Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

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user76586
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by user76586 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:43 pm

matthewmatt wrote:
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:49 pm
THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A 15 Y PERIOD IN THE HISTORY OF UNITED STATES WHEN PEOPLE WOULD LOSE MONEY ON THE STOCK MARKET (if they bought SP500).
Past performance does not equal future results.

Valuethinker
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:58 am

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:50 pm
alex_686 wrote:
This lead to social stability. It also poured resources into dead end industries. Japan's youth faces a hard landscape. They are more likely to have a temporary contract job instead of those lifetime jobs. So their skills tend to be less developed. With lower earning power they are less likely to live on their own, they delay marriage, etc. So peak underneath the hood and things are don't look so good.
In addition Japan is the poster child for the greatest demographic challenge in all the developed world going forward. They have both a decreasing total population and a rapidly aging one. Cultural barriers to foreclosing on loans, firing employees, etc., decrease overall economic productivity. They accept much less than the US the idea of creative destruction in the economy. They like the creative part but not the destruction. In addition they have the largest level of public debt as a percent of GDP in the developed world, currently about 220% of GDP. High levels of household and corporate savings partially offset this debt, but in many ways the deck looks stacked against Japan going forward long term.

Having said this, it has looked this way for a long time and yet somehow they continue to maintain a wealthy prosperous society. Financial analysts have been calling for the imminent demise of Japan for decades--none of this is new--and it has not yet happened. Japan has a unique culture and, in spite of its obvious economic challenges, it may continue to surprise us in the future.

Garland Whizzer
And this, I think, is key.

They faced extraordinary conditions, and they have muddled on.

Conventional wisdom said that they were a disaster, a trainwreck. Then we had our own financial crash in 2008, and the side effects of that continue ...

Ask me in 20 years how we did.

Valuethinker
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:12 am

alex_686 wrote:
Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:25 am
protagonist wrote:
Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:34 pm
And yet, despite the 28 year steady and dramatic decline, if you look at economic indicators, health care, longevity, unemployment, etc., Japan is still doing quite well by pretty much all parameters. I find that interesting. Maybe not as well as in 1989, but they are still quite prosperous.

The 1929 crash in the US was devastating. In fact, even the 2008 crash had quite severe implications prior to recovery.
Let me throw out a couple of thoughts.

Part of the reason for the decline in stocks is a rational response to Japan's heavy bias towards domestic investment. Japaneses investors heavily favored safe investments like bank deposits. Low risk and low return. This was funneled to Japaneses corporations for cheap financing which helped the rebuilding after WWII.
International investment by individuals was practically unknown post 1945. I don't remember when Japan removed foreign exchange controls (early 60s?) but essentially there were limited options for savings in most countries. Government bonds, bank deposits, insurance company products. Stock investing was rare.
The P/E ratio is a relative measure. A P/E of 90 is not high in and by itself. It must be compared to something else. It also contains expected growth and expected risk. So on one leg you have savings accounts yielding 0% and on the other hand a growing low risk stock market than a P/E of 90 starts looking rational. Remember, because of Japan's domestic bias they did not look at the P/E ratios of other countries.
I remember a lot of presentations at the time about this. The PE was not 90 if taken using western accounting, and stripping out cross holdings. It was more like 30x i.e. about twice the US market. On a Price-to-Cash-Flow basis it was something similar.

What was true was the quality of the profits was low. Businesses were making more money off their financing activities than their actual operations.

There are similarities to the dot com bubble. What was not obvious to many (including me) was how much the earnings of the tech sector at the time (1999-2000) were turning venture capital (and the c. 3 trillion dollars of telecoms and media company debt issued) into orders for hardware, software and services. There was also vendor finance of purchases-- that caught out Nortel, Lucent etc. when the market turned down.
Now, let us turn to the comment that Protagonist makes. Does one value stability or growth? Japan valued stability. In the US when we faced economic imbalances we tend to take swift action. The Saving and Loan crisis of the 80s or the real estate crash of 2008. Swiftly shut down the bad banks so the good banks can thrive. Japan went the opposite direction, changing accounting rules so bankrupt banks could continue to lend money to zombie firms.
You could though mention the Money Center Banks and the Third World Loans debacle of the 1970s-80s. That took over a decade to work out. In other words, the scale of the problem was too large to resolve in one big hit.

I agree the US Federal Government took strong action re the FSLIC resolution company in the S&L period, and in the post Lehman bailout. That plus the general revival of financial markets (partly due to Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve) allowed the sale of assets (the Maiden Lane vehicles, the bad mortgages on the balance sheet of AIG) at a profit.

So part of the issue with Japanese zombie banks & insurers was their scale -- Too Big To Fail. Over to the non-financial side of the economy. I agree that Japan was prepared to keep things going that should have had the plug pulled. But the same criticism has been raised against US Chapter 11. And faced with some similar dislocations, such as the failure of Chrysler and GM (which would have pulled down Ford's supplier chain, and thus Ford as well) the US government did intervene.

I think the lesson of Japan, such as it is, is that if you let a bubble get too big, when it blows it is going to cripple your economy. We appear to have dodged the bullet - this time.
This lead to social stability. It also poured resources into dead end industries.
Which ones were you thinking of? Yes Japan struggled to move from the manufacturing world where a company like Sony, with highly innovative products and design, was dominant to one where the Chinese and Koreans had lower cost production, and it was about ideas and intellectual property, software etc. In other words Apple triumphed, not Sony.

That was the Japanese problem. They pioneered high quality consumer manufacture in the post war years. Thus destroying all the US TV suppliers, for example. Or making huge inroads in cars.
Japan's youth faces a hard landscape. They are more likely to have a temporary contract job instead of those lifetime jobs. So their skills tend to be less developed. With lower earning power they are less likely to live on their own, they delay marriage, etc. So peak underneath the hood and things are don't look so good.
I don't think anyone would say Japan is in great shakes. It's just they have done a lot better than a superficial look at the country, or conventional wisdom, would suggest.

