Whats your number to walk away?

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freebeer
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby freebeer » Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:19 pm

No number to walk away (I love what I do and am only mid-50's). If I had $15M I would probably adjust focus back to entrepreneur mode, or maybe even change to angel investor / VC mode, but that would still be work. Less than $15M I probably wouldn't change a thing, work-wise.

To me the relevant number is not the number that would TRIGGER me walking away it's the number that ENABLES me to walk away if need be. My current formula for that is spending needs x years to age 70 + residual spending above SS starting at 70 x 20. I am very lucky to be above that "F-U Money" number now.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby SurferLife » Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:24 pm

I honestly don't know what our number is, since we haven't decided on where we're going to live once we retire from the military and our walk away number is more driven by time vs money (plus DW wants them to move us to Hawaii). We have reached our minimum and can walk away now, but FIRE life looks very different if we retire in TX vs CA/HI. We haven't been able to build home equity since we move every 2-3 years, so if we move to CA/HI, then we'd need an additional 300-500k in taxable to make buying a home there possible. The military pension will be between 80-90k/yr (I value the pension at 2.5M), so all expenses are covered in that amount, except a mortgage in a HCOL area. We want to live in CA (most of the time anyway), but damn is it expensive! :annoyed Walk away to California: 4M. Walk away to LCOL State: 3.5M.

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goodenyou
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby goodenyou » Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:32 pm

I could walk away today, but I am still young (51) and legacy for my kids is important to my wife and me. My job is tolerable and my wife has a great job with great benefits. I don't want to retire and still have her working. I would be on the golf course everyday :D The cash burn now with college costs and 3 teenage kids is tremendous. Part of the reason I don't walk is that I don't want to be on a budget. Working allows more freedom to spend and still save significantly. I am hoping to move to a HCOL area soon and it may change "my number". The geographic arbitrage chapter in my life has almost run its course and the future may require more money for housing.
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kingsnake
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby kingsnake » Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:57 pm

I'd walk away right now if I had 10M.

This year I should pass 5M. With a mortgage, 2 young kids, and being in my early 40s, I'll keep chipping away but this year plan to work less.

Bonanza77
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Bonanza77 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:59 pm

AlwaysAStudent wrote:
fantasytensai wrote:May be a little off track, but did you ever regret not having kids? We are at 29 and 28 ourselves and we both hate kids (other people's and the thought of our own). We agreed not to have any kids but everyone is telling us that we will feel differently when we get older. Did you?


I am not that much older than you but if you don't want kids, don't have them. My husband always wanted kids, I always leaned towards no but it was not set in stone. We have a 2.5 year old now, she completely lights up my world and I love her like crazy BUT having her has allowed me to know without a doubt that if we would have decided not to have kids I would have been happy with that decision too. My husband knew that he would not have been happy without kids. It comes down to will you feel like you are missing something without kids, you can (and probably) will lead a relatively happy life with or without kids, but will you later think something is missing. If you (and your partner) know yourselves well enough to know that you will not feel this way and you (and your partner) are leaning towards no, don't let other people tell you that they know you better than you know yourself.


I never cared for kids, in general, and didn't have any desire to have one. When I was 35, my girlfriend got pregnant. I was not thrilled. Nevertheless, we got married, had the kid, and now at 39 (she's 35) are about to have our fourth.

Despite how I felt at the time, in retrospect, not having children would have been the biggest mistake I ever made. I wanted them, I just didn't know it. Some people have probably had the opposite experience--although you're not likely to hear from them for a number of obvious reasons. The dilemma you face is that you may never know if you want kids until you actually have one. And they don't allow refunds or exchanges if you're unsatisfied.

fantasytensai
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby fantasytensai » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:08 pm

The Casualty wrote:
fantasytensai wrote:
The Casualty wrote:2.5M ( Walked last year)

2.8M start of new year
61/66 y/o
105K in pensions and SS
Corp. retiree health insurance @ $224 / month for spouse
No Debt
LCOL area
No kids


May be a little off track, but did you ever regret not having kids? We are at 29 and 28 ourselves and we both hate kids (other people's and the thought of our own). We agreed not to have any kids but everyone is telling us that we will feel differently when we get older. Did you?


No, even when I was a young guy (your age) I just never felt it, the desire to have children. I will say that I like kid's, I have 9 nieces and nephews and I have a wonderful relationship with all of them. I love them dearly, and am active in playing Uncle. For me, that's the sweet spot.


