Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

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TallBoy29er
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TallBoy29er » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:14 am

Who needs those 3? I rode the tech wave with shares of Exodus Communications back in 1999. :beer

McGilicutty
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by McGilicutty » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:55 am

If you're feeling like you missed out, take 5% or 10% of your portfolio and dip a toe in the water. Here's a list of a few speculative stocks that have all done well this year, that have market caps less than $10 billion, and that are not even in the S&P 500:

OLED, AAOI, IAC, SQ, IRBT

Now, I'm not endorsing any of the above stocks (are any other individual stocks for that matter), but if you want to shoot for the moon, there are definitely stocks out there today that are going to outperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin.

Valuethinker
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:14 am

Google.

The IPO was a b-----up. It went to a discount to IPO price. There was no international offering despite the company's fast growing international operations.

The business model was (and is) a strong one. A natural monopoly. Huge potential for cash generation.

So that one I regret, because there were a number of very good factors about the company.

deltaneutral83
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by deltaneutral83 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:18 am

-If anyone would like to let me use their prime account, Netflix password, or test drive their model S, please send me a message.

Warren Buffet, the greatest business analyst and stock picker in the history of mankind missed the boat on Amazon, I'm certainly not going to feel incompetent for doing so.

Hanksmoney
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Hanksmoney » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:40 am

I held a little bit of AMZN purchased ~$150. I sold it at $300 because I needed to buy an engagement ring. I have no regrets and I just take it as fun to see what it is now.

Why I sleep just fine: At the same time I sold my Discover (DFS) stock. I bought for $38 in 2012 and sold for ~$62 in 2014. I was bullish on both stocks but more so on DFS. Discover wasn't accepted at most places in 2012 if you recall, but I had a card and realized how good it was having the best rewards and digital experience. I knew more and more people would be getting the card and most stores were getting tired of turning down Discover Card owners thus we're rapidly posting "Now accepting Discover cards". I certainly felt I had the inside scoop. 3 years later, DFS is down at $60.50.

I know my case isn't extreme, but still shows we don't know what the heck is going to happen. When looking at hindsight, you have to include the ones you would have been wrong about.

InvestoGuy
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by InvestoGuy » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:50 am

I woke up this morning thinking exactly the same. However, this is how I pacify myself:
1. When you have made a conscious decision to invest in Indexes at a low cost, you have agreed that you will be happy with the 'average' return of the market, at a low cost. Thus, mathematically speaking you will always lose out on the winners. That is basic indexing.
2. If someone can predict today, what the next AMZN, MSFT etc. could be, I will absolutely jump in, but as we all know, that is near impossible.
3. The only people I know who have really benefited and grown rich through individual tech stocks (over a long period of time) are the once who have some sort of stock options or grants received through these companies and continue to receive it. In other words, they were not individual investors, but stakeholders.
4. If the people in the lunch room are individual investors and have gained a lot through these tech stocks, ask them what their 10 yr returns were across their entire portfolio. I am confident it was below your index funds. Unless you eat lunch with Mr. Buffett. :happy

ecotone
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by ecotone » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:57 am

My wife is not into investing, but a couple years ago we decided to, as a team, decide on a couple brands/stocks that we wanted to invest in. We focused on brands that we use in our daily life and value their services. The exercise was primarily a way for me to try to jump start her interest in investing and we ended up buying shares of NFLX, AMZN, FB, & GOOGL (the now infamous FANG portfolio via Jim Cramer).

We cannot retire on our gains, and the portfolio does have some crazy swings, but I always have a smile on my face when I get a text from my wife quoting a ticker price to me.

:happy

FootballFan5548
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by FootballFan5548 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:27 am

My personal winner was FB. I bought at IPO of $38ish. Held on, still own, added some in the 80's, and love that it's up to $155 right now. It's nice seeing a +267% in your CapitalOne account.

My other personal winner was my own company. I work for a Specialty Insurance company, publicly traded. I started in 2008, received a bunch of options at $35 per share. Did the ESPP at 15% discount, received options and RSU's every year since I've been here never selling or exercising.
Stock went from $35 to $140, split 4/1 and is now being bought (merged) for over $50/share. That alone will move my retirement window up by several years.