One possibility is that as population ages, real wages start to rise. At the very least, the Japanese are doing impressive things in robotics.

alex_686
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by alex_686 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:37 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:12 am
Which ones were you thinking of? Yes Japan struggled to move from the manufacturing world where a company like Sony, with highly innovative products and design, was dominant to one where the Chinese and Koreans had lower cost production, and it was about ideas and intellectual property, software etc. In other words Apple triumphed, not Sony.
In general I am thinking about Schumpeter's creative destruction and that Japan did not fully embrace the harsh reality. However, as you point out, it is a hard reality to deal with.

Specially I am thinking about Japan's bank regulations. They held assets at book value, not market value. As long as the company could make its loan payments the loans could be classified as "good" assets on the books, allowing the bank to remain solvent. If a company could not make its loan payment, banks would often lend additional money so the company could make the loan payment, allowing the fiction that the loans were good and the bank was solvent. There was some additionally complexity with cross holdings in stock between companies in bank, and that equity was also held at book value.

It was like Wile E. Coyote, you can continue to run in mid-air as long as you don't look down. I don't want to be too harsh on Japan. Hindsight is always 20/20 and I culturally favor growth over stability.

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nedsaid
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:55 am

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:50 pm
alex_686 wrote:
This lead to social stability. It also poured resources into dead end industries. Japan's youth faces a hard landscape. They are more likely to have a temporary contract job instead of those lifetime jobs. So their skills tend to be less developed. With lower earning power they are less likely to live on their own, they delay marriage, etc. So peak underneath the hood and things are don't look so good.
In addition Japan is the poster child for the greatest demographic challenge in all the developed world going forward. They have both a decreasing total population and a rapidly aging one. Cultural barriers to foreclosing on loans, firing employees, etc., decrease overall economic productivity. They accept much less than the US the idea of creative destruction in the economy. They like the creative part but not the destruction. In addition they have the largest level of public debt as a percent of GDP in the developed world, currently about 220% of GDP. High levels of household and corporate savings partially offset this debt, but in many ways the deck looks stacked against Japan going forward long term.

Having said this, it has looked this way for a long time and yet somehow they continue to maintain a wealthy prosperous society. Financial analysts have been calling for the imminent demise of Japan for decades--none of this is new--and it has not yet happened. Japan has a unique culture and, in spite of its obvious economic challenges, it may continue to surprise us in the future.

Garland Whizzer
Garland, my understanding is that the Japanese Central Bank has bought up a lot of the Japanese debt. In essence, they are making an interest free loan to themselves that really doesn't need to be paid back. This is also helped by their very strong Yen and a large trade surplus. I suppose in answer to their demographic problem that Japan will become a nation of robots.
A fool and his money are good for business.

jbolden1517
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by jbolden1517 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:19 pm

Just want to point out that per capita Japan is doing quite well
Image

the reason people think of Japan as stagnant is the large stock indexes have been stagnant and the number of working age adults is rapidly decreasing:
Image

FWIW fertility seems to be slowly increasing. Population likely drops for several more generations even if fertility is fully recovering at a slow pace but it might be happening. Image

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by garlandwhizzer » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm

One final comment about Japan's shrinking work force and the challenges it places on future economic growth. Unemployment in Japan is essentially nonexistent, currently 2.8%. There are two potential solutions to this which they could use. One is to increase work force participation by women, which is lower in Japan relative to the US probably for cultural reasons. That is changing with Abe in control and Japan currently has an increasing participation of women entering the workplace. The other potential source of new labor is from increased legal immigration to provide new workers from nearby Asian countries where there are plenty of young well-educated and skilled workers looking for good jobs. Again this runs a bit counter to Japanese cultural values. Japan believes in taking care of Japanese first and foremost and preserving their unique culture. It is historically a much more homogenous society with no great influx of foreigners at any point in their history. It has not been a melting pot of different cultures, religions, and national origins as is the case the US for example. They can however change this if the macroeconomic situation requires it.

Garland Whizzer

jbolden1517
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by jbolden1517 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:38 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm
One final comment about Japan's shrinking work force and the challenges it places on future economic growth. Unemployment in Japan is essentially nonexistent, currently 2.8%. There are two potential solutions to this which they could use. One is to increase work force participation by women, which is lower in Japan relative to the US probably for cultural reasons. That is changing with Abe in control and Japan currently has an increasing participation of women entering the workplace. The other potential source of new labor is from increased legal immigration to provide new workers from nearby Asian countries where there are plenty of young well-educated and skilled workers looking for good jobs. Again this runs a bit counter to Japanese cultural values. Japan believes in taking care of Japanese first and foremost and preserving their unique culture. It is historically a much more homogenous society with no great influx of foreigners at any point in their history. It has not been a melting pot of different cultures, religions, and national origins as is the case the US for example. They can however change this if the macroeconomic situation requires it.
The macro economic system requires it as much as it is going to. A decrease in the labor force is likely going to continue to increase per capita wealth. I don't see anything beyond that. I think Japan would choose virtually any other option than mass immigration. Massive subsidy for children would likely work. Workplace quotas for women who have had children combined with discrimination in favor of fathers. I can think of dozens of policies that they would use before immigration. In the end they have lots of foreign assets. They still mostly run surpluses so it is growing. I suspect almost no chance on immigration.

