China to ban petrol cars

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misterno
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China to ban petrol cars

Post by misterno » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.

BHUser27
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by BHUser27 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:49 pm

Interesting.
I didn't know Volvo was owned by a Chinese Holding company (since 2010).
Their announcement to go all electric makes more sense now.
Chinese-owned carmaker Volvo said in July that all its new car models would have an electric motor from 2019. Geely Holding, Volvo's Chinese owner, aims to sell one million electric cars by 2025.

Point
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Point » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:01 pm

I don't make the assumption that China will ban anything but electric cars, and then replace them with electric cars that you can get on the open market. Given their control over the market in China, they can produce a product with far less features, costs and safety equipment in than those we can get here in the USA. Since their goal is to get everyone to use one, cost will be a big factor. Then, of course, they will still be producing electricity with Coal and other non-green sources, until they cut that over too. In the interim they will just be pushing the pollution down the line. This ban won't likely lead to a electric car market for non-Chinese producers to get into for some time.

thangngo
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by thangngo » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm

BHUser27 wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:49 pm
Interesting.
I didn't know Volvo was owned by a Chinese Holding company (since 2010).
Their announcement to go all electric makes more sense now.
Chinese-owned carmaker Volvo said in July that all its new car models would have an electric motor from 2019. Geely Holding, Volvo's Chinese owner, aims to sell one million electric cars by 2025.
Pfff. It's a click bait. China still have no idea when they convert totally to electric vehicles. Title of this thread is misleading.

Electric vehicles currently in production have many disadvantages over ICE vehicles:
1) It's expensive. Not a boglehead way to pay for EV.
2) EV is not as efficient as gasoline engine. EV would need: coal -> electricity -> battery -> motor. Whereas ICE does not waste much energy from gasoline.
3) Inefficient battery in cold weather.
4) Low horse power on freeway.

I hope they'll build a hybrid engine where the electric motor plays a role in acceleration and city driving, while gasoline engine does the rest.

For now, EV is expensive and does not offer as much value compared to ICE.

delamer
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by delamer » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:10 pm

Note that the United Kingdom and France already had decided to ban vehicles running on gasoline at a future date certain. It will be interesting to see how the process of converting goes, in terms of the oil production industry, gas station availability, etc.

munemaker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by munemaker » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:16 pm

misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
So you think the US should be the leader in banning petrol cars?

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jimb_fromATL
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by jimb_fromATL » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:19 pm

  • "...China wants electric battery cars and plug-in hybrids to account for at least one-fifth of its vehicle sales by 2025.
    The proposals would require 8% of automakers' sales to be battery electric or plug-in hybrids by next year, rising to 12% in 2020..."
Like the "all Volvos will be electric" headlines a few months ago, that headline appears to be sensationalizing. it does not mean all cars will be electric-only. It means a lot more of them of them will be hybrids in the future.

Plus, the average commute is shorter, but takes longer in China than in the US. So all-electric and plug-in and fuel/electric hybrids make more sense than in the most of the US. And it's a lot less expensive to provide the infrastructure where the cities are more densely populated -- like most of China.

jimb

misterno
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by misterno » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:20 pm

munemaker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:16 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
So you think the US should be the leader in banning petrol cars?
of course

electric cars are the future

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FIREchief
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by FIREchief » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm

misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:20 pm
munemaker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:16 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
So you think the US should be the leader in banning petrol cars?
of course

electric cars are the future
This may be true, however there are several paths to that future. I prefer the path where the electric cars become cheaper/better/safer and thus render internal combustion powered vehicles obsolete (think photographic film, video tape, etc.). "Banning" to force the change is not necessarily best for the consumer.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

munemaker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by munemaker » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:17 pm

FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:20 pm
munemaker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:16 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
So you think the US should be the leader in banning petrol cars?
of course

electric cars are the future

This may be true, however there are several paths to that future. I prefer the path where the electric cars become cheaper/better/safer and thus render internal combustion powered vehicles obsolete (think photographic film, video tape, etc.). "Banning" to force the change is not necessarily best for the consumer.
I could not have said that better. When the cost/benefit ratio is there, you won't have to ban petrol cars. There won't be any buyers.

cjking
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by cjking » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:43 pm

Point wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:01 pm
Then, of course, they will still be producing electricity with Coal and other non-green sources, until they cut that over too.
I have the vague impression that they are building massive solar power capacity. Just did a google and came across a random article.

http://www.dw.com/en/china-leading-the- ... a-39081117
The development of renewable energy is setting new records, with solar power now becoming cheaper than energy from new coal or nuclear plants.
China is one of the driving forces behind the solar power boom. Last year, around 45 percent of the world's new solar installations were built there. The United States, Japan and India were also top adopters of the technology, albeit significantly behind China.
(No idea whether web site is reliable or if they have an agenda.)

