"the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

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mancich
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"the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby mancich » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:00 pm

Has anyone read it yet? I'm most of the way through it and find his discussion about exponential technologies very interesting. He plugs the iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) a little, though I will stick with my 3 fund portfolio, thanks very much :sharebeer But overall, an interesting book.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Jack FFR1846 » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:02 pm

I haven't read his book but listen to his radio show. Interesting where he first lists financial advisers as one of the first jobs that will be replaced by robots.
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby mancich » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:05 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:I haven't read his book but listen to his radio show. Interesting where he first lists financial advisers as one of the first jobs that will be replaced by robots.


Yes, quite ironic :D
I will say, in fairness to him, he states clearly that he and his firm do not and have not received any compensation from Blackrock, Morningstar, or any third party for his part in helping create, distribute, or manage this ETF

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:17 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:I haven't read his book but listen to his radio show. Interesting where he first lists financial advisers as one of the first jobs that will be replaced by robots.


It's going to be a while, most folks still like the "touchy,feely" of talking to a live human, seeing a live human. The current crop of "robo-advisers" are not doing such a hot job yet and charge too much for their "services".
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby notinuse » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:27 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:It's going to be a while, most folks still like the "touchy,feely" of talking to a live human, seeing a live human. The current crop of "robo-advisers" are not doing such a hot job yet and charge too much for their "services".


The same might be said of most human financial advisors. :happy

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby SGM » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:34 am

I am not a fan of Ric Edelman. Some of his statements in the past about Vanguard have been wrong. He states the obvious and is a little late to the party. He may be helpful to the newbies. I don't know what his company charges to manage investments, but it would be too much for me to pay regardless. I have been a DIYer for about 40 years now.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby grettman » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:11 am

I find his discussions on exponential technology boring and frustrating. I understand the concept and agree with it but it isn't really actionable. Like I am going to plan on some future something and input that variable in my financial planning scenarios. Sounds like crystal ball/timing stuff if you ask me. I don't see any value in predicting/planning future technologies other than as entertainment.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby MoonOrb » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:59 am

I found his books to be really helpful to me 15-20 years ago because they were highly readable, entertaining introductions to investing and personal finance that got many of the fundamental ideas right. I'm way less enamored of him now that I have learned so much more nuance. But I'll always be grateful, because it was really his books that moved me from having zero clue about what I was doing (and possibly having some truly dumb and harmful ideas) to deciding that I needed to buy and hold and diversify. I'd say he got me about 80% along where I needed to be, actually.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby canbonbon » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:36 am

Just started reading it. Over the last couple of years I have read many finance books and also most of his books. In the end, I realized that making everything simple is the best thing. So took a couple of years to remove the investment clutter. I now proudly own a 4 ETF portfolio (except employer managed 401K where I don't have that option). I am reading this book for entertainment and also for knowledge. I doubt if it will have any affect on my investing habits.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:08 pm

notinuse wrote:
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:It's going to be a while, most folks still like the "touchy,feely" of talking to a live human, seeing a live human. The current crop of "robo-advisers" are not doing such a hot job yet and charge too much for their "services".


The same might be said of most human financial advisors. :happy


+1 Agree. :beer
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby rec7 » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:53 am

I am enjoying the book and the radio show. I am a Boglehead but he makes some great points. I started out with Bob Brinker but like Ric Edelman better.
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Jags4186 » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:05 am

grettman wrote:I find his discussions on exponential technology boring and frustrating. I understand the concept and agree with it but it isn't really actionable. Like I am going to plan on some future something and input that variable in my financial planning scenarios. Sounds like crystal ball/timing stuff if you ask me. I don't see any value in predicting/planning future technologies other than as entertainment.


100% agree. As long as you hold the total market you will get whatever benefit hypothetical exponential technologies would give you anyway. The S&P 500 has seen computers, air travel, expanded international trade, the internet, GPS, satellite, the space age, automation, robots, etc. etc. etc. and still has returned 10% CAGR long term. Why would it change now?