Thanks. Neither myself nor my wife have any siblings. Neither of us likes our extended family (cousins) so establishing a relationship with their children is out of the questions too. I can say with relative confidence now that I won't need emotional support when I'm older, but part of me is wondering if that will hold true. My dad is currently selling his house on his way to his retirement. I am handling his closing as his lawyer (free of charge of course). And every time some tiny issue pops up with the closing, he freaks out like a child, and I have to assure a 60 year old man that everything is going to be fine. I can't help but think what if I become like my dad at that age, and have no children to lean on for support?

Sorry for the detour. My number to walk away right now at 29 is 10mm. I want to travel the world, but otherwise live frugally.

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cockersx3
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby cockersx3 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:28 pm

Wow - amazed by large numbers on this forum! My numbers are below, but I'm starting to second-guess them based on what I'm seeing here :shock:

Age: 44 (wife and I), two kids. College savings already funded, numbers below reflect living expenses/HC/taxes only
  • Low end (ie bare-bones lifestyle, limited travel, etc) - $1MM and paid off house. Should be there within 2 years. If I was to get laid off for any reason, I'd likely do this and do some self-employed, part-time engineering consulting as needed.
  • MIddle range: $1.5MM and paid off house. Basically living the same lifestyle we do now.
  • High end - $2MM and higher.

My answers several years ago would probably have been a lot different, with much higher numbers. Since then, I've dealt with some medical issues (now mostly resolved) that have nevertheless made me totally rethink the level of emphasis work needs to have in my life. This may be why my numbers are so low relative to others on this thread - I'd rather retire with less than give more of my time to my job (which I do like BTW) to get more money.... :?

Random Poster
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Random Poster » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:45 pm

I'm unclear on the numbers being provided:

Is the number the total portfolio value?

Or is the number only that amount that is easily accessible without penalty (other than income taxes) or other restrictions?

It is one thing to say "$3M, at age 45, and I'm there" without mentioning that the $3M is composed of $2M in an IRA and $1M in a taxable account. It is another to say "$3M, at age 45, and I've got $500K left to go" without mentioning that you've got $750K in an IRA that you aren't even counting.

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Leif
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Leif » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:51 pm

I'm 60. HCOL area. My cash flow spreadsheet tells me $1 million portfolio would probably work after 70. Could retire now but work keeps me busy and waiting for wife to retire (maybe in a couple of years). Then we can travel - A LOT if health allows.
Last edited by Leif on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Elsebet
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Elsebet » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:55 pm

The numbers in this thread seem so high. I will be happy to have around 1 million in my retirement account by age 60 (have 1/3 of that now at age 40). We are of modest means so that will be plenty.

bloom2708
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby bloom2708 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:00 pm

Random Poster wrote:I'm unclear on the numbers being provided:

Is the number the total portfolio value?

Or is the number only that amount that is easily accessible without penalty (other than income taxes) or other restrictions?

It is one thing to say "$3M, at age 45, and I'm there" without mentioning that the $3M is composed of $2M in an IRA and $1M in a taxable account. It is another to say "$3M, at age 45, and I've got $500K left to go" without mentioning that you've got $750K in an IRA that you aren't even counting.


Most will have a mix of cash, CDs, taxable, 401k/Rollover IRA, Roth IRA and add up the full value.

You can tap your Rollover IRA using the 72t rules. You can tap your Roth IRA contribution dollars after 5 years (not the earnings). Most would use cash/taxable investments to bridge to where you can tap other funds.

If I could convince my wife, the number would be $1.5 million at age 50 (currently 45). By 53 we will have the last kid in college. Some large (college, weddings) expenditures in the future (3 girls) that will probably delay things. It is really hard to guess at things like inheritance. I sure hope I don't have to deal with inheritance in the next 7-10+ years. That will mean that all our parents are still going strong.
Last edited by bloom2708 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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bltkmt
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby bltkmt » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:00 pm

LarryAllen wrote:It's all about expenses. We earn a lot and spend a lot. Thus our "needs" would require a pretty big number to walk away.


This is true here as well. Although, I could/would do it at $10mil.

Gropes & Ray
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Gropes & Ray » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:12 pm

Elsebet wrote:The numbers in this thread seem so high. I will be happy to have around 1 million in my retirement account by age 60 (have 1/3 of that now at age 40). We are of modest means so that will be plenty.