Valuethinker
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:32 pm

jbolden1517 wrote:
Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:38 pm
garlandwhizzer wrote:
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm
One final comment about Japan's shrinking work force and the challenges it places on future economic growth. Unemployment in Japan is essentially nonexistent, currently 2.8%. There are two potential solutions to this which they could use. One is to increase work force participation by women, which is lower in Japan relative to the US probably for cultural reasons. That is changing with Abe in control and Japan currently has an increasing participation of women entering the workplace. The other potential source of new labor is from increased legal immigration to provide new workers from nearby Asian countries where there are plenty of young well-educated and skilled workers looking for good jobs. Again this runs a bit counter to Japanese cultural values. Japan believes in taking care of Japanese first and foremost and preserving their unique culture. It is historically a much more homogenous society with no great influx of foreigners at any point in their history. It has not been a melting pot of different cultures, religions, and national origins as is the case the US for example. They can however change this if the macroeconomic situation requires it.
The macro economic system requires it as much as it is going to. A decrease in the labor force is likely going to continue to increase per capita wealth. I don't see anything beyond that. I think Japan would choose virtually any other option than mass immigration. Massive subsidy for children would likely work.
I don't think there is much evidence subsidies to have babies works. Changes timing but not numbers of children per woman.

That is empirically true, but Gary Becker already explained why. Children are a huge opportunity cost. In a modern society w high female participation in the formal labour force, women will defer having children. That's also true of middle class fields that require more education. And they can defer marriage because they can support themselves.

Thus they start having children later, if at all, and have fewer children.

What does work, pace France and Sweden, is things like universal daycare and limits on working hours. If men take on a greater share of childrearing and women can continue w their careers then women desire to have more children. Whereas in Italy and Spain even before the economic crisis that's not the case, and they have among the lowest birth rates in the world. Ditto Russia.

Japanese men are far more involved w their children than they were 50 years ago, but the long hours culture and the tradition of wives doing the housework and looking after parents continues.

The other solution is that certain religious minorities have lots of kids. The ultra orthodox in Israel or the Mormons in the USA for example. Neither is going to happen in Japan.

Workplace quotas for women who have had children combined with discrimination in favor of fathers. I can think of dozens of policies that they would use before immigration. In the end they have lots of foreign assets. They still mostly run surpluses so it is growing. I suspect almost no chance on immigration.
I agree mass immigration is unlikely. It would have to be really mass though mathematically to outweigh a low total fertility ratio. There is more informal immigration than is recorded though.

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nedsaid
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:57 am

I will say that Japan is not a very diverse society. If you are an outsider, it is obvious, you just stick out like a sore thumb. Fortunately, they are good to visitors and tolerant of cultural blunders that visitors make. Immigration would be difficult, particularly in light of the hard feelings generated by World War II. Ethnically, the most logical source of immigration would be from Korea, as my foggy memory recalls that Japanese are largely ethnically Korean. But language and culture have diverged enough that even this is not too likely. Japan and Korea have historically not been the best of neighbors. I just don't see Chinese immigration as China and Japan are not exactly friends. Pacific Islanders, Malays, Vietnamese, Filipinos, are ethnically different enough from the Japanese that they would likely always be outsiders in a Japanese society.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by alex_686 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:04 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:57 am
Ethnically, the most logical source of immigration would be from Korea, as my foggy memory recalls that Japanese are largely ethnically Korean.
This is a bit of a touchy subject. There are still a lot of bad feelings from WWII. There are Koreans who have lived in Japan for decades, are highly integrated, and still struggle to get citizenship. Many Japaneses still think that being Japaneses is a thing defined by blood.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:14 am

alex_686 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:04 am
nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:57 am
Ethnically, the most logical source of immigration would be from Korea, as my foggy memory recalls that Japanese are largely ethnically Korean.
This is a bit of a touchy subject. There are still a lot of bad feelings from WWII. There are Koreans who have lived in Japan for decades, are highly integrated, and still struggle to get citizenship. Many Japaneses still think that being Japaneses is a thing defined by blood.
There are a lot of touchy subjects there, for example you just don't get into a discussion about how the atomic bombs saved many US and Japanese lives. There is an ethnic minority there, I forget their name, that are pretty well despised. That is another thing that just is not talked about. As far as WWII, as far as I know, it is the first war that Japan ever lost. Shoot, they even beat the Russians in a famous navy battle about 1904-1905. WWII was a humiliating loss and yet it amazes me that for the most part there are good feelings between Japanese and Americans. When I was there in 2002, I found the Japanese to be exceedingly gracious. I heard one guy yell, "Yankee go home" and that was about it.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by chuckb84 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:27 am

Top99% wrote:
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:30 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Sun Aug 20, 2017 2:19 am
What was actually happening in 1989 which made the world see Japan as such an amazing investment?
IIRC at one point the value of real estate in Tokyo exceeded the valuation of all US real estate. In short, the Japanese bubble made the Tech Bubble look like a value fest.
Sometime around the peak of the Japanese stock bubble, I asked a friend from Japan to tell me a Japanese joke, thinking that you learn a lot about the culture from their humor. His reply was something like "We don't really do jokes" but the example he gave was to go to the most expensive part of Tokyo, take a 10,000 Yen note, crumple it up as small as you can, then drop it on the ground. "It won't pay for the ground it covers". And, in a dark way, I guess this was funny?

Don't know if that was ever literally true, and the way I remember it was that ALL of Japan, about the size of California had the real estate value of all of the US.

alex_686
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by alex_686 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:28 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:14 am
WWII was a humiliating loss and yet it amazes me that for the most part there are good feelings between Japanese and Americans. When I was there in 2002, I found the Japanese to be exceedingly gracious. I heard one guy yell, "Yankee go home" and that was about it.
Let me a bit more specific. There is a fair amount of bad blood between Japan and Korea. Every few years Japan and Korea almost get into a trade war, kick each other diplomats out, etc. There has been a long history of wars between them. There is disputed territory. In 1910 Japan annexed Korea a colony, with exploration, "comfort girls", war crimes, etc. Some Koreans don't think that Japan have sufficiently apologized for their past actions. Japan keeps opening up old wounds, for example equivocating if the forced prostitution of comfort girls was that bad.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:29 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:57 am
I will say that Japan is not a very diverse society. If you are an outsider, it is obvious, you just stick out like a sore thumb. Fortunately, they are good to visitors and tolerant of cultural blunders that visitors make. Immigration would be difficult, particularly in light of the hard feelings generated by World War II. Ethnically, the most logical source of immigration would be from Korea, as my foggy memory recalls that Japanese are largely ethnically Korean.
AFAIK there was a migration of the Han people (or the previous inhabitants of China) out onto the islands. So yes, the Japanese would have come from Korea. But this is before written history, AFAIK, so it is based upon genetic and/or anthropological evidence.