For what it's worth, I also have had many losers along the way. I'm currently still holding F, VZ, and GILD who are all down 15% for me (but pay decent dividends).

Valuethinker
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:29 am

deltaneutral83 wrote:-If anyone would like to let me use their prime account, Netflix password, or test drive their model S, please send me a message.

Warren Buffet, the greatest business analyst and stock picker in the history of mankind missed the boat on Amazon, I'm certainly not going to feel incompetent for doing so.
The only tech business Buffett has invested in, AFAIK, is IBM. Not a wholly happy investment.

Despite being close personal friends with Bill Gates (and giving the Gates Foundation billions of dollars of his money to invest & disburse) Buffett has eschewed tech investments.

The company (so far) closest to Buffett's idea of a "wide moat" is Google (Alphabet). Which has something like a monopoly on the search business (but maybe not an unassailable monopoly). Apple? Maybe. You had to make a call on the success of ipod, ipad, iphone (especially the 3rd) and the associated OS.

Amazon is nowhere close to that, it's a fast and efficient executor, but its strategies and markets are anything but unique.

It's more the WalMart of ecommerce, and, AFAIK, Buffett has never made a big investment in WMT either (may have a holding, now?).

Valuethinker
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:33 am

McGilicutty wrote:If you're feeling like you missed out, take 5% or 10% of your portfolio and dip a toe in the water. Here's a list of a few speculative stocks that have all done well this year, that have market caps less than $10 billion, and that are not even in the S&P 500:

OLED, AAOI, IAC, SQ, IRBT

Now, I'm not endorsing any of the above stocks (are any other individual stocks for that matter), but if you want to shoot for the moon, there are definitely stocks out there today that are going to outperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin.
And if only I had a crystal ball to tell me which ones ;-).

ddurrett896
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by ddurrett896 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:35 am

pascal wrote: Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?
Odds are if someone is buying the above, they are also buying other stocks.

My FIL buys Amazon, Tesla and 30 other stocks and always tells me how well Amazon and Tesla are doing and the $ he's made. He has the profit/loss of his portfolio in excel with the % return. I asked him to total all 30 stocks and give me and average - it was around 7%. I showed him my SP500 that holds most of my $ and last year it returned 11%. To add, I didn't have to spend 1 minute of time watching the stock prices and buying at certain points.

Moral of story - my return was 50% greater and required 1/1000 of the time!

LiterallyIronic
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by LiterallyIronic » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:45 am

pascal wrote:Does anyone else feel that way?
Nope. Before you mentioned it, I had no idea those three stocks had increased over the last four years. I know the stock market as a whole has gone up over the last four years, but I couldn't tell you if Google, Apple, Microsoft, or anyone else has gone up or down. I know I haven't purchased any new hardware or software from those three in the last four years, nor do I have Amazon Prime, Netflix, or a Tesla, so I haven't been much help.

Admiral
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Admiral » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:12 am

There was this recent article that, in fact, the FANG gang is responsible for a large (even outsized) portion of the gains in the broader market. So, if you own the market, you've had very good returns but without the volatility. Not 300% returns, but why be greedy?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/busi ... tflix.html
For example, the current stock market size of the Faang companies is $2.4 trillion, or about 13 percent of the size of the United States economy.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by CyclingDuo » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:08 pm

pascal wrote:Hi,

Some lunch room conversations at work indicated that some people seem to have made a killing in at least one of these companies. That got me thinking that the reason I didnt own any of these was because I owned the total stock market funds and wouldn't want to risk individual stocks. But these stock tickers meteoric rise in the past 4 years makes me feel that I missed the bus on these stocks :confused

Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?

I don't want to divert from the Boglehead philosophy but things do seem beguiling at times :twisted:
Well, some air is getting let out of them today - so have at it after the dust settles. :mrgreen:

uncaD
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by uncaD » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:18 pm

No, but I do feel like I missed out on Bitcoin....

