2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

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LibertyLover
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2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LibertyLover » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:39 pm

Image

Here is the updated Callan Periodic Table of Returns updated through the end of 2016. 2016 was a great year for Small Cap Value and Small Cap Blend. both were in the bottom half the last two years. Rather than chasing returns in the top asset classes, the poor performers of one year are often the top performers the next. Buy low/sell high.

Developed international was dead last (MSCI EAFE). I suppose that will be used as justification for both sides of the international argument :happy

garlandwhizzer
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by garlandwhizzer » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:48 pm

The table visually makes a good case for wide diversification and reversion to the mean.

Garland Whizzer

harikaried
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by harikaried » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:58 pm

LibertyLover wrote:Rather than chasing returns in the top asset classes, the poor performers of one year are often the top performers the next. Buy low/sell high. Developed international was dead last (MSCI EAFE).
From 2010, Emerging Markets, EAFE, Barclays Agg have been in the bottom 2 spots for 4 years each, so it must be time to buy! ? :greedy :)

kewper
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by kewper » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:46 pm

I'm sorry to be obtuse but does that mean a 31.74% ANNUAL RETURN for Russell 2000 Value?

bigred77
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bigred77 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:49 pm

kewper wrote:I'm sorry to be obtuse but does that mean a 31.74% ANNUAL RETURN for Russell 2000 Value?


Yes. That was the return from 1/1/16 - 12/31/16.

kewper
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by kewper » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:49 pm

Thanks.

bigred77
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bigred77 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:52 pm

No wonder I felt like this past year was pretty blah.

Over 50% of my portfolio is in bonds and international equities. At least slightly over weighting EM helped a little this year.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by whodidntante » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:54 pm

It was a good year for my portfolio.

heyyou
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by heyyou » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:19 pm

That chart has been the best learning tool for me, not just the relative return squares, but the return numbers accentuate the variations. I would like to see a computer model done with each square height relative to its % return.

Theoretical
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Theoretical » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:22 pm

It was quite a banner year for small and value, especially Value.

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:31 pm

LibertyLover:

Thank you for sharing the latest Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. It confirms Mr. Bogles wise advice:

Don't search for the needle. Buy the haystack.


The Three-Fund Portfolio

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Taylor Larimore
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From worst to best in 12 months

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:52 pm

LibertyLover:

Thank you for sharing the latest Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns.

Did anyone notice that Emerging Markets had the worst return of -53.18% in 2008 and the highest return of +79.02% in 2009--a 132.20% difference in just one year. That's volatility!

The Callan Table confirms Mr. Bogle's wise advice:

"Don't search for the needle. Buy the haystack" (and sleep well).


The Three-Fund Portfolio

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

jrbdmb
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by jrbdmb » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:15 pm

Link to the table, please?

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:39 pm

jrbdmb wrote:Link to the table, please?

jrbdmb:

The Table is in the Opening Post.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

LibertyLover
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LibertyLover » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:35 pm

jrbdmb wrote:Link to the table, please?

PDF will download from this link: https://www.callan.com/research/files/1309.pdf

They may have you register..... it's free.

sambb
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by sambb » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:16 pm

thank goodness for international - theres room to run maybe

bobinberea
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bobinberea » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:27 am

Could someone simply post the pdf itself? I'm supposedly registered with Callan, but when I try to login using my existing login ID and password, it won't accept them. When I try to change my password, it claims it doesn't recognize my email, saying it is not on file. I would be happy to start from scratch again and register, but I see no way to do that. I'm stuck.

If someone could simply post the pdf, that's all I really want.

Thanks.

