Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

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TimeRunner
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KyleAAA »

Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
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LFKB
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KyleAAA wrote:Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KyleAAA »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KlangFool »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
LFKB,

<< That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising.>>

https://abc.xyz/investor/news/earnings/ ... _earnings/

Q1/2017 total revenue = 24.75 billions
Q1/2017 Google advertising revenues = 21.411 billions

KlangFool
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by PFInterest »

VTSAX.
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LFKB
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KlangFool wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
LFKB,

<< That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising.>>

https://abc.xyz/investor/news/earnings/ ... _earnings/

Q1/2017 total revenue = 24.75 billions
Q1/2017 Google advertising revenues = 21.411 billions

KlangFool
Thank you for making my point for me. They did over $10 billion in non advertising revenue in 2016 which is up from $1.4 billion in 2011. The CAGR on the non advertising revenue is 39% over the last 6 years vs 14% on the advertising piece. I expect non-advertising revenue will be larger than advertising revenue at some point in the future.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by nisiprius »

I like Google, the company. Both Google and Apple, in my opinion, keep their Faustian bargains. I dislike Microsoft because Microsoft does not. People buy Microsoft Word in hope of smooth document interoperability with other Word users, and discover that they didn't get it. People buy PlaysForSure-certified devices because Microsoft promises them their music will play for sure, and then Microsoft dumps it and release Zunes (which don't interoperate with PlaysForSure). People buy Zunes, I'm not quite sure why, but they do, and lots of them--and Microsoft drops that product line, too.

At the moment, Google is behaving well. And Google Search continues to work well, they didn't abandon it as they moved on to other businesses.

All of which is irrelevant. The Peter Lynch days, when people (including me to some extent) believed that our fan appreciation of the quality of a product was effectively a kind of "inside information," available to ordinary consumers who really used the product, and denied to the cold hard numbers people who don't touch and feel the product... are long gone.

I won't buy Apple stock just because I'm typing this on a Mac. I won't buy Google stock just because I like my Android smartphone. I won't short Microsoft stock just because I dislike Microsoft and think they are doing lots of things wrong and deserve to fail.

The speed with which even the biggest companies can collapse is breathtaking. Big companies, of course like to have you think they have, to coin a phrase, "the Strength of Gibraltar," but it ain't so. A few years of stupidity and C-level soap opera, a few dumb moves, a little bad luck, and a big company can collapse almost as quickly as a small one.

"Business means trouble. The two words are inseparable. [You're not] out of trouble until you're out of business."--F. W. Schwinn
Last edited by nisiprius on Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by qwertyjazz »

nisiprius wrote:I like Google, the company. Both Google and Apple, in my opinion, keep their Faustian bargains. I dislike Microsoft because Microsoft does not. People buy Microsoft Word in hope of smooth document interoperability with other Word users, and discover that they didn't get it. People buy PlaysForSure-certified devices because Microsoft promises them their music will play for sure, and then Microsoft dumps it and release Zunes (which don't interoperate with PlaysForSure). People buy Zunes, I'm not quite sure why, but they do, and lots of them--and Microsoft drops that product line, too.

At the moment, Google is behaving well. And Google Search continues to work well, they didn't abandon it as they moved on to other businesses.

All of which is irrelevant. The Peter Lynch days, when people (including me to some extent) believed that our fan appreciation of the quality of a product was effectively a kind of "inside information," available to ordinary consumers who really used the product, and denied to the cold hard numbers guy... are long gone.

I won't buy Apple stock just because I'm typing this on a Mac. I won't buy Google stock just because I like my Android smartphone. I won't short Microsoft stock just because I dislike Microsoft and think they are doing lots of things wrong and deserve to fail.

The speed with which even the biggest companies can collapse is breathtaking. Big companies, of course like to have you think they have, to coin a phrase, "the Strength of Gibraltar," but it ain't so. A few years of stupidity and C-level soap opera, a few dumb moves, a little bad luck, and a big company can collapse almost as quickly as a small one.

"Business means trouble. The two words are inseparable. [You're not] out of trouble until you're out of business."--F. W. Schwinn
https://www.strategy-business.com/article/17848

Interesting choice of FW Schwinn quote given the history of the company. Even Rome fell ...
But Google and search are forever (like Alta Vista)
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by HornedToad »

LFKB wrote:
KlangFool wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
LFKB,

<< That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising.>>

https://abc.xyz/investor/news/earnings/ ... _earnings/

Q1/2017 total revenue = 24.75 billions
Q1/2017 Google advertising revenues = 21.411 billions

KlangFool
Thank you for making my point for me. They did over $10 billion in non advertising revenue in 2016 which is up from $1.4 billion in 2011. The CAGR on the non advertising revenue is 39% over the last 6 years vs 14% on the advertising piece. I expect non-advertising revenue will be larger than advertising revenue at some point in the future.
You are misreading that. They did 24.75B in total revenue, of that amount, 21.4B was advertising. Google Other Revenues was listed as 3.095B.

I think Google is a good company and they have a lot of smart people, but it's very hard to say whether they will be able to adequately monotize what the smart people produce or if the moonshots will provide revenue. Google Fiber is good and forced the cable companies to match but they haven't been able to get much revenue from it. Google Cloud, IMO, is behind both AWS and Azure and it's a hard sell to use them instead of Amazon. In many ways it's like Social, where they were just too late to the market. Their self-driving cars are proceeding, but you can argue Uber is more highly motivated and dedicated to the idea so who will win out in that area as well. Lastly, they are no longer the employer of choice for top college grads and some of the drive from their engineers has slowed to work more with the 40 hour workweek pace.

I also agree with the poster who said they are worried about voice, since then there is no ads and revenue would be at serious risk.

It'll be interesting to see if they are able to do anything for all that brain power. Many projects are programmer led and undervalue the soft skills/ease of use of the product and that hurts adoption. e.g. Google Hangouts different ways of connecting with Chrome, hangout, or in Google and logging into a google account with both yahoo and gmail address and the general experience of doing so.