PVW
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by PVW » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:22 pm

pascal wrote:Hindsight bias I suppose.
If you want to cure yourself of hindsight bias, make some predictions now and see how they do in the future. But then I guess there is the possibility your predictions will work out and you can easily mistake luck for skill.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by roflwaffle » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:20 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
roflwaffle wrote:Yup on Tesla, although hindsight is really 20/20. I'm mostly disappointed in myself for being unreasonably risk averse, although that applies to more than just Tesla.
My first memory of Tesla is watching their POS roadster constantly break on Top Gear.

Think of how many boutique car companies are featured on that show. Most of their cars actually worked.
I doubt that was a Tesla thing. Top Gear was notoriously hard on anything "green". They liberally used any and all artistic license available. :moneybag

http://jalopnik.com/5115617/shocking-sc ... t-of-juice

Granted, that wasn't as bad as the Prius vs diesel (BMW I think?) race. The only thing they could have done to make it easier on the diesel would be to have the Prius tow it. :mrgreen:

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:29 pm

roflwaffle wrote:Yup on Tesla, although hindsight is really 20/20. I'm mostly disappointed in myself for being unreasonably risk averse, although that applies to more than just Tesla.
Why? Did you really believe (and do you believe now) that you have extraordinary powers of stock picking?
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

wolf359
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by wolf359 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:33 pm

Tech crash cured me of this feeling.

I did not miss out on Cisco, WorldCom, Qualcomm, or CMGI. I caught them and rode them up and into a buzzsaw.

At least I made money on Cisco. It only took 15 years for it to recover.

Some of my holdings from that time period did well, but now I recognize that it was pure luck.

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Will do good
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Will do good » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:49 pm

No, I got APPL at $3.28 and BH 8 years ago and I feel very lucky.

roflwaffle
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by roflwaffle » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:55 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
roflwaffle wrote:Yup on Tesla, although hindsight is really 20/20. I'm mostly disappointed in myself for being unreasonably risk averse, although that applies to more than just Tesla.
Why? Did you really believe (and do you believe now) that you have extraordinary powers of stock picking?
Nope. I just happened to invest an inordinate amount of time researching electric vehicles and thought that Tesla had the best approach to EV manufacturing. They were the first to use inexpensive commodity 18650 cells in a robust BMS instead of relatively expensive large format cells with a relatively simple BMS.

Obviously one of the downsides was that the pack could roast the whole car if there was enough physical damage, but they've updated their design to minimize the chances of that happening, and they're beating the stuffing out of everyone else in terms of battery costs. With Jeff Dahn on their team, I think they're going to do very well in the near term (next decade or so), and there's a chance the 3 could have a battery pack that lasts the life of the car (a decade or two and several hundred thousand miles).

Granted, even if I thought I was right in hindsight, I could be wrong about my last statement. What I really need is a crystal ball disclaimer in my sig.
:sharebeer

Edit - The other thing I felt I was too conservative about was purchasing land during the great recession. That was in part because I felt I was unreasonably risk averse, and also because I made some mistakes comparing housing/land costs at the time to real housing/land costs in the past. It's not like I felt I could pick stocks at all, just that the stock for one company happened to align really well with something I spent a lot of my free time researching.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:35 pm

Nah. I drive a Tesla, watch Netflix, and buy almost everything using Amazon Prime.

Oh. You meant the stocks? No, the only individual stock I still own is one lonely share of BRK.A.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:49 pm

I don't feel like I missed out. It sure is nice enjoying the bliss of owning the market and not having to worry about what sort of information I need to digest in order to decide whether or not to buy or sell my basket of stocks. I am grateful for the Peter Lynch book One Up on Wall Street because it inspired me to get into the stock market. I did ok with my basket of 5 or so stocks but am doing much better with the John Bogle philosophy.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:54 pm

roflwaffle wrote:Nope. I just happened to invest an inordinate amount of time researching electric vehicles and thought that Tesla had the best approach to EV manufacturing. They were the first to use inexpensive commodity 18650 cells in a robust BMS instead of relatively expensive large format cells with a relatively simple BMS.
And no one else knew that?
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by bayview » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:25 pm

pascal wrote:Hi,

Some lunch room conversations at work indicated that some people seem to have made a killing in at least one of these companies. That got me thinking that the reason I didnt own any of these was because I owned the total stock market funds and wouldn't want to risk individual stocks. But these stock tickers meteoric rise in the past 4 years makes me feel that I missed the bus on these stocks :confused

Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?