The Ainu, (or hairy people as I think they are known in Japan?), in Hokkaido, are the original inhabitants of Japan-- their version of our Amerindians (who are probably much later in history-- the most recent Asian arrivals in prehistory are the Eskimos in Canada and Alaska). Not sure what the evidence says about their origin, but presumably a previous wave of migration (maybe the first) out of Asia. In the same way the Meo/ Hmong hill tribes of Laos and Vietnam are the remnants of previous peoples, before the Han Chinese overran those countries a few thousand years ago.

But language and culture have diverged enough that even this is not too likely. Japan and Korea have historically not been the best of neighbors. I just don't see Chinese immigration as China and Japan are not exactly friends.
There is a substantial Korean minority in Japan, left over from the days of colonization (1905-1945). They face heavy discrimination. In Japan, private detectives are used to check out your offspring's intended, to make sure they do not have any Korean blood or the blood of the untouchables (leather workers etc.).

This is not about how the faces look, this is about ancestry.

South Korea would not, now, generate many immigrants for Japan. North Korea could but that would require a collapse of the current government. China probably would not in the sense the demographics are too similar, and Chinese migrate to cities, not offshore.

Interestingly it was not always so. Besides the Japanese descended populations in Hawaii, California & the W. Coast, BC which we know about, there is a large Japanese-descended minority in Brazil and in Peru (in fact the leader of Peru, Alberto Fujimori, was of that community). After Japan opened to the world there was out migration because Japan was so poor (but America and Canada passed laws against it, which stung the Japanese at home and was part of the turning inward which led to WW2).
Pacific Islanders, Malays, Vietnamese, Filipinos, are ethnically different enough from the Japanese that they would likely always be outsiders in a Japanese society.
There are Filipinos in Japan, not all legal. Again, it's not about appearance-- it's about ancestry. The Japanese have a very strong sense of racial uniqueness. None of these places are likely to have millions who would want to move to Japan.

Immigration cannot transform the demographics of a country unless it is on really serious scale. Immigrants tend to converge on the fertility ratio of the majority within 2 generations. Even Australia and Canada, small countries with large immigration populations (roughly 1/3 and 1/4 born outside the country, I believe) still have rapidly aging population profiles. 5 or 10 million Asians wouldn't transform Japan's demographics, even if they were all young enough to have children. We tend to think otherwise because of countries like Israel, but that was a phenomenon of the first 2 decades or so of the Israeli state, not since, with the exception of the diaspora of Russians pre and post 1990 (about 1 million I think).

alex_686
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by alex_686 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:36 am

chuckb84 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:27 am
Don't know if that was ever literally true, and the way I remember it was that ALL of Japan, about the size of California had the real estate value of all of the US.
It was kind of true and kind of rational. California and Japan are about the same size. A good chunk of that land is mountainous, so not very usable. California has 40m people, Japan has 120m. Land value in theory should be the time discounted (risk adjusted interest) rents of that land. Since long term bonds are around 0% this implies that the discount rate should be very very low so prices should be very high.

On the irrational side, asset prices went wonky in the 80s. Banks were offering 100 year mortgages. Part of the trick was that the mortgages required that the children take on the mortgage when their parents died.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:55 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:14 am
alex_686 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:04 am
nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:57 am
Ethnically, the most logical source of immigration would be from Korea, as my foggy memory recalls that Japanese are largely ethnically Korean.
This is a bit of a touchy subject. There are still a lot of bad feelings from WWII. There are Koreans who have lived in Japan for decades, are highly integrated, and still struggle to get citizenship. Many Japaneses still think that being Japaneses is a thing defined by blood.
There are a lot of touchy subjects there, for example you just don't get into a discussion about how the atomic bombs saved many US and Japanese lives.
That is disputed. I happen to agree with you, but it is disputed. The best case for was made by Paul Fussell, later a well known critic and writer, who was a US Army lieutenant in Germany waiting to be despatched for the invasion of Japan -- I am pretty sure that one could find that online.

https://www.uio.no/.../Fussel%20-%20tha ... atom%20bom...

Entitled Thank God for the Atom Bomb. In my life, I have met several men who would have died on the beaches of Kyushu or Tokyo Bay, but who did not do so.
There is an ethnic minority there, I forget their name, that are pretty well despised. That is another thing that just is not talked about.
The Ainu. In Hokkaido. Literally (from memory) "the hairy people". Whether they are worse treated than the North American or South American aboriginal peoples is a moot point. Probably not worse treated than Australia's aborigines.
As far as WWII, as far as I know, it is the first war that Japan ever lost.
Admiral Perry is remembered for having opened up Japan, so a good thing. But they did lose to him. Before that, Japan was closed for 3 centuries to outsiders.
Shoot, they even beat the Russians in a famous navy battle about 1904-1905.
Part of the greater Russo-Japanese war, to decide influence over China. The Siege of Port Arthur was actually the main event, the Battle of Tsushima Straits was an afterthought-- the Russian fleet made the journey from the Baltic and Murmansk, around the Cape of Good Hope, but arrived after the fall of Port Arthur (in China itself) the main Russian naval base. They tried to slip by Japan to get to Vladivostok but were defeated and destroyed in a running battle. Until that time, it was held that non-whites could not defeat a white power in a modern war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tsushima

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Port_Arthur

the lessons (about the deadliness of entrenchments backed by barbed wire and machine guns) of the Siege were not fully absorbed by the western powers, despite many of them having military observers there during the war (the deadliness of artillery against entrenched troops was overestimated, and the Japanese had by sheer force of shock action, triumphed against Russian entrenchments).

