willthrill81,willthrill81 wrote:I've already provided you with solid data which shows from 2004 to 2010, early withdrawals from tax advantaged accounts increased by a grand total of 2%, yet you're still on this kick that we should always be prepared to either drain a substantial portion of these accounts due to a job loss.KlangFool wrote:Given that most of us do not know whether our career will last 20 years. Then, the long-term return has no meaning to us. We do not have the time to get the return.
So, please stop using the long-term return number for us. We do not have the above average luck in term of career.
I know that our own personal experiences us bias our perceptions of the occurrence of those experiences in general, but the data simply do not support your viewpoint.
You are a professor. You are supposedly an expert with the statistic. But, you do not understand the basic concept of personal finance. You are giving advice to individuals over the Internet forum.
So, unless you can guarantee the person that he/she will not be forced into long-term employment and/or under-employment over 20 years, why should you use the long-term return number to convince them? We are not a statistic.
<< I've already provided you with solid data which shows from 2004 to 2010, early withdrawals from tax advantaged accounts increased by a grand total of 2%,>>
This has absolutely no meaning to us. We might be one of the 2%. Then, what? Are you going to support our family with your money? Ditto, we cannot be 4.8% unemployed.
Why is this so hard for you to understand? Statistic only works at the aggregate aka large number level. It does not work at the individual level. We are not a theory. We are real people and real family living on real income in the real world. Life happened as a matter of fact to us.