I am also surprised how high some of the numbers are. But, this is an investment forum, not necessarily a frugality forum. I also know that I did not include my expected Social Security in my number. If I wait to retire until I have a 30 year work history, I won't need so much invested. Maybe even $1 million less.

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David Jay
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby David Jay » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:13 pm

My number is $800,000 at my current age (60).

The number drops each year by about $50,000, our annual "bridge" (to Social Security) expense level.

My projected retirement is age 62, with a $700,000 portfolio.
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" Niels Bohr

Theoretical
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Theoretical » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:24 pm

My numbers are based on no Social Security, no Medicare, and the fact that any kids we have will likely enjoy some of my medical fun at an early age (at least my wife doesn't have that in her family background)

I fully expect Medicare and Social Security to be means tested at some point, or to be very barebones.

Rodc
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Rodc » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:24 pm

Could be zero if bad things happen at work. :)

Not expecting that.

If really good things happen at work it might be a really huge number.

More likely enough to cover 2-5 years of (take home) salary.

I am 60. Five years would get me to full pension with no change in lifestyle and a decidedly upper middle class retirement. Three-four would have a very modest impact. Two would be very doable, but a little marginal, but still a solid middle class retirement.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Dirghatamas » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:10 pm

The numbers being posted appear WAY too low to me for USA taking into account the completely open ended nature of healthcare futures (unless you have covered healthcare due to a Govt/Military type job).

I did my spreadsheet for 2016 this weekend. Looks like I did well this year due to stock market and options. I reached 12M in investments at age 46 which is a new high for me and net worth increased by about 2M this year. However, that was mostly due to the markets and I can take no credit for it (it might drop by 50% any day). I am more pleased that I took care of things under my control: finally have fully optimized tax location for each asset class and maximized deferred income (beyond the standard 401K, HSA, backdoor ROTH etc. which together, hardly move the needle being not indexed to income). I also kept my expenses very well under control this year and this was the first year for me with net expenses < 1% of my yearly gross income after hovering in the 1-2% range for the last couple of years.

I think getting to expenses < 1% of yearly gross income certifies me as frugal :happy

At present, there is literally nothing left to optimize in my expenses or taxation given my COL so I have done my job.

Still, the elephant in the room is healthcare. My expenses on healthcare are 0 right now because I am still young and have been lucky to have never had (knock on wood) any serious disease or injury in my life. With changing Govt/congress etc. we have no idea what is going to happen with healthcare premiums in retirement. I am absolutely confident that I can keep all my expenses under control (except healthcare).

For people without ironclad healthcare pensions (Federal Govt and Military) are people just winging their healthcare future costs? I have started to look into self-insuring and 10M allocation to it still makes me nervous. Perhaps 20M would be ironclad? The scary part is the open ended nature: any number I come up with may not be enough..so how does one deal with it?

Not yet started seriously thinking about retirement because I love engineering..so no real urgency..but healthcare in US is the big swing factor every time I think about it and scares me.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby SurferLife » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:18 pm

SurferLife wrote:I honestly don't know what our number is, since we haven't decided on where we're going to live once we retire from the military and our walk away number is more driven by time vs money (plus DW wants them to move us to Hawaii). We have reached our minimum and can walk away now, but FIRE life looks very different if we retire in TX vs CA/HI. We haven't been able to build home equity since we move every 2-3 years, so if we move to CA/HI, then we'd need an additional 300-500k in taxable to make buying a home there possible. The military pension will be between 80-90k/yr (I value the pension at 2.5M), so all expenses are covered in that amount, except a mortgage in a HCOL area. We want to live in CA (most of the time anyway), but damn is it expensive! :annoyed Walk away to California: 4M. Walk away to LCOL State: 3.5M.

I should have added the critical piece that adds perspective; we are ages 37/45.

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Chan_va
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Chan_va » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:19 pm

Everytime I think I am doing ok, a thread like this pops up and reminds me that the average boglehead is above average. (Either that or I am being trolled. I hope it's the latter.)

My number is.....

Image

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby hicabob » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:20 pm

Dirghatamas wrote:
For people without ironclad healthcare pensions (Federal Govt and Military) are people just winging their healthcare future costs? I have started to look into self-insuring and 10M allocation to it still makes me nervous. Perhaps 20M would be ironclad? The scary part is the open ended nature: any number I come up with may not be enough..so how does one deal with it?