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Youngblood » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:12 am

Years past I have read several of his books and enjoyed them. While working in the Washington D.C. area I attended a couple of his seminars/presentations. They were compelling and useful. They were all free but, of course, ended with an opportunity to have an individual follow-up with one of his reps (maybe even him) and turn money management over to him for an AUM fee.

If the book was available in our library or digitally, I would check it out and skim through. Even one good idea would be worth that much effort.

Anything in particular you find worthwhile in reading it?

YB
"I made my money by selling too soon." | Bernard M. Baruch

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby stemikger » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:30 am

Not a fan of Edelman. He is all over the place with this rambling radio show and his convoluted books. It's almost like he purposely never gets to the point. He reminds me too much of a used car salesman.
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Flymore » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:51 am

Some of the AI future stuff is hype to sell books and news still, there are some real concerns and possibilities hard to ignore.
Edelman reversed his opinion on car leasing (said he leased his car now) because exponential technology will make cars rapidly obsolete and buying them is not a good idea. :oops:
Does not seem like a good reason to lease cars.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby unclescrooge » Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:21 am

stemikger wrote:Not a fan of Edelman. He is all over the place with this rambling radio show and his convoluted books. It's almost like he purposely never gets to the point. He reminds me too much of a used car salesman.


If he got to the point, his show would be one episode, five minutes long.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Youngblood » Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:27 am

Flymore wrote:Some of the AI future stuff is hype to sell books and news still, there are some real concerns and possibilities hard to ignore.
Edelman reversed his opinion on car leasing (said he leased his car now) because exponential technology will make cars rapidly obsolete and buying them is not a good idea. :oops:
Does not seem like a good reason to lease cars.


Interesting, I think it's a good thing when a person is able to change his/her mind when conditions change or one has new knowledge.

One of my neighbors just got rid of her car in order to purchase a new one with all the new safety bells and whistles. She believes that age is a factor in her needing these options. Is the length of a lease enough time for significant change to occur? Wouldn't a better answer be perhaps?

YB
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby jharkin » Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:18 am

Flymore wrote:Some of the AI future stuff is hype to sell books and news still, there are some real concerns and possibilities hard to ignore.
Edelman reversed his opinion on car leasing (said he leased his car now) because exponential technology will make cars rapidly obsolete and buying them is not a good idea. :oops:
Does not seem like a good reason to lease cars.


Interesting. I attended a lecture recently given by a colleague who attended this years Abundance 360 CIO/CTO conference. One of the themes of the conference was autonomous cars and a speaker was making a prediction that in 5-8 years self driving cars would be ubiquitous on the road and within a decade it would be made illegal to drive your own car. Basically you would just call a self driving Uber anytime you want to go somewhere, and no child under 5 years old today will ever learn to drive.

Personally I think that's wildly optimistic thinking and commented as much during Q&A. I think whoever came up wit that idea...
#1 - Is in a bubble just considering how people live and travel in major western cities
#2 - Is oblivious to the deeply ingrained car culture in this country (and elsewhere) and underestimates people's willingness to give up control
#3 - Has not seen the statistics that show the average age of the existing auto fleet is well over 10 years.


I CAN see long haul trucking being automated within a decade. I CAN see farm tractors and combines being automated. I CAN see major cities like New York, LA, Tokyo having fleets of self driving taxis. I CAN see a lot of automated cars in continental Europe where the passenger rail system is highly developed and a public transit centered culture already exists.

I DONT see the farmer in rural Kansas calling a self driving Uber pickup all the way from Wichita to go pick up a load of feed.
I DONT see myself calling an self drive uber minivan to take my family on a camping trip to the mountains of New Hampshire...
I DONT see a fleet of self driving rickshaws driving the highways between Mumbai and Delhi...