I think Google is in a pretty good spot, but no way would I bet the farm on them.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by nedsaid »

LFKB wrote:
I only own for individual stocks right now - Google, Amazon, Nvidia and Whole Foods (which I just bought at the beginning of the year). I am surprised by your point on growth relative to the 30x PE. The company has been growing at 20% which is far faster than the market with incredible growth opportunities in front of them. The market on average is trading at a similar PE with far less growth on average. So, if you own total stock market, are you convinced there is huge earnings growth ahead for the entire US market?
Two things to consider when looking at P/E ratios. First, lower interest rates tend towards higher P/E ratios. Interest rates are still very low by historical standards and we should not be surprised that the market P/E is higher than the norm. Also, the steadier and more consistent that a company can grow earnings, the higher of a P/E ratio the market will assign to its stock. In other words, the market will place a higher premium on earnings growth that is steady than on earnings that grow at the same rate but in a more volatile manner.

General Electric had an alleged 15% growth rate in the 1990's. The market was so impressed by the consistency of GE's growth rate that its P/E got up to 45. My best guess is that GE's growth rate was actually 8% and asset sales were timed to make earnings growth to look steadier than it really was. A whole lot of financial engineering was going on. Coke was another example of this. I wouldn't be surprised if GE and Coke had actual growth rates more like 8%.

If G/E could command a P/E of 45 when its perceived growth was 15%, that is about as much of a premium for quality as a company can get. If we got back into the era of euphoria, by that standard Google could trade at 60X earnings. If Google is growing earnings at 20% a year, the trailing market P/E is 26, and Google trades at a P/E of 28; I would say that Google's valuation is very reasonable. It all depends on Google maintaining the perception of earnings growth. When you look at P/E based upon earnings estimates, you get a P/E of 21. Not bad.

This brings me back to 2012 when LFKB and I were both new posters to the forum. There was a thread where he asked for feedback and we exchanged some posts on his thread. I was astonished at the amounts of money he was making and my guess what that he works in the High Tech industry. So he would know a lot about the industry and about Google. Shoot, he might even be an employee.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I do advise that a person who invests in individual stocks diversify across industry groups. My advice is to start out with five stocks in five different industries. Probably the optimal portfolio size is 15-20 stocks. 30 companies is probably the maximum that an individual can follow. What LFKB has right now, I don't consider diversified enough but it is a start. Fortunately, most of his money is in the broad indexes. He will have an excellent learning experience from his stocks but we will see how it works out as an investment. My own experience is that I almost matched the market performance.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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LFKB
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

HornedToad wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KlangFool wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
LFKB,

<< That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising.>>

https://abc.xyz/investor/news/earnings/ ... _earnings/

Q1/2017 total revenue = 24.75 billions
Q1/2017 Google advertising revenues = 21.411 billions

KlangFool
Thank you for making my point for me. They did over $10 billion in non advertising revenue in 2016 which is up from $1.4 billion in 2011. The CAGR on the non advertising revenue is 39% over the last 6 years vs 14% on the advertising piece. I expect non-advertising revenue will be larger than advertising revenue at some point in the future.
You are misreading that. They did 24.75B in total revenue, of that amount, 21.4B was advertising. Google Other Revenues was listed as 3.095B.

I think Google is a good company and they have a lot of smart people, but it's very hard to say whether they will be able to adequately monotize what the smart people produce or if the moonshots will provide revenue. Google Fiber is good and forced the cable companies to match but they haven't been able to get much revenue from it. Google Cloud, IMO, is behind both AWS and Azure and it's a hard sell to use them instead of Amazon. In many ways it's like Social, where they were just too late to the market. Their self-driving cars are proceeding, but you can argue Uber is more highly motivated and dedicated to the idea so who will win out in that area as well. Lastly, they are no longer the employer of choice for top college grads and some of the drive from their engineers has slowed to work more with the 40 hour workweek pace.

I also agree with the poster who said they are worried about voice, since then there is no ads and revenue would be at serious risk.

It'll be interesting to see if they are able to do anything for all that brain power. Many projects are programmer led and undervalue the soft skills/ease of use of the product and that hurts adoption. e.g. Google Hangouts different ways of connecting with Chrome, hangout, or in Google and logging into a google account with both yahoo and gmail address and the general experience of doing so.

I think Google is in a pretty good spot, but no way would I bet the farm on them.
I didn't misread it. I gave an annual number of $10 billion and you gave a quarterly revenue. $10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.

I'm not going to bet the farm on them. It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KlangFool »

LFKB wrote:
I didn't misread it. I gave an annual number of $10 billion and you gave a quarterly revenue. $10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.

I'm not going to bet the farm on them. It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.
LFKB,

<<$10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.>>

It is not for Google. And, that is the point. It is at most 12.5% of Google's revenue.

<<It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.>>

So, how many percents of your portfolio is in Google? And, when you will sell Google if it exceeds X% of your portfolio? What is X?

KlangFool
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LFKB
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KlangFool wrote:
LFKB wrote:
I didn't misread it. I gave an annual number of $10 billion and you gave a quarterly revenue. $10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.

I'm not going to bet the farm on them. It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.
LFKB,

<<$10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.>>

It is not for Google. And, that is the point. It is at most 12.5% of Google's revenue.

<<It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.>>

So, how many percents of your portfolio is in Google? And, when you will sell Google if it exceeds X% of your portfolio? What is X?

KlangFool
Your argument is that $10 billion is not a significant amount of revenue? Say that out loud to yourself and see if you still it makes sense.

Right now it makes up about 5% of my portfolio. I'll sell when I think the price accurately reflects the value of the company as judged by me, not based on some random % of my portfolio.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KlangFool »

LFKB wrote:
KlangFool wrote:
LFKB wrote:
I didn't misread it. I gave an annual number of $10 billion and you gave a quarterly revenue. $10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.

I'm not going to bet the farm on them. It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.
LFKB,

<<$10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.>>

It is not for Google. And, that is the point. It is at most 12.5% of Google's revenue.