Not yet started seriously thinking about retirement because I love engineering..so no real urgency..but healthcare in US is the big swing factor every time I think about it and scares me.



If it scares you that much you have plenty of $$$ to get an "investor visa" in Canada, Oz, NZ, EU countries or Switzerland. That way you would get decent healthcare included with taxes but the US exit tax can be onerous depending on your assets. On the other hand, if 10M isn't enough the US economy will have been decimated by healthcare costs at that point.

bloom2708
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby bloom2708 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:22 pm

$12 million is not enough to consider retirement/financial independece? :shock: :annoyed

Invested very conservatively that is $240k/year of dividends/income. Interesting to see the different numbers. :?

garlandwhizzer
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby garlandwhizzer » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:25 pm

I defined my number for stock/bond portfolio at 1.6 Mil. When I was 50, single, no kids, no other income, and my portfolio hit that number I retired. I assumed at that time (1997) that I would average a real return of 7%+/yr. I was much more optimistic 20 years ago about future expected returns than I am today. Actually I have done well over the two decades, living well, and my stock/bond portfolio is now greater than when I retired 20 years ago. I attribute much of my success looking at it honestly in retrospect to dumb luck. I rode the tech bubble up in the 90s and even after I retired for the golden 2 years 97 - 99, at the end of which my tech dominated portfolio more than doubled. I also sold a very expensive home in California before the real estate crash, reaping a lot of federally tax free long term capital gains. I used that money to downsize into much less expensive home, buying it outright, no mortgage, and investing what remained to my stock/bond portfolio. Had I retired in late 1999 with the same sized portfolio which was mostly in tech stocks, it might have been a complete disaster. Had I deferred selling my expensive home until the exuberant real estate market crashed, trouble also. Dumb luck, particularly when it comes to timing of major financial decisions like this, often turns out to be a much bigger factor in investment results than most of us realize. A few things I've learned over a 30 year investing career. When optimism in any market is exceptionally high, that often turns out to be a sell signal. The converse is also true, when pessimism is rampant, hold on, which I did through the crash of 2000 - 2003, and later in 2008-2009. Buffett hits the nail on the head on those points. Also the longer I live the better simple cap weighted indexes look, quite a change from when I was an individual stock picker with a 100% tech stock portfolio, no bonds. Once you get burned sufficiently with a portfolio like that you don't forget it. If you invest for a long time you'll inevitably make some mistakes, probably a lot of them, and it is from that pain that you'll learn key lessons that stick with you. Theoretical models of the markets are intellectually appealing and offer insight, but experience, some of it bad, is perhaps the best teacher.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby KlangFool » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:32 pm

1.5 million

KlangFool

SurferLife
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby SurferLife » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:51 pm

fantasytensai wrote:May be a little off track, but did you ever regret not having kids? We are at 29 and 28 ourselves and we both hate kids (other people's and the thought of our own). We agreed not to have any kids but everyone is telling us that we will feel differently when we get older. Did you?

We recently our first child at age 37/45 and are expecting a second any day now. I underestimated how much children destroy your life. Don't misunderstand, we love him dearly, and he's an AMAZING kid, but your life changes significantly. The first year was pretty easy, and when they're breastfeeding (every 2 hours) and can sleep strapped to you, you're not really impacted much. Once they start walking and needing real food, then you really notice the handicap, but it is supposed to get easier every year as they can do more. I know that if I did not have kids, I would have always regretted it and wondered what that would have looked like, and so I'm glad that I was able to do it. Financial planning changes and we're saving a bit more, working a bit longer, and if you don't want to farm your kids out to daycare and public school, your life goals may need to adjust. I had planned an awesome "retirement" career/activity path, but now I need to adjust that and it will no longer look like what I had envisioned, and that's fine. I think in the end I'll be richer with the experiences my children bring than with my activities. Keep in mind though that I have had a full career and feel that I have checked that box. For someone that hasn't done that, they may feel that children prevented them from accomplishing their purpose.

