Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

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jimnicol
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Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by jimnicol »

Got to admit, he makes it sound pretty scary to this newly attentive investor. Should he be taken seriously?

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-roge ... ing-2017-6
minimalistmarc
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by minimalistmarc »

No he shouldn't be taken seriously, he is a perma bear gold bug.

Of course he could be right, like every broken clock is at some point
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by willthrill81 »

Nobody knows nothin'.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by InvestorNewb »

It's going to happen later this year or next according to the article. And it's going to be the "worst" in the interviewer's lifetime. Pretty bold statements.

It's sad that people believe such predictions.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by abner kravitz »

He predicted pretty much the same thing in 2013.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by AlohaJoe »

jimnicol wrote:Got to admit, he makes it sound pretty scary to this newly attentive investor. Should he be taken seriously?
He also predicted the "crash of a lifetime"

- in 2010 (it was supposed to hit in 2012, maybe we all forgot about that one?)
- In 2012 (it was supposed to hit in 2013)
- In 2013 (it was supposed to hit in 2014 or 2015, he wasn't sure which)
- In May of 2016 he said there was a 100% probability of a US recession within 12 months (it has now been 13 months)

Why do you listen to people without knowing anything about them? For that matter, why are you watching videos on Business Insider at all?

Being a "newly attentive investor" is exactly the wrong thing to be doing. You should not be an attentive investor. You should live a normal life and not pay attention to the "noise". Learn to knit or restore furniture or something instead, that's a far better use of your time.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

So if he were so sure, he would have sold short the S & P 500 for his entire net worth, right?
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by Raymond »

Watching "financial pornography" videos, I see :D

If I made predictions about the world ending every other year, eventually I'd be right too.

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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by jebmke »

If you have ever seen the traffic on the Beltway, he could be right. One of these days there will be a crash like we have never seen before.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by birdog »

AlohaJoe wrote:Being a "newly attentive investor" is exactly the wrong thing to be doing. You should not be an attentive investor. You should live a normal life and not pay attention to the "noise". Learn to knit or restore furniture or something instead, that's a far better use of your time.
I agree 100%, however, this has been the hardest part for me since I adopted the Boglehead philosophy a few months ago. Since then I have turned off CNBC. When I do catch some CNBC (plays on the TV in the breakroom at work) I look at it from a different perspective. It's now very easy for me to see that CNBC is financial porn and that they are trying to drive ratings by fear reporting and sensationalizing. Every day they tell you how each story will effect YOUR money and where to put YOUR money NOW! I'm resisting the urge to tinker with my portfolio but still check it way too often. I then started to focus on other financial areas, such as the best cash back credit cards, savings accounts, best HSA accounts, etc. I streamlined my finances and eliminated duplicate or unnecessary accounts. I'm also trying to get as tax efficient as possible. Checking this forum has helped me to keep involved with finances while leaving my three-fund portfolio alone. Still, I sure would like to go even a week without checking my accounts. Does this ever get easier? Maybe I should delete the app from my phone as a starter?
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by mrc »

Who is Jim Rogers? :wink:
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by timboktoo »

He's fun to watch and likable, but he's not the person I take my investing philosophy from.

- Tim
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by randomguy »

birdog wrote:
AlohaJoe wrote:Being a "newly attentive investor" is exactly the wrong thing to be doing. You should not be an attentive investor. You should live a normal life and not pay attention to the "noise". Learn to knit or restore furniture or something instead, that's a far better use of your time.
I agree 100%, however, this has been the hardest part for me since I adopted the Boglehead philosophy a few months ago. Since then I have turned off CNBC. When I do catch some CNBC (plays on the TV in the breakroom at work) I look at it from a different perspective. It's now very easy for me to see that CNBC is financial porn and that they are trying to drive ratings by fear reporting and sensationalizing. Every day they tell you how each story will effect YOUR money and where to put YOUR money NOW! I'm resisting the urge to tinker with my portfolio but still check it way too often. I then started to focus on other financial areas, such as the best cash back credit cards, savings accounts, best HSA accounts, etc. I streamlined my finances and eliminated duplicate or unnecessary accounts. I'm also trying to get as tax efficient as possible. Checking this forum has helped me to keep involved with finances while leaving my three-fund portfolio alone. Still, I sure would like to go even a week without checking my accounts. Does this ever get easier? Maybe I should delete the app from my phone as a starter?