Slacker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Slacker » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:44 pm

thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
2) EV is not as efficient as gasoline engine. EV would need: coal -> electricity -> battery -> motor. Whereas ICE does not waste much energy from gasoline.
I disagree with this assertion.

Study from 2012, the the US grid had only just barely started mass displacement of coal power by natural gas power:
http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media/f ... rh-ptd.pdf

Conventional Gasoline vehicle lifetime energy usage: 858MJ
Battery electric vehicle lifetime energy usage: 507MJ

It is very convenient to forget the energy inputs of extracting, transporting, refining, and transporting gasoline - especially if you are going to talk about the costs for coal energy production.

Benefit of BEV -> as the grid changes power sources your vehicle is now sourced by less energy intensive substitutes (or less polluting or both).

US Example:
Image

China Example:
(from wikipedia)

Code: Select all

Electricity production in China (TWh)[11]
From coal	Total	 %
2004	1,713	2,200	78%
2007	2,656	3,279	81%
2008	2,733	3,457	79%
2009	2,913	3,696	79%
2010	3,273	4,208	78%
2011	3,724	4,715	79%
2012	3,850	4,937	78%
2013	4,200	5,398	78%
2014	4,354	5,583	78%
2015	4,115	5,666	73%
2016	3,906	5,920	66%[1]
excluding Hong Kong
Where the grid is changing in China as they put in mass installations of renewable power. The precipitous drop from 2014 to 2015 to 2016 is very telling and they will likely continue the downward trend in coal power production by the end of 2017. They are projected to be installing over 65GW of solar and wind capacity this year.

mike_slc
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by mike_slc » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:50 pm

munemaker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:17 pm
FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:20 pm
munemaker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:16 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
So you think the US should be the leader in banning petrol cars?
of course

electric cars are the future

This may be true, however there are several paths to that future. I prefer the path where the electric cars become cheaper/better/safer and thus render internal combustion powered vehicles obsolete (think photographic film, video tape, etc.). "Banning" to force the change is not necessarily best for the consumer.
I could not have said that better. When the cost/benefit ratio is there, you won't have to ban petrol cars. There won't be any buyers.
Cost/benefit ratio will never be there in the US, since free market does not do well at pricing externalities, like downstream environmental costs.

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wander
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by wander » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:04 pm

I think the main pollution in China is burning coal.

ncbill
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by ncbill » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:05 pm

thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
2) EV is not as efficient as gasoline engine. EV would need: coal -> electricity -> battery -> motor. Whereas ICE does not waste much energy from gasoline.
An electric motor is much more efficient than any production ICE but battery storage is ridiculously expensive with much poorer energy density compared to liquid fuels.

Slacker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Slacker » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:13 pm

mike_slc wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:50 pm

Cost/benefit ratio will never be there in the US, since free market does not do well at pricing externalities, like downstream environmental costs.
We aren't far off, even without including "pricing externalities".

5 years or so and it will be cheaper to own the battery electric vehicle. Reliability will be higher as well (with the batteries likely to be the greatest source of problems). 20 moving parts in the drivetrain of an EV vs 2000 moving parts in the drivetrain of an ICE makes a huge difference especially as the ICE adopts more technologies to try to extend its life (high compression ratio turbocharging, direct injection, variable valve timing, variable valve lift, 8-9-10 speed transmissions, CVTs, emissions controls, fuel controls, air controls, temperature controls, etc).

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just frank
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:32 pm

FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:20 pm
munemaker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:16 pm
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
So you think the US should be the leader in banning petrol cars?
of course

electric cars are the future
This may be true, however there are several paths to that future. I prefer the path where the electric cars become cheaper/better/safer and thus render internal combustion powered vehicles obsolete (think photographic film, video tape, etc.). "Banning" to force the change is not necessarily best for the consumer.
More likely is that cities will charge a pollution surcharge for ICE cars to enter...and EVs will be free.

This is likely **after** the price/value tipping point, and will destroy the used (ICE) car market. One analyst was asked what he thought EVs would do to the price of used cars by the mid-2020s....he hemmed and hawed and finally said his models predicted that they would be negative.

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F150HD
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by F150HD » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:53 pm

very misleading thread title

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FIREchief
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by FIREchief » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:58 pm

just frank wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:32 pm
FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm
This may be true, however there are several paths to that future. I prefer the path where the electric cars become cheaper/better/safer and thus render internal combustion powered vehicles obsolete (think photographic film, video tape, etc.). "Banning" to force the change is not necessarily best for the consumer.
More likely is that cities will charge a pollution surcharge for ICE cars to enter...and EVs will be free.

This is likely **after** the price/value tipping point, and will destroy the used (ICE) car market. One analyst was asked what he thought EVs would do to the price of used cars by the mid-2020s....he hemmed and hawed and finally said his models predicted that they would be negative.
Wouldn't that pollution surcharge just be a tax on gasoline?

That analyst is nuts. ICE cars will always have some type of salvage value for the steel and other metals. Also, as long as there is gas to burn, somebody will need cheap transportation and be interested in owning a low cost ICE car.