Japan was allied with Great Britain at the time (who built many of their warships). Thus, the Russian Baltic Fleet was refused access to British coaling stations, and the use of the Suez Canal. They arrived exhausted from probably the longest continuous sea voyage in history to a battle (longer even than the US forces converging on Leyte Gulf in WW2). Japan then allied itself with the Allies in WW1 and received Germany's colonies in the Marianas Islands and in China as a prize thereafter (a Japanese destroyer squadron also participated in anti submarine warfare in the Mediterranean, fighting Austro-Hungarian subs).

It was the Western Powers refusal to acknowledge non-white peoples as equals at the Treaty of Versailles, as well as other slights such as the Alien Immigration Act in the US (1924) which prohibited non-white immigration, that the Japanese took as a slight and a loss of honour, and was part of sending Japan on its long road to WW2 (via its attempt to dominate China).

https://www.amazon.com/Fleet-That-Had-D ... B00VUZLSN2

on the road to Tsushima

https://www.amazon.com/Kaigun-Strategy- ... rds=kaigun

dense, scholarly and excellent on the rise of the Imperial Japanese Navy, its victories over first the Chinese then the Russians, and the fatal path of logic and belief that led it to the attack on Pearl Harbor (a repeat of the surprise attack on the Russian Pacific Fleet in Port Arthur, which began the 1904-05 Russo-Japanese War).

In 1904-05 they used torpedos. In 1941 they used torpedo bombers.

https://www.amazon.com/At-Dawn-We-Slept ... n+we+slept

I believe that is pretty good on the historical origins of the Pearl Harbor attack, from a Japanese perspective.
WWII was a humiliating loss and yet it amazes me that for the most part there are good feelings between Japanese and Americans. When I was there in 2002, I found the Japanese to be exceedingly gracious. I heard one guy yell, "Yankee go home" and that was about it.
As a child I knew a woman whose husband, a missionary, died in the Hokkaido ferry disaster. The worst single event maritime disaster in history, I believe. Her son, white, was sent to play with General MacArthur's son when Macarthur was Governor General-- there was no one else to play with him.

I think the Japanese expected to be obliterated by the American Occupation. It was, for them, literally the end of the Emperor, and therefore the end of God, the Showa, and therefore the End of the World and of the Japanese Race.

When that did not happen, for the Japanese it was like being saved from extinction. They revered MacArthur for this. Thus the American approach to Japan, and to Germany, which was to avoid the mistakes made at the Treaty of Versailles in 1919*, was responsible for turning those countries into long term allies and friends**.

* precisely the mistakes Woodrow Wilson had fought against. The liberal view of international politics, that it had to come from the best parts of humans, and not the European realpolitik approach imposed in 1815 after Napoleon, and perfected by Bismark, nor the narrowly nationalist and vengeful agenda of the victorious powers in 1919 (which was modeled on the German Peace Treaty imposed on Russia in March 1918, the Treaty of Brest Litovsk).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Brest-Litovsk

** and the Marshall Plan. Opinions differ on its economic effects, but as a confidence booster than "primed the pump" of European economic recovery it must have been absolutely key. Ironically General Marshall, then Secretary of State, was hounded from office on criticisms of sympathy to communism-- I believe he died embittered. Now, for winning World War 2 alongside FDR, and then for the Marshall Plan, we revere him as one of America's greatest generals and statesmen.

The Korean War played the same role for Japan that the Marshall Plan did for devastated Europe.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:58 am

alex_686 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:36 am
chuckb84 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:27 am
Don't know if that was ever literally true, and the way I remember it was that ALL of Japan, about the size of California had the real estate value of all of the US.
It was kind of true and kind of rational. California and Japan are about the same size. A good chunk of that land is mountainous, so not very usable. California has 40m people, Japan has 120m. Land value in theory should be the time discounted (risk adjusted interest) rents of that land. Since long term bonds are around 0% this implies that the discount rate should be very very low so prices should be very high.

On the irrational side, asset prices went wonky in the 80s. Banks were offering 100 year mortgages. Part of the trick was that the mortgages required that the children take on the mortgage when their parents died.
100 year mortgages make sense in the same way 100 year government bonds do (if there is presumed to be no credit risk on that government-- UK, Canada, Australia, USA etc.). It's actually a form of shared equity [EDIT in the sense that it is perpetual; not in having the equity upside-- if you have a very long term fixed liability, then it could be used to hedge that as the duration of say 1-2% coupon bond must be c. 20-25 years?]. The existence of a fixed asset as collateral gives confidence of recoverability in the case of default.

The trick was that land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was valued at the same amount as all the land in California. *That* was the comparison bandied around- -I have no idea if it was true.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:24 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:29 am

AFAIK there was a migration of the Han people (or the previous inhabitants of China) out onto the islands. So yes, the Japanese would have come from Korea. But this is before written history, AFAIK, so it is based upon genetic and/or anthropological evidence.

The Ainu, (or hairy people as I think they are known in Japan?), in Hokkaido, are the original inhabitants of Japan-- their version of our Amerindians (who are probably much later in history-- the most recent Asian arrivals in prehistory are the Eskimos in Canada and Alaska). Not sure what the evidence says about their origin, but presumably a previous wave of migration (maybe the first) out of Asia. In the same way the Meo/ Hmong hill tribes of Laos and Vietnam are the remnants of previous peoples, before the Han Chinese overran those countries a few thousand years ago.
Yes, yes. The Ainu are the people group that I was thinking of. My understanding is this just is not discussed in Japan. For a visitor, discussing this would be verboten. Just like the atomic bombings.
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:40 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:55 am
nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:14 am

There are a lot of touchy subjects there, for example you just don't get into a discussion about how the atomic bombs saved many US and Japanese lives.
That is disputed. I happen to agree with you, but it is disputed. The best case for was made by Paul Fussell, later a well known critic and writer, who was a US Army lieutenant in Germany waiting to be despatched for the invasion of Japan -- I am pretty sure that one could find that online.

https://www.uio.no/.../Fussel%20-%20tha ... atom%20bom...