<<It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.>>

So, how many percents of your portfolio is in Google? And, when you will sell Google if it exceeds X% of your portfolio? What is X?

KlangFool
Your argument is that $10 billion is not a significant amount of revenue? Say that out loud to yourself and see if you still it makes sense.

Right now it makes up about 5% of my portfolio. I'll sell when I think the price accurately reflects the value of the company as judged by me, not based on some random % of my portfolio.
LFKB,

10 billion out of 80 billion revenue is not a significant number. It is not big enough to improve Google's earning as a whole.

Ditto, 5% of your portfolio making 14% return per year is not a significant number. Why bother?

<< I'll sell when I think the price accurately reflects the value of the company as judged by me, not based on some random % of my portfolio.>>

Okay, will you sell when you are wrong? For example, the ad revenue remained at 80% to 90% of the Google's revenue in 5 years?

KlangFool
Blender
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by Blender »

HAL 9000 wrote:I like FTR....and I'm losing my shirt on it, however I won't sell so I get a good payout while I wait for the turnaround or bankrupcy.
Ouch. I currently wouldn't touch them with 10 foot pole. As an analysis recently summarized, "the company has aggressive accounting practices, massive debt load, dying business and bad customer service."

It would however be a great candidate to day trade if one was into that.
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LFKB
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KlangFool wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KlangFool wrote:
LFKB wrote:
I didn't misread it. I gave an annual number of $10 billion and you gave a quarterly revenue. $10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.

I'm not going to bet the farm on them. It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.
LFKB,

<<$10 billion is a significant amount of revenue for any company.>>

It is not for Google. And, that is the point. It is at most 12.5% of Google's revenue.

<<It's my largest individual hold but the majority of my portfolio is indexed.>>

So, how many percents of your portfolio is in Google? And, when you will sell Google if it exceeds X% of your portfolio? What is X?

KlangFool
Your argument is that $10 billion is not a significant amount of revenue? Say that out loud to yourself and see if you still it makes sense.

Right now it makes up about 5% of my portfolio. I'll sell when I think the price accurately reflects the value of the company as judged by me, not based on some random % of my portfolio.
LFKB,

10 billion out of 80 billion revenue is not a significant number. It is not big enough to improve Google's earning as a whole.

Ditto, 5% of your portfolio making 14% return per year is not a significant number. Why bother?

<< I'll sell when I think the price accurately reflects the value of the company as judged by me, not based on some random % of my portfolio.>>

Okay, will you sell when you are wrong? For example, the ad revenue remained at 80% to 90% of the Google's revenue in 5 years?

KlangFool
LOL. You very easily write off 40% revenue growth on $10 billion revenue with billions in profits. It has and will continue to improve Google's earnings as a whole and many of those segments could very easily be larger than the ad business in a number of years. Some of them are businesses that can change the world. You can write it off for no reason if you like but you sound a bit ridiculous. Morgan Stanley thinks Waymo alone could be valued at $70 billion. I don't know if that's right but it's one informed opinion. The rest of the non ad business is probably worth close to $100 billion or more given its growth rate and margins. It's not insignificant no many how many times you say it is.

5% of my portfolio is about $100k. So if I can double or triple that over a handful of years the I'll have made a significant amount of money. My honest assessment is that it will grow at a higher than a 14% rate. I was just giving a simple and conservative example earlier and highlighting that I think it as an extraordinary company that is trading at a market multiple while I believe in deserves a premium multiple.
Last edited by LFKB on Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
KyleAAA
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KyleAAA »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
What's the combined profit of all of those ventures and what is it as a percentage of Google's total revenue? It's a rounding error. Google does a lot of things but it only makes significant (to it) money on advertising.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Topic Author
LFKB
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:Google is a one-trick pony. Granted, it's a really big pony, but they are vulnerable to changes in how people search (think voice). I'm extremely impressed by their latest investments in their public cloud platform and believe they'll probably beat Amazon there over time. AWS is already losing its appeal in many tech circles. That said, I worry about Google's ability to execute on their plan.
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
What's the combined revenue of all of those ventures and what is it as a percentage of Google's total revenue? It's a rounding error. Google does a lot of things but it only makes significant (to it) money on advertising. Most of the non-advertising revenue is unprofitable, too.
$10 billion of revenue which is about 13% of total. Not a rounding error. I'm sure if I took 13% of your net worth away it wouldn't be a rounding error. I'm sure if I gave you $10 billion it wouldn't be a rounding error.

I also don't really understand the infatuation with calling them a one trick pony. There are few companies that are as diverse as Google in the breadth of their products and industries.

Just because a business is unprofitable doesn't mean it doesn't have value. As stated earlier Morgan Stanley thinks Wayno alone could be worth $70 billion. We value businesses off the future cash flows.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by PoeticalDeportment »

I like Google as part of a diversified portfolio of zero-dividend stocks for people with onerous tax burdens. I have no reason to suspect it will outperform on a pre-tax basis. I think as part of a diversified portfolio of zero-dividend stocks it may outperform on a tax-adjusted basis (especially if you own it when you die after holding it for many years, or if you donate it to charity after minimizing your cost basis through tax-loss harvesting).

I don't remember reading in this thread (I skimmed) that anyone recommended you try installing some ad-blocking software on your computer or smartphone. It might change the way you view Googles ad revenue.

I'm a happy google fiber customer. I use Waze rarely, but I don't see how they are making money from my doing so. They are politically active in ways that are not profitable for them (and which I find distasteful). I am happy to trust the market to determine what constitutes a good price for their stock.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KyleAAA »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
It's a lot more than a one trick pony - YouTube, Google Docs, gmail, Nest, Google Home, Chrome, Chromecast, Waymo (autonomous cars), Google Cloud, Google Fiber, Google Maps, Waze, Android, Google Play, artificial intelligence, machine learning, Google Capital, Google Ventures, etc.
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
What's the combined revenue of all of those ventures and what is it as a percentage of Google's total revenue? It's a rounding error. Google does a lot of things but it only makes significant (to it) money on advertising. Most of the non-advertising revenue is unprofitable, too.
$10 billion of revenue which is about 13% of total. Not a rounding error. I'm sure if I took 13% of your net worth away it wouldn't be a rounding error. I'm sure if I gave you $10 billion it wouldn't be a rounding error.

