REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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Calais
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Calais » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:20 pm

1500.00

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VictoriaF
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by VictoriaF » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:34 pm

2146

Victoria
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no humbug
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by no humbug » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:44 pm

2567.89

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Snikda
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Snikda » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:00 pm

2216.71

pbjung
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by pbjung » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:09 pm

1837.08

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snodog
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by snodog » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:16 pm

2766.91

blu-ray
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by blu-ray » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:29 pm

2343.

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SurfCityBill
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SurfCityBill » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:07 pm

2439.07

Dwayne
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dwayne » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:43 pm

2400.05

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smegal
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by smegal » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:47 pm

2028.68

stormswami
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by stormswami » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:33 pm

2645.11

pamplemousse
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by pamplemousse » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:51 pm

2468.01

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: REGISTRATION IS CLOSED

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:04 am

Bogleheads:

The 2017 Boglehead Contest is closed. You can follow your rank (updated every 15 minutes) HERE.

Thank you for your participation.

Best wishes.
Taylor and Ralph
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

bkweathe
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bkweathe » Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:48 pm


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Taylor Larimore
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:10 pm

bkweathe wrote:Why is my entry
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949&p=3181038#p3181038
not included in the tracking site
http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/default.aspx
?

Brad
Brad:

Ralph must enter each "guess" by hand and it takes time. I feel confident your entry will show up within a few days.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

likegarden
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by likegarden » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:20 pm

Mine is also not in the list. It is 2400.

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:48 pm

surfer1 has posted graphs showing the member prediction spreads: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts
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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:29 pm

likegarden wrote:Mine is also not in the list. It is 2400.
The site has been updated, I verified your guess is 2400.

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:30 pm

bkweathe wrote:Why is my entry
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949&p=3181038#p3181038
not included in the tracking site
http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/default.aspx
?

Brad
The site has been updated, I have you down for 2350.78, let me know if that is incorrect.

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:32 pm

The tracking site has been updated. It's a semi-manual (well, more manual) process to enter the guesses, please let me know if you see any problems with your entry. Thanks.

http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest

IronHorse1928
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by IronHorse1928 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:11 pm

2461.92

RPC1976
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RPC1976 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:11 am

2400.17

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: REGISTRATION CLOSED

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:18 am

Bogleheads:

Registration for the 2017 Contest closed January 10th.

Enjoy watching the contest unfold and try registering again next year during the first 10 days in January.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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prudent
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by prudent » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:18 am

This contest and it's predecessors are now the subject of a wiki article, see Bogleheads® contests.

SurferD
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SurferD » Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:47 am

Im sorry I missed the 2017 registration being on vacation but I saw this article today which may be of interest to see how your predictions are going.

Heres an excerpt: "2017 is basically over, at least for the S&P 500 Index.

The market bellwether has already reached the average year-end target of Wall Street analysts with a 5.5 percent gain since December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average estimate is 2,364, with the highest and lowest predictions sitting at 2,500 and 2,275. The index touched 2,366.24 Tuesday, an intraday record."

and the full article in case you are interested: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-forecast

lets hope it keeps going up :sharebeer
SurferD

Mudpuppy
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mudpuppy » Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:19 am

SurferD wrote:Im sorry I missed the 2017 registration being on vacation but I saw this article today which may be of interest to see how your predictions are going.

Heres an excerpt: "2017 is basically over, at least for the S&P 500 Index.

The market bellwether has already reached the average year-end target of Wall Street analysts with a 5.5 percent gain since December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average estimate is 2,364, with the highest and lowest predictions sitting at 2,500 and 2,275. The index touched 2,366.24 Tuesday, an intraday record."

and the full article in case you are interested: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-forecast

lets hope it keeps going up :sharebeer
SurferD
I don't put much stock into an article that calls a year over after two months. There's a whole lot of movement that can still happen in the next 10 months. While we'd certainly hope the trend holds steady or keeps going up, it could just as easily plummet. Always something to keep in mind when in the stock market.

SurferD
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SurferD » Mon May 01, 2017 6:04 am

Good point to bear in mind Mudpuppy ..one should not get carried away in the exuberance :)
Thanks for the reminder..you are right anything can happen
SurferD

MrKnight
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MrKnight » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:53 pm

So... I decided to take a look at the chart at noted that I'm at second place.

Nice! I wonder if I was ever first. Hopefully it doesn't move from now until the end of the year.