I don't want to divert from the Boglehead philosophy but things do seem beguiling at times :twisted:
No, they and their friends (top 10 stocks included in TSM) are already 1/6 of TSM. If anything, I'm uncomfortable at having so large an exposure to them.

I have other (more fun) ways of wasting my time than thinking about what I could do if I had a time machine to go back and invest in hot stocks Back Then.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

lodestone18
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by lodestone18 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:17 pm

Sure did miss on Tesla.

EddyB
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by EddyB » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:29 pm

BolderBoy wrote:
pascal wrote:Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.
Completely and utterly hindsight bias. Notice my second tagline below.

My father always fancied himself an excellent stock picker (he wasn't). For my 50th birthday, he gifted me $1500 worth of a fantastic-and-poised-to-rocket-to-the-heavens stock in a company called "KMart". Within a few years the stock was worthless.

... and you think you can pick 'em better? Why?
Kmart! So last century! WebVan! That's the future (well, it was, once).

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Tycoon
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Tycoon » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:34 pm

Nope.
...I might be just beginning | I might be near the end. Enya | | C'est la vie

TravelforFun
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TravelforFun » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:38 pm

Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook, Apple, and Bitcoin all getting killed today ... and I own all of them.

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unclescrooge
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by unclescrooge » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:16 pm

pascal wrote:Hi,

Some lunch room conversations at work indicated that some people seem to have made a killing in at least one of these companies. That got me thinking that the reason I didnt own any of these was because I owned the total stock market funds and wouldn't want to risk individual stocks. But these stock tickers meteoric rise in the past 4 years makes me feel that I missed the bus on these stocks :confused

Yes, I get the argument that owning the total stock market owns portions of AMZN/NFLX/TSLA. But the more I think about these tickers the more I feel that these were not that risky back then. Hindsight bias I suppose.

Does anyone else feel that way? Did anyone else act on similar impulses and purchase stocks like these?

I don't want to divert from the Boglehead philosophy but things do seem beguiling at times :twisted:
Let me share a similar story. Urns bout about FAANG, but not too dissimilar.

Yesterday, I had drinks and dinner with two super nerds.

I knew one guy. He was the main coder from when I interned at a quant hedge fund. The other guy was his friend, a mathematician from Russia.

My buddy made over a million dollars from bitcoin. His buddy made about five million.

This comprised of about 95% of their net worth, with the rest being cash. They're both unemployed.

He told me to buy bitcoin when it was $30. I ignored him.

Do I regret not buying?

No.

Would I switch places with him?

Not a chance.

I understand how to design a portfolio that doesn't hinge on the speculative success of one thing, has a greater than 50% probability of success, and lets me sleep well at night.

So i missed out on bitcoin, lite coin, etherum, etc.

Eh, there's always a bull market somewhere. I'll catch the next one.

harvestbook
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by harvestbook » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:29 pm

By holding the total stock market, I already own the NEXT wave of breakout stars.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

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market timer
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by market timer » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:31 pm

I feel like I missed out on working at companies like AMZN, FB, and GOOG. Despite being household names, these companies were not even on my radar as potential employers when I was looking for my first job 10 years ago. However, my background and personality are perfectly suited for tech. So, while I don't fault myself for not buying their shares, I feel like I should have been smarter in my job search. The RSUs would probably have been worth several million dollars if I'd been in tech these past 10 years.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Spedward » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:18 pm

I had LARGE positions in MSFT and NFLX in the 2010 time frame. I was dumb with a bunch of money, so I took large positions in them.

I calculated what I would have today if I would have kept them, and it is ALOT. But at the end of the day, I would looking at the market about 10 times an hour to see what direction my holdings were going - I was driving me crazy and I hated it. Best then I ever did was sell MSFT in the low-mid 30s. Peice of mind is nice.

Then I rode up Tesla from 90 to 120, back to 90 and sold at about 115.