it is easier when you stop trying to over optimize your financial life and get on living. Spend a week and get things set up and then check back in eveyr 6 months. Spending hours trolling for the best deals isn't worth it. Unless of course you find it to be a fun hobby.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by herpfinance »

My prediction is that we will have a crash either this year, or next year, or the year after next year, or..
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by autolycus »

minimalistmarc wrote:No he shouldn't be taken seriously, he is a perma bear gold bug.

Of course he could be right, like every broken clock is at some point
I wonder when we'll come up with a new saying for this situation. Broken digital clocks are most definitely not right at some point, at least not until the literal end of time.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by WhiteMaxima »

Just ignore any prediction. Put money in 1/3 VTI, 1/3 VXUS, 1/3 VBOND, rebalance and you will be fine.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by skepticalobserver »

Jim "investment Biker" Rogers is one cool guy. He often writes about his many exoctic third-world invesments (say, Indonesion micro-loan futures), but Jim has been predicting financial Armageddon for a long time. Maybe it came to pass and I missed it. He supposedly made a fortune with Soros, so I'll always listen.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by triceratop »

autolycus wrote:
minimalistmarc wrote:No he shouldn't be taken seriously, he is a perma bear gold bug.

Of course he could be right, like every broken clock is at some point
I wonder when we'll come up with a new saying for this situation. Broken digital clocks are most definitely not right at some point, at least not until the literal end of time.
That's because the "broken clock" is a perversion of the correct saying which is "stopped clock" -- digital clocks don't 'stop', they 'stop working'.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by jimnicol »

AlohaJoe wrote:
jimnicol wrote:Got to admit, he makes it sound pretty scary to this newly attentive investor. Should he be taken seriously?
He also predicted the "crash of a lifetime"

- in 2010 (it was supposed to hit in 2012, maybe we all forgot about that one?)
- In 2012 (it was supposed to hit in 2013)
- In 2013 (it was supposed to hit in 2014 or 2015, he wasn't sure which)
- In May of 2016 he said there was a 100% probability of a US recession within 12 months (it has now been 13 months)

Why do you listen to people without knowing anything about them? For that matter, why are you watching videos on Business Insider at all?

Being a "newly attentive investor" is exactly the wrong thing to be doing. You should not be an attentive investor. You should live a normal life and not pay attention to the "noise". Learn to knit or restore furniture or something instead, that's a far better use of your time.

Just followed a link from Drudge, was all. By "newly attentive" I'm referring to my recent discovery of Bogleheads.org as much as anything, and the resulting interest in determining my own investment course rather than letting it be "managed" while I knit or restore furniture. Which I why I came here after listening to Rogers' doom & gloom.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by jimnicol »

triceratop wrote:
autolycus wrote:
minimalistmarc wrote:No he shouldn't be taken seriously, he is a perma bear gold bug.

Of course he could be right, like every broken clock is at some point
I wonder when we'll come up with a new saying for this situation. Broken digital clocks are most definitely not right at some point, at least not until the literal end of time.
That's because the "broken clock" is a perversion of the correct saying which is "stopped clock" -- digital clocks don't 'stop', they 'stop working'.
Ha, I've had an ongoing argument with a brother about this for decades. His contention is that since time never actually stops, the "stopped clock" is never actually correct. Mine is that since time has to get from 12:00:00 to 12:00:02, a clock stopped at 12:00:01 is correct as time passes, even if we can't define how it's correct...
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by 1210sda »

I too am very concerned about the coming major crash. That's why I back up my computer on a frequent, regular basis. :happy :happy
1210
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by jimnicol »

WhiteMaxima wrote:Just ignore any prediction. Put money in 1/3 VTI, 1/3 VXUS, 1/3 VBOND, rebalance and you will be fine.
Just what we're tying to do, but it ain't easy from where we started...50 individual equities, a dozen or so stock funds, 20 bond funds. There's a Supplemental Needs Trust, too, that's proving a little more involved than we knew as we try to get our "managed" accounts transferred.