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DR
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby DR » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:54 pm

I'm 58 and plan on working through age 62. So if I remove 3.5 years of wages, remove my contributions and employer match, recalculate the SS earnings benefit because of the loss of earnings over the next 3.5 years . . . . I would need to wake up to a tax-free appearance of 350K in my checking account to have the same living standard from 58 through age 100 that I have modeled now.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby alexost » Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:57 pm

Many of these replies are meaningless without ages, forecasted lengths of retirement, and lifestyle definition, or - expenses desired in retirement. That is why we see some people apprehensive about retiring with 12 mill, and some people happy with 800K or even less.

Remember the first thing you do in life is define your lifestyle. Even when you are not retired.

The beauty of our system here is that if you don't get caught up in trying to live better than the next person (just let everyone else do this while you watch your investments grow,) you can live like a king relative to many current and historical humans.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby arthur_vandelay » Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:03 pm

Age 42. Live frugal-ish.
Walk at $2M. $750K to go or 6 years from now...whichever comes first.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby boglephreak » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:06 pm

at 36 (wife, 29), i have no idea what our number will be, and i am okay with that. seems too early in life to worry about such things. just keep saving as much as possible, living below our means, and investing wisely.

a lot of the responses in here are dashing my dreams of retiring early though. wow, some high numbers.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby flyingaway » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:14 pm

cockersx3 wrote:Wow - amazed by large numbers on this forum! My numbers are below, but I'm starting to second-guess them based on what I'm seeing here :shock:

Age: 44 (wife and I), two kids. College savings already funded, numbers below reflect living expenses/HC/taxes only
  • Low end (ie bare-bones lifestyle, limited travel, etc) - $1MM and paid off house. Should be there within 2 years. If I was to get laid off for any reason, I'd likely do this and do some self-employed, part-time engineering consulting as needed.
  • MIddle range: $1.5MM and paid off house. Basically living the same lifestyle we do now.
  • High end - $2MM and higher.

My answers several years ago would probably have been a lot different, with much higher numbers. Since then, I've dealt with some medical issues (now mostly resolved) that have nevertheless made me totally rethink the level of emphasis work needs to have in my life. This may be why my numbers are so low relative to others on this thread - I'd rather retire with less than give more of my time to my job (which I do like BTW) to get more money.... :?


This is similar to my thinking. After reaching $1.5m, we started experiencing retirement. I had been in 12 countries and areas in 2016. We are not retired, but doing what we want to do in retirement. That is extensive travel. Our jobs are not stressful. The only difference between working and retirement is the time for travel.

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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:22 pm

anoop wrote:
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Short of hitting the lottery or a bird with a huge sack of cash dropping it on my back lawn, I don't see me walking away quite yet. :)


Aren't incidents like that supposed to be reported? (In other words, you don't get to keep the money.)


Really? You are supposed to report it, the police are supposed to hold it and if no one lays claim to it in a lawful manner after some period of time, the money becomes yours. Winning the lottery does not have to be reported, unless you are placing a claim on the money. There have been incidents of winning tickets being sold and no one claims them. Guess they don't need either the money or the publicity.
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Rodc » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:23 pm

SurferLife wrote:
fantasytensai wrote:May be a little off track, but did you ever regret not having kids? We are at 29 and 28 ourselves and we both hate kids (other people's and the thought of our own). We agreed not to have any kids but everyone is telling us that we will feel differently when we get older. Did you?

We recently our first child at age 37/45 and are expecting a second any day now. I underestimated how much children destroy change your life. Don't misunderstand, we love him dearly, and he's an AMAZING kid, but your life changes significantly. The first year was pretty easy, and when they're breastfeeding (every 2 hours) and can sleep strapped to you, you're not really impacted much. Once they start walking and needing real food, then you really notice the handicap, but it is supposed to get easier every year as they can do more. I know that if I did not have kids, I would have always regretted it and wondered what that would have looked like, and so I'm glad that I was able to do it. Financial planning changes and we're saving a bit more, working a bit longer, and if you don't want to farm your kids out to daycare and public school, your life goals may need to adjust. I had planned an awesome "retirement" career/activity path, but now I need to adjust that and it will no longer look like what I had envisioned, and that's fine. I think in the end I'll be richer with the experiences my children bring than with my activities. Keep in mind though that I have had a full career and feel that I have checked that box. For someone that hasn't done that, they may feel that children prevented them from accomplishing their purpose.