(btw: you still have my favorite avatar on the forum. DD!!) 8-)
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:26 pm

thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
Electric vehicles currently in production have many disadvantages over ICE vehicles:
4) Low horse power on freeway.
Hahahahaha. Wanna race?

justbpatient
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by justbpatient » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:29 pm

ncbill wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:05 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
2) EV is not as efficient as gasoline engine. EV would need: coal -> electricity -> battery -> motor. Whereas ICE does not waste much energy from gasoline.
An electric motor is much more efficient than any production ICE but battery storage is ridiculously expensive with much poorer energy density compared to liquid fuels.
Yup. What about people with long commutes? Or road trips? The current website for the chevy bolt mentions at fastest charge speeds, which likely isn't good for the battery, you can get 90 miles of charge in 30 minutes. That's not practicle at all for non city dwellers which is why I think hybrids are more likely en masse than pure EV. In any case I'm a V8 muscle car fan so I'm not really looking forward all of this :(

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knpstr
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by knpstr » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:29 pm

Looking into = doing. mmm okay
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

emoore
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by emoore » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:43 pm

Thankfully things are staring to change from burning goal. Electric cars and renewable energy are the future and it needs to be the future for a variety of reasons. Hopefully we will have more hybrid and EV choices in the US.

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just frank
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:44 pm

FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:58 pm
just frank wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:32 pm
FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm
This may be true, however there are several paths to that future. I prefer the path where the electric cars become cheaper/better/safer and thus render internal combustion powered vehicles obsolete (think photographic film, video tape, etc.). "Banning" to force the change is not necessarily best for the consumer.
More likely is that cities will charge a pollution surcharge for ICE cars to enter...and EVs will be free.

This is likely **after** the price/value tipping point, and will destroy the used (ICE) car market. One analyst was asked what he thought EVs would do to the price of used cars by the mid-2020s....he hemmed and hawed and finally said his models predicted that they would be negative.
Wouldn't that pollution surcharge just be a tax on gasoline?

That analyst is nuts. ICE cars will always have some type of salvage value for the steel and other metals. Also, as long as there is gas to burn, somebody will need cheap transportation and be interested in owning a low cost ICE car.

(btw: you still have my favorite avatar on the forum. DD!!) 8-)
Not a gasoline tax....a city pollution/luxury tax. Like an ICE car gets a $50 toll/day within city limits, independent of how much gas is burned. Get an EV...no tax.

The analysis is based upon a hypothetical future when relative to ICE cars, EVs have lower up front cost, lower operating/energy cost, lower maintenance cost, available spare parts, better performance and better social acceptability. The cheap wheels will be used, crappy EVs....or self-driving EV ubers.

You could commute to work on a horse....but it would be expensive and people would think you were weird (unless you are the sec'y of the interior)

"Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?"

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FIREchief
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by FIREchief » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:46 pm

just frank wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:44 pm
"Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?"
Nice. 8-)
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

cjking
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by cjking » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:35 am

just frank wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:44 pm
Not a gasoline tax....a city pollution/luxury tax. Like an ICE car gets a $50 toll/day within city limits, independent of how much gas is burned. Get an EV...no tax.
This is being introduced in London at the moment. Cars already have to pay a congestion charge to enter the centre, now older cars (as judged be emissions standard they reach) will have to pay a "toxicity charge" which doubles that fee. Electric cars have to pay neither. (Though I think the exemption from congestion charge is illogical and will disappear at some stage. A similar exemption hybrids used to have has already disappeared.)

The T-charge is only the start, in 2019 the standards are tightening further.
The next stage of London’s emissions charges was due to begin in September 2020, when owners of diesel cars that fail to meet the very latest Euro 6 standards (most vehicles registered before September 2015) will have to pay £24 a day to drive in central London, made up of the £11.50 Congestion Charge and a £12.50 emissions surcharge.

But Sadiq Khan, London’s Mayor, has just announced that this will be brought forward to April 8, 2019. He has also proposed a vast extension of the zone. It was initially going to cover the small central Congestion Zone area, but Khan wants to expand this to most of inner London, an area then times the size, by 2021.
http://www.buyacar.co.uk/cars/diesel-ca ... ers#London

That article is about diesel cars, but the charges apply to all ICE vehicles. Here's another article that's less specific.

https://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2017/04/ ... e-details/
Inside the ULEZ petrol vehicles will have to comply with the the Euro 4 emission standard, and diesel vehicles will have to meet the more stringent Euro 6 emission standard, or a rather hefty fee will be levied: £12.50 for cars, vans, and motorcycles, or £100 for buses, coaches, and HGVs.

Valuethinker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:30 am

FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:58 pm
just frank wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:32 pm
FIREchief wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:36 pm
This may be true, however there are several paths to that future. I prefer the path where the electric cars become cheaper/better/safer and thus render internal combustion powered vehicles obsolete (think photographic film, video tape, etc.). "Banning" to force the change is not necessarily best for the consumer.
More likely is that cities will charge a pollution surcharge for ICE cars to enter...and EVs will be free.