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby sreynard » Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:51 pm

jharkin wrote:
Flymore wrote:Some of the AI future stuff is hype to sell books and news still, there are some real concerns and possibilities hard to ignore.
Edelman reversed his opinion on car leasing (said he leased his car now) because exponential technology will make cars rapidly obsolete and buying them is not a good idea. :oops:
Does not seem like a good reason to lease cars.


Interesting. I attended a lecture recently given by a colleague who attended this years Abundance 360 CIO/CTO conference. One of the themes of the conference was autonomous cars and a speaker was making a prediction that in 5-8 years self driving cars would be ubiquitous on the road and within a decade it would be made illegal to drive your own car. Basically you would just call a self driving Uber anytime you want to go somewhere, and no child under 5 years old today will ever learn to drive.

Personally I think that's wildly optimistic thinking and commented as much during Q&A. I think whoever came up wit that idea...
#1 - Is in a bubble just considering how people live and travel in major western cities
#2 - Is oblivious to the deeply ingrained car culture in this country (and elsewhere) and underestimates people's willingness to give up control
#3 - Has not seen the statistics that show the average age of the existing auto fleet is well over 10 years.


I CAN see long haul trucking being automated within a decade. I CAN see farm tractors and combines being automated. I CAN see major cities like New York, LA, Tokyo having fleets of self driving taxis. I CAN see a lot of automated cars in continental Europe where the passenger rail system is highly developed and a public transit centered culture already exists.

I DONT see the farmer in rural Kansas calling a self driving Uber pickup all the way from Wichita to go pick up a load of feed.
I DONT see myself calling an self drive uber minivan to take my family on a camping trip to the mountains of New Hampshire...
I DONT see a fleet of self driving rickshaws driving the highways between Mumbai and Delhi...


I DON'T see an autonomous car driving highway 101 from San Fransisco to Seattle. . . . Some of the minor NorCal "highways"? Forget about it!
Sure, maybe a truck could someday drive I5, but I can't picture one navigating the local streets and backing into the Costco dock. Maybe they could pull off at a truck stop and a human supervisor hop on board?

Close to 30 years ago I used to watch an autonomous tractor running around an empty field across from the engineering building at UC Davis. You know what I've never seen? One do any productive work. I've also never seen one on an actual farm. Maybe there's some down in the central valley, but I've never seen one on a 100 acre dairy farm. This is one of the few areas I agree with Musk. Autonomous vehicles are probably a pipe dream. They may eventually be used in a few limit situations, in a few limited locations, but probably will not be widespread for at least another 50 years. Maybe a 100. Reminds me of the flying cars in Popular Science when I was a kid. Still never seen one during my daily commute. Don't see any personal jet packs either.

As a software engineer that tests hardware, it would take at least a decade or two of successful use before I would give one a try.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby stemikger » Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:54 pm

unclescrooge wrote:
stemikger wrote:Not a fan of Edelman. He is all over the place with this rambling radio show and his convoluted books. It's almost like he purposely never gets to the point. He reminds me too much of a used car salesman.


If he got to the point, his show would be one episode, five minutes long.


+1
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby CassiusRex » Fri Apr 07, 2017 7:26 am

The Truth About His Radio Show is that I changed the channel whenever he started talking about self-driving cars or whatever other technology was in the news. I tuned in for investing information, not sci-fi. Interestingly, he's not on my local news talk station anymore. They've opted to add another local "retirement planner" with the can't-miss secret to maximizing your Social Security and protecting you nest egg.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby teen persuasion » Fri Apr 07, 2017 8:04 pm

Youngblood wrote:Years past I have read several of his books and enjoyed them. While working in the Washington D.C. area I attended a couple of his seminars/presentations. They were compelling and useful. They were all free but, of course, ended with an opportunity to have an individual follow-up with one of his reps (maybe even him) and turn money management over to him for an AUM fee.

If the book was available in our library or digitally, I would check it out and skim through. Even one good idea would be worth that much effort.

