Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
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Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... orecasters
Larry reviews a study that looks at how good many popular forecasters are at prognosticating the stock market. The results are very predictable to Bogleheads. Nonetheless an interesting read; it's interesting to see how many famous names compare to each other.
Dave
Larry reviews a study that looks at how good many popular forecasters are at prognosticating the stock market. The results are very predictable to Bogleheads. Nonetheless an interesting read; it's interesting to see how many famous names compare to each other.
Dave
- bertilak
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Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
I predict, with "lots" of confidence, the article will have no effect on overall investor behavior.Random Walker wrote:http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... orecasters
Larry reviews a study that looks at how good many popular forecasters are at prognosticating the stock market. The results are very predictable to Bogleheads. Nonetheless an interesting read; it's interesting to see how many famous names compare to each other.
Dave
Good article none the less.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
The top ten:
John Buckingham
Jack Schannep
David Nassar
David Dreman
Cabot Market Letter
Louis Navellie
Laszlo Birinyi
Steve Sjuggerud
Ken Fisher
Robert Drach
John Buckingham
Jack Schannep
David Nassar
David Dreman
Cabot Market Letter
Louis Navellie
Laszlo Birinyi
Steve Sjuggerud
Ken Fisher
Robert Drach
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
As a relative noob here, it's interesting to note that the only one I have ever heard of is Ken Fisher.rkhusky wrote:The top ten:
John Buckingham
Jack Schannep
David Nassar
David Dreman
Cabot Market Letter
Louis Navellie
Laszlo Birinyi
Steve Sjuggerud
Ken Fisher
Robert Drach
Now, who will be the top ten next year?
Get most of it right and don't make any big mistakes. All else being equal, simpler is better. Simple is as simple does.
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
I like this one as it made me laugh a little:
"The distribution of forecasting accuracy by the gurus examined in the study looks very much like the common bell curve—which is what you would expect from random outcomes. That makes it very difficult to tell if there is any skill present."
"The distribution of forecasting accuracy by the gurus examined in the study looks very much like the common bell curve—which is what you would expect from random outcomes. That makes it very difficult to tell if there is any skill present."
Get most of it right and don't make any big mistakes. All else being equal, simpler is better. Simple is as simple does.
- Portfolio7
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Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
Ken Fisher bragged for years that he was at the top of the list over the long term, not sure if that was every year or if you just combine 10 or 15 years or whatever. He has a couple books, but I found the one I read less than compelling. He's pretty much a perma-bull, so he's going to out-perform the perma-bears, but beyond that I know little. His dad was Phil Fisher, well known investor and author. I don't know if he is related to Irving Fisher of 'stocks have reached a permanently high plateau' fame.
I've also heard of Louis Navellie, but know nothing of him
I've also heard of Louis Navellie, but know nothing of him
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
Thanks for sharing and this helps explain that while I may tilt towards/away to/from asset classes based on valuations I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on a forecast being right.
Adapt or perish
- Taylor Larimore
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"Grading the Forecasters"
Bogleheads:
Many new investors (and a few old one's, too) use guru forecasters to try and market-time the stock and bond markets despite long odds, higher costs, tax-inefficiency and wasted time.
This article by Larry Swedroe shows the results of professional forecasters:
Grading the Forecasters
Best wishes.
Taylor
Many new investors (and a few old one's, too) use guru forecasters to try and market-time the stock and bond markets despite long odds, higher costs, tax-inefficiency and wasted time.
This article by Larry Swedroe shows the results of professional forecasters:
Grading the Forecasters
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: "Grading the Forecasters"
RandomWalker posted this on Friday: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=224445
- triceratop
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Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
^^ I merged Taylor's duplicate thread into here.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
You can put Nedsaid on the list of lousy forecasters.
Despite the taper tantrum in 2013 and recent interest rate increases by the Fed, intermediate and long term interest rates have barely budged. I would have expected a normalization of interest rates and that just has not happened. But on the other hand, I have opined that whiffs of deflation could be a problem. We don't have deflation but so far inflation is not a problem either and that contributes to low interest rates.