:)

They might have "destroyed" my former life but they gave me a new different life. Honestly it took some adjustment, even though I have always been a huge fan of small children. And I knew full well going in that life was going to change in big ways and I was happy for that. But some days it was hard because I was used to "getting things done." I might decide Saturday morning to build a new deck and Sunday evening I would bbq dinner on the new deck and admire my handiwork while sitting there having a cold beer. Wiping butts, giving baths, reading books, cleaning house did not provide the same sense of accomplishment. A feeling of accomplishment did come, it just takes a long time and is not nearly so concrete!

If anyone goes into kids thinking they will maintain their old life (and I know several people who did that) they are likely in for a world of hurt. Going into it fully expecting and embracing change will work better (but might still be a little hard).
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.

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HomerJ
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby HomerJ » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:29 pm

To walk away today?

I'm 47, and hope to retire at 55 with around $2 million.

I would for sure walk away 8 years early if you gave me $3 million. Maybe $2.5 million. Maybe. Probably. If I'm never allowed to work again for money, I wouldn't want to go lower than that.

I COULD go lower than that... I could retire today happy with $1 million, but it wouldn't be the lifestyle my wife would want.
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Novine
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Novine » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:17 pm

"The numbers in this thread seem so high. I will be happy to have around 1 million in my retirement account by age 60 (have 1/3 of that now at age 40). We are of modest means so that will be plenty."

Same here. We've never lived a lifestyle that requires us to save $5 - $10 million to live comfortably in retirement. My biggest concern over the long-term is health care costs.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:23 pm

Novine wrote:"The numbers in this thread seem so high. I will be happy to have around 1 million in my retirement account by age 60 (have 1/3 of that now at age 40). We are of modest means so that will be plenty."

Same here. We've never lived a lifestyle that requires us to save $5 - $10 million to live comfortably in retirement. My biggest concern over the long-term is health care costs.


It's all relative, depending on things like where you are living, current health care costs, let alone future health care costs, if you have kids or not, debt, etc.
"Luck is not a strategy" Asking Portfolio Questions

Rolyatroba
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Rolyatroba » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:36 pm

$2.6M was our minimum walk-away (including $300k set aside for college for 2 kids, currently 15 & 17).

That had me almost completely stop working when we hit that a year ago (I'm 56 and DW is 50).

We have a paid-off rental home in Marin county CA that we'll move to in 3.5 years, regardless of what the market does.

If we are above $3M at that time, I'll beg my wife not to work so we can travel about half-time.

If we aren't at $3M then, we'll play by ear on whether she keeps working or we sell and get lower cost housing there or move to a LCOL area.

If we hit $3M before that time, I'll beg my wife to quit because I'm a little bored in this state of half-retirement.

Net-net, within 5 years from now, we are walking away. :wink:
Last edited by Rolyatroba on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:52 pm

After 16 hours of work today, I think my number just got $100-200k lower... :oops:

arsenalfan
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby arsenalfan » Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:54 pm

$5mm is when I anticipate going to 0.5 FTE. Hopefully in 3 years.
Happy in my job and that should be good home/life balance until kiddies off to college. After that, we'll see if we're hit by the travel bug, etc...

curmudgeon
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby curmudgeon » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:13 pm

freebeer wrote:To me the relevant number is not the number that would TRIGGER me walking away it's the number that ENABLES me to walk away if need be. My current formula for that is spending needs x years to age 70 + residual spending above SS starting at 70 x 20. I am very lucky to be above that "F-U Money" number now.


This pretty much describes my view as well. We hit the ENABLE number a few years ago, but I continued working because I liked my work and I still saw some utility value in additional saving/spending in our case. There are plenty of uncertainties in the world, but I don't think having another million (or three) will really make a big difference in navigating them.

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JaneyLH
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby JaneyLH » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:20 pm

Age 62 and my husband and I are 5 years retired with 4M today. We can't spend what we should in a year. So glad we didn't wait. :happy

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HomerJ
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby HomerJ » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:38 pm

Dirghatamas wrote:For people without ironclad healthcare pensions (Federal Govt and Military) are people just winging their healthcare future costs? I have started to look into self-insuring and 10M allocation to it still makes me nervous. Perhaps 20M would be ironclad? The scary part is the open ended nature: any number I come up with may not be enough..so how does one deal with it?


You know you can buy health insurance directly from insurance companies, right?

I haven't done ANY research, but I'm pretty sure one can buy excellent health insurance with high maximums for $12,000-$20,000 a year. You don't have to self-insure, and put aside $2 million to cover a possible cancer treatment in your 60s.

