Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.

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rgs92
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by rgs92 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:50 pm

Again, from recent posts, it sounds like 80/20 is becoming the new 60/40 (or 50/50).

Levett
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by Levett » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:53 pm

For the distinction between a republic and a modern democracy, the interview is worth the price of admission.

Bogle really is a deep thinker.

Lev

GoldenFinch
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:58 pm

rgs92 wrote:Amen Minesweep. :)
:thumbsup :happy

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ERMD
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by ERMD » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:03 pm

He's always leaned towards the conservative side of neutrality. This is not a huge stretch. Also, as noted above, the mods of this forum might ask Mr. Bogle -- is this discussion actionable?
between scotch and nothing, i'll take scotch. -- faulkner

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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by Yesterdaysnews » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:25 pm

What a great person. Go Bogle!

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nedsaid
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by nedsaid » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:24 pm

In discussions about the American Revolution, I joke that 40% were for Independence, 40% were for the crown, and 20% didn't understand the question. I further joke that in 2016, politics hadn't changed much and that polls today would have similar results.

I would say that concerns about the nation's ability to govern itself are not new. There is a famous quote from Benjamin Franklin when asked about what was accomplished at the Constitutional Convention. "A republic, if you can keep it," he said.

Of course, we fought a civil war to preserve the Union.

During the Great Depression, it seemed that fascism really was working and working better than our republic. Fortunately, we did not descend into fascism.

Before World War II, the country was evenly divided between intervention and isolationism.

As I was growing up during the Vietnam War and its aftermath, the country was bitterly divided and I wondered if the country would tear itself apart. As a grade schooler, it was evident to me that we were losing the cold war.

These concerns expressed by Bogle are nothing new. Each generation has to be prepared to pick up the torch and pass our republic on to the next generation.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by Dottie57 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:33 pm

rgs92 wrote:Again, from recent posts, it sounds like 80/20 is becoming the new 60/40 (or 50/50).

I guess a 50/50 split is very conservative then.

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in_reality
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by in_reality » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:36 pm

nedsaid wrote: Of course, we fought a civil war to preserve the Union.
People of my State supported the freeing of enslaved humans.

This is made clear by records in my State's historical society in which our decision to disobey the US Supreme Court's Dred Scott ruling (that African Americans were not citizens and so lacked legal standing) and to free visiting slaves per State law (slavery is illegal under our laws and has always been that way).

Public discussion in letters to the Editor at the time was centered around the fact that we might be ostracized from the Union for disobeying it's laws, but come what may -- human rights overshadow economic and political concerns.

I know what our motivations were at the time and nothing that anyone tries to say will change the historical records supporting my view. We disobeyed the Union before the war not really knowing what would happen next but only that what we were doing at the time was unquestionably right.

Our fight had nothing to do with "preserving the Union".

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randomizer
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by randomizer » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:11 am

minesweep wrote:And then there are the true Bogleheads who have a sleep at night investment plan with which they can stay the course.
Somewhere between 25:75 and 75:25 ought to do the trick.
87.5:12.5, EM tilt — HODL the course!

ftobin
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by ftobin » Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:00 am

Mr. Bogle definitely earns my respect. He is brilliant yet humble, and able to broach controversial subjects in a clear but non-inflamed manner.

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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by Call_Me_Op » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:04 am

To quote Bogle himself: "Stay the course."
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

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yukonjack
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by yukonjack » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:03 am

Remarkable interview. Most of Bogle's interviews are informative but I thought that this one had even more of his essence and wisdom. Thanks for posting.