This is likely **after** the price/value tipping point, and will destroy the used (ICE) car market. One analyst was asked what he thought EVs would do to the price of used cars by the mid-2020s....he hemmed and hawed and finally said his models predicted that they would be negative.
Wouldn't that pollution surcharge just be a tax on gasoline?

That analyst is nuts. ICE cars will always have some type of salvage value for the steel and other metals. Also, as long as there is gas to burn, somebody will need cheap transportation and be interested in owning a low cost ICE car.

(btw: you still have my favorite avatar on the forum. DD!!) 8-)
It is now estimated that the price of used diesel cars in the UK has fallen by 17%. This is due to the public's belief that there will be increased restrictions on using diesel cars in cities-- London they have been announced, but other cities as well.

In effect, the VW scandal has hammered the diesel car market. (that plus revelations about London having, apparently, the highest NOX concentration in *the world* (I suspect in reality that is only where it has reliably been measured) on Oxford Street).

The message is clear. Some types of propulsion plant can, and will, be banned.

It's not a safe bet that you will be able to drive an ICE car after sometime in the 2030s, at least in urban areas-- and I would not have written that sentence even 5 years ago. If you can, it could be a very expensive little exercise. (To clarify something I wrote on another thread today: ICE cars may be banned altogether by 2050s, or prohibitively expensive to drive-- by 2040s they just may not be sold, new*).


* there's some percentage of locations & applications for personal transport where it's hard to see doing without an ICE. Big parts of Africa for example. So that's a stretch. But I think it's reasonable to predict one will pay a hellish price to own/ use them.

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bottlecap
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by bottlecap » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:14 am

misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
China bans a lot of things. Perhaps we shouldn't always take their lead.

JT

thangngo
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by thangngo » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:53 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:26 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
Electric vehicles currently in production have many disadvantages over ICE vehicles:
4) Low horse power on freeway.
Hahahahaha. Wanna race?
0-60 you'll win. But after that, once I catch up, can you keep up? :mrgreen: can the battery keep up with the pure horse power?

Valuethinker
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:09 am

bottlecap wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:14 am
misterno wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:41 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

I can not believe it is happenning

USA used to be the leader in these things but now look who is more bold.
China bans a lot of things. Perhaps we shouldn't always take their lead.

JT
Note that China is not alone in announcing this policy-- doubtless there will be a lot of chopping and changing before we get to those dates.

Their challenges are different -- when you have 1.4 billion people your pollution problems become more urgent. Bad air in Beijing affects 20-40m people, for example (more like 100m+ if you include surrounding provinces). Since they are now the world's largest car market, automotive pollution is an increasing percentage of that alongside electric power generation, home heating and industrial. Electricity generation they can, and will, clean up*. Home heating has been moved to gas in the big cities, largely. Industrial presumably they will clean up-- as the Americans, Europeans and Japanese did in the 1970s (seen those old photos from the Pittsburgh Pollution Control Project-- the darkness at mid day?).

But their problems are also the same even if their ways to getting to solutions are different from ours.

* China is fast becoming the world's largest LNG importer. Asian LNG prices, which were 5x US (Henry Hub) gas prices, are now only 2x.

thangngo
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by thangngo » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:20 am

Slacker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:44 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
2) EV is not as efficient as gasoline engine. EV would need: coal -> electricity -> battery -> motor. Whereas ICE does not waste much energy from gasoline.
I disagree with this assertion.

Study from 2012, the the US grid had only just barely started mass displacement of coal power by natural gas power

Conventional Gasoline vehicle lifetime energy usage: 858MJ
Battery electric vehicle lifetime energy usage: 507MJ

It is very convenient to forget the energy inputs of extracting, transporting, refining, and transporting gasoline - especially if you are going to talk about the costs for coal energy production.

Benefit of BEV -> as the grid changes power sources your vehicle is now sourced by less energy intensive substitutes (or less polluting or both).

Where the grid is changing in China as they put in mass installations of renewable power. The precipitous drop from 2014 to 2015 to 2016 is very telling and they will likely continue the downward trend in coal power production by the end of 2017. They are projected to be installing over 65GW of solar and wind capacity this year.
@Slacker: I enjoyed reading your post above. very detail.

The electric power system is inefficient in terms of both resource use and market economy. According to galvinpower.org, two-thirds of the fuel burned to generate electricity is lost in generation and delivery process. In other words, the U.S. power system operates at approximately 33% efficiency. Whereas, U.S. refinery reaches new high in efficiency (up to 88% according to Argonne National Laboratory with 2008 data). This is what I meant by my assertion.