I also don't really understand the infatuation with calling them a one trick pony. There are few companies that are as diverse as Google in the breadth of their products and industries.

Just because a business is unprofitable doesn't mean it doesn't have value. As stated earlier Morgan Stanley thinks Wayno alone could be worth $70 billion. We value businesses off the future cash flows.
It seems google itself agrees with me, which is why it brought in a new CFO and is completely changing direction on these side projects. And as I noted, it is Google that refers to itself as a one trick pony. I didn't originate that description although I do agree with it.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
All of those ventures you mentioned that actually make money do so by finding yet more places to put advertising. My "one trick pony/large pony" quote came directly from Eric Schmitt.

Google is terrified of voice.
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
What's the combined revenue of all of those ventures and what is it as a percentage of Google's total revenue? It's a rounding error. Google does a lot of things but it only makes significant (to it) money on advertising. Most of the non-advertising revenue is unprofitable, too.
$10 billion of revenue which is about 13% of total. Not a rounding error. I'm sure if I took 13% of your net worth away it wouldn't be a rounding error. I'm sure if I gave you $10 billion it wouldn't be a rounding error.

I also don't really understand the infatuation with calling them a one trick pony. There are few companies that are as diverse as Google in the breadth of their products and industries.

Just because a business is unprofitable doesn't mean it doesn't have value. As stated earlier Morgan Stanley thinks Wayno alone could be worth $70 billion. We value businesses off the future cash flows.
It seems google itself agrees with me, which is why it brought in a new CFO and is completely changing direction on these side projects. And as I noted, it is Google that refers to itself as a one trick pony. I didn't originate that description although I do agree with it.
They are completely changing direction on the side projects? What a ridiculous exaggeration. They simply changed their reporting structure to provide more clarity to shareholders. It's not like they sidelined the projects.

When is that quote from? I believe it's 2010. Maybe you should look for something more recent.

Their recent 10-K certainly doesn't describe themselves as one trick pony.

"As our founders Larry and Sergey wrote in the original founders' letter, "Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one." That unconventional spirit has been a driving force throughout our history -- inspiring us to do things like rethink the mobile device ecosystem with Android and map the world with Google Maps. As part of that, our founders also explained that you could expect us to make "smaller bets in areas that might seem very speculative or even strange when compared to our current businesses." From the start, the company has always strived to do more, and to do important and meaningful things with the resources we have.

Alphabet is a collection of businesses -- the largest of which, of course, is Google. It also includes businesses that are generally pretty far afield of our main Internet products such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. We report all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Our Alphabet structure is about helping each of our businesses prosper through strong leaders and independence."
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KyleAAA »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
That is not even remotely true that all of those ventures make money only through advertising. Google Cloud, their artificial intelligence chips, Google Home, Chromecast, Nest, Fiber, Android, Google Capital and Google Ventures do not rely heavily on advertising revenue. Their autonomous cars will not rely on advertising dollars.

Can you expound on your point that Google is terrified of voice?
What's the combined revenue of all of those ventures and what is it as a percentage of Google's total revenue? It's a rounding error. Google does a lot of things but it only makes significant (to it) money on advertising. Most of the non-advertising revenue is unprofitable, too.
$10 billion of revenue which is about 13% of total. Not a rounding error. I'm sure if I took 13% of your net worth away it wouldn't be a rounding error. I'm sure if I gave you $10 billion it wouldn't be a rounding error.

I also don't really understand the infatuation with calling them a one trick pony. There are few companies that are as diverse as Google in the breadth of their products and industries.

Just because a business is unprofitable doesn't mean it doesn't have value. As stated earlier Morgan Stanley thinks Wayno alone could be worth $70 billion. We value businesses off the future cash flows.
It seems google itself agrees with me, which is why it brought in a new CFO and is completely changing direction on these side projects. And as I noted, it is Google that refers to itself as a one trick pony. I didn't originate that description although I do agree with it.
They are completely changing direction on the side projects? What a ridiculous exaggeration. They simply changed their reporting structure to provide more clarity to shareholders. It's not like they sidelined the projects.

When is that quote from? I believe it's 2010. Maybe you should look for something more recent.

Their recent 10-K certainly doesn't describe themselves as one trick pony.

"As our founders Larry and Sergey wrote in the original founders' letter, "Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one." That unconventional spirit has been a driving force throughout our history -- inspiring us to do things like rethink the mobile device ecosystem with Android and map the world with Google Maps. As part of that, our founders also explained that you could expect us to make "smaller bets in areas that might seem very speculative or even strange when compared to our current businesses." From the start, the company has always strived to do more, and to do important and meaningful things with the resources we have.

Alphabet is a collection of businesses -- the largest of which, of course, is Google. It also includes businesses that are generally pretty far afield of our main Internet products such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. We report all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Our Alphabet structure is about helping each of our businesses prosper through strong leaders and independence."
They didn't sideline projects? They simply changed their reporting structure? It would seem you should do a lot more research before investing.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by kjvmartin »

I like Costco stock better than Google stock.

They aren't even in all 50 states yet. The several I've visited have full parking lots and long lines inside & out (gas) at various times of the day. They are known for taking care of their employees and generally seem to want to do the right thing in business. I use Amazon for very little when I am able to comparison shop vs. Costco, they have better products and often better deals.

I hate to shop and like going there. They have room to grow. I think they'll continue to do well. This is the only individual stock I've owned.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
What's the combined revenue of all of those ventures and what is it as a percentage of Google's total revenue? It's a rounding error. Google does a lot of things but it only makes significant (to it) money on advertising. Most of the non-advertising revenue is unprofitable, too.
$10 billion of revenue which is about 13% of total. Not a rounding error. I'm sure if I took 13% of your net worth away it wouldn't be a rounding error. I'm sure if I gave you $10 billion it wouldn't be a rounding error.