LibertyLover
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LibertyLover » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:15 am

Bobinbrea,

I wasn't sure how to upload a PDF so I loaded it onto my Google drive to share.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8JsbZRe5NOURVdyNHBlWTZ0RHM/view?usp=drivesdk

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in_reality
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by in_reality » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:55 am

LibertyLover wrote:
Developed international was dead last (MSCI EAFE). I suppose that will be used as justification for both sides of the international argument :happy


For 2016, my funds show:
Developed Small Value +8.89%
Developed Large Value +7.7%

sambb wrote:thank goodness for international - theres room to run maybe


EM Value +30%
[S&P 500 + 14.4%]

Even after those returns actually there is. P/E10 of my EM fund I believe is still about 10 as compared to around 25 for the S&P.

Anyway, I TLH'd out of VTIAX in 2014 and into value funds so am glad to see this.
[60% US _ 26% DEV _ 14% EM] | (-16% LC _ +8% MC _ +8% SC) | [47% FND/VAL _ 40% MKT _ 7% MOM _ 6% REIT] | (+/- 5% or *25% rebalancing bands)

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saltycaper
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by saltycaper » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:26 am

in_reality wrote:
P/E10 of my EM fund I believe is still about 10 as compared to around 25 for the S&P.



Where can one get P/E10 info for specific funds?
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

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in_reality
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by in_reality » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:30 am

saltycaper wrote:
in_reality wrote:
P/E10 of my EM fund I believe is still about 10 as compared to around 25 for the S&P.



Where can one get P/E10 info for specific funds?


I don't think it's generally available. The fund provider did the calculation when they wrote an article about it.
[60% US _ 26% DEV _ 14% EM] | (-16% LC _ +8% MC _ +8% SC) | [47% FND/VAL _ 40% MKT _ 7% MOM _ 6% REIT] | (+/- 5% or *25% rebalancing bands)

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saltycaper
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by saltycaper » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:17 am

in_reality wrote:
I don't think it's generally available. The fund provider did the calculation when they wrote an article about it.


Thanks. Bummer. I was excited for a moment.
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

bobinberea
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by bobinberea » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:45 am

LibertyLover wrote:Bobinbrea,

I wasn't sure how to upload a PDF so I loaded it onto my Google drive to share.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8JsbZRe5NOURVdyNHBlWTZ0RHM/view?usp=drivesdk


Got it--thanks for your help!

BobinBerea

LK2012
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LK2012 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:08 am

LibertyLover wrote:... I wasn't sure how to upload a PDF so I loaded it onto my Google drive to share.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8JsbZRe5NOURVdyNHBlWTZ0RHM/view?usp=drivesdk


Thank you for sharing this chart!

I'm with Taylor, it really shows you how performance varies year-to-year, and chasing it is incredibly difficult.

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Aptenodytes
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Aptenodytes » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:26 am

I toyed around with a different way to present this information, The main changes are:
    + It goes back to 1985
    + I tried to cover the most-utilized asset categories among Bogleheads (e.g. I added REITs and I dropped international-developed)
    + As does the Callan table it stacks each asset category in descending order of annual returns, year by year, but it connects the positions with a line to help illustrate dynamic patterns.
The labels on the right vertical axis correspond to the 2016 ranks. The animated gif cycles through each asset category in order of 2016 ranks. I didn't try to visualize absolute returns -- the main point of the table seems to be showing how ranks are very unstable. The data are all from siamond's most recent update to the "backtest portfolio returns" spreadsheet (rev 16a, draft 3). If the animated gif doesn't render properly in your browser you can download it here.

[Embedded animated GIF removed, here's the link: return ranks.gif (GIF Image, 500 × 500 pixels) --admin LadyGeek]

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:54 pm

^^^ Sorry, but animated GIFs are not permitted in this forum, see: General Etiquette

avoid posting in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS or otherwise using distracting formatting

If anyone has any questions, please PM me.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:56 pm

The wiki has been updated for 2016: Callan periodic table of investment returns

Permission to reproduce the chart in the wiki has been received. All you need to do is ask.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

PaulF
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Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by PaulF » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:45 am

Aptenodytes wrote:I toyed around with a different way to present this information


That is a great way to represent this! Thanks.

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