Entitled Thank God for the Atom Bomb. In my life, I have met several men who would have died on the beaches of Kyushu or Tokyo Bay, but who did not do so.
In my view, the alternative view that the atomic bombings were not necessary is revisionist history. I think of these sort of people like the holocaust deniers. If you talk to actual US Military veterans of that era, it is almost 100% agreement that the A-Bombs saved many, many lives.

It isn't 100% clear that an invasion of Japan could be pulled off. People who fought their way from Normandy to the Elbe River and saw many of their comrades die in battle where not eager to then do it all over again in Japan. Bloody battles were fought in the island hopping campaigns and the casualties at Iwo Jima and Okinawa were horrific. Also the Kamikazes did a fair amount of damage to our naval fleet. As we got closer and closer to the homeland, the Japanese got ever more fanatical. It was pretty much a fight to the death, not many Japanese surrendered. We had every reason to believe that the Japanese would fight to the last man, woman, and child; sort of a national hari-kari. We saw civilians in Okinawa jumping to their deaths over fear of how they would be treated by American occupiers. Even after all the horrific bombings of Japanese cities with conventional bombs, the resolve to fight had not ended. The high command wanted to fight on even after the first A-Bomb.

The A-Bombs were horrible. I spent hours going through the museum in Hiroshima only to discover there was yet another wing of the museum. I had enough blood and gore and didn't want to see any more. A gracious gentleman saw me on the train and knew I was coming to visit the Peace Park and the Museum. He showed me around the Peace Park a bit, helped me get the ticket to the museum, and made sure that I had the proper English language headphones for the self-guided tour. He and his mom visited relatives out of town and thus missed getting killed in the bombing. He lost family members and siblings in the bombing. Not much to say, I profusely thanked him for his kindness and graciousness. Just no way you are going to have this discussion with a fellow like that. I was very touched by his helpfulness and his personal story.
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:22 pm

alex_686 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:36 am
chuckb84 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:27 am
Don't know if that was ever literally true, and the way I remember it was that ALL of Japan, about the size of California had the real estate value of all of the US.
It was kind of true and kind of rational. California and Japan are about the same size. A good chunk of that land is mountainous, so not very usable. California has 40m people, Japan has 120m. Land value in theory should be the time discounted (risk adjusted interest) rents of that land. Since long term bonds are around 0% this implies that the discount rate should be very very low so prices should be very high.

On the irrational side, asset prices went wonky in the 80s. Banks were offering 100 year mortgages. Part of the trick was that the mortgages required that the children take on the mortgage when their parents died.
I used to joke that the Japanese bought Hawaii from the Americans and then after everything crashed, the Americans bought it back at bargain prices!!

Of course, this was an exaggeration but Japanese did buy a lot of Hawaiian real estate as well as many properties elsewhere in the United States. I remember the buzz when Japanese interests bought the Rockefeller Center in NYC. I also remember that it seemed wherever you went you saw throngs of Japanese tourists everywhere! Japan was the number two economy in the world and was going to overtake the United States.

Fast forward 20 years and you see the same behavior from the Chinese. Heavy investment in the United States, buying of properties, hordes of Chinese Tourists everywhere, China is now the number two economy in the world. I think I have seen this movie before!

Maybe we will sell Hawaii to the Chinese and buy it back at bargain prices! As the late great Yogi Berra would say, "It is deja vu all over again."
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:05 am

I guess the thread itself was a bubble and finally burst. :D
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Theoretical » Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:39 am

Nedsaid's comment about China and Japan got me thinking. How similar are the Chinese government-invested megacorps to Japan's Zaibatsu oligopoly approach from the 1980s.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by SimpleGift » Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:59 am

Theoretical wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:39 am
Nedsaid's comment about China and Japan got me thinking. How similar are the Chinese government-invested megacorps to Japan's Zaibatsu oligopoly approach from the 1980s.
Quite a few striking similarities actually. Much like the Japanese banking system of the 1980s and 1990s, China’s government and state-owned banks refuse to let unprofitable companies die, keeping them on life support with new credit — resulting in zombie corporations that drag on economic growth.

This article has an excellent comparison of the situation of Japan in the 1990s and China today:
Zombies Once Destroyed Japan’s Economy — Now They’re Infecting China’s
Cordially, Todd

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:25 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:40 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:55 am
nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:14 am

There are a lot of touchy subjects there, for example you just don't get into a discussion about how the atomic bombs saved many US and Japanese lives.
That is disputed. I happen to agree with you, but it is disputed. The best case for was made by Paul Fussell, later a well known critic and writer, who was a US Army lieutenant in Germany waiting to be despatched for the invasion of Japan -- I am pretty sure that one could find that online.

https://www.uio.no/.../Fussel%20-%20tha ... atom%20bom...

Entitled Thank God for the Atom Bomb. In my life, I have met several men who would have died on the beaches of Kyushu or Tokyo Bay, but who did not do so.
In my view, the alternative view that the atomic bombings were not necessary is revisionist history. I think of these sort of people like the holocaust deniers. If you talk to actual US Military veterans of that era, it is almost 100% agreement that the A-Bombs saved many, many lives.