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BolderBoy
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BolderBoy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:27 am

It was fun to watch myself rise to first place with my outlandish guess at-the-time. And now falling down the ranks as the S&P500 continues to climb and climb and climb...
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

galectin
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by galectin » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:49 am

While I am (sadly) mired at the 15th percentile, it is due (happily) to my being pessimistic as the market has way outperformed my expectations. I'll take the money over the bragging rights any day. :D

spoco79
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by spoco79 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:28 am

2522.69

Da5id
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Da5id » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:36 am

BolderBoy wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:27 am
It was fun to watch myself rise to first place with my outlandish guess at-the-time. And now falling down the ranks as the S&P500 continues to climb and climb and climb...
The year isn't over yet. You could be exactly right still. A correction/selloff will come some day (it always does).

selters
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by selters » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:30 am

I'm currently in 2nd place. Unfortunately the S&P 500 has to fall by 4 points for me to end up in 1st place :( But I could live with that. Maybe I could make a living out of giving interviews to the financial media just because a complete shot in the dark accidentally hit the target. 8-)

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Mel Lindauer
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:57 am

spoco79 wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:28 am
2522.69
You're almost a year late. Guesses were closed many moons ago.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

bloom2708
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bloom2708 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:26 pm

I'm in first for the next 5 minutes!

My prediction was "out there". It could end up far away, but the trend has been good.
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jdb
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jdb » Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:38 pm

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:57 am
spoco79 wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:28 am
2522.69
You're almost a year late. Guesses were closed many moons ago.
Oh shoot, and I was waiting for December 30 to put in my estimate.

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packet
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by packet » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:49 pm

We're in the home stretch... and it looks like I was too conservative in my guess... yay!
:)

:beerCheers,
packet
First round’s on me.

minesweep
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by minesweep » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:27 pm

And the winner is:

Bruce - 2676.10
S&P close - 2673.61
difference - 2.49

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:32 pm

Darn it! I am 96. That is it, I am starting a hedge fund with 2% and 20% fees!
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:51 pm

See: 2017 hedge fund contest, I'm hoping for a 2018 contest.
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oldcomputerguy
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:56 pm

Wow. 545th out of 647. :annoyed

Oh, well, onward and upward to next year.
:sharebeer
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ABQ4804
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ABQ4804 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:59 pm

It’s nice to have grossly underestimated the stock market gains and been one of the losers this year! Landed in about the middle of the pack. Thank you Taylor for organizing this for us again.

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just frank
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by just frank » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:24 pm

Fun. I"ll have to be content with 17th place. I hope to get another chance next year!

:sharebeer

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FreeAtLast
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FreeAtLast » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:47 pm

Came in at # 611. One of these years I will win when a bear market is roaring. :twisted:
Illegitimi non carborundum.

Chicago60
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Chicago60 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:06 pm

I am clearly and consistently bad at predicting the market compared to other Bogleheads. In 2017, I came in 562 out of 647. 86.8% beat me. In 2016, I came in 571 out of 610. 93.6% beat me. And, in 2015, I came in 491/552. 88.9% beat me. Thankfully, I just stay the course based on my desired asset allocation. Though for 2018, like the prior 3, I am again certain that the market will drop 15-20%.

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Taylor Larimore
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BRUCE is our 2018 Boglehead Contest Champion !!!!

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:47 pm

Bogleheads:

The Contest has ended and Bruce is our champion. Bruce beat the year-end forecast of 635 other Bogleheads --
not to mention all 11 Wall Street Experts.

!!!!! CONGRATULATIONS BRUCE !!!!!

Please PM me with your name, mailing address, and your choice each of a Bogle and Boglehead book.

Please tell us how you did it.

Registration for the 2018 Boglehead Contest will be a new topic on January 1st.

Best wishes
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Fredfig
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Fredfig » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:41 am

2080.32
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Bruce
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Bruce » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:33 am

Happy New Year Taylor,

Thanks once again for sharing the "Nuts" Christmas message from Bastogne!

I was lucky enough to win this years Boglehead's SP 500 closing price contest.

Since last year I finished #365 from the top, it just shows that saying about "even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while" merits some truth, as I have no idea what the SP 500 will do next month or next year; but I have learned from Jack Bogle to "Stay the Course" and not bet against the US Economy, and to always be optimistic about the future of our amazing country in the long run no matter what the short term trials and turmoil may be.

In claiming the contest prize, I would humbly like to request a copy of The Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation by John Bogle.

I would also gratefully like to request a copy of your own, and soon to be released, The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio: How a Simple Portfolio of Three Total Market Index Funds Outperforms Most Investors with Less Risk by Taylor Larimore.

My greatest appreciation to you, for your service to our country, for all you have done for the Bogleheads, and for the wisdom you have shared with your many helpful postings over the years.

All the best to you and Jack Bogle, and all the Bogleheads in 2018, 2019 and beyond!

sincerely
Bruce
Bruce | | Winner of the 2017 Bogleheads Contest | | "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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AtlasShrugged?
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by AtlasShrugged? » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:32 am

Meh....79th place. I am fine with losing this one, since the S&P did so much better than my forecast, and FXSIX is a pretty big piece of my portfolio.
“If you don't know, the thing to do is not to get scared, but to learn.”

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Johm221122 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:35 am

2317.99

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