I also don't really understand the infatuation with calling them a one trick pony. There are few companies that are as diverse as Google in the breadth of their products and industries.

Just because a business is unprofitable doesn't mean it doesn't have value. As stated earlier Morgan Stanley thinks Wayno alone could be worth $70 billion. We value businesses off the future cash flows.
It seems google itself agrees with me, which is why it brought in a new CFO and is completely changing direction on these side projects. And as I noted, it is Google that refers to itself as a one trick pony. I didn't originate that description although I do agree with it.
They are completely changing direction on the side projects? What a ridiculous exaggeration. They simply changed their reporting structure to provide more clarity to shareholders. It's not like they sidelined the projects.

When is that quote from? I believe it's 2010. Maybe you should look for something more recent.

Their recent 10-K certainly doesn't describe themselves as one trick pony.

"As our founders Larry and Sergey wrote in the original founders' letter, "Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one." That unconventional spirit has been a driving force throughout our history -- inspiring us to do things like rethink the mobile device ecosystem with Android and map the world with Google Maps. As part of that, our founders also explained that you could expect us to make "smaller bets in areas that might seem very speculative or even strange when compared to our current businesses." From the start, the company has always strived to do more, and to do important and meaningful things with the resources we have.

Alphabet is a collection of businesses -- the largest of which, of course, is Google. It also includes businesses that are generally pretty far afield of our main Internet products such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. We report all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Our Alphabet structure is about helping each of our businesses prosper through strong leaders and independence."
They didn't sideline projects? They simply changed their reporting structure? It would seem you should do a lot more research before investing.
You really have a way of exaggerating and intentionally taking things out of context. You may want to work on improving that as it will help your work and personal life.

They didn't sideline a bunch of them and they didn't sideline any of the ones that I care about. As most businesses do, they sideline projects as becomes necessary. Why don't you go into detail on some of the material projects they sidelined?

Maybe I should do more research but so far it's served me well. Sometimes it's best to focus on the big picture and not get bogged down in immaterial details. I have made multiples of my original investment on Amazon, Nvidia and Google, about a 20% profit in a few months on Whole Foods and a 70% gain on another stock I bought in November. That is the extent of my individual public stock investments.
Last edited by LFKB on Sun Jun 11, 2017 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

kjvmartin wrote:I like Costco stock better than Google stock.

They aren't even in all 50 states yet. The several I've visited have full parking lots and long lines inside & out (gas) at various times of the day. They are known for taking care of their employees and generally seem to want to do the right thing in business. I use Amazon for very little when I am able to comparison shop vs. Costco, they have better products and often better deals.

I hate to shop and like going there. They have room to grow. I think they'll continue to do well. This is the only individual stock I've owned.
Thank you for being one of the only people to actually answer my answer my post in the intended way. I'm not a big fan of retail and think eventually the 8% of spend that is online goes much, much higher so I stay away from those types of investments. I appreciate the opinion and response nonetheless.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KyleAAA »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
$10 billion of revenue which is about 13% of total. Not a rounding error. I'm sure if I took 13% of your net worth away it wouldn't be a rounding error. I'm sure if I gave you $10 billion it wouldn't be a rounding error.

I also don't really understand the infatuation with calling them a one trick pony. There are few companies that are as diverse as Google in the breadth of their products and industries.

Just because a business is unprofitable doesn't mean it doesn't have value. As stated earlier Morgan Stanley thinks Wayno alone could be worth $70 billion. We value businesses off the future cash flows.
It seems google itself agrees with me, which is why it brought in a new CFO and is completely changing direction on these side projects. And as I noted, it is Google that refers to itself as a one trick pony. I didn't originate that description although I do agree with it.
They are completely changing direction on the side projects? What a ridiculous exaggeration. They simply changed their reporting structure to provide more clarity to shareholders. It's not like they sidelined the projects.

When is that quote from? I believe it's 2010. Maybe you should look for something more recent.

Their recent 10-K certainly doesn't describe themselves as one trick pony.

"As our founders Larry and Sergey wrote in the original founders' letter, "Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one." That unconventional spirit has been a driving force throughout our history -- inspiring us to do things like rethink the mobile device ecosystem with Android and map the world with Google Maps. As part of that, our founders also explained that you could expect us to make "smaller bets in areas that might seem very speculative or even strange when compared to our current businesses." From the start, the company has always strived to do more, and to do important and meaningful things with the resources we have.

Alphabet is a collection of businesses -- the largest of which, of course, is Google. It also includes businesses that are generally pretty far afield of our main Internet products such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. We report all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Our Alphabet structure is about helping each of our businesses prosper through strong leaders and independence."
They didn't sideline projects? They simply changed their reporting structure? It would seem you should do a lot more research before investing.
You really have a way of exaggerating and intentionally taking things out of context. You may want to work on improving that as it will help your work and personal life.

They didn't sideline a bunch of them and they didn't sideline any of the ones that I care about. As most businesses do, they sideline projects as becomes necessary. Why don't you go into detail on some of the material projects they sidelined?

Maybe I should do more research but so far it's served me well. Sometimes it's best to focus on the big picture and not get bogged down in immaterial details. I have made multiples of my original investment on Amazon, Nvidia and Google, about a 20% profit in a few months on Whole Foods and a 70% gain on another stock I bought in November. That is the extent of my individual public stock investments.
Google has made core changes; very deep changes to the way they approach new businesses. That isn't an exaggeration and it isn't an immaterial detail. I can't go into any detail for a few reasons but you should do more research into where Google is investing and where they aren't. If you're going to invest in an individual stock you owe it to yourself to know the business and the risks it faces inside and out.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
It seems google itself agrees with me, which is why it brought in a new CFO and is completely changing direction on these side projects. And as I noted, it is Google that refers to itself as a one trick pony. I didn't originate that description although I do agree with it.
They are completely changing direction on the side projects? What a ridiculous exaggeration. They simply changed their reporting structure to provide more clarity to shareholders. It's not like they sidelined the projects.

