final review of 2016 sure things

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larryswedroe
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final review of 2016 sure things

Post by larryswedroe » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:29 am

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... right-2016

Wed should have up my list for 2017 sure things, wrote it several weeks ago and finally fitting it in.
Hope you find it helpful

Larry
PS an interesting exercise would be to keep your own diary of what you think are sure things for the coming year and then check back!

Fundhunter
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by Fundhunter » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:11 pm

Yes, helpful in reinforcing that these predictions are all pure bunk, although there must be a reason why so many people who fancy themselves as "experts" still give them. :(

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dwickenh
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by dwickenh » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:18 pm

Thanks Larry,

Being a contrarian never sounded better.

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

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larryswedroe
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by larryswedroe » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:40 pm

fundhunter
IMO it's mostly because they are not really in the business of forecasting--- instead they are in the business of fame!!!
And you don't get famous making "average" forecasts. That's why Harry Dent writes books with titles as he does, and so do so many others. And there will always be people whose beliefs tend to align with some outlandish forecast and confirmation bias sets in.
Larry

livesoft
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by livesoft » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:48 pm

Also showing the market was less volatile, in 2016, the number of days in which the S&P 500 changed value by more than 1% fell from 72 (16% of the trading days) to 48 (10% of the trading days),
Does that mean there were 450 to 480 trading days in 2016? I'm missing out on a lot of day trading if that is so. :)
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Portfolio7
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:00 pm

The 'sure things' are so often wrong you could almost use them as a contrarian indicator.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

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larryswedroe
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by larryswedroe » Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:23 pm

livesoft, I'll try and check those numbers again, thanks for pointing it out
Larry

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Clever_Username
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by Clever_Username » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:27 am

I love reading these articles. Fantastic as always.
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_ | | I survived my first downturn and all I got was this signature line.

Incognito
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by Incognito » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:26 am

Does that mean there were 450 to 480 trading days in 2016? I'm missing out on a lot of day trading if that is so. :)
Larry,

You don't need to check back. That statement is correct. It refers to difference of 1% days between 2015 & 2016 (72 - 48 = 24) which is 10% of 240 trading days.

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larryswedroe
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Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Post by larryswedroe » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:51 am

thanks Incognito for saving me the trouble
Larry

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