I've done a quick excel analysis for cost of gasoline vs. cost of electric car not too long ago, since I'm interested in cutting cost in daily commuting. Surprisingly, gasoline option is cheaper. Wind power and solar power will need land, infrastructure and more upfront investment. I wouldn't want to pay for it while I can pay for cheaper alternative power in gasoline.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:37 am

thangngo wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:53 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:26 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
Electric vehicles currently in production have many disadvantages over ICE vehicles:
4) Low horse power on freeway.
Hahahahaha. Wanna race?
0-60 you'll win. But after that, once I catch up, can you keep up? :mrgreen: can the battery keep up with the pure horse power?
From http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture ... er-torque/
So let's cut to the chase: 588 horsepower and 920 lb-ft of torque at the wheels, in a bone-stock Tesla Model S P100D with Ludicrous+. But that might not be the final word: As Brooks explains, these dyno runs started from a roll, not a dead stop, due to the traction issues we mentioned above. Even then, the car briefly spun its wheels on the dyno rollers, meaning it momentarily made more power than the dyno could handle. Finally, these numbers came from the ninth consecutive dyno pull—meaning the car's battery wasn't at full charge.
fwiw, you said "on freeway" not racetrack, and yes, I think that on the freeway, I can keep up. On the Autobahn, perhaps you'll pull ahead. IRL, after driving ICE vehicles for more than 50 years, I can honestly say that the driving experience in an EV is superior. My oldest son, who used to race (and sometimes win) in ICE cars, says that the "lack of drama" when asked to perform, the immediate and smooth torque, is something to get used to. He drives my car with the familiar "EV grin." You all can debate cost, mainstream resistance, suitability for particular use cases, etc., but when you question EV performance, I just roll my eyes and shake my head.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by thangngo » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:56 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:37 am
From http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture ... er-torque/
So let's cut to the chase: 588 horsepower and 920 lb-ft of torque at the wheels, in a bone-stock Tesla Model S P100D with Ludicrous+. But that might not be the final word: As Brooks explains, these dyno runs started from a roll, not a dead stop, due to the traction issues we mentioned above. Even then, the car briefly spun its wheels on the dyno rollers, meaning it momentarily made more power than the dyno could handle. Finally, these numbers came from the ninth consecutive dyno pull—meaning the car's battery wasn't at full charge.
fwiw, you said "on freeway" not racetrack, and yes, I think that on the freeway, I can keep up. On the Autobahn, perhaps you'll pull ahead. IRL, after driving ICE vehicles for more than 50 years, I can honestly say that the driving experience in an EV is superior. My oldest son, who used to race (and sometimes win) in ICE cars, says that the "lack of drama" when asked to perform, the immediate and smooth torque, is something to get used to. He drives my car with the familiar "EV grin." You all can debate cost, mainstream resistance, suitability for particular use cases, etc., but when you question EV performance, I just roll my eyes and shake my head.
Don't get me wrong. Tesla Model S is an amazing car for commuting. Had it been cheaper, I'd buy it. Now back to EV performance. Correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think you can drive Tesla at high speed for extensive period of time. The battery will get hot and car will lose power. With EV, you'll get instant torque (which is amazing!), but it lacks of horse power that you'll get from a V6 or V8 engine.

Tesla fails to lap Nurburging: http://insideevs.com/expected-tesla-mod ... wer-video/

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:01 am

thangngo wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:20 am
Slacker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:44 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
2) EV is not as efficient as gasoline engine. EV would need: coal -> electricity -> battery -> motor. Whereas ICE does not waste much energy from gasoline.
I disagree with this assertion.

Study from 2012, the the US grid had only just barely started mass displacement of coal power by natural gas power

Conventional Gasoline vehicle lifetime energy usage: 858MJ
Battery electric vehicle lifetime energy usage: 507MJ

It is very convenient to forget the energy inputs of extracting, transporting, refining, and transporting gasoline - especially if you are going to talk about the costs for coal energy production.

Benefit of BEV -> as the grid changes power sources your vehicle is now sourced by less energy intensive substitutes (or less polluting or both).

Where the grid is changing in China as they put in mass installations of renewable power. The precipitous drop from 2014 to 2015 to 2016 is very telling and they will likely continue the downward trend in coal power production by the end of 2017. They are projected to be installing over 65GW of solar and wind capacity this year.
@Slacker: I enjoyed reading your post above. very detail.

The electric power system is inefficient in terms of both resource use and market economy. According to galvinpower.org, two-thirds of the fuel burned to generate electricity is lost in generation and delivery process. In other words, the U.S. power system operates at approximately 33% efficiency. Whereas, U.S. refinery reaches new high in efficiency (up to 88% according to Argonne National Laboratory with 2008 data). This is what I meant by my assertion.