When is that quote from? I believe it's 2010. Maybe you should look for something more recent.

Their recent 10-K certainly doesn't describe themselves as one trick pony.

"As our founders Larry and Sergey wrote in the original founders' letter, "Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one." That unconventional spirit has been a driving force throughout our history -- inspiring us to do things like rethink the mobile device ecosystem with Android and map the world with Google Maps. As part of that, our founders also explained that you could expect us to make "smaller bets in areas that might seem very speculative or even strange when compared to our current businesses." From the start, the company has always strived to do more, and to do important and meaningful things with the resources we have.

Alphabet is a collection of businesses -- the largest of which, of course, is Google. It also includes businesses that are generally pretty far afield of our main Internet products such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. We report all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Our Alphabet structure is about helping each of our businesses prosper through strong leaders and independence."
They didn't sideline projects? They simply changed their reporting structure? It would seem you should do a lot more research before investing.
You really have a way of exaggerating and intentionally taking things out of context. You may want to work on improving that as it will help your work and personal life.

They didn't sideline a bunch of them and they didn't sideline any of the ones that I care about. As most businesses do, they sideline projects as becomes necessary. Why don't you go into detail on some of the material projects they sidelined?

Maybe I should do more research but so far it's served me well. Sometimes it's best to focus on the big picture and not get bogged down in immaterial details. I have made multiples of my original investment on Amazon, Nvidia and Google, about a 20% profit in a few months on Whole Foods and a 70% gain on another stock I bought in November. That is the extent of my individual public stock investments.
Google has made core changes; very deep changes to the way they approach new businesses. That isn't an exaggeration and it isn't an immaterial detail. I can't go into any detail for a few reasons but you should do more research into where Google is investing and where they aren't. If you're going to invest in an individual stock you owe it to yourself to know the business and the risks it faces inside and out.
I'm confused (again). What makes you think I haven't looked into where Gooogle is investing? I've listed out several of the key investment areas multiple times in this thread, including in a numbered list in my original post.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by KyleAAA »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
They are completely changing direction on the side projects? What a ridiculous exaggeration. They simply changed their reporting structure to provide more clarity to shareholders. It's not like they sidelined the projects.

When is that quote from? I believe it's 2010. Maybe you should look for something more recent.

Their recent 10-K certainly doesn't describe themselves as one trick pony.

"As our founders Larry and Sergey wrote in the original founders' letter, "Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one." That unconventional spirit has been a driving force throughout our history -- inspiring us to do things like rethink the mobile device ecosystem with Android and map the world with Google Maps. As part of that, our founders also explained that you could expect us to make "smaller bets in areas that might seem very speculative or even strange when compared to our current businesses." From the start, the company has always strived to do more, and to do important and meaningful things with the resources we have.

Alphabet is a collection of businesses -- the largest of which, of course, is Google. It also includes businesses that are generally pretty far afield of our main Internet products such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. We report all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Our Alphabet structure is about helping each of our businesses prosper through strong leaders and independence."
They didn't sideline projects? They simply changed their reporting structure? It would seem you should do a lot more research before investing.
You really have a way of exaggerating and intentionally taking things out of context. You may want to work on improving that as it will help your work and personal life.

They didn't sideline a bunch of them and they didn't sideline any of the ones that I care about. As most businesses do, they sideline projects as becomes necessary. Why don't you go into detail on some of the material projects they sidelined?

Maybe I should do more research but so far it's served me well. Sometimes it's best to focus on the big picture and not get bogged down in immaterial details. I have made multiples of my original investment on Amazon, Nvidia and Google, about a 20% profit in a few months on Whole Foods and a 70% gain on another stock I bought in November. That is the extent of my individual public stock investments.
Google has made core changes; very deep changes to the way they approach new businesses. That isn't an exaggeration and it isn't an immaterial detail. I can't go into any detail for a few reasons but you should do more research into where Google is investing and where they aren't. If you're going to invest in an individual stock you owe it to yourself to know the business and the risks it faces inside and out.
I'm confused (again). What makes you think I haven't looked into where Gooogle is investing? I've listed out several of the key investment areas multiple times in this thread, including in a numbered list in my original post.
Because you were seemingly unaware of why Google is afraid of voice, for instance.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
They didn't sideline projects? They simply changed their reporting structure? It would seem you should do a lot more research before investing.
You really have a way of exaggerating and intentionally taking things out of context. You may want to work on improving that as it will help your work and personal life.

They didn't sideline a bunch of them and they didn't sideline any of the ones that I care about. As most businesses do, they sideline projects as becomes necessary. Why don't you go into detail on some of the material projects they sidelined?

Maybe I should do more research but so far it's served me well. Sometimes it's best to focus on the big picture and not get bogged down in immaterial details. I have made multiples of my original investment on Amazon, Nvidia and Google, about a 20% profit in a few months on Whole Foods and a 70% gain on another stock I bought in November. That is the extent of my individual public stock investments.
Google has made core changes; very deep changes to the way they approach new businesses. That isn't an exaggeration and it isn't an immaterial detail. I can't go into any detail for a few reasons but you should do more research into where Google is investing and where they aren't. If you're going to invest in an individual stock you owe it to yourself to know the business and the risks it faces inside and out.
I'm confused (again). What makes you think I haven't looked into where Gooogle is investing? I've listed out several of the key investment areas multiple times in this thread, including in a numbered list in my original post.
Because you were seemingly unaware of why Google is afraid of voice, for instance.
Not unaware. I simply asked for additional detail. I wanted to hear the opinion without that opinion being impacted by my views. So you are seemingly wrong.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by nisiprius »

I do have a reason for disliking, specifically, Google/Alphabet stock and I didn't discover it until I tried to figure out the ticker symbol and noticed it has two, GOOG and GOOGL.

