REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
PaulW
Posts: 32
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Location: PA

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by PaulW » Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:17 pm

2379.1

dtee
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 4:48 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by dtee » Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:21 pm

2435.26

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tainted-meat
Posts: 675
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:35 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tainted-meat » Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:21 pm

2408.69

luckyturtle
Posts: 1
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by luckyturtle » Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:20 pm

2291.69

Ksil
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:36 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Ksil » Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:21 pm

2427.00

Van
Posts: 574
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:24 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Van » Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:30 pm

2520.86

Van

Zackluth
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:31 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Zackluth » Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:41 pm

2563.97 :D

CalebHenley
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:00 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by CalebHenley » Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

2341.15

betahat
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:13 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by betahat » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:00 pm

2401.09

qwertyjazz
Posts: 1026
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:24 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by qwertyjazz » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:08 pm

2269.00
G.E. Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful."

maniminto
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:50 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by maniminto » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:10 pm

2132.5

likegarden
Posts: 2331
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 5:33 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by likegarden » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:12 pm

2400.00

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MichaelRpdx
Posts: 211
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 7:18 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon
Contact:

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MichaelRpdx » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:07 pm

1989.57 - Here's hoping this guess is way off.
Thanks for hosting the contest!
Be Appropriate && Follow Your Curiosity

Young Fellow
Posts: 82
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:48 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Young Fellow » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:55 pm

1900.00

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timboktoo
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:42 pm
Location: Louisville, KY

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by timboktoo » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:04 pm

2427.83

peddler12
Posts: 102
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:01 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by peddler12 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:43 pm

2,328.38

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Sally
Posts: 308
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 2:02 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Sally » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:46 pm

Let's go for: 2525.25

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Cosmo
Posts: 1145
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:46 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Cosmo » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:50 pm

1842.66

bkweathe
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:02 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bkweathe » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:56 am

2350.78

Last year's close + 5% + .01 ('cuz at least 3 others already guessed 2350.77).

JCE66
Posts: 223
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:08 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JCE66 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:51 am

You know what is scary? I just looked at the 330+ entries and not a single one forecasts a decline in the S&P 500 for 2017. Not one. Holy Cow!

cdailey9
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:59 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cdailey9 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:00 pm

* 2230

rarvesen
Posts: 53
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:01 pm

JCE66 wrote:You know what is scary? I just looked at the 330+ entries and not a single one forecasts a decline in the S&P 500 for 2017. Not one. Holy Cow!

I think there are quite a few decline forecast. Here is a scatter-graph that shows the guesses through page 10 (I think 490 guesses). The large gray line is the closing 2016 S&P 500 closing price.

Image

TheRightKost87
Posts: 259
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2013 12:25 am
Location: Boston, MA

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by TheRightKost87 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:05 pm

1987.12
"The problem with diversification is that it works, whether or not we want it to"

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Mlm
Posts: 122
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2016 6:00 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mlm » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:06 pm

2168.53
Reality has a way of catching up with you

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mister_sparkle
Posts: 190
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2013 5:58 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mister_sparkle » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:09 pm

2305.51

swellkarl
Posts: 24
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Location: Alabama
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by swellkarl » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:03 pm

My wild guess is 2550.
74% Inst Index, 20% Core Bond, and 6% Cash

Curtailment
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:09 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Curtailment » Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:17 pm

2419.28

Ninavi
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:49 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Ninavi » Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:57 pm

2520.00

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LiveSimple
Posts: 867
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:55 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LiveSimple » Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:32 pm

2423.12

gilgamesh
Posts: 835
Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:29 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gilgamesh » Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:27 pm

2521.80

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webslinger
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 6:38 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by webslinger » Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:40 pm

2484

Webslinger

rgs92
Posts: 1384
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 8:00 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rgs92 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:09 pm

2345.67

Novine
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:07 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Novine » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:00 pm

2576.05

sschullo
Posts: 2286
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:25 am
Location: Rancho Mirage, CA
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sschullo » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:19 pm

2570.66
Public School K-12 Educators: "Ask NOT what your annuity sales person can do for you, ask what you can do to be a Do-It-Yourselfer (DIY)."

jmg229
Posts: 313
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:21 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jmg229 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:27 pm

2339.58

boglengineer
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:45 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by boglengineer » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:53 pm

2560.32

SunnySeattle
Posts: 45
Joined: Mon Nov 04, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SunnySeattle » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:55 pm

2480.50

chi_ra
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:06 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by chi_ra » Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:41 am

1982.28

blacklab
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:15 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by blacklab » Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:47 am

2496.98

Norris
Posts: 521
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 10:04 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Norris » Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:47 am

2250.22
Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated. Confucius

danaht
Posts: 412
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2015 11:28 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by danaht » Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:10 am

2370.50

MrKnight
Posts: 266
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:24 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MrKnight » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:14 am

2,551.32

Better2bWise
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:45 pm
Location: Columbus, Ohio

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Better2bWise » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:19 am

2549.12

gdm129
Posts: 33
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gdm129 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:16 am

2395.

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yukonjack
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 10:36 pm
Location: Rocky Mountain West

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by yukonjack » Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:25 am

2364.74

MNGopher
Posts: 188
Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2015 1:44 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MNGopher » Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:42 am

2107.0

gks
Posts: 191
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:17 pm
Location: Michiana

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gks » Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:41 pm

2011.55

Daryl
Posts: 339
Joined: Thu May 22, 2008 9:34 am
Location: Malvern, PA (I like to sleep near my money!)

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Daryl » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:18 pm

madbrain wrote:36,000

I'm guessing that you don't have any bonds in your porfolio :beer

eldiente
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2007 11:45 pm

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by eldiente » Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:01 pm

2418.06

slowbutsteady
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:42 am

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by slowbutsteady » Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:46 pm

2458.5
The tortoise wins every time I read that story.

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