Anything in particular you find worthwhile in reading it?

YB


A complimentary copy was sent to my library by B&N just this week. As there was already a bib record stub in the system for it, I added it to the catalog immediately. So check your local library!

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby Youngblood » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:07 am

teen persuasion wrote:
Youngblood wrote:Years past I have read several of his books and enjoyed them. While working in the Washington D.C. area I attended a couple of his seminars/presentations. They were compelling and useful. They were all free but, of course, ended with an opportunity to have an individual follow-up with one of his reps (maybe even him) and turn money management over to him for an AUM fee.

If the book was available in our library or digitally, I would check it out and skim through. Even one good idea would be worth that much effort.

Anything in particular you find worthwhile in reading it?

YB


A complimentary copy was sent to my library by B&N just this week. As there was already a bib record stub in the system for it, I added it to the catalog immediately. So check your local library!


I did a search using Overdrive but noting at the local library. I really don't have a great urge to read this book but if it were available in e format as I mentioned above, I would probably enjoy skimming it.

Thanks for the suggestion though.

YB
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby nisiprius » Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:37 am

Haven't read the book but the very phrase "exponential technologies" has my BS detectors pinging left, right, and center. (Anyone remember "Future Shock?") What are they supposed to be? A quick Google turns up c--p like this:
An exponential entrepreneur is an entrepreneur who is leaning on exponentially accelerating technology — so network sensors, AI, robotics, synthetic biology, 3D printing — these technologies that are all on exponential growth curves.
Uh, friends, most things in the world are on exponential growth curves. My Vanguard money market fund is on an exponential growth curve, it's just that it happens to be growing at an exponential rate of 0.60%/year. That means it is going to double my money every 120 years and is on track to hit the singularity in about the year 2717.

Everybody has always been able to see that certain industries are going to be big, big I tell ya, big. In 1928-1929 it was radio. In the late 1970s personal computers. In the 1990s, the Internet. In a sense, all of these dreams panned out--and I'm only talking about the ones that did, of course. There were many technologies that looked like candidates to be "exponential" that weren't, and how quickly we forget them. Bubble memory.

Drones? Flying cars? I remember seeing this one in "Your Weekly Reader" when I was in elementary school in the 1950s. It was made by Hiller Aviation, which exists to day literally as a museum. Well, the company was actually acquired by Fairchild Aviation, so, uh, the stock in it... ummm... Fairchild... Fairchild? :)

Image
I guess the jury is still out on large scale power from hydrogen fusion but that's one that's been just around the corner since the Tokamak was invented in the 1950s.

Anyone remember the "Wired" index and mutual fund? This was tied to the "new economy," went up 81% in its first year, and Investec (whatever they were) created a mutual fund, called either the Wired Index Fund or the Guinness Flight Wired Index Fund? It failed so spectacularly that I can't find a chart, or numbers, or even its ticker symbol.

Burton Malkiel talks about all this stuff in A Random Walk Down Wall Street where he refers to "story stocks" that encourage investor to build "castles in the air." His book has always discussed his personal philosophy of stock picking although it has gotten less and less emphasis in later editions, but his personal philosophy, borrowing a line from Ibsen, is for "castles in the air--but with a firm foundation." The trick of course is to identify them.

I don't know what an undifferentiated index-like purchase of personal computer stocks in 1980 would have led to, or how many of those early companies even issued stocks, but it was by no means obvious at the time that Apple would succeed and Exidy, Cromemco, Tandy Radio Shack, Atari, Commodore... and just a bit later, Osborne and Columbia (the very very serious MBA-type all-business companies) would not.
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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby 3wood » Wed May 17, 2017 9:00 pm

Just read the book and it was interesting to read about how technology might impact us in the future. I couldn't help but think that I am in a fine position with my well diversified Vanguard target date fund. Companies that will become tomorrow's leaders will be represented and those that don't make it won't.

