final review of 2016 sure things

[larryswedroe]

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... right-2016

Wed should have up my list for 2017 sure things, wrote it several weeks ago and finally fitting it in.
Hope you find it helpful

Larry
PS an interesting exercise would be to keep your own diary of what you think are sure things for the coming year and then check back!

[Fundhunter]

Yes, helpful in reinforcing that these predictions are all pure bunk, although there must be a reason why so many people who fancy themselves as "experts" still give them.

[dwickenh]

Thanks Larry,

Being a contrarian never sounded better.

Dan

[larryswedroe]

fundhunter
IMO it's mostly because they are not really in the business of forecasting--- instead they are in the business of fame!!!
And you don't get famous making "average" forecasts. That's why Harry Dent writes books with titles as he does, and so do so many others. And there will always be people whose beliefs tend to align with some outlandish forecast and confirmation bias sets in.
Larry

[livesoft]

Also showing the market was less volatile, in 2016, the number of days in which the S&P 500 changed value by more than 1% fell from 72 (16% of the trading days) to 48 (10% of the trading days),

Does that mean there were 450 to 480 trading days in 2016? I'm missing out on a lot of day trading if that is so.

[Portfolio7]

The 'sure things' are so often wrong you could almost use them as a contrarian indicator.

[larryswedroe]

livesoft, I'll try and check those numbers again, thanks for pointing it out
Larry

[Clever_Username]

I love reading these articles. Fantastic as always.

[Incognito]

Does that mean there were 450 to 480 trading days in 2016? I'm missing out on a lot of day trading if that is so.

Larry,

You don't need to check back. That statement is correct. It refers to difference of 1% days between 2015 & 2016 (72 - 48 = 24) which is 10% of 240 trading days.

[larryswedroe]

thanks Incognito for saving me the trouble
Larry