REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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aegis965
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by aegis965 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:41 am

2049.19
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giesen5
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by giesen5 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:04 am

2369.84

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k66
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by k66 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:54 am

The Dan wrote:1818.36

Based on the guesses so far, the average Boglehead is predicting a 2.2% increase in the S&P500 this year.
Image
(The red line shows the 2017 starting value for the S&P500.)
http://i64.tinypic.com/5d8che.jpg


Very cool! If I squint, I make out the pattern of a herd of horses charging forward... a very good omen indeed. :)

Seriously though, it is interesting to see where our collective darts are being thrown. I see a bit of a bald spot near the red line itself (indicating that people or generally guessing a move upwards or downwards, not towards neutrality), which might make for a bit of a camel-backed distribution (i.e. two humps instead one one).
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

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parsi1
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by parsi1 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:09 am

2365.0

RadAudit
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RadAudit » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:19 am

2325.57
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Wolfpacker » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:26 am

1985.49

P&C actuary
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by P&C actuary » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:46 am

LadyGeek wrote:
P&C actuary wrote:2202.99 I don't want to look through the entries. Hopefully this is the first posting.

The top of each thread (just above the first post, below the thread title) contains a search box for the thread "Seach this topic...". Enter your prediction to see if it's already taken. Precedence goes to the first entry.


Thx. That will come in handy in the future. BTW, my guess is unique.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by kaudrey » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:51 am

I'll say 2313.13

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by diverski » Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:36 am

2519.01

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Milo Bloom
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Milo Bloom » Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:55 am

2355.25
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gffisher » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:27 am

2451.52

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by b42 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:46 am

2165.48

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by runner3081 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:26 pm

1984.23

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by stockfuturist » Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:39 pm

2700.00

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Fishing4fun » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:01 pm

2473.13

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by DCChak » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:21 pm

2515.00

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MuchMoore » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:37 pm

2,643.59

Raunholt
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Raunholt » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:56 pm

2500.01

LateStarter1975
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LateStarter1975 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:02 pm

2283.77
Debt is dangerous...simple is beautiful

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by birdwatcher10 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:02 pm

2406.89

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dale_G » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:18 pm

1989.12
Volatility is my friend

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by s2cem » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:42 pm

2009.41

CMHBuckeye
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by CMHBuckeye » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:33 pm

2622.36

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by czeckers » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:46 pm

$1888.88
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jriding » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:51 pm

2168.47

chicagoan23
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by chicagoan23 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:07 pm

Ending value: 2557.57

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JerryK
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JerryK » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:18 pm

2451.22

mister37
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mister37 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:23 pm

2337.37
Signature loading in 3,2,1.......

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by WendyW » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:32 pm

2478.78

amitb00
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by amitb00 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:34 pm

2540.20

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mortalsonofmortal » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:14 pm

My guess is 2434

timmydink
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by timmydink » Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:19 pm

2078.17

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by amarone » Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:26 pm

2254.4

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by moneyball » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:07 pm

2383.5

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Tortoise Banker » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:19 pm

2337 :)
The winning strategy is simple, but not easy...

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by boo-yah » Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:39 pm

2567.93

rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:03 am

BarryZuckerkorn wrote:20592.62


BarryZuckerkorn - did you mean to guess 20,592.62?

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:04 am

madbrain wrote:36,000


madbrain - did you mean to guess 36,000?

Dicast
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dicast » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:32 am

2610.50

GreedHateJealousy
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by GreedHateJealousy » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:36 am

2402.84

rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:06 am

Thanks The Dan for posting the graph earlier.
Here is a graph showing guesses through page 10, excluding BarryZuckerkorn (20592.62) and madbrain (36,000).

Image
Last edited by rarvesen on Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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JamalJones
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JamalJones » Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:44 am

1816.6
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:53 am

2042.37

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rustymutt
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rustymutt » Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:02 am

2092.00
Knowledge is knowing that the Tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is knowing better than to put the tomato in a fruit salad.

Durzo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Durzo » Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:27 am

2462.95

marvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by marvesen » Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:07 pm

2446.21

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by karvesen » Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:08 pm

2474.97

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by shipwreck » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:04 pm

2519.13

McGilicutty
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by McGilicutty » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:10 pm

3013.39

lazydavid
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by lazydavid » Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:03 pm

2339.85

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