I've done a quick excel analysis for cost of gasoline vs. cost of electric car not too long ago, since I'm interested in cutting cost in daily commuting. Surprisingly, gasoline option is cheaper. Wind power and solar power will need land, infrastructure and more upfront investment. I wouldn't want to pay for it while I can pay for cheaper alternative power in gasoline.
All combustion systems have thermodynamic limits that cannot be exceeded, and even approaching them requires $$ power-plant engineering. Your 33% figure for the grid **includes** this big hit, while your number for petro refining (88%) does not. The electricity to wheels is probably 85% efficiency, while the petro to wheels is more like 20%. Including combustion losses correctly from primary fuel to wheels the EV comes out well ahead even with your 33% figure (0.33*0.85 versus 0.88*0.20). Newer natgas plants are well above 33%, and renewable energy has no thermodynamic losses...so the latter are MUCH more efficient on a primary energy basis...wind or sun to wheels.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:20 am

thangngo wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:56 am
Don't get me wrong. Tesla Model S is an amazing car for commuting. Had it been cheaper, I'd buy it. Now back to EV performance. Correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think you can drive Tesla at high speed for extensive period of time. The battery will get hot and car will lose power. With EV, you'll get instant torque (which is amazing!), but it lacks of horse power that you'll get from a V6 or V8 engine.

Tesla fails to lap Nurburging: http://insideevs.com/expected-tesla-mod ... wer-video/
IRL, even when I'm driving a bit faster that the posted speeds :D , the horsepower of the Tesla has been, as Rolls Royce salesman used to say, "sufficient." I would wager that Nurburgring is not on many use cases.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by LiterallyIronic » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:41 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:26 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
Electric vehicles currently in production have many disadvantages over ICE vehicles:
4) Low horse power on freeway.
Hahahahaha. Wanna race?
I don't think you'll win in your electric car. I'm not talking a quarter mile Fast and the Furious race. Shaving two seconds off a very short drive doesn't do anything for me. I'm talking a 700 mile trip that I make fairly frequently. I stop the car one time during the trip. For gas in the middle, and it's a five minute stop. How's an electric car (not a hybrid) going to do on a 700 mile trip?

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:48 am

Nurburgring, 700 mile races; I'll admit it, your use cases don't work well for a Tesla. :oops:

My prediction, based on not knowing either of you but having known many petrol heads who converted: someday you'll own a high-end EV, and you'll wish you had switched sooner.

:sharebeer

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by thangngo » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:02 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:48 am
Nurburgring, 700 mile races; I'll admit it, your use cases don't work well for a Tesla. :oops:

My prediction, based on not knowing either of you but having known many petrol heads who converted: someday you'll own a high-end EV, and you'll wish you had switched sooner.

:sharebeer
When the price is right :sharebeer I like car and love what Tesla has pioneered so far.
just frank wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:01 am

All combustion systems have thermodynamic limits that cannot be exceeded, and even approaching them requires $$ power-plant engineering. Your 33% figure for the grid **includes** this big hit, while your number for petro refining (88%) does not. The electricity to wheels is probably 85% efficiency, while the petro to wheels is more like 20%. Including combustion losses correctly from primary fuel to wheels the EV comes out well ahead even with your 33% figure (0.33*0.85 versus 0.88*0.20). Newer natgas plants are well above 33%, and renewable energy has no thermodynamic losses...so the latter are MUCH more efficient on a primary energy basis...wind or sun to wheels.
I forgot to factor in inefficiency of ICE engine. Thanks for your input! Hopefully it'll trend in the right direction where the consumer is the winner, regardless of gasoline or electric.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by ryman554 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:07 am

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:41 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:26 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
Electric vehicles currently in production have many disadvantages over ICE vehicles:
4) Low horse power on freeway.
Hahahahaha. Wanna race?
I don't think you'll win in your electric car. I'm not talking a quarter mile Fast and the Furious race. Shaving two seconds off a very short drive doesn't do anything for me. I'm talking a 700 mile trip that I make fairly frequently. I stop the car one time during the trip. For gas in the middle, and it's a five minute stop. How's an electric car (not a hybrid) going to do on a 700 mile trip?
What does that have to do with low horse power on a freeway?

Your objection to long trips is quite valid, and not something that you can do as efficently in an EV. Of course, dirivng 700 miles straight through is an exercise in endurance not many folks have the stomach for. I did 1000+ miles in a day in a moving van once, and it's not something I care to repeat.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:19 am

ryman554 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:07 am
... Of course, dirivng 700 miles straight through is an exercise in endurance not many folks have the stomach for.
My stomach might handle it, but my bladder? :oops:

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by greg24 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:31 am

A lot of the anti-EV posts use extreme scenarios (700+ mile trips, 150 mile commutes) that most people rarely, if ever, do.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by LiterallyIronic » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:14 am

greg24 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:31 am
A lot of the anti-EV posts use extreme scenarios (700+ mile trips, 150 mile commutes) that most people rarely, if ever, do.
To be clear, I'm definitely not anti electric car. I'm all for that. But I need to be able to make it 350 miles on a charge and fully charge within 30 minutes before the technology is good enough for me. And I need enough charging stations in the right locations before the infrastructure is good enough for me.

