Is that one of the longest bull market?

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BogleMelon
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Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by BogleMelon » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:49 am

Just out of curiosity, how the current bull market is compared to the previous ones?
Excuse my English, it is my second language! | | "One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

alex_686
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by alex_686 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:53 am

Off the top of my head I might point to the 18 year bull market that started under Ronald Reagan. Not trying to be political, but that is the sign post that is most often associated with it.

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SimpleGift
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by SimpleGift » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:01 am

There’s different ways to define bull and bear markets — here’s one that’s inflation-adjusted:
Cordially, Todd

Keepcalm
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by Keepcalm » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:04 am

I'm waiting for the bear to come so I can possibly buy a house. No way am I buying right now. Insane out there.

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Taylor Larimore
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House or stocks?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:38 am

Keepcalm wrote:I'm waiting for the bear to come so I can possibly buy a house. No way am I buying right now. Insane out there.
Keepcalm:

It may be better in a bull market to put your money in a house rather than put it in stocks.

In a bear market it is likely that the value of your house will fall much less than the value of your stocks.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

jasc15
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by jasc15 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:44 am

Keepcalm wrote:I'm waiting for the bear to come so I can possibly buy a house. No way am I buying right now. Insane out there.
Where have you been looking? We have been looking in New Jersey and it's totally insane. We placed our first ever offer and were blown out of the water by about $40k. We visited friends on Long Island, where I grew up, and it is equally insane there. We think we are gonna sit back on the sidelines for a while now.

Jags4186
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by Jags4186 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:02 am

jasc15 wrote:
Keepcalm wrote:I'm waiting for the bear to come so I can possibly buy a house. No way am I buying right now. Insane out there.
Where have you been looking? We have been looking in New Jersey and it's totally insane. We placed our first ever offer and were blown out of the water by about $40k. We visited friends on Long Island, where I grew up, and it is equally insane there. We think we are gonna sit back on the sidelines for a while now.
I am in NJ as well. My wife really wants to start looking at houses and I just feel like we're going to be overpaying and suffering for it for years to come. Maybe I can convince her to look into a larger apartment... Houses show up and disappear on realtor.com within days for over asking.

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BogleMelon
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by BogleMelon » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:05 am

Same boat.. NJ... can't buy a house. Currently renting for undefined period. :(
Excuse my English, it is my second language! | | "One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

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Top99%
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by Top99% » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:34 am

Simplegift wrote:There’s different ways to define bull and bear markets — here’s one that’s inflation-adjusted:
Thanks for finding and sharing this chart. Inflation adjusted charts aren't all that common and this one is eye opening. The amount of time between peaks is pretty interesting. For example, The S&P only recently made it back to the 2000 inflation adjusted peak. There are some pretty long gaps between other peaks but presumably dividends helped soften the blow. What would be really interesting would be inflation adjusted total return for the S&P including dividends. This calculatorhttps://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ shows but I haven't found a chart version yet.
Adapt or perish

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SimpleGift
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by SimpleGift » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:58 am

Top99% wrote:What would be really interesting would be inflation adjusted total return for the S&P including dividends.
This is an inflation-adjusted, total return (dividends reinvested) chart from the same researcher. Note that it’s set up a little differently than the first chart, with a log scale on the vertical axis, plus the ten-year annualized return series in red.
The link above has the complete collection of these recent charts with the 5-year, 10-year, 15-year, 20-year and 30-year annualized return series — which can be interesting to peruse.
Cordially, Todd

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Top99%
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Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

Post by Top99% » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:14 am

Simplegift wrote:
Top99% wrote:What would be really interesting would be inflation adjusted total return for the S&P including dividends.
This is an inflation-adjusted, total return (dividends reinvested) chart from the same researcher. Note that it’s set up a little differently than the first chart, with a log scale on the vertical axis, plus the ten-year annualized return series in red.
The link above has the complete collection of these recent charts with the 5-year, 10-year, 15-year, 20-year and 30-year annualized return series — which can be interesting to peruse.
Thanks and these are interesting charts. It is pretty startling how much variation there can be in even 20 year rolling returns between periods. I know most Bogelheads are aware of this variation but seeing it in an inflation adjusted chart really brings that out at least for those of us who are visually oriented. Looking at these charts and the calculator also makes it easy to see how bad sequence of returns can really affect returns over one's retirement time frame.
Adapt or perish

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