Even if you paid $50,000 a year for health insurance for the rest of your life, you wouldn't need $10 million to cover your health insurance needs.

Where are you getting those numbers?
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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HomerJ
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby HomerJ » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:47 pm

Novine wrote:"The numbers in this thread seem so high. I will be happy to have around 1 million in my retirement account by age 60 (have 1/3 of that now at age 40). We are of modest means so that will be plenty."

Same here. We've never lived a lifestyle that requires us to save $5 - $10 million to live comfortably in retirement. My biggest concern over the long-term is health care costs.


A few things:

(1) Many Bogleheads seem to be extremely pessimistic. They think they can only pull 2%-3% of their money, so they way over-save.
(2) Many Bogleheads live in HCOL areas, and have very little concept of how cheap one can live in other parts of the country (or even 30 miles away from where they live now)
(3) Many Bogleheads do not track their expenses very well. They are currently making $200k, and think they need $200k in retirement, when in actually they will need far less, with a paid-off house, less taxes, and no longer needing to save.
(4) Many Bogleheads retire early, which requires more money than retiring at 65 with Social Security coming in.
(5) This particular thread is asking what would it take to walk away TODAY, so numbers are naturally much higher. The OP is asking some people how much it would take for them to retire today at 30, 35, or 40, so the numbers are inflated.

freebeer
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby freebeer » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:02 pm

curmudgeon wrote:
freebeer wrote:To me the relevant number is not the number that would TRIGGER me walking away it's the number that ENABLES me to walk away if need be. My current formula for that is spending needs x years to age 70 + residual spending above SS starting at 70 x 20. I am very lucky to be above that "F-U Money" number now.


This pretty much describes my view as well. We hit the ENABLE number a few years ago, but I continued working because I liked my work and I still saw some utility value in additional saving/spending in our case. There are plenty of uncertainties in the world, but I don't think having another million (or three) will really make a big difference in navigating them.


Yes, for me with kids the difference in saving more is mostly just the higher probability of leaving somethign to them. Or, I could stay at 5* hotels when I travel, but that really doesn't float my boat to the degree that I'd rather do that.

rgs92
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby rgs92 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:14 pm

To the people who are younger here you really don't know how you will feel about having a frugal cheap lifestyle when you get older. Estimating how much income you find acceptable may be wrong and prove to be higher than you think.

When younger, it may be fine to shovel snow, mow the lawn and do landscaping or repairs, clean the house, cook all the time vs. having convenient prepared foods, drive a small bumpy car, travel far to shop for bargains, have cheap uncomfortable furniture, or go without some luxuries that mean something to you (whatever floats your boat).

Also, as a couple spending a lot more time together during retirement days, you may find that you actually need a (significantly) larger space to live in to provide breathing space, depending on your personalities and culture and relationship. (I think this downsizing thing may be a myth. It could be the opposite.) You may not think so when you are young and attractive and in love early on, but you really just don't know how this will affect you later on in life, or your partner.

Don't assume.

I lived very cheaply in my college/youth days, but I couldn't deal with that now.

student
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby student » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:40 pm

rgs92 wrote:To the people who are younger here you really don't know how you will feel about having a frugal cheap lifestyle when you get older. Estimating how much income you find acceptable may be wrong and prove to be higher than you think.

When younger, it may be fine to shovel snow, mow the lawn and do landscaping or repairs, clean the house, cook all the time vs. having convenient prepared foods, drive a small bumpy car, travel far to shop for bargains, have cheap uncomfortable furniture, or go without some luxuries that mean something to you (whatever floats your boat).

Also, as a couple spending a lot more time together during retirement days, you may find that you actually need a (significantly) larger space to live in to provide breathing space, depending on your personalities and culture and relationship. (I think this downsizing thing may be a myth. It could be the opposite.) You may not think so when you are young and attractive and in love early on, but you really just don't know how this will affect you later on in life, or your partner.

Don't assume.

I lived very cheaply in my college/youth days, but I couldn't deal with that now.


+1. The famous saying "“When you're young you have time and energy but no money. When you get older you have money and energy but no time. And later when you finally have time and money, you no longer have energy.”

Kitty Telltales
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Kitty Telltales » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:43 pm

forkhorn wrote:I've heard it said that "the number" for many wealthy people is about twice what they currently have. I think there is some wisdom in that anecdote.