Thanks for all the comments!
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

I lost a lot of money listening to folks like Jim and missed the great market run up of the 80s and early 90s. Thankfully for now at least, I am enjoying sitting at the feet of the guru John Bogle and doing what John recommends.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by NibbanaBanana »

He was big on commodities for a long time. His arguments seemed convincing. I bought a few commodity ETFs. Maybe %1 of my assets. I held them for five years or so and began to realize that he was simply wrong. Sold after loosing about %25 between price and high fees on these things. Bought SNP and some good dividend stocks that I hope to hold for life. I now try to only take financial advice from one man: John Bogle.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by heartwood »

mrc wrote:Who is Jim Rogers? :wink:
+1

no wink, I don't know who he is or his credentials and I've read the financial press for many years. I don't care enough to google him. I'm somewhat surprised that so many here apparently know who he is. Is he a boglehead? Now a wink.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by skepticalobserver »

heartwood wrote: Is he a boglehead?
I don't think indexing is exoctic enough for him.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by saltycaper »

Oh, Jim Rogers. I missed him. It's been a long time, maybe 15 years since I last saw him, probably an appearance on the Saturday morning Fox Business lineup in the early aughts. There was Rogers, and the Chart Man, and the guy from Capitalist Pig, and the host who passed away recently. Here I am taking a trip down memory lane, and who else makes an appearance? Why, the infamous Henry Blodget. How did I not know he is the CEO of Business Insider? "Business news" entertainment at its finest.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by Avo »

I remember an article in Worth magazine around 1989 in which Rogers advised any young person starting out to move to China ...

I can't believe this guy is still around, and that anyone pays any attention to him whatsoever ... I guess he has a knack for saying memorable things, since I still remember that article after almost 30 years ...
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by skepticalobserver »

Avo wrote:Rogers advised any young person starting out to move to China ...
Prescient, no?
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by evestor »

AlohaJoe wrote:
jimnicol wrote:Got to admit, he makes it sound pretty scary to this newly attentive investor. Should he be taken seriously?
He also predicted the "crash of a lifetime"

- in 2010 (it was supposed to hit in 2012, maybe we all forgot about that one?)
- In 2012 (it was supposed to hit in 2013)
- In 2013 (it was supposed to hit in 2014 or 2015, he wasn't sure which)
- In May of 2016 he said there was a 100% probability of a US recession within 12 months (it has now been 13 months)

Why do you listen to people without knowing anything about them? For that matter, why are you watching videos on Business Insider at all?

Being a "newly attentive investor" is exactly the wrong thing to be doing. You should not be an attentive investor. You should live a normal life and not pay attention to the "noise". Learn to knit or restore furniture or something instead, that's a far better use of your time.
Sounds like he accurately predicted 14 of the last 2 crashes. How could you *not* listen this time?

<g>
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by garlandwhizzer »

willthrill81 wrote:
Nobody knows nothin'.
1+

The main function of predictors of the economic future is to make fortune tellers look good--Warren Buffett's take on predictors and predictions.

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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by jrtexas »

He did write a good book about riding a BMW motorcycle around the world. Other than thatches' a commodities guy.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

LOL, Henry Blodget's in that video! I haven't seen him since he was hawking almost every tech stock in existence during the dot-com days.

Edit: so Rogers is predicting the collapse of western civilization starting in the next year. Oooookay.
Last edited by zaboomafoozarg on Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by oldcomputerguy »

abner kravitz wrote:He predicted pretty much the same thing in 2013.
And in 2016.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by ray333 »

Awesome! I love buying opportunities
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by NibbanaBanana »

zaboomafoozarg wrote:LOL, Henry Blodget's in that video! I haven't seen him since he was hawking almost every tech stock in existence during the dot-com days.

Edit: so Rogers is predicting the collapse of western civilization starting in the next year. Oooookay.
I thought Blodget was banned from the securities industry for life?
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by PFInterest »

cant wait!
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by TomCat96 »

jimnicol wrote:Got to admit, he makes it sound pretty scary to this newly attentive investor. Should he be taken seriously?