It'll be awesome when we get there, but we're not there yet.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:20 am

thangngo wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:20 am
Slacker wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:44 pm
thangngo wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:08 pm
2) EV is not as efficient as gasoline engine. EV would need: coal -> electricity -> battery -> motor. Whereas ICE does not waste much energy from gasoline.
I disagree with this assertion.

Study from 2012, the the US grid had only just barely started mass displacement of coal power by natural gas power

Conventional Gasoline vehicle lifetime energy usage: 858MJ
Battery electric vehicle lifetime energy usage: 507MJ

It is very convenient to forget the energy inputs of extracting, transporting, refining, and transporting gasoline - especially if you are going to talk about the costs for coal energy production.

Benefit of BEV -> as the grid changes power sources your vehicle is now sourced by less energy intensive substitutes (or less polluting or both).

Where the grid is changing in China as they put in mass installations of renewable power. The precipitous drop from 2014 to 2015 to 2016 is very telling and they will likely continue the downward trend in coal power production by the end of 2017. They are projected to be installing over 65GW of solar and wind capacity this year.
@Slacker: I enjoyed reading your post above. very detail.

The electric power system is inefficient in terms of both resource use and market economy. According to galvinpower.org, two-thirds of the fuel burned to generate electricity is lost in generation and delivery process. In other words, the U.S. power system operates at approximately 33% efficiency.
US Coal Fired Stations are around 35% thermal efficiency on average. You do, however, also have to mine the coal and get it to the power station.

Gas fired stations (CCGT - combined cycle) run around 55% efficiency although you have to get the NG to the plant. Since the US barely imports LNG (in fact exports it now, so only imports in New England) we can take that loss as fairly low-- just the compression to put it into the trunk pipelines.

Roughly speaking that's each about 1/3rd of kwhr generated-- I have taken 36% each, NG at 50% efficiency.

Then we get to the rest. Nuclear is around 16-18%. Thermal efficiency of nuclear stations is around 25-30%, but no one cares. We don't care about wasted calories from an enriched uranium pile! We just look at net output. Of course you have to get the uranium mined, refined and shipped (say probably only 1-2% loss).

Hydroelectric wind and solar (the rest) one does not care about thermal efficiency.

Standard assumption is that Transmission & Distribution losses are 7-8%.

An EV motor is about 80% efficient. However there is "leakage" from stored batteries. I don't have a good estimate for that one.

Taking the c. 28% of electricity in the US not generated using fossil fuels as efficiency = 1.0, I get an average efficiency (with no storage loss) of c. 40%.

Whereas, U.S. refinery reaches new high in efficiency (up to 88% according to Argonne National Laboratory with 2008 data). This is what I meant by my assertion.
ICE are c. 28% efficient. You also have to get the crude out of the ground and to the refinery, refine it, and then distribute it. You also get into things like the cracking fraction i.e. how much jetfuel, gasoline, heating oil do you produce per barrel etc.

Somewhere between 20-25% of all the energy in a barrel of crude oil is converted into forward motive power, would be my guess.

I conclude, and I am sure someone has done a much more precise estimate, that on current US fuel mix an EV is about twice as efficient as an ICE light passenger vehicle. Between 1.5 & 2.0x .

Just Frank has a more informed calculation, I have just seen.
I've done a quick excel analysis for cost of gasoline vs. cost of electric car not too long ago, since I'm interested in cutting cost in daily commuting. Surprisingly, gasoline option is cheaper. Wind power and solar power will need land, infrastructure and more upfront investment. I wouldn't want to pay for it while I can pay for cheaper alternative power in gasoline.
That's because the environmental externality is unpriced. Air pollution from cars is one of the biggest sources of air pollution in a developed country.

US gasoline prices are the lowest in the developed world. You have to go to oil exporting countries to get significantly lower-- there (Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia -- & Russia I presume) prices are held down for political reasons (basically to avoid p'ing off urban consumers, who would then riot against the government). And India, but that's a special case (fuel subsidies are embedded in the culture although they have been reduced).

I am unsurprised that EVs are not cost effective in the USA, excepting the heaviest urban commuter drivers. The rest of the world will get there sooner.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:24 am

greg24 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:31 am
A lot of the anti-EV posts use extreme scenarios (700+ mile trips, 150 mile commutes) that most people rarely, if ever, do.
I remember there was that NYT journalist who wrote about range anxiety with the early Tesla.

Unfortunately, he did not seem to realize that Tesla could check what his car actually did -- he was busted as having driven it in a big circle for some time during his journey ;-).

Similarly, Jeremy Clarkson of Top Gear fame* managed to run his Nissan Leaf out of juice. Nissan was able to show that he had deliberately flattened the battery.


* a very amusing chap e.g. driving through places in Argentina with a British flag and an insult re the Malvinas (Falklands) war on the bumper.