This is so true. If we had twice what we already have, I wouldn't hesitate to walk away today and my number is only a fraction of RAchip's

Dirghatamas
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Dirghatamas » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:18 am

HomerJ wrote:You know you can buy health insurance directly from insurance companies, right?

I haven't done ANY research, but I'm pretty sure one can buy excellent health insurance with high maximums for $12,000-$20,000 a year. You don't have to self-insure, and put aside $2 million to cover a possible cancer treatment in your 60s.

Even if you paid $50,000 a year for health insurance for the rest of your life, you wouldn't need $10 million to cover your health insurance needs.

Where are you getting those numbers?


HomerJ

You are making good points. Admittedly, I have not done extensive research on this, just talked with friends and inquired into self-insuring. Last year, I focused on taxes and have it now pretty much nailed with detailed spreadsheets so it is as optimized as it can be. I am sure I can do the same with healthcare once I devote some time.

You are giving me good reason to do the same in the next month or so on health insurance. I personally haven't fallen seriously ill ever so never had much need to delve in to detail. The scare part comes from acquaintances.. a (not close) friend died in December from Pancreatic cancer at age 45 within a year of discovery after being a perfectly healthy/vital person till then. So, I am more in the stage of being scared about all this than being an expert.

The other difficulty with Healthcare unlike other insurance is that it could all change based on laws. With Obamacare still around, I am sure I can simply look up insurance premiums and just chose the best coverage plan. But what if Obamacare itself goes away? What then? Not trying to dive into politics but concerned about those kind of eventualities.

Overall, I agree that I am pulling numbers out of my hat on healthcare needs without having done due research, so I will :sharebeer I hope I am way off on how much one needs to save for healthcare.

radiowave
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby radiowave » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:45 am

The other difficulty with Healthcare unlike other insurance is that it could all change based on laws. With Obamacare still around, I am sure I can simply look up insurance premiums and just chose the best coverage plan. But what if Obamacare itself goes away? What then? Not trying to dive into politics but concerned about those kind of eventualities.


Seems like many of us on this thread need to be concerned about cuts in Medicare. Again, not a political comment but a reality in the new administration that national health care policy and priorities will likely be different and that may affect the ability to get cost effective insurance/Medicare coverage in retirement.

Big Dog
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby Big Dog » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:49 am

for me, it's not $ but Medicare-eligible for the da' wife, a cancer survivor. Other than that, age 70, when Soc Sec maxes out.

BC_Doc
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby BC_Doc » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:14 am

I'm age 50 and an ER doctor living in Canada. I've pretty much hit my magic number although CPP (Canadian version of Social Security) won't pay out until I'm in my 60s. I have two kids in college, one in high school, and one in grade school. University costs way less here in Canada so helping four kids through college doesn't cost an arm and two legs like in the US.

Even though I could walk away, at this point, I see myself working another five to ten years (likely ten). I like (most) of my work-- it's a vocation. Continuing my work will also allow me to live my life in the manner to which I've become accustomed with some nice trips built in every year. Working will allow me to help my kids get established-- they are hard working kids who each work part time jobs to help pay their costs. They are already saving and investing (three fund portfolios-- thank you Taylor!). Continuing work will allow my wife and I to leave a bigger legacy, retire in greater comfort with a bigger pot, and will keep my brain from collecting as much rust. Short answer-- there is no magic number for me, but if forced to quit now, I would be ok.

2tall4economy
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Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Postby 2tall4economy » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:21 am

40 with about $2m. My current walk away is $5m so $3m more. Expect that sometime between 45-48 depending on capital market and real estate market behaviors. I expect we'll have some downturn in that period so after that I'd go. Maybe work 1-2 more years afterward to pick up some dream material possessions and the mansion I've always dreamed of, maybe not. I really don't want to be working after 50 though.

A year or so ago I Was planning to work to 65 and retire with $30m+; I viewed retirement as a step up in lifestyle not a continuation of my existing lifestyle. Wanted to live the jet / yacht lifestyle. Then my 4 year old started signing songs to me about coming home to see him and close family members started passing away, including my dad at 67. It's just not worth it at some point. I don't need a yacht to transport people I've never met and fly in my private jet all alone.

Live life a bit.
The most valuable education you can acquire is not paid for with money. It's paid for with time and effort. Harvard's a hell of a head start though.


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