After a certain President got re-elected in 2012, I was surprised to see how strong the stock market was afterwards. Goes to show that one should not mix investing and politics.
I have also been beating the drums for Large Value. So far, except for 2016, the market has not listened. I also expected the Growth trend in the market to end with Value's great 2016, but Growth has reasserted itself in 2017.
I have been expecting International Stocks to start outperforming US Stocks but that didn't start happening until 2017. Will this trend continue? Or will the US outperform again in 2018?
I certainly have convictions about the market and market valuations but often I have been wrong or right too early. Pretty much if I make shifts in my portfolio, it is to buy cheaper assets. I do not make shifts based on market forecasts including my own.
Despite the taper tantrum in 2013 and recent interest rate increases by the Fed, intermediate and long term interest rates have barely budged. I would have expected a normalization of interest rates and that just has not happened. But on the other hand, I have opined that whiffs of deflation could be a problem. We don't have deflation but so far inflation is not a problem either and that contributes to low interest rates.
After a certain President got re-elected in 2012, I was surprised to see how strong the stock market was afterwards. Goes to show that one should not mix investing and politics.
I have also been beating the drums for Large Value. So far, except for 2016, the market has not listened. I also expected the Growth trend in the market to end with Value's great 2016, but Growth has reasserted itself in 2017.
I have been expecting International Stocks to start outperforming US Stocks but that didn't start happening until 2017. Will this trend continue? Or will the US outperform again in 2018?
I certainly have convictions about the market and market valuations but often I have been wrong or right too early. Pretty much if I make shifts in my portfolio, it is to buy cheaper assets. I do not make shifts based on market forecasts including my own.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
I also expected interest rates to start rising but I guess that is a case of me remembering that for most of my adult life interest rates for 3-5 year bonds/CDs were north of 5% and thinking that must be "normal" and where interest rates will head once things return to "normal". For the last 3+ years I have also been expecting REIT prices to fall enough to bring their yields back to my view of what is "normal".nedsaid wrote:You can put Nedsaid on the list of lousy forecasters.
Despite the taper tantrum in 2013 and recent interest rate increases by the Fed, intermediate and long term interest rates have barely budged. I would have expected a normalization of interest rates and that just has not happened. But on the other hand, I have opined that whiffs of deflation could be a problem. We don't have deflation but so far inflation is not a problem either and that contributes to low interest rates.
After a certain President got re-elected in 2012, I was surprised to see how strong the stock market was afterwards. Goes to show that one should not mix investing and politics.
I have also been beating the drums for Large Value. So far, except for 2016, the market has not listened. I also expected the Growth trend in the market to end with Value's great 2016, but Growth has reasserted itself in 2017.
I have been expecting International Stocks to start outperforming US Stocks but that didn't start happening until 2017. Will this trend continue? Or will the US outperform again in 2018?
I certainly have convictions about the market and market valuations but often I have been wrong or right too early. Pretty much if I make shifts in my portfolio, it is to buy cheaper assets. I do not make shifts based on market forecasts including my own.
Adapt or perish
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
After a certain President got elected in 2016, I was surprised to see how strong the stock market was afterwards. Goes to show that one should not mix investing and politics.nedsaid wrote:After a certain President got re-elected in 2012, I was surprised to see how strong the stock market was afterwards. Goes to show that one should not mix investing and politics.
- CyclingDuo
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Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
Great article! Combine the results with the Jack Bogle approach of "don't even peek" at your portfolio.Random Walker wrote:http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... orecasters
Larry reviews a study that looks at how good many popular forecasters are at prognosticating the stock market. The results are very predictable to Bogleheads. Nonetheless an interesting read; it's interesting to see how many famous names compare to each other.
Dave
We did like the Barton Biggs' quote about weathermen. Our local meteorologists cannot even get the 12 hour forecast correct, let alone 24, 48, 72 and beyond. Seems like Larry points out the studies that show all the forecasting going on is noise we need to tune out.
Meanwhile, we are in a bull market for equitiies....
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel |
"Pick a bushel, save a peck!" - Grandpa
Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
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