The one takeaway I think might be important is how lifespans might increase with improved medical advancements. Planning for a 40 or 50 year retirement might be prudent.

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby garlandwhizzer » Thu May 18, 2017 12:31 pm

nisi wrote:
Haven't read the book but the very phrase "exponential technologies" has my BS detectors pinging left, right, and center. (Anyone remember "Future Shock?") What are they supposed to be? A quick Google turns up c--p like this:


1+

My BS detectors were also pinging like crazy. Predicting the future of tech or anything else tends to be wildly inaccurate. If brilliant people with all the data available in the present were reliably able to predict even near term future events, hedge funds would massively outperform indexes which of course they do the opposite of.

Garland Whizzer

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby willthrill81 » Thu May 18, 2017 12:41 pm

nisiprius wrote:Haven't read the book but the very phrase "exponential technologies" has my BS detectors pinging left, right, and center. (Anyone remember "Future Shock?") What are they supposed to be? A quick Google turns up c--p like this:
An exponential entrepreneur is an entrepreneur who is leaning on exponentially accelerating technology — so network sensors, AI, robotics, synthetic biology, 3D printing — these technologies that are all on exponential growth curves.
Uh, friends, most things in the world are on exponential growth curves. My Vanguard money market fund is on an exponential growth curve, it's just that it happens to be growing at an exponential rate of 0.60%/year. That means it is going to double my money every 120 years and is on track to hit the singularity in about the year 2717.

Everybody has always been able to see that certain industries are going to be big, big I tell ya, big. In 1928-1929 it was radio. In the late 1970s personal computers. In the 1990s, the Internet. In a sense, all of these dreams panned out--and I'm only talking about the ones that did, of course. There were many technologies that looked like candidates to be "exponential" that weren't, and how quickly we forget them. Bubble memory.

Drones? Flying cars? I remember seeing this one in "Your Weekly Reader" when I was in elementary school in the 1950s. It was made by Hiller Aviation, which exists to day literally as a museum. Well, the company was actually acquired by Fairchild Aviation, so, uh, the stock in it... ummm... Fairchild... Fairchild? :)

Image
I guess the jury is still out on large scale power from hydrogen fusion but that's one that's been just around the corner since the Tokamak was invented in the 1950s.

Anyone remember the "Wired" index and mutual fund? This was tied to the "new economy," went up 81% in its first year, and Investec (whatever they were) created a mutual fund, called either the Wired Index Fund or the Guinness Flight Wired Index Fund? It failed so spectacularly that I can't find a chart, or numbers, or even its ticker symbol.

Burton Malkiel talks about all this stuff in A Random Walk Down Wall Street where he refers to "story stocks" that encourage investor to build "castles in the air." His book has always discussed his personal philosophy of stock picking although it has gotten less and less emphasis in later editions, but his personal philosophy, borrowing a line from Ibsen, is for "castles in the air--but with a firm foundation." The trick of course is to identify them.

I don't know what an undifferentiated index-like purchase of personal computer stocks in 1980 would have led to, or how many of those early companies even issued stocks, but it was by no means obvious at the time that Apple would succeed and Exidy, Cromemco, Tandy Radio Shack, Atari, Commodore... and just a bit later, Osborne and Columbia (the very very serious MBA-type all-business companies) would not.


+1 :D

Remember 2001, A Space Odyssey? The world certainly changes, but it seems to change at a slower pace than many people think it will. I remember nearly 20 years ago hearing people say that 50% or more of brick-and-mortar retailers would be out of business in ten years due to the rapid growth of online retail. Ten years after that, online sales are a whopping 8.3% of all retail dollars. And so it goes.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

Postby chinto » Fri May 19, 2017 6:53 pm

One thing I look at when reading a book is the author's background and how it fits the topic they are writing about.

Another thing I look at is the press people have. There is more than one financial radio maven that spends an extraordinary amount of time an money having Internet postings and forums that portray them in a negative, yet truthful light eliminated.

I


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