wearing an ape suit?). Has anyone spotted the bottom of the housing market? :P
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samurai sam
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Post by samurai sam »

matt wrote:You guys crack me up; you are all so predictable! You always want hard evidence on market timing, so here it is.

I don't have a catchy screenname or any books published, so I assume that most readers don't really pay close attention over time and "know" me as a poster. (Or you don't like me because I routinely disagree with the Boglehead groupthink.) Nonetheless, my posting history is available for anyone to go back and read to find out whether there is any substance behind what I say today or whether I'm just another foolish market timer.

I'll give you one link to previous examples of my "luck" over the past year.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... c&start=50

The courageous should buy now. I have already entered mutual fund trades to be executed at tomorrow's close and will decide tomorrow morning what tweaking to do in my brokerage account.
Still waiting for that "hard evidence", are you going to post it?
'Conquer the self and you will conquer the opponent.' - Takuan Soho.
DP
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Post by DP »

Hi,
my posting history is available for anyone to go back and read to find out whether there is any substance behind what I say
Actually I did recall one of your posts in particular from July 15:
I don't know what my current ytd return is, but it is likely down a few percent.
As of that date, for the year my benchmark allocation, a variation of the Six Ways from Sunday portfolio: vtsmx,vgtsx,pcrix,vgsix,vbmfx,vipsx was down just about 2% so I have to say that I am not impressed, especially since you seem to imply this is a period of time that you have done well. All market timers tend to have their ups and downs.

Don
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Post by mall0c »

donocash wrote:Actually, I don't want any kind of evidence, hard or otherwise, on how good of a market timer you are, or think you are, or hope to be.

I certainly can't speak for Bogleheads. Speaking only for myself, I am puzzled by these bold pronouncements.

THE BEAR MARKET IS OVER. THE GREAT OZ HAS SPOKEN. TREMBLE BEFORE MY ACUTE PRESCIENCE.

Well, OK.

But, since you admit that Bogleheads are guilty of dirty groupthink, and are so ignorant as to routinely disagree with you, why exactly do you post here?

Are you hoping that in time we will come to see you as a prophet?

There is, I think, a general Boglehead philosophy, and this website is for an interaction between those believe in it, and like to discuss it.

If you only have contempt for Bogleheads, wouldn't it make sense to post your revelations elsewhere, in a like-minded place, where you might receive the hosannas you so surely deserve?

Or, do you hope that you may prove to be correct to the point that you can crow about the superiority of your hunches to the buy-and-hold crowd?

Even if this prediction comes true, that seems a mean and low ambition.

It should be enough to make good money on your hunches. Doing the "Look at me, look at me, I am right, and you are wrong wrong wrong" dance is pathetic.
Hahahahaha, nice one!
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matt
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Post by matt »

THE bottom was set half an hour ago. Have fun, everyone.
Elysium
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Post by Elysium »

matt wrote:THE bottom was set half an hour ago. Have fun, everyone.
Hi Matt,

I read your previous posts dating back to 2007, you do have some insightful ideas into the current financial situation. In fact, I share some of those same thoughts about what you were saying back in 2007, the only difference is I did not (and will not) act based on those thoughts, on hindsight I wish I had, but it's so hard to get it right, so I don't even try. Rather what I take away is that my ability to read the market conditions keep me from making stupid mistakes, such as leveraging up to the eye balls when everyone else is doing so, and not panicking when the asset prices start tumbling because I had expected them to. But I do stay invested fully, because I can't predict the bottom and the top accurately. Personally, I have nothing to do because I have around 87% equities, with only 3% cash build up which I don't intend to invest before year end. It's not going to make a huge difference.

Given everything else you have said here before, why do you then think the bear market is over? I would like to hear something more substantial than a prediction. I would be disappointed if it turned out to be based on some sort of a technical indicator.
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Unormal
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Post by Unormal »

I find that many analysts can be amazingly accurate for windows of time; however no person can take into account all of the factors going on. When the underlying factors that whatever accurate analyst has been discounting or ignoring in his analysis come into play, suddenly the predictions are as bad as everyone elses. I'd certainly like it to be a bottom; diehard or not, it's certainly more fun making money than losing it.
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jsbecker
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Post by jsbecker »

As a boglehead I don't spend much time trying to time a low or a high. But having said that, I do notice that prices have been down over the past 12 months and I smile when I make my monthly SEP-IRA contributions knowing that somewhere down the road, the market will roar back.
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Post by mptfan »

jsbecker wrote:As a boglehead I don't spend much time trying to time a low or a high. But having said that, I do notice that prices have been down over the past 12 months and I smile when I make my monthly SEP-IRA contributions knowing that somewhere down the road, the market will roar back.
I wish I "knew" that was true. I "think" it is true, I "expect" it will be true, I "hope" it will be true, but I don't know.
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Post by nisiprius »

matt wrote:You guys crack me up; you are all so predictable!
But of course.