It isn't 100% clear that an invasion of Japan could be pulled off. People who fought their way from Normandy to the Elbe River and saw many of their comrades die in battle where not eager to then do it all over again in Japan. Bloody battles were fought in the island hopping campaigns and the casualties at Iwo Jima and Okinawa were horrific. Also the Kamikazes did a fair amount of damage to our naval fleet. As we got closer and closer to the homeland, the Japanese got ever more fanatical. It was pretty much a fight to the death, not many Japanese surrendered. We had every reason to believe that the Japanese would fight to the last man, woman, and child; sort of a national hari-kari. We saw civilians in Okinawa jumping to their deaths over fear of how they would be treated by American occupiers. Even after all the horrific bombings of Japanese cities with conventional bombs, the resolve to fight had not ended. The high command wanted to fight on even after the first A-Bomb.
All this is true.

The revisionist case rests upon the knowledge that:

- the Japanese were debating surrender *before* the bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki-- the War Cabinet was split

- the US knew this because we could read their codes

- The Japanese War Cabinet was unclear what had happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. News was slow leaking out. In any case, the Tokyo firestorm had actually killed more people than either attack. Given that they existence of the Japanese race was at stake, in their minds, another couple of cities destroyed did not scare them

- Due to American submarines, aircraft and mines and their impact on shipping (the role of mines was kept classified until the 1980s - the US Navy has always had a thing against mines and mine warfare, because it doesn't fit into the 3 career tracks in the USN: carrier air, surface warfare, submarines; the USN remains weak in mine warfare) Japan's economy had ceased to function. Most of Gen Curtis E. Lemay's bombing was simply "making the rubble bounce" on factories that were no longer functional. And mass starvation beckoned. The War Cabinet was aware of all this

- It is argued that what actually tipped the Japanese into surrender was the entry into the war of the USSR on the Allied side-- invasion of Manchuria, Sakhalin Islands etc. The last Japanese hope, that the Soviet Union would ally with them against the Allies, was extinguished. Therefore surrender became inevitable, and it is in fact that which tipped the War Cabinet into a majority going for surrender-- there was then an attempted coup to prevent the transmission of the Emperor's surrender broadcast (it is worth knowing that for most Japanese, that was the first time they had ever heard the Emperor's voice)

- It is argued that Truman knew all of this, and ordered the bombs used because he knew that the USSR was the future rival of the USA in the world, and it was to "scare the Russians". That would have been consistent with Truman's personality, at least. The point was it was a demonstration to Stalin, NOT to compel the Japanese surrender-- I think the view of US war leaders was that the invasion would likely go ahead in any case (and the US had no more bombs, having expended the 3 it did have)

In any case, Stalin was not surprised when Truman told him about the bomb. The shock effect was lost. Soviet intelligence had thoroughly penetrated the Manhattan Project, and they were well up to speed with its progress and results.

Now, I should stress I don't know enough about the historiography of all this and I don't know how strong the argument above is. But it's important to understand that it doesn't contradict what you and I feel to be true. That the 2 phase invasion of Japan (Operation Olympic on Kyushu, and then Operation Coronet on Tokyo Bay) would have been an unbelievably bloody encounter, one of the worst in the history of warfare (up there with Western Front in WW1, Russian Front in WW2). Even for the victors.

(although, typically, MacArthur ignored intelligence that we now know to be true, i.e. that the Japanese had correctly divined that the invasion of Kyushu would be the first phase-- Allied intelligence was clear on the Japanese movement of forces to Kyushu, but MacArthur ordered that Operation Olympic press on regardless).

There were various non invasion schemes to compel Japan to surrender. These included spraying Japanese crops with defoliant to cause a (worse) famine. And also (I believe) the use of poison gases. Certainly the USAAF was running out of cities to destroy. I think the USN thought a naval blockade alone would do it, but given Soviet ambitions on Japanese territory (including the seizure of Hokkaido-- I believe they actually landed on the island? Then withdrew?) time was not on the US side.

Given the examples above, the Western Front in WW1, I believe that the invasion would have taken place, and the Allied troops would have fought, and died to achieve it. I don't think they would have failed-- but the cost for both sides would have been very heavy.

It was important given the later Good-Evil dialectic and narrative of the Cold War that we did not admit that we just A-bombed Japan as a signal to the Russians. But one can imagine President Truman taking just that view. I believe his later justifications are ambiguous on this point-- he changed his story somewhat. One can see why, in his judgement, that would have been in the best interests of the United States and the Free World. If we firebombed Dresden when it was already clear that we would defeat Germany (February 1945) and for little or no evident military gain, and if we had firebombed Tokyo at huge human cost, then making a demonstration of Hiroshima and Nagasaki for no other reason than to send a signal to Stalin, was certainly in our power.
The A-Bombs were horrible. I spent hours going through the museum in Hiroshima only to discover there was yet another wing of the museum. I had enough blood and gore and didn't want to see any more. A gracious gentleman saw me on the train and knew I was coming to visit the Peace Park and the Museum. He showed me around the Peace Park a bit, helped me get the ticket to the museum, and made sure that I had the proper English language headphones for the self-guided tour. He and his mom visited relatives out of town and thus missed getting killed in the bombing. He lost family members and siblings in the bombing. Not much to say, I profusely thanked him for his kindness and graciousness. Just no way you are going to have this discussion with a fellow like that. I was very touched by his helpfulness and his personal story.
Sounds a bit like my trip to Auschwitz.

As I say I don't have a sure feel of the historiography. Revisionism is inevitable in the study of history, and fairly far fetched things can emerge as theses. I am not sure where the balance of historical opinion lies on the question of President Truman and the US decision to use the bomb. It's also the case that both explanations could have factored into his decision-- a desire to push the Japanese into surrender, and a desire to "show Stalin".

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by garlandwhizzer » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:20 pm

On the question of whether the China situation now is comparable to Japan in 1999, I have to admit that I don't know. Smart people like the famous hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos, who specialized in shorting stocks like Enron, the dot coms during the tech bubble etc., has been calling for the collapse of the Chinese economy for more than 7 years now. It could collapse tomorrow but, to date, he's been wrong. Chanos has more recently been actively shorting Ali Baba whose business model he does not trust. Ali Baba as it has continued to skyrocket in price. Chants is a very bright and knowledgeable guy with an impressive long term track record but has lost quite a bit of money on that bet. Maybe he's right but just got in too soon.