I assume all the sophisticates know all about this and don't care about whether their shares of stock actually represent true participation in the company, but it hasn't been mentioned upthread so I'll mention it here.

Google is playing the "share class" game, which in my personal opinion is sleazy. It is a "public" company in which Brin and Page retain control. Brin and Page hold "class B" shares, which are not publicly traded. These are the ones with full voting right,s so if you were investing and not speculating, these would be ones you would want to own. If I've got this the right way around, GOOGL is class A shares, which have only 1/10th the voting rights of class B, and GOOG has no voting rights at all.

In Ye Olde Days the NYSE didn't allow this kind of shenanigans. I don't know what the situation is today. It's probably one of the reasons so many high-tech firms list on the NASDAQ, which by reputation is more loosey-goosey.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by MP173 »

I own about 17 individual stocks (started adding in 1995) and my last purchase was in about 2011 with JNJ. There is nothing I see now that interests me as a buyer. I am a holder and dividend re-investor of all of my holdings...but nothing on the radar for now. My equity holdings, other than index, are your basic slow growth (5%), dividend paying blue chips. These have had very nice dividend increases over the years and good performance.

I missed on Google, Apple, and others, but have done quite well with Microsoft.

My 401k contributions are into bond fund and Target Funds.

Nothing at this valuation excites me and to be perfectly honest...I know very little about technology, hence no jumping in.

Ed
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by Tyler Aspect »

People who hold individual Google stock would subject themselves to risks of single factor advertising based revenue. I must also mention that consumers are wary of becoming dependent on Google abandon-ware technologies such as Picasa image editor, or Chrome box non-working parental controlled accounts. More google technologies are abandoned each day than other respectable companies would dare.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by jcavana1 »

Here is the reason that I love google stock going forward....Software.

It's all about software. Google, Uber, Lyft, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon have made virtually all of their money because of 1 thing....software.

And no one can compete with google on software.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by Tycoon »

jcavana1 wrote:Here is the reason that I love google stock going forward....Software.

It's all about software. Google, Uber, Lyft, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon have made virtually all of their money because of 1 thing....software.

And no one can compete with google on software.
I just wonder if Apple and Microsoft thought the same thing prior to Google's climb?
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athan
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by athan »

I invested 5% of portfolio in Tesla around $200 a share. The reason I invested had nothing to do with liking the cars, or having a fondness for the environment. I invested because I believe in the founder. Elon Musk is on a different level from most people, with the exception of a few business leaders such as Bezos, Gates, Zuckerberg and Jobs. I'm not sure about the valuation of the stock, but I believe in the leadership.

I also am invested in a small company called Awilco Drilling (AWLCF). This is an extremely small company with two refurbished oil rigs. One is in cold storage right now, and the other is leased to Apache oil for the next year. I like the company because of the balance sheet, the ability to buy new rigs if the price is right,and the dividend of 0.20/share. The price is not strictly dependent on oil prices in the next year, and could go up if the other rig finds work. It is a gamble, but I figured it is worth it considering 90% of my investments are in index funds with Vanguard.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by jcavana1 »

Tycoon wrote:
jcavana1 wrote:Here is the reason that I love google stock going forward....Software.

It's all about software. Google, Uber, Lyft, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon have made virtually all of their money because of 1 thing....software.

And no one can compete with google on software.
I just wonder if Apple and Microsoft thought the same thing prior to Google's climb?
I'm not sure if I understand you.
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triceratop
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by triceratop »

I don't buy individual stocks on principle, but if I were going to I would have bought Nvidia a while ago (probably in early- to mid- 2016 when I became familiar with the tech). I'll be content to own it at market weights, but of course I may choose to direct my human capital in that direction ;) . If you work in the tech or tech-adjacent industries then it's clear that single-threaded (CPU) processor power is not going to maintain the pace that it has for decades. They have a significant "moat", to use Buffett's term, in the form of a long lead time on their tech over the rest of the industry. Their tech has been consistently performant, to the extent that the major national labs use their GPUs to accelerate their clusters. They have a developer toolkit and plenty of middleware to facilitate easy general purpose parallel computing. It is just a solid company that I have believed in for some time, in an area of the tech industry poised to lead the way for future innovations.

It doesn't hurt that I love programming GPUs :)
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by CyclingDuo »

triceratop wrote:...I don't buy individual stocks on principle, but if I were going to I would have bought Nvidia...
Hard to go wrong with NVDA in one's basket.

NVDA
AAPL
FB
AMZN
GOOGL
CRM
CHKP
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by snarlyjack »

Keep in mind that I'm a index investor.

But if I had to pick some individual stocks I would
be looking at the "Defense Industry". The way the
world is going right now I would be looking at
Navy shipbuilders (per Trump) or Air force fighter
jet builders, not to mention missile or rocket builders.

*****If Vanguard is reading this: I think you should design a
"Defense Industry" sector index fund like the "Health Index Fund".
I would invest in a index fund like this in a heartbeat!*****

Thank you Vanguard!
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by DomDangelina »

Jim Cramer yesterday advised to buy OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.). I'm thus rushing to buy it right now. ;-)
"Often the remedy causes the disease. It is by no means the least of life's rules: to let things alone." | Baltasar Gracián, S.J., The Art of Worldly Wisdom, Maxim 121
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David Jay
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by David Jay »

DomDangelina wrote:Jim Cramer yesterday advised to buy OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.). I'm thus rushing to buy it right now. ;-)
Thanks for the tip, I missed his program yesterday. I usually buy everything Jim recommends.

/sarc
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by flossy21 »

Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel
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nedsaid
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by nedsaid »

To answer your question, let me tell you what new stocks I have purchased in 2017.

Coke - It is not a cheap stock. Rated 3 star by Morningstar. In fact it looked expensive to me but it was a stock that I have wanted to own for many years. It is a great business and Warren Buffett has owned it for many years. I put aside my valuation concerns and bought anyway. Analysts project a 5% earnings growth rate.