I am not cut out for that kind of stuff.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:23 pm

TravelforFun wrote:Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook, Apple, and Bitcoin all getting killed today ... and I own all of them.
Certainly John Bogle wouldn't have us to think about one day only. I recall hearing him saying that perhaps a high dividend index fund might be something to consider. So I bought the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF, VYM, and that is up .65% today. I have said in earlier posts that I have had some success with individual stocks, but I really prefer indexing today rather than the stressful deal of watching individual stocks.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by roflwaffle » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:16 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
roflwaffle wrote:Nope. I just happened to invest an inordinate amount of time researching electric vehicles and thought that Tesla had the best approach to EV manufacturing. They were the first to use inexpensive commodity 18650 cells in a robust BMS instead of relatively expensive large format cells with a relatively simple BMS.
And no one else knew that?
I don't know how many people knew about that, or how well Tesla's BMS did at managing cell and ultimate pack lifespan. I imagine some knew, and most didn't know. I don't know what advantages the vast majority of companies have over their competitors, and I imagine that's common. The only reason I knew about Tesla's approach is because researching EVs was a hobby. I wouldn't be surprised if other people who spend a bunch of their time researching a specific topic would have a better than average feeling about how a related company would do, but most people wouldn't.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by kjvmartin » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:45 pm

Just pick the next one.

duuuuuude
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by duuuuuude » Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:19 am

Isn't the problem knowing when to buy and sell them?

You have to be correct at least twice to maximize the earnings/return. Then you have to parlay that action to make even more.

I picked up NFLX at $86...and sold at $125 after some days of volatility. Thought I did ok...better cashing out now than getting back down to $100!

Well, as of yesterday it was $166+, and closed at $158 today. I could have doubled my money!..But I've let the "what if" go pretty easily.

I've learned that it's just as much fun knowing the tickers and current prices to own them. Kind of like being at the roulette table guessing on the side what number/color will pop up without having any money down to bet. You let other's place the actual bets.

I see VTI as the house and owning the whole roulette table. Nothing high flying, but you know you'll win in the long run.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TravelforFun » Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:39 am

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
TravelforFun wrote:Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook, Apple, and Bitcoin all getting killed today ... and I own all of them.
Certainly John Bogle wouldn't have us to think about one day only. I recall hearing him saying that perhaps a high dividend index fund might be something to consider. So I bought the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF, VYM, and that is up .65% today. I have said in earlier posts that I have had some success with individual stocks, but I really prefer indexing today rather than the stressful deal of watching individual stocks.
I'm not stressed at all. I'm sticking with them because the majority of my investment is in index funds.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by IngognitoUSA » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:45 am

Lost $2k on NVDA yesterday. Bought in morning on Citibank price target, got sold on stop loss in about 3 hrs after it being called casino stocks. Fang got killed on same day. Better to stay in ETF.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:47 am

TravelforFun wrote:
Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
TravelforFun wrote:Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook, Apple, and Bitcoin all getting killed today ... and I own all of them.
Certainly John Bogle wouldn't have us to think about one day only. I recall hearing him saying that perhaps a high dividend index fund might be something to consider. So I bought the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF, VYM, and that is up .65% today. I have said in earlier posts that I have had some success with individual stocks, but I really prefer indexing today rather than the stressful deal of watching individual stocks.
I'm not stressed at all. I'm sticking with them because the majority of my investment is in index funds.

Great plan. I still have a relatively small amount in stocks myself, just not those.

sambb
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by sambb » Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:18 am

I held AAPL for a long time, and thank goodness I did, instead of listening to advice on this board. Sold it at a large profit, and it was great.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:31 pm

sambb wrote:I held AAPL for a long time, and thank goodness I did, instead of listening to advice on this board. Sold it at a large profit, and it was great.
I think that there is some fabulous advice available on this board. I find it interesting that John Bogle himself feels more comfortable with US Equities and the standard Boglehead advice recommends some International exposure. So within the realm of do it yourself index investing there is some variation of opinion exactly how to do things. I think it is great to have the Bogleheads and I appreciate the feedback and help as I don't take the advice I heard years ago to get professional help with the investments.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by pkcrafter » Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:49 pm

