2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

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surfer1
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2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by surfer1 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:09 pm

Now that the 2017 Boglehead Contest is officially underway and all bids have been placed, I ran some graphs of the predictions. I posted this last year too, and I think it was both interesting and fun!

I'll leave it to the experts to draw any conclusions. As usual, however, Bogleheads have an overall positive outlook for the year - even if this is the most bearish sentiment year of all!

Here are the charts.

Bulls vs Bears Predictions by Year

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Bearish Sentiment by Year

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Are Predictions Bullish or Bearish in 2017?

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Prediction Trend for 2017

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Last edited by surfer1 on Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

tjgardner
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by tjgardner » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:15 pm

Is that bearish percentage for the last three years correct? Seems like it should be about 33% for this year.

gkaplan
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by gkaplan » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:43 pm

I think my prediction might skew your charts. I choose my street address each year as my prediction. My street address is 1926.

(Edited to correct grammar.)
Last edited by gkaplan on Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:53 pm

Surfer1:

Thank you for the colorful and interesting charts!

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

sport
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by sport » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:01 pm

At this time, all the predictions have not yet been entered in the contest.

surfer1
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by surfer1 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:17 pm

sport wrote:At this time, all the predictions have not yet been entered in the contest.


I noticed that too, on the official contest site. However, the predictions in the above charts come directly from the forum thread, not the contest site. :)

rarvesen
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by rarvesen » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:28 pm

surfer1 wrote:Now that the 2017 Boglehead Contest is officially underway and all bids have been placed, I ran some graphs of the predictions. I posted this last year too, and I think it was both interesting and fun!


Thanks for the charts surfer1, how do you pull the guesses from the forum thread? I think you might have a better technique than I do.

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sperry8
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by sperry8 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:49 pm

surfer1 wrote:Now that the 2017 Boglehead Contest is officially underway and all bids have been placed, I ran some graphs of the predictions. I posted this last year too, and I think it was both interesting and fun!

I'll leave it to the experts to draw any conclusions. As usual, however, Bogleheads have an overall positive outlook for the year - even if this is the most bearish sentiment year of all!

Here are the charts.

Bearish Sentiment by Year

Image


Thanks! This is great to see.

Are you able to easily show a chart with the average & median % bullish and avg & median % bearish guesses?

Would be nice to see just how much the bulls expect the S&P to rise vs just how much the bears expect it to fall.

Also - over all guesses what does the average boglehead think will occur in 2017?
Certainty is a requirement of ignorance. | Humbling Contest results: | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

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Taylor Larimore
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No One Can Forecast the Stock Market Except by Luck

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:18 pm

| Humbling Contest results: | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

sperry8:

You confirm what the Boglehead Contest is all about: No one can forecast the stock market except by luck.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

inbox788
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by inbox788 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:52 am

gkaplan wrote:I think my prediction might skew your charts. I choose my street address each year as my prediction. My street address is 1926

You're not the only one, but given all the possible predictions that may skew the results, the average between BH and experts is surprisingly close (less than 1% difference; 0.92489% to be more precise) BH average prediction is 6.85928% gain, while experts are less optimistic at 5.89444%
Bogleheads 2381.00 Experts 2359.18

The experts were mostly rounding their results (2300, 2300, 2300, 2325, 2326, 2350, 2350, 2400, 2400, 2400, 2500) and none were bearish. None were overly bullish, with the highest predicting 12.2% gains, while all the others were between 3.2-7.7%, a relatively tight range. The 2325 may have been a rounding to the nearest quarter, but 2326 is a strange seemingly random entry. FWIW, 2227 to 2325 AND 2228 to 2326 BOTH amount to 4.4% gains, if that's meaningful, or it could be coincidence. Maybe it was derived from some sort of forward PE ratio, which might be a rational method.

Two BH were highly bullish, making me think they were using the Dow near 20,000 as a starting point, and one guess would mean a 3% gain, but the other still needs an 80% gain if it were the Dow. And even if an extra zero was tagged on the end, it would still be the higher than the rest of the guesses at 3600. So the only other conclusion is that they're high on something and maybe flying at 36000 ft. As I googled 36000, I came cross a book reference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000 , but again, that's a Dow reference not SP500.
BarryZuckerkorn 20592.62
madbrain 36000


Some other guesses I think might be skewing results (though some of these may be serious guesses with number play):
HueyLD 999.99
raven15 1212.12
assetsforallocation 1567.89
Savvy 1818.18
czeckers 1888.88
tnhooper45 2020.2
Nosmo 2202.02
vin44 2222.2
CheeseFlip 2222.22
veggivet 2344.44
SquawkIdent 2345.67
kelvan80 2345.67
Frisco Kid 2345.67
rgs92 2345.67
FastEd 2345.67
Nowizard 2424.24
Ace1 2425.26
barnaclebob 2525
Talisker 2525.25
Sally 2525.25
mikeast 2555.55
no humbug 2567.89


Almost a third were bearish, and about half of those predicting > 10% loss. The distribution of the 600+ BH was much wider than the experts, with over 100 predicting > 10% loss and again over 100 predicting > 10% gain, so roughly 1/3 are expecting double digit changes. About half predicted between 0-10% gain.

surfer1
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by surfer1 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:19 am

rarvesen wrote:How do you pull the guesses from the forum thread? I think you might have a better technique than I do.


I parse the posts automatically, using a regular expression. It works pretty well. I hope you're not doing it manually, although sometimes you have to inspect the posts visually to make sure everything is correct. :)

If you're ever interested, I can send you a csv of the numbers, for cross-referencing with your own etc.

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tooluser
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Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by tooluser » Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:17 pm

Thank you to those who are administering the contest! It is a solemn, forlorn, and pecuniary duty that dashes the hopes of so many upon the rocky shoreline of unfulfilled expectations. But the sea air is refreshing, and as the albatross drops from one's neck, one may endeavor to build upon your efforts, to seek a more certain course - sun or moon, day or night.
Learn economical motion of delivery from a variety of angles, then lengthen the distance gradually. -- Bruce Lee

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