However when the Top Gear crew went to the US south and basically made fun of "dumb southerners" (who had shown them great hospitality) the downside of that sense of humour (which I don't defend btw) were made manifest to a North American audience.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:27 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:37 am
On the Autobahn, perhaps you'll pull ahead. IRL, after driving ICE vehicles for more than 50 years, I can honestly say that the driving experience in an EV is superior.
The actual parts of the Autobahn where there is no speed limit are much less than the whole system.

In addition, road traffic in lots of Germany is really quite bad.

Ones chances to use that Vorsprung Durch Technik in Germany are, sadly, exaggerated.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:43 am

Point wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:01 pm
I don't make the assumption that China will ban anything but electric cars, and then replace them with electric cars that you can get on the open market. Given their control over the market in China, they can produce a product with far less features, costs and safety equipment in than those we can get here in the USA. Since their goal is to get everyone to use one, cost will be a big factor. Then, of course, they will still be producing electricity with Coal and other non-green sources, until they cut that over too. In the interim they will just be pushing the pollution down the line. This ban won't likely lead to a electric car market for non-Chinese producers to get into for some time.
I don't know that Chinese cars have lower safety standards?

Maybe they don't have airbags-- not sure. Chinese cars have historically tended to be 10-15 years behind the technology of western countries, but I think that gap has more or less closed.

China is the world's largest car market. If EVs reach say 3m pa in China (so c. 1/6th of Chinese new car market, last time I checked) then that gives significant economies of scale. That will tend to drive down prices for EVs everywhere in the world.

It's not so much the economies of scale at the OEM level (i.e. assembly) it's the economies in the supply chain-- batteries and other key components.

On moving from coal fired electricity, they are well on the way. In that, urban air pollution is one of the biggest political risks for the ruling CPC-- you can tell that by their determination to "name and shame" polluters. Non Party political activities are not encouraged in PRC but environmental groups & environmental monitoring & reporting is being allowed. The Central Government is using the people to report on, and to pressure, state governments and companies that are the worst offenders in pollution.

And the global infrastructure for LNG is now in place-- Pacific Basin LNG costs, which were 5x US domestic (Henry Hub) costs are now 2x. The US has entered into that market, competing with the likes of Australia and Qatar. Plus a pipeline is being built from Siberia.

Since gas fired stations are cheap and quick to build, and it's the biggest "quick win" on air pollution, the Chinese will move remarkably fast away from coal and towards Natural Gas. Roughly speaking, a kwhr of gas fired electricity has half the pollutants (c. 500g / kwhr) of a coal fired one (c 1.1 kg/ kwhr). In addition, NG has essentially no particulates (and the health hazards of PM 2.5 particles are only just being realized) or SO2 (and less Nox).

Note also some amazing fraction of the air pollution in Beijing is actually from the trucks carrying the coal, sitting traffic jammed on the freeways, with coal dust blowing off, etc. I think I've heard estimates of c. 10%. You couldn't make it up.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by unclescrooge » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:12 am

Don't most of China's population still use bicycles or mopeds?

This whole thread is irrelevant :mrgreen:

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by just frank » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:27 pm

unclescrooge wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:12 am
Don't most of China's population still use bicycles or mopeds?

This whole thread is irrelevant :mrgreen:
According to Forbes, sales of new cars to China exceeded the US number a few years back....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... f08c23aa8d

and it is still growing fast, while the US market is plateaued.

The change in per capita income/wealth in China in the last 15 years is similar to that that occurred in the US from 1900 to 1960.

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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:48 pm

ryman554 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:07 am
Your objection to long trips is quite valid, and not something that you can do as efficently in an EV. Of course, dirivng 700 miles straight through is an exercise in endurance not many folks have the stomach for. I did 1000+ miles in a day in a moving van once, and it's not something I care to repeat.
I think more people do long trips like this than you think. I've done the Hopkinton, MA to Blacksburg, VA trip many, many times. 720 miles. I stop at the same place (1 stop) in Scranton, PA. It has the "stops" on the gas filler so I stick it in the car, go in and order a sub, hit the mens room, come out and get the sub, out to put the gas filler away and on to 81 to eat in the car. 8 minutes max off highway time.

The highway speed doesn't matter between an ICE and EV because cops in CT, NY, Pa and MD are horribly focused on revenue enhancement. So I go as fast as my cruise control set at the limit allows me.

In the end, a hybrid setup is the most practical at the moment. Think McLaren P1 or Acura NSX (because I'm not being bored to death in a Prius). I would ask.....with an EV for a long distance trip.....if everyone has an EV, will everyone pull into a charging station and wait for 4 hours while the 5 cars before you use the supercharger? Think Labor day weekend.
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Re: China to ban petrol cars

Post by stoptothink » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:53 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:48 pm
...if everyone has an EV, will everyone pull into a charging station and wait for 4 hours while the 5 cars before you use the supercharger? Think Labor day weekend.[/b]
This is a serious logistical problem that I never hear brought up.

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