The Boglehead approach depends on predictability. "Staying the course" for decades means committing to act in a predictable way.

You can't predict what the market will do in a year, but you can make a very accurate prediction of what my asset allocation will be in a year: pretty much the same as it is today.

The results of that approach are predictable, too... at least when compared with the results of stock picking and market timing.
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Post by moneyman11 »

"Tweaking" online message board groups that they know will vehemently disagree with them is one of the great Internet pastimes for some people.

Whatever you may think of his market timing skills, "matt"'s trolling skills seem quite effective on this group, and grow greater with every reply.
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Post by Valuethinker »

moneyman11 wrote:"Tweaking" online message board groups that they know will vehemently disagree with them is one of the great Internet pastimes for some people.

Whatever you may think of his market timing skills, "matt"'s trolling skills seem quite effective on this group, and grow greater with every reply.
Hi

That is unfair to Matt. We've had many interesting and informative discussions with him here. He's an interesting thinker about stocks.

I happen to think that he is wrong that we can 'call the bottom' on stocks.

I know he's wrong, in fact, because I just bought $60k worth of stocks: a sure sign of trouble to come. I am a pretty good negative indicator on market timing ;-).

But he's not a troll, even if he doesn't always follow the orthodoxy around here.
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Post by moneyman11 »

Valuethinker wrote:
moneyman11 wrote:"Tweaking" online message board groups that they know will vehemently disagree with them is one of the great Internet pastimes for some people.

Whatever you may think of his market timing skills, "matt"'s trolling skills seem quite effective on this group, and grow greater with every reply.
Hi

That is unfair to Matt. We've had many interesting and informative discussions with him here. He's an interesting thinker about stocks.

I happen to think that he is wrong that we can 'call the bottom' on stocks.

I know he's wrong, in fact, because I just bought $60k worth of stocks: a sure sign of trouble to come. I am a pretty good negative indicator on market timing ;-).

But he's not a troll, even if he doesn't always follow the orthodoxy around here.

That may very well be true. And I was careful not to characterize <b>the person</b> as a troll.

However, the content (or lack thereof) of the original post of this thread cannot be characterized as anything other than trolling given the theme of this message board.

He knew exactly what the response would be among those that have been on this message board a long time, and the original post offered nothing of explanative value to those who have not.
Last edited by moneyman11 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Lbill »

I know he's wrong, in fact, because I just bought $60k worth of stocks: a sure sign of trouble to come. I am a pretty good negative indicator on market timing .
I always thought I'm the best contrarian indicator out there, but the problem is that only other people could benefit from my mistakes. I'm glad to find my own contrarian indicator, but how can I be sure you are the "best" one out there. Nominees please..
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market timer
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Post by market timer »

Pretty nice move after-hours, especially in financials.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080905/26564844.html
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Post by cloudeleven »

Guys, matt could definitely be right, the bottom may well have been in July. This Fannie/Freddie bailout happening this weekend will probably rocket shot the market next week and could be the final nail in the coffin of the bear market. The Fannie/Freddie stuff seemed to be the biggest worry of the market, and now that will be taken care of.

Hello bull market?
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Post by Rose21 »

I don't see how this news is going to be good for stocks, although I'm sure CNBC will be spinning it.
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Post by White Coat Investor »

No way is the bear over, I'll be investing a few bucks in two weeks. It is sure to go down after that!
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Post by diasurfer »

matt and market timer help keep things interesting around here. matt probably doesn't like being lumped with market timer but IMO they do the best job of counterbalancing the BH groupthink. I've spend most of the summer watching my portfolio drop in value with matt's posts and a couple of PMs over the past year in the back of my head.

matt is a lot less interesting when he gets indignant about the Bogleheads not giving him credit, because he already knows he's not going to get it.
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Post by retired at 48 »

Just an observation, but it appears the NAV of the regional banking sector exchange traded fund, KRE, today crossed the 200 day moving average on the upside. Hmmmm.

R48
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Post by Rose21 »

Deleted -- Wrong thread, sorry.
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Post by Unormal »

EmergDoc wrote:No way is the bear over, I'll be investing a few bucks in two weeks. It is sure to go down after that!
Hey maybe the market will go up 20% right before the contribution! THEN back down; horrible, and still the bottom. Don't lose hope :wink:
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Post by guest42 »

I'll go on record; I was positive with every inch of my being, that the July lows would be retested. At S&P 1272 I put on a short on the S&P. Thursday, before close of business, I collected on my short. Now that the DOW has touched 11000 and bounced off - I have not a clue what the market will do. Not a clue. My long term asset allocation is in place, and re balanced. I both have not a clue, and I also don't care. That market could do anything. I am amazed at how Pualson can move the market in big ways. And equally amazed how Britians "Darling" guy, did the same for the British pound, but negatively (our household is a household of mixed currency - my husbands pension comes in British Sterling --- someone get rid of that negative "Darling" guy, please).

Linda-room42
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