It is very difficult to predict if a market is going to collapse. The US market collapsed in 2007-8, the worst since the Great Depression, and essentially no one in the financial industry foresaw that even though it occurred right under their collective noses. Chanos has predicted the collapse in China will be worse than that. Who knows? It's difficult to predict whether a collapse will occur and even harder, historically almost impossible, to predict the timing of when such an event will occur. There are also many bulls on China and its economy going forward. Nothing new. There are always naysayers and optimists calling out contradictory predictions about the future of any market. Asset prices are set in the market at levels that reflect the ongoing dynamic balance between the optimists and the pessimists. Market pricing is not perfect but, so far, it has been more accurate than the celebrated Mr. Chanos.

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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:28 pm

Valuethinker, I always felt it important when studying history to put yourself into the world as it actually was. Back in 1945, dropping the A-Bomb was not a controversial decision, it just was not. We also forget that war is in inherently immoral business but unfortunately when faced with fanatic opponents you are faced with having to do some pretty tough things. It is really easy in 2017 for people to be armchair generals setting at Starbucks sipping their latte and pass judgement on their forebears.

I just cringe when I read about the fire bombings and how Allied Air Forces pretty much leveled German and Japanese cities. We deliberately did the bombings in such a way to maximize civilian casualties. But the aggressor in a conflict sets the rules. The Luftwaffe made a huge error during the Battle of Britain targeting civilians. The Germans set the rule for warfare and the Allies pressed the new rule with a vengeance. Like the good book says, sow the wind and reap the whirlwind.

We also have to remember that the 1940's were not a time of political correctness. People were open about their prejudices. I remember the famous quote from Admiral Bill Halsey about his three priorities as fleet commander. The three priorities were kill Japs, kill Japs, and kill Japs. Today, we would be just appalled at that statement but we were at war and the objective was 100% victory. No pussyfooting around. We also forget that the war could have been lost.

So certainly, the Allies were not angels. Fortunately, the Allies decided not to repeat the mistake of the Treaty of Versailles and the punitive reparations demanded of our defeated foes. It turned out that World War II was the continuation and finish of World War I, pretty much we had a 21 year lull in between. So we essentially won the peace after winning World War II and our forebears deserve a lot of credit for that.

It was very eye opening to me to read books written by our opponents in WWII. I read Zero, which told the story of the Japanese Naval Air forces during WWII and one of the authors was a designer for the famed Zero fighter plane. Another one was written by F.W. Mellenthin, who was a staff officer in the German Army and saw a lot of action in France, North Africa, and the Russian Front. Another one was the Birth and Death of the Luftwaffe. You realize that the "good guys" weren't 100% good and the "bad guys" weren't 100% bad. A lot of people just fighting for their country despite the politics involved. I developed a grudging respect for the people who were on the other side and fought us.

Big picture, the good guys won and the bad guys lost. Even though the Soviets were our allies, it turned out they became our ideological opponents during the Cold War. Some folks feel that Roosevelt sold out eastern Europe but there was no way we were going to beat the Soviets in a land war. Patton was busting at the seams to keep the tanks rolling all the way to Moscow but that was not realistic. The Soviets had decisively defeated the German Army which probably man for man was the best army in the world at that time. The Allied Armies were excellent but there was just no way we were going to win a land war with the Soviets and the Russians. Napoleon couldn't do it, the Kaiser couldn't do it, and Hitler couldn't do it. It was just silly to think that the Allied armies would do what others could not.

The thing is, we want history to be nice and neat and resolve everything but it just isn't and doesn't. History is just very, very messy. It turns out that our heroes are flawed too.
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by nedsaid » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:39 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:20 pm
On the question of whether the China situation now is comparable to Japan in 1999, I have to admit that I don't know. Smart people like the famous hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos, who specialized in shorting stocks like Enron, the dot coms during the tech bubble etc., has been calling for the collapse of the Chinese economy for more than 7 years now. It could collapse tomorrow but, to date, he's been wrong. Chanos has more recently been actively shorting Ali Baba whose business model he does not trust. Ali Baba as it has continued to skyrocket in price. Chants is a very bright and knowledgeable guy with an impressive long term track record but has lost quite a bit of money on that bet. Maybe he's right but just got in too soon.

It is very difficult to predict if a market is going to collapse. The US market collapsed in 2007-8, the worst since the Great Depression, and essentially no one in the financial industry foresaw that even though it occurred right under their collective noses. Chanos has predicted the collapse in China will be worse than that. Who knows? It's difficult to predict whether a collapse will occur and even harder, historically almost impossible, to predict the timing of when such an event will occur. There are also many bulls on China and its economy going forward. Nothing new. There are always naysayers and optimists calling out contradictory predictions about the future of any market. Asset prices are set in the market at levels that reflect the ongoing dynamic balance between the optimists and the pessimists. Market pricing is not perfect but, so far, it has been more accurate than the celebrated Mr. Chanos.

Garland Whizzer
Garland, I am bearish on China but that doesn't mean doom and gloom. China will have a very large economy and China will be a very important country. I am not predicting collapse but more like stagnation, similar to Japan. A slow growth economy that just can't seem to roll out of bed. Slow growth, low inflation and lots of government intervention to paper over big problems in the country and to prevent mass unemployment. I also foresee a long, long bear stock market in China. It might be many years before we see new all-time highs in the Chinese stock market. Pretty much China is geared up to produce a lot of goods for export that the world may not necessarily want. One reason China needs to go for higher end value added products, just like Japan. Japanese products have a well deserved reputation for quality. China is headed that way too, there is always someone out there who can make cheap goods at even cheaper cost.
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Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Post by triceratop » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:40 pm

This topic has run its course and is locked.
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