Gilead Sciences - A Bio-Tech stock rated 4 star by Morningstar as are other bio-techs. Valuation measurements like Price/Earnings, Price/Book, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow lower than the industry average. A forward P/E of 6.9 with a stock with potentially good growth prospects if the company can turn things around. Nearly $12 Billion in cash. The problem is that earnings and revenue have dropped and are projected to drop further. I think this is a chance worth taking.

Ford Motor Company - Good old Ford. Another 4 star stock as rated by Morningstar. Almost 39 billion in cash. Forward P/E of 6.6% and trailing P/E of 12. Price to book of 1.5 vs. 1.3 for the industry and 3.0 for the S&P 500. Price to sales of 0.3 compared to 0.5 for the industry and 2.1 for the S&P 500. Price to cash flow of 2.2 vs. 0.1 for the industry and 13.2 for the S&P 500. This stock screams cheap, cheap, cheap. The problem is that we may be late in the auto cycle though Wall Street is projecting earnings growth in 2018. Looks to me that the stock is priced for recession but looks so cheap that I am willing to ride the recession out if it comes. Just bought a few days ago.

Much of the funds for these purchases came from selling 2/3 of my stake in Applied Materials which until last Friday has been performing in spectacular fashion. Now it is down to a one star rating by Morningstar. Looks like my timing was pretty good here. The rest of the available funds came from dividends from my other stocks and ETFs.

Ironically, the only stock up from where I bought it was Coke. Ford is down a tiny amount and Gilead is down about 14% from where I bought it. This shows that often Value stocks have a negative momentum. So this shows the need for patience if you want to invest in value.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by DomDangelina »

I just bought 9 shares of Ford as an experiment.
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LFKB
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by LFKB »

LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
KyleAAA wrote:
LFKB wrote:
$10 billion of revenue which is about 13% of total. Not a rounding error. I'm sure if I took 13% of your net worth away it wouldn't be a rounding error. I'm sure if I gave you $10 billion it wouldn't be a rounding error.

I also don't really understand the infatuation with calling them a one trick pony. There are few companies that are as diverse as Google in the breadth of their products and industries.

Just because a business is unprofitable doesn't mean it doesn't have value. As stated earlier Morgan Stanley thinks Wayno alone could be worth $70 billion. We value businesses off the future cash flows.
It seems google itself agrees with me, which is why it brought in a new CFO and is completely changing direction on these side projects. And as I noted, it is Google that refers to itself as a one trick pony. I didn't originate that description although I do agree with it.
They are completely changing direction on the side projects? What a ridiculous exaggeration. They simply changed their reporting structure to provide more clarity to shareholders. It's not like they sidelined the projects.

When is that quote from? I believe it's 2010. Maybe you should look for something more recent.

Their recent 10-K certainly doesn't describe themselves as one trick pony.

"As our founders Larry and Sergey wrote in the original founders' letter, "Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one." That unconventional spirit has been a driving force throughout our history -- inspiring us to do things like rethink the mobile device ecosystem with Android and map the world with Google Maps. As part of that, our founders also explained that you could expect us to make "smaller bets in areas that might seem very speculative or even strange when compared to our current businesses." From the start, the company has always strived to do more, and to do important and meaningful things with the resources we have.

Alphabet is a collection of businesses -- the largest of which, of course, is Google. It also includes businesses that are generally pretty far afield of our main Internet products such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. We report all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Our Alphabet structure is about helping each of our businesses prosper through strong leaders and independence."
They didn't sideline projects? They simply changed their reporting structure? It would seem you should do a lot more research before investing.
You really have a way of exaggerating and intentionally taking things out of context. You may want to work on improving that as it will help your work and personal life.

They didn't sideline a bunch of them and they didn't sideline any of the ones that I care about. As most businesses do, they sideline projects as becomes necessary. Why don't you go into detail on some of the material projects they sidelined?

Maybe I should do more research but so far it's served me well. Sometimes it's best to focus on the big picture and not get bogged down in immaterial details. I have made multiples of my original investment on Amazon, Nvidia and Google, about a 20% profit in a few months on Whole Foods and a 70% gain on another stock I bought in November. That is the extent of my individual public stock investments.
Whole Foods being bought by Amazon today is another good example of an investment where I didn't do a Tom of research but did great in the stock (40% gain in a few months).
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by nedsaid »

LFKB wrote:
Whole Foods being bought by Amazon today is another good example of an investment where I didn't do a Tom of research but did great in the stock (40% gain in a few months).
That is a great feeling when you make money on a stock. Congratulations.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by investorpeter »

I prefer Nvidia over Google as a stock right now. Google's tensor flow chip may be faster at certain applications, but Nvidia's GPUs are more adaptable to differing applications and I would argue that no one has come up with a transformative application for AI yet; autonomous driving being the leading candidate but still years away and I think that there will be even more significant applications to come that we have not even conceived yet. Nvidia has the lead in this field mong researchers since I can just go out and buy an Nvidia chip right now, whereas I cannot buy a Google tensor flow chip. Google has more money than Nvidia, but Nvidia still has the lead which is quite amazing when you think that not long ago, it's major market was video games. I like CEOs who can aggressively and successfully pivot companies into new industries (ala Reed Hastings at Netflix; or of course Bezos at Amazon, perhaps the master of the pivot). Google has not shown that it can pivot successfully away from search. Obviously, Nvidia has more room to grow than Google, even after its already meteoric rise. As a speculative stock investment (and all stock investments are speculative), I prefer Nvidia over Google at the moment. Though I still like Google very much. But I just see too many similarities between Google today and Microsoft in the 2000s. Google is also facing headwinds in Europe with all these regulatory agencies levying fines and such. Microsoft went through the same process in Europe and the U.S. and was significantly impaired by it. Google's corporate structure may be flawed, with too many things happening at once, without clear focus or leadership. Having said all of that, I still hedge my bets. I own Google, Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft.
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Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Post by Hawaiishrimp »

Nvidia. I made 12x money, that's why...
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.
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