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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by garlandwhizzer » Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:24 am

triceratop wrote:
I'm sure Bogle is speaking about international markets and countries, because the corollary to his recommendation to invest solely in Total U.S. Market for equities is that he doesn't believe political risk can show up in the U.S.
I believe that in the interview Bogle does show some concern about the future of democracy in the US based on his perception that many voters, perhaps a majority, don't examine issues carefully and simply vote perceived short term self-interest, what's good for them today rather than what's good for the country in the long without giving a lot of thought to the question. Concerns such as these don't tend to politely stop at the borders of the USA. The backlash of populism against "elites" is a world wide force in politics these days both internationally (Brexit) and in the US (Trump). Anyone who has lived in India, the world's most populous democracy, more than a billion citizens, multiple languages and cultures, knows its government is a bureaucratic nightmare. It makes you wonder if democratic government itself gets less effective and efficient as the size and diversity of the population and its government increase beyond a certain point. Still, as Jefferson said in response to someone railing about the new colonial government in the US, "Democracy is the worst from of government...next to all the others."

Garland Whizzer

nps
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by nps » Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:53 am

garlandwhizzer wrote:Still, as Jefferson said in response to someone railing about the new colonial government in the US, "Democracy is the worst from of government...next to all the others."
Did you mean Churchill?

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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:46 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:[ "Democracy is the worst from of government...next to all the others."

Garland Whizzer
Yep. What other choice do we have (besides investing)? If the S&P goes to zilch, your retirement portfolio will be about the 7th thing on your list of priorities. Canned goods/gold bars/bullets will be # 1. I'll simply stay the course and realize I cannot control the "deep risk" that is out there nor will I spend one minute on how to mitigate it, you can't.

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ERMD
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by ERMD » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:04 pm

nps wrote:
garlandwhizzer wrote:Still, as Jefferson said in response to someone railing about the new colonial government in the US, "Democracy is the worst from of government...next to all the others."
Did you mean Churchill?
..who also said that the best argument against democracy was a five minute discussion with the average voter.
between scotch and nothing, i'll take scotch. -- faulkner

CFR
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by CFR » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:39 pm

ERMD wrote:
nps wrote:
garlandwhizzer wrote:Still, as Jefferson said in response to someone railing about the new colonial government in the US, "Democracy is the worst from of government...next to all the others."
Did you mean Churchill?
..who also said that the best argument against democracy was a five minute discussion with the average voter.
Which is why we our great system is a representative republic, and not a democracy.

staythecourse
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by staythecourse » Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:06 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:because a problem without a proposed solution is basically a distraction.
Have nothing to add, but to let you know I will be stealing this excellent line. :D

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

garlandwhizzer
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Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

Post by garlandwhizzer » Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:48 pm

When giving a speech to the House of Commons in 1947, Churchill actually said this:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.
The "Indeed it has been said..." part indicates that Churchill is using someone else's words. Who first said it? I don't know for sure, but I believer the sense of it aligns with Jefferson's ideas. It is said in Virginia, where I grew up and where Jefferson lived and is revered, that he spoke those words to an unknown man during an argument about government. I can find no solid evidence that this actually occurred now that I look. It may very well be an apocryphal story told to me by my father, part of legend, not history. If I am in error about the source I apologize. As an amateur writer myself, I very much like these well chosen words and am pleased that one as great as Churchill, a great writer and orator with a biting sense of humor, used them even if he did not originate them. Whoever did originate them hit the nail on the head IMO.

Garland Whizzer

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LadyGeek
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Re: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:17 pm

I merged CULater's thread into here.

In reference to comments on the first page, politics and conjecture on economic policy are off-topic - regardless if Jack Bogle is discussing these issues.
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haranoth
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Re: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.

Post by haranoth » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:46 am

I found his note on (paraphrasing )" we are moving into more being a democracy rather than republic " bit interesting...
Wise guy...

carofe
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Re: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.

Post by carofe » Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:23 am

haranoth wrote:I found his note on (paraphrasing )" we are moving into more being a democracy rather than republic " bit interesting...
Wise guy...
Which is unfortunate, we would end up with only few big states of the union pretty much controlling the govt. and creating deeper divisions by making the other states feel they are not part of it really.
US Total Stock Market + Intermediate Term Bond. That's it.

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