Pascal,

If the 17th century Pascal were here today, he would surely assert that indexing is the way to invest. :happy


Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:54 pm

pkcrafter wrote:Pascal,

If the 17th century Pascal were here today, he would surely assert that indexing is the way to invest. :happy


Paul
I agree! In reading Bogle's books Bogle mentions Pascal so you probably are correct. :wink:

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Leif
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by Leif » Sun Jun 11, 2017 11:40 pm

About as much as missing out of winning my rarely purchased lottery ticket.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by SGM » Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:48 am

Well I own these in the TSM but I don't do much purchasing of individual stocks anymore. Mostly I winnow down my long held individual purchase with large capital gains with one eye on the tax man. I will be seeing two brothers who still actively invest in individual stocks which they have been doing for over 50 years. They are in their mid 80s. I look forward to hearing what they are purchasing now. I suspect they own all 3 of these tech high risers and Google as well. It is safer than talking about politics as the brother have diametrically opposite opinions on that subject.

I had purchased some MSFT some time ago, but I was already considering MSFT a stalwart by then and didn't think it would grow much, but it has recently peaked. Maybe I can brag to the brothers about that.

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StevieG72
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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by StevieG72 » Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:25 am

I am sure many people have thought "if only I invested $ in"

The problem is for every homerun there is 1000 strikes.

Even those that did invest likely wished they invested more.
Fools think their own way is right, but the wise listen to others.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by alfaspider » Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:16 am

Johnnie wrote:Tesla, are you kidding? It's a Potemkin car company that is but a minor political wind-shift away from total evaporation. An eliminated tax subsidy here, a bad report on safety or battery disposals or cup holders, etc., and someone hand Musk a robe because he has no clothes.

Don't believe me? Fine, but my story is at least as plausible as his, and that's the point - you gonna bet your retirement on that?

Here's what I really wanted to say though: Aren't the red-hot FANG, or "flirty thirty" or whatever stocks all ultra-mega caps that make up a small but noticeable percentage of the total market fund?
Pets.com was a potemkin company- their entire pitch was basically "internet, yay!" By contrast, Tesla has a real product line. Have you driven or spent any time in a Model S/X? Drive one and it will make sense. They have a very innovative product. Probably not what I would spend my money on, but they truly drive like nothing else on the road. The type of person spending $100k+ on one of those isn't going to be broken by a few thousand bucks in tax subsidy. They've had good and bad reports on safety- hasn't really hurt them.

That being said, they face a monumental task of meeting the expectations their share price puts on them. Going mid-market and trying to compete in the $35-45k vehicle space won't be easy- and their stock has already priced in complete success. Even if I were in the game of buying individual companies, I wouldn't speculate on them.
Last edited by alfaspider on Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by alfaspider » Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:19 am

StevieG72 wrote:I am sure many people have thought "if only I invested $ in"

The problem is for every homerun there is 1000 strikes.

Even those that did invest likely wished they invested more.
Exactly.

If you knew in advance the roulette wheel would come up 42, it would make sense to put your life savings into betting on that spin. But not knowing in advance, just about everyone would agree you'd be a fool to put your life savings in a casino game. If someone were to do it and win, you'd rightly conclude that person was a lucky fool, rather than a smart person. For some reason, people seem to think stocks are somehow different.

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Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:36 am

alfaspider wrote:Tesla has a real product line. Have you driven or spent any time in a Model S/X? Drive one and it will make sense. They have a very innovative product. Probably not what I would spend my money on, but they truly drive like nothing else on the road. The type of person spending $100k+ on one of those isn't going to be broken by a few thousand bucks in tax subsidy. They've had good and bad reports on safety- hasn't really hurt them.

That being said, they face a monumental task of meeting the expectations their share price puts on them. Going mid-market and trying to compete in the $35-45k vehicle space won't be easy- and their stock has already priced in complete success. Even if I were in the game of buying individual companies, I wouldn't speculate on them.
Exactly. I drive a Model X, and would happily buy another for my wife (long story). That said, I don't own the stock (except indirectly through TSM).

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