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-roge ... ing-2017-6

Tell him that "Legendary Investor" TomCat96 has a good handle on things and predicts that things are going to be fine.
I'll do a one up and even give a few reasons on my own. When the hyperinflationary shock hits due to Central Bank asset purchasing, the remaining companies left in the market will spike in nominal terms once they're repriced due to the currency crash returning a sense of normalcy to market valuations. *

*please take this as tongue-in-cheek
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by BogleMelon »

Blodget: And what will trigger it?

Rogers: ...... I don’t know. It could be an American pension plan that goes broke and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war. Unlikely to be war but it’s going to be something.
So he doesn't know what could trigger it, yet, he is very certain it will be certain to happen very soon and he is very certain that it is going to be huge?!
Of course he is faking it, no wonder this is called news porn
Last edited by BogleMelon on Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by oldcomputerguy »

NibbanaBanana wrote:
zaboomafoozarg wrote:LOL, Henry Blodget's in that video! I haven't seen him since he was hawking almost every tech stock in existence during the dot-com days.

Edit: so Rogers is predicting the collapse of western civilization starting in the next year. Oooookay.
I thought Blodget was banned from the securities industry for life?
According to Wikipedia, he is.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by DartThrower »

mrc wrote:Who is Jim Rogers? :wink:
I think he's the one who says "booyah skeedaddy". Oh wait... that might have been ROY Rogers.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by JohnFiscal »

Have to say that his book "Investment Biker" got me through a long 3 week stay in SE Asia one time.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by stats99 »

I am still awaiting the "stagflation" he predicted in the late 1980's.....
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by BolderBoy »

jimnicol wrote:Got to admit, he makes it sound pretty scary to this newly attentive investor. Should he be taken seriously?

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-roge ... ing-2017-6
I didn't read the article. Did he gut an owl and read the entrails? How does he know?
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by McGilicutty »

Jack FFR1846 wrote:So if he were so sure, he would have sold short the S & P 500 for his entire net worth, right?
Rogers has been pretty much wrong about everything for years now. I suspect he doesn't do much 'investing' any more and instead makes money on appearance fees and what not.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by jbranx »

Jim Rogers, like all the rest of these types, are in the "entertainment business." Folks have an awful tendency to "overpay" for entertainment; in this case one pays by taking their advice. Soros, Jim's former partner, was bad wrong in saying in Nov. the market would head down on the election. Stan Druckenmiller, Soros' famous manager post Rogers, went very bearish last summer. like Bill Gross and all the others, they don't have a record of guessing right half the time.

Maybe Buffet is worth paying a lot of attention to, though his favorite indicator a few years ago--stock market valuation compared to US GDP--was just changed to interest rates at the last annual meeting. Jack Bogle is right more often than anyone else. And besides, missing just a few days out of the markets gets one very poor returns vs the benchmarks. If research, market timing, security selection, and dramatic overweights worked, the hedgies and Street types would own the world. Most of their wealth, however, comes from the pockets of those who choose to be "entertained" rather than investing for the long term, regularly and agnostically.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by BigFoot48 »

Avo wrote:I remember an article in Worth magazine around 1989 in which Rogers advised any young person starting out to move to China ...
And that's where he moved to! From the interview:
Rogers: Well, that’s why I moved to Asia. My children speak Mandarin because of what’s coming.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 15-time loser
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by Hockey10 »

The only thing I watch on CNBC is Jim Cramer for the Philly sports updates (and not for the stock tips).
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by JonnyDVM »

Can't take anyone who would wear that bow tie for an interview seriously.
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Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Post by Smorgasbord »

jimnicol wrote:Ha, I've had an ongoing argument with a brother about this for decades. His contention is that since time never actually stops, the "stopped clock" is never actually correct. Mine is that since time has to get from 12:00:00 to 12:00:02, a clock stopped at 12:00:01 is correct as time passes, even if we can't define how it's correct...
Doesn't that mean that a stopped clock is actually more correct than a working clock because the stopped clock will be correct for the briefest of moments twice a day while a working clock (even the super accurate atomic clocks) will always be off from